Monday 6/16 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Phillies @ Marlins

Mick Abel walked none of the first 41 major league batters he faced with estimators around two and a half and elite pitch modeling. He also had a 61.3 HardHit% and a history of double digit walk rates throughout the minors, including this year in AAA. Abel had a bit tougher time against the Cubs, walking and striking out three of 20 batters with just five hard hit batted balls (35.7%), but three of them were barrels. Five of his last 31 batted balls have been barrels. His pitch modeling against Chicago was well below average. Current estimators now range from a 3.41 Bot ERA to a 5.08 xERA, all more than a run above his 2.35 ERA with a 100% strand rate.

Do you think Sandy Alcantara has finally found it after 12 innings of two run ball with 10 Ks, two walks and a 55.9 GB% without a barrel and 17.6 HardHit%? Or do you think he just faced the Rockies and Pirates? Sandy posted a 2.35 Bot ERA and Pitching+ above 110 in each of the two starts, significant improvement to his season rate and his best Bot ERAs in any starts this season, but he has had similar quality Pitching+ performances. Overall, pitch modeling has liked Alcantara’s season so far, while other estimators range from a 4.50 xFIP to a 4.72 SIERA that pretty tightly explains who he’s been. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .360 against him with RHBs more than 50 points lower.

Two strong outings against the worst offenses in the National League doesn’t convince me to jump on th Alcantara bandwagon yet. We’ll have to see how he does against the Phillies. Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber and to lesser extents, Nick Castellanos and Max Kepler stand out as having strong pitch run value matchups against his arsenal. I also think a cost of $8.5K or more is a bit extravagant for Abel too.

Rockies @ Nationals

Carson Palmquist has posted estimators no lower than a 4.86 Bot ERA and next to that a 5.49 dERA through five starts, which is terrible no matter who you’re facing, but listen to this list of opponents to start his career: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Giants. That’s about as rough an introduction to the league as you’re going to get. How much does a 2.8 K-BB%, 28 GB% and 13.3% Barrels/BBE really mean? At least his hard hit rate (38.2%) is league average. Additionally, his velocity has dropped in each start to 89.3 mph last time out after averaging 91.1 mph at AAA this season, but 90.5 mph at AAA last year. The pitch modeling is poor and his pitch matchup rating is easily worst on the board. However, his one positive (or break even) pitch is a slider the Nationals struggle to hit (-0.88 wSL/C).

Jake Irvin’s ERA finally slipped above four two starts back and this may be his last opportunity to drop it back down below again. While there’s some discrepancy in the pitch modeling (3.77 Bot ERA, 94 Pitching+), all other estimators are still more than 0.48 runs worse than actual results with just an 8.2 K-BB% and only 13 of his 35 barrels leaving the park (45.8 HardHit%). LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA  against him over the last calendar year.

Palmquist is an easy pass. We want bats here with the top four in the projected lineup (Call – Wood – Abrams – Garcia) all with tremendous pitch run value matchups against Palmquist’s small sample. I also believe Irvin is one of the few pitchers I wouldn’t recommend against the Rockies on the road, who actually have a 114 wRC+ over the last seven days. As a matter of fact, Estrada, Beck and Freeman pop a bit against his arsenal via pitch run values. The Nationals have just an 81 wRC+ against LHP, a worse defense and similar bullpen estimators over the last 30 days. If Jake Irvin is your most significant advantage in a game right now, you’re probably not worthy of being such large favorites (+168). For what it's worth, the Rockies also have a large base running edge against the Nationals, who were swept at home by the Marlins over the weekend. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Angels @ Yankees

I wrote this the last time Jose Soriano pitched…

“While Jose Soriano generally does the opposite of whatever I expect, a 4.7 K-BB% (-4.2% last four) and 44.7 HardHit% are probably not going to help much, even with a 65.8 GB%. I mean, he’s still allowed 16 barrels and has been extremely fortunate that just three have left the yard (all three at home in six starts). Soriano’s 4.11 ERA is pretty much where his estimators average out, despite a fairly wide range with batters from either side of the plate within two points of a .320 xwOBA against him since last year.”

