Friday 6/13 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Pirates @ Cubs

Paul Skenes has done no worse than a 24 K-BB% in any of his last five starts.

Cade Horton is fortunate that just four of his 12 barrels (12.2%) have left the yard, but all non-pitch modeling estimators are still within 0.15 runs of his 4.11 ERA.

Blue Jays @ Phillies

Following up 15 innings of one run ball with 15 strikeouts and now walks, Kevin Gausman has 12 of his last 48, but with five walks and six runs over 10.2 innings. He’s shown flashes of the splitter returning with a 67 PitchingBot and 118 Pitching+, but about 10 points up from their previous season grades. And his velocity has averaged at least 94.5 mph in four of his last five starts (94.4 on the year) over which he has a 13.5 SwStr%. Despite the 3.87 ERA that’s exceeded by a 4.01 dERA, all other estimators are more than a quarter run better than actual results.

Ranger Suarez last six starts: 39.2 IP – 7 runs (six earned) – 54.4 GB% - 2 barrels (1.7%) – 27 HardHit%.

The 14.6 K-BB% over this span isn’t anything special, but will get the job done. However, he’s struck out just seven of his last 51 batters (Pirates, Brewers) with a 7.2 SwStr% and full mph drop in velocity. Better offenses may have done more damage and the Blue Jays have been destroying LHP this year.

In short, I make this game close to even with the Blue Jays, if anyone, favored slightly. Gausman has been moving in the right direction even if I still have him one-fifth of a run worse than Suarez, but then if you look at the colorful numbers supplied to you today, the Blue Jays have significant offensive (w/o Harper), defensive and bullpen edges here. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Marlins @ Nationals

Psst…Edward Cabrera has walked just 10 of his last 128 batters. He also has a 21.8 K-BB% over his last four starts, which only consist of 20.1 innings because the Marlins are keeping him below 90 pitches, but I think he’s found it. Without sacrificing any velocity, his botCommand has gone from no higher than 50 in any of his first four starts to no lower than 50 in any of his last six. Cabrera’s Command+ has risen from 91 to 106 over the same spans. And even if Cabrera hasn’t found it, the struggling Nationals (51 wRC+ L7 days) may not be the ones to make him pay.

Mitchell Parker threw his first quality start in nine tries last time out and has been a bit unfortunate with a 14.4 K-BB% over his last six starts. I say unfortunate expecting his 61.5 HardHit% over that span to regress. His velocity is trending up half a mph over this span as well, so maybe better things are coming. At least he doesn’t have an estimator reaching five and he matches up pretty well with the Marlins on the pitch matchup ratings chart below.

I did not have very much positive to say about Parker, but we may have one quality pitcher facing on below average and one awful offense facing a below average pitcher with neutral weather expected in Washington (though perhaps rain) on Friday. I’m leaning towards this game staying under 9 (-112).

Angels @ Orioles

Charlie Morton has been pitching well over his previous 20 innings before blowing up in Sacremento last time out. Even if it’s a park thing, his best game in that batch was against the White Sox. While I don’t hate punting Morton with your SP2 on DK ($6.3) in a decent spot (7 in LAA proj. LU > 23.5 K% vs RHP since last year), I strongly prefer bats to arms here and will probably get into that a bit more on Friday afternoon.

Reds @ Tigers

Seven of Nick Martinez’s last eight have been quality starts with just a 12.2 K-BB%, but 4.7% Barrels/BBE and a 31.5 HardHit%.

No market on this game as the Tigers have not supplied a name yet, but it would be the Keider Montero bulk spot. His velocity has been ticking up and he allowed just four hard hit batted balls to the Cubs last time out (22.2%), but three of them were barrels that left the yard. His 4.05 Bot ERA is Montero’s only estimator below his 4.30 ERA, but he’s still near the bottom of the board by pure pitch run value matchups.

Rays @ Mets

Taj Bradley…

Exactly seven strikeouts in each of his first three starts.

Struck out just nine of his next 101 batters.

Next five starts, 27.9 K%, including 10 Astros two starts back.

Struck out two Marlins to follow that up last time out.

Clay Holmes posted a 19.1 K-BB% over his first four starts, but only totaled 19.1 innings. He’s one out shy of recording at least six innings in eight of his last nine, but with an 11.7 K-BB% and 46 HardHit%, where he’s allowed 9.2% Barrels/BBE even with a 55.3 GB%. A .245 BABIP and 90.2 LOB% over that span, but as I tweeted (blue skied?) yesterday, the Mets and Rays are the only two teams to have their starting pitchers top five in both BABIP and strand rate each of the last two years. Somebody is going to write about how Mets pitchers have crushed their estimators for two seasons straight now.