And BOY was I right…about the first part of the first sentence. Soriano, who struck out 12 of 25 A’s through seven two hit innings will do the opposite of whatever you expect. Was this a breakout? No. Although his 98 mph average velocity was a season high and a mph above his season average, he generated 16 of his 23 whiffs on a sinker that did gain movement along with velocity, but still posted the same pitch modeling marks that it has all season. If he’s able to keep this velocity and movement, it may be something worth watching, but I’m done predicting Soriano for a while.

Clarke Schmidt has only allowed more than three runs once this season (second start in Cleveland) and has five quality starts in his last seven attempts (one out away from six) with a 16.8 K-BB% over that span. He’s also allowed just six barrels (5.8%) with 31.7 HardHit% during this run as well. Schmidt’s season estimators widely range from a 2.95 xERA to a 4.33 dERA, but aside from those two outliers, the rest sit between 3.73 FIP and 4.00 SIERA. He should do well against a predominantly right-handed LAA lineup (.239 wOBA, .277 xwOBA against Schmidit last 365 days).

I’m not buying on Soriano yet, but will say that if you do, he’s only $7K on DK on a small slate. Judge and Chisholm pop largely against Soriano’s mostly sinker/curveball profile (Rice a bit too). Do with that what you will. Clarke Schmidt is my top pitcher and value on the slate. Every projected Angel except O’Hoppe project negative against Schmidt’s profile. Schmidt does throw a knucklecurve, so perhaps O’Hoppe’s massively outlier against that pitch will come back to earth a bit after this matchup, but he’s been popping against anyone with a curveball since I dreamt up this metric.

Orioles @ Rays

Over his last three starts, Zach Eflin seems to have finally found his footing: 19.2 IP, 76 BF, 4 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 18 K, 10.6 SwStr%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE, 39.3 HardHit%. With such a poor and possibly injury riddled start, Eflin still has a 4.00 ERA that’s within a quarter run of most estimators, the two exceptions being a 4.68 FIP and 3.46 xERA with two-thirds of his barrels leaving the park. Eflin’s velocity is up a half mph with a quarter run improvement in Bot ERA over these last three starts, but with the same 100 Pitching+. He has increased his changeup usage from 10.4% over his first five starts to 23.9% over his last four. It does grade above average by either pitch modeling system and is his best pitch via PB (59). He's also faced some heavily left-handed lineups over this span.

Ryan Pepiot has allowed five runs over his last 11.2 innings with three home runs on three barrels (12.5%), but only a 37.5 HardHit% and nine strikeouts (17.2 SwStr%). The velocity was up to a season high 95.9 mph last time out, but Pepiot also threw just 9.3% sliders last time out, his second lowest mark of the season, in favor of more cutters. It may have just been an adjustment against a divisional opponent he’s seeing for the second time, but he also struck out eight in his previous start against the Rangers, while going more slider heavy at his regular season velocity. Overall, Pepiot’s 15.2 K-BB% and 9.2% Barrels/BBE are pretty mediocre stuff and he can thank an 83.1% strand rate for a 3.31 ERA that is in line with his pitch modeling (3.09 Bot ERA, 110 Pitching+), but more than half a run below his 3.94 SIERA, xFIP and dERA, which are very specific and only barely below his 4.11 xERA.

What we know so far is that Steinbrenner Field has surprisingly played as a perfectly neutral run environment so far. Eflin would be my third favorite pitcher overall and a marginal value, though close enough that some guys behind him could catch up with the right changes to weather, lineup or umpiring. No projected Ray stands out either way from pitch run value matchups. Pepiot is actually the pitcher closest to Eflin and I’d actually call him a 3B to Eflin’s 3A. He’s more expensive on FanDuel, but less expensive than Eflin on DraftKings. In his case, Cedric Mullins grades well against Pepiot’s arsenal.

Bullpen stats L30 days

Red Sox @ Mariners

Velocity up to a season high 94.1 mph, Lucas Giolito is coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Rays, but he only struck out four and has had some other strong starts this season. Since allowing three runs in his return from TJS, Giolito has allowed at least six runs three times, but a total of three runs (two earned) over his other four starts. Good luck figuring out which Giolito your going to get, but he has a 6.7 K-BB% and 50 HardHit% over his last five starts, striking out more than four just once in that span. Encouraging outing, but not a totally convincing one. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .330 wOBA and exceed a .350 xwOBA against him.