Yankees @ Red Sox

With a 31.7 K-BB% and three runs allowed in 17 innings against the Rangers, Angels and Dodgers, Yankee fans thought they had made an Ace out of Ryan Yarbrough until theses Red Sox popped him for eight runs last time out. Yeah, the 55.6 HardHit% in that game is something new for Yarbrough (30.5% on the season and never above 31% in a season, but he still had a 10.4 SwStr% in that start and healthy 14.5% over his last four starts. Will he sustain that? Probably not, but he has done it and doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator reaching four this season.

Garrett Crochet was torched for five runs in that game too, the first time he’d allowed more than two since April 24^th. Interestingly enough, he struck out nine in both of those starts, but this time he only walked one, not five. That April 24^th start at home against the Mariners is where he made the comment about trying to hard to pitch instead of just throwing. Never the less, PitchersList noted that his fastball has actually been better in his last two starts, increasing his extension to near where it was last year.

Early DFS preview, Crochet is my top overall arm and a decent value, though not my favorite. The pitcher whose strikeout prop I played was Yarbrough though. In addition to what’s stated above, every single projected bat in the Boston lineup has at least a 22.9 K% against LHP since last year.

Rockies @ Braves

Bryce Elder struck out 12 of 27 Giants last time out with just an 11.2 SwStr% and has only struck out more than four in two other starts. I see this as more of an outlier than the start of anything. He’ll have to prove me wrong and I’m not sure he can do that against the Rockies. At home, that automatically boost him into at least the top third of the board.

White Sox @ Rangers

Adrian Houser is up 1.5 mph from last season and a full mph over his career. He’s struck out six with one walk in six innings in three straight starts. Houser has always performed decently against RHBs (.299 wOBA, .300 xwOBA since last year). I don’t know if this lasts, but the 89 LOB% won’t.

Jacob deGrom has been pushed back to Saturday. Roster Resource has Dane Dunning listed for Saturday. He would be on regular rest here, but it’s not official. No market on this game yet.

Athletics @ Royals

I guess Sacramento is going to be one of those extreme parks like Coors and T-Mobile where we have to look at pitcher’s home/road splits more closely. Severino has just a 0.8 point increase in K-BB% and 0.17 point xFIP drop on the road this year, but his wOBA goes from .356 to .217 and his FIP from 4.31 to 2.76 on the road. All six of his home runs on nine of his 13 barrels have occurred in Sacremento, where he’s made nine of his 14 starts. And where does he pitch on Friday night, but one of the most power suppressing parks in the league. He’s been far from great or even as good as last year, but all of Severino’s estimators are below his 4.77 ERA.

On the other hand, Michael Wacha’s 80.6 LOB% is due regression, while he’s allowed just two home runs on eight barrels at home. He’s been fine (3.63 FIP, 3.69 Bot ERA, 3.73 xERA, 4.26 dERA, 4.31 SIERA, 4.34 xFIP), but averaging about a run above his 3.01 ERA.

I still have Wacha the slightly better pitcher here, but the Royals are giving away a large offensive edge to the A’s. They do make up most of that in the bullpen, but the A’s get back in base running some of what they give away in defense, but it’s not enough to make this line. I’m splitting 1.5u on ATH F5 (+136), full game (+138) and o3.5 (-115).

Twins @ Astros

Chris Paddack has allowed even three runs only once over his last 11 starts and hit the seven inning mark in three of his last six. Yeah, the .217 BABIP and 84 LOB% over this span with just a 12.8 K-BB%. And how has he allowed just 12 barrels (6.5%) with a 44.9 HardHit% and 40.1 GB%?

Colton Gordon has been quite impressive against some of the more middling offenses of the American League (TBR 2x, SEA, KCR, CLE) with a 20.8 K-BB% highlighted by just three walks and 7.8% Barrels/BBE with a 37.7 HardHit%. He’s been a bit unfortunate with four of his six barrels leaving the yard, a .370 BABIP and 71.4 LOB%. His worst non-FIP estimator is a 3.65 FIP with a Bot ERA below three. Pitching+ doesn’t share PitchingBot’s praise, but doesn’t grade him poorly (102) and Gordon doesn’t have the greatest run value matchup against Minnesota mostly because of his own negative run values on the fastball, sinker and slider. Statcast drops Gordon’s .376 wOBA against RHBs to a .315 xwOBA.