Logan Gilbert last pitched in April. His numbers were elite with only his Bot ERA (3.01) barely reaching three among her estimators and his 2.84 dERA over two and a half. A 32.5 K-BB% with 51.5% of his contact on the ground may not be sustainable. He struck out 11 of 43 with four walks and two hit batters in three rehab starts, facing 17 batters last time out.

Workload limitations and price are my concerns with Gilbert at his highest cost on the board. The Red Sox will strike out some and are now without Devers. Giolito is fine, if volatile, on this slate, in this park, which increases strikeouts. He’s part of the group of guys who could pass Pepiot/Eflin under the right circumstances. Crawford, Canzone and Raleigh hit what Giolito throws pretty well.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Astros @ Athletics

Lance McCullers Jr. regressed in his progress against the White Sox last time out, striking out six of 23 White Sox, but also walking four and allowing four runs over five innings. He allowed two more barrels (10.3% on the year) with a 53.8 HardHit% on the season, the latter exactly matching his season rate. McCullers even threw a season high 43.8% sliders against the White Sox, but was down about a mph on his sinker and slider, generating a 9.4 SwStr%. Seven starts into his season, McCullers has double digit walk (11.7%) and barrel (10.4%) rates with a 28.5 K%, but league average 10.3 SwStr% (career low), which may not be able to support it. RHBs have a .416 wOBA and .371 xwOBA against him with LHBs below .300.

After striking out just 12.5% of his previous 152 batters, J.P. Sears (unconfirmed) struck out a season high nine of 20 Angels last time out, throwing a season high 19.5% sinkers and finally pulled back on his sweeper usage to RHBs. Despite the 9.0% Barrels/BBE and 18.7 K%, Sears still posts a 4.08 xERA, partially because he doesn’t walk anybody (4.5%). However, all other estimators, except for a 3.77 Bot ERA, are higher than that. RHBs have a .349 wOBA and .335 xwOBA against Sears over the last calendar year and Astros smoked him for nine runs and three home runs in 3.1 innings not too far back.

Sears is unconfirmed, so there is no market on this game yet. From a daily fantasy perspective, it’s hard to go anywhere except bats in the most dangerous park in the league. Jacob Wilson and Jeremy Pena stand out most against the arsenals of the opposing pitchers.

Padres @ Dodgers

Dylan Cease has essentially had his best two starts against the Yankees and Dodgers and stunk against everyone else. Not exactly, but why ruin a crazy story. Seriously, he’s struck out 20 of 53 Yankees and Dodgers with one run over 13.2 innings, but still has a 4.28 ERA. Yes, the estimators are FAR better, all more than half a run better, running as low as a 3.10 FIP and 3.22 xFIP. There’s been some fortune with just eight of 21 barrels leaving the park, but a 20.9 K-BB% still keeps 10.8% Barrels/BBE well below a four xERA. LHBs have been a bit of an issue for Cease over the last calendar year (.301 wOBA, .321 xwOBA) with RHBs below .275.

This was a Ben Casparius start and stretch out when I started tonight, which was exciting enough with how he’s pitched in mostly long relief (44 innings over 22 appearances), but why not add in Shohei Ohtani’s first rehab start as well. I guess the upside is that Casparius is more likely to pitch the fifth inning with a win opportunity behind him. I have no idea what to expect from Ohtani, other than a short outing. Thing Senga during the post-season in terms of length. Behind him, Casparius has the best pitch modeling on the board with his 2.90 Bot ERA matching a 2.98 ERA and 2.88 xERA.

I know all the hype is on the Dodger side of this matchup, but I can’t trust Casparius’s workload to return much value on a price tag of $6K or more, especially against the contact prone Padres. This is a matchup you really can’t do much with for daily fantasy purposes. Cease is my second favorite pitcher and value on the board. Not because he’s shined only in the toughest matchups this year, but because he has massive strikeout upside that nobody else on the slate comes close to matching, except for maybe Logan Gilbert who won’t be on a full workload most likely