Cardinals @ Brewers

Erick Fedde is running a 3.54 ERA with a 4.2 K-BB% and 42.7 HardHit%. Just 30% of his barrels have left the yard with a .258 BABIP. The St Louis defense may have something to do with the latter, so perhaps he won’t regress all the way to estimators all exceeding five except a 4.41 Bot ERA and 4.31 FIP. He does have one of the better pitch matchup ratings with the Brewers, but that’s partially due to Milwaukee’s own failures and entirely based on actual, not expected results.

The majority of Freddy Peralta’s success this year is due more to a 34.5 HardHit%, .247 BABIP and 85.6 LOB%, rather than a high strikeout rate. In fact, Peralta has just an 11.2 K-BB% over his last nine starts and is well below Fedde in the pitch matchup ratings below.

We have two pitchers deserving negative regression, but I’ll still give Peralta a nearly run advantage over Fedde. I’ll also take some back with the better offense and better defense (though both are strong), while bullpens are comparable. This is an uncomfortable half unit on STL (+132).

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Padres @ Diamondbacks

All 15 of Stephen Koleck’s runs have come in a three start stretch, sandwiched by a pair of zeros on either end of his seven starts. However, Koleck has posted just a 7.5 K-BB% and 0.0% in his last three starts with a 48.8 HardHit%, but just five barrels (4.0%) because of his 56.8 GB%. The ground balls help, but can’t hold the strand rate at 78.7% with all that hard contact, while he’s also unlikely to keep the barrel rate THAT low. Koleck’s estimators ranging from a 3.76 xERA to a 4.41 SIERA are fine (though I’d lean towards the larger ones), but nowhere near as spectacular as his 3.00 ERA.

Ryne Nelson lives and dies by the fastball (59.3%) and it’s a good, even great fastball when it works (61 PB, 115 P+), but it did not and was down a mph in velocity last time out. I’m not going to kill him for a one game drop. It happens to most pitchers over the course of a season. Despite the 4.60 ERA, Nelson’s estimators actually average out slightly better than Koleck’s (62.5 LOB%).

I give Nelson the very slight pitching edge, where Arizona also gets small edges for home field and base running (they add up). Defenses are equally average, while the Padres have a significant bullpen advantage, but the D’Backs get all of that back offensively. As I write this, the F5 line has climbed from ARI -120 to -130, which causes me to drop from 1u to 0.5u. But I’ll add another 0.5u on ARI o4.5 (-120).

Guardians @ Mariners

Gavin Williams has thrown 29.4% cutters and just 32.3% fastballs over his last four starts and moving more in the direction of the cutter with each start. His only poor start in the four came against the Dodgers. Ironically, the fastball has been below 96 mph in each of those starts except the Dodgers (97.1), which is about a mph less than his season average (96.8). PitchingBot grades both pitchers perfectly average over this run, but Pitching+ grades the cutter (116) significantly better than the fastball (93). Williams has to get his walk (12.8%) and barrel (10.3%) into single digits and maybe the cutter is how he accomplishes that.

Roster Resource has Luis Castillo listed here, but not confirmed. We finally get him against a predominantly LH lineup (maybe), though not on the road (after realizing the division features SO many RHBs outside Seattle). LHBs are within a point of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and this year, they have a higher wOBA (.331) in Seattle against him than away (.318).

Giants @ Dodgers

Not only is Logan Webb generating 56.7% of his contact on the ground with a 7.2 point increase in hard hit rate (39.8%), but he also just popped double digit strikeouts for the fourth time this year, displaying a career best 23.7 K-BB%. Webb doesn’t have spectacular a pitch matchup rating because the Dodgers have no single pitch weaknesses, but he’s third from the top if you add in pitch modeling and a 3.09 Bot ERA is his only estimator reaching three.

Yoshi Yama nearly matches Webb in all three categories (57.6 GB%, 39.9 HardHit%, 21 K-BB%). Eight quality starts, six with no runs and topping the pitch matchup ratings because the Giants are poor against a number of pitches, most prominently fastballs. You may be shocked to learn I have Webb slightly ahead of Yamamoto despite the matchup because of his 2.7 edge in K-BB% and the fact that he’s pitched into the seventh inning in half of his starts, while Yamamoto has only done it twice.

Daily fantasy notes in the early afternoon.