Thursday 6/12 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Nationals @ Mets

Mike Soroka is coming off six shutout innings against the Rangers, dropping his ERA below five, but still has a long way to regress with a 67.4 LOB% and six home runs on just FOUR BARRELS! Soroka is up to an 18.3 K-BB% with 51.4% of his contact on the ground with all non-FIP estimators more than a run below his actual ERA. Soroka has an xERA below three even.

Kodai Senga (1.59 ERA) is extremely likely to regress in the other direction. In fact. Senga’s 3.30 xERA is his only non-FIP estimator lower than ANY of Soroka’s estimators. Pitch modeling does treat him too poorly though because they can’t properly evaluate the Ghost Fork. The reasons for Senga’s overperformance are a .264 BABIP, 87.5 LOB% and 5.4 HR/FB with just one-third of his barrels leaving the yard. Senga also has just a 12.8 K-BB% on the season, which reduces to 11.7% over his last seven starts. While he is coming off two of his legitimately best starts of the season (19.6 K-BB%), both were against the Rockies.

I guess this is a humble brag, not that the skill has been doing me much good, but I can often just look at the pitchers and having a good enough idea about them by now, know that I’m going to be one side without having looked at the line yet. This was one such obvious spot. Soroka has legitimately been the better pitcher despite the three plus run difference in ERA, causing me to make this line far smaller than +198. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Rangers @ Twins

Patrick Corbin has started 11 games for the Rangers and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a single one. To be fair, he has only completed six innings three times and there’s a .249 BABIP with an 83.1 LOB% involved. He has just a 10 K-BB%, but Corbin’s 35.8 HardHit% is not just his best rate since Arizona, but his first time below 40% since Washington’s championship. Who knows if the 3.93 xERA is as sustainable as additional estimators above four and a half, but this guy wasn’t supposed to have a career and here he is with one the better pitch matchup ratings on the board.  

Five runs seems a bit of a bad luck scenario for Bailey Ober when you see he went seven innings with just seven base runners, but also a .150 BABIP in that start. In fact, he hasn’t struck out more than four in five straight starts, pushing his FIP and xFIP above his 4.26 ERA over that span. He’s not a “velocity” guy, but it has dropped in each of those subsequent starts. It hasn’t stopped him from missing any bats though, as you can see in the ridiculous K/SwStr chart. It’s been an issue of putting batters away for some reason. A K/SwStr below 1.5 is unheard of. I mean, I’ve never seen it over an extended period, especially with an above average SwStr%.

Giants @ Rockies

Hayden Birdsong has only covered 19 outings in his four starts with 5.1 innings in his second start the season high, though he’s steadily increased pitch counts to 93 last time out. That still only produced 4.1 innings because he walked five Braves. His results (2.55 ERA) have been better than mostly solid estimators (3.59 FIP to 3.97 xFIP) with a pair of outliers in his 4.44 dERA and 4.80 Bot ERA. Pitching+ (96) is not as negative. The main culprits appear to be the bendy stuff (slider & curveball both < 40 PB), but it’s the Rockies. He should be fine, though with temps in the upper 80s expected, this is the first time in a while I’m not showing value on the under at Coors.

Antonio Senzatela’s 6.68 ERA is more than a run above every single one of his estimators except for one and that’s a 7.08 xERA with 10.2% Barrels/BBE despite 52% of his contact on that’s really hard to accomplish. He likely has some positive regression coming, but he could improve by a nearly two runs and still be one of the worst pitchers in the league.

Ugh! The Rockies are a terrible team sending out their worst pitcher. However, they’re facing a league average pitcher at best with a below average offense and atrocious defense. We are at a point in the season where lines are going to be elevated more than they should be on the Rockies. It’s ugly, but the Giants should not be this large of a road favorite in a spot like this against any team in the modern history of the league. The Rockies may be a reasonable play at anything above +160.

Tigers @ Orioles

Tarik Skubal only has a single estimator reaching two and a half (2.93 dERA). Everything else you need to know about him appears in graphics on this page. I doubt anyone’s coming here to learn whether this guy is good or not.

Four straight games without a home run, but Dean “Barrels” Kremer has faced some poor competition and still allowed five barrels. LHBs have a .340 wOBA and .341 xwOBA against him since last year. If this game is on the FanDuel daily fantasy slate, bombs away.

Bullpens L30 days

Yankees @ Royals

The volatile Will Warren has now walked eight of his last 37 batters, allowing 11 of them to score. Oddly, his velocity has been up a mph in these two starts, perhaps leading to his command issues. He did face the competent offenses of the Dodgers and Red Sox in these two starts though. And while the Royals don’t strike out much, they ain’t them. When evaluating Warren’s 5.34 ERA, we need to consider his .324 BABIP, 62.5 LOB% and 18.4 K-BB%, but also 9.9% Barrels/BBE with a 50.3 HardHit%. Yet, his 3.77 xERA, or any other estimator for that matter, reaches four. That’s xERA is the worst of them.

Last season, Seth Lugo skirted estimators with just one quarter of his barrels leaving the park. This year, he’s done it with an 83.1 LOB%, a four point drop in K-BB (11.9%) and 8.4 point jump in hard contact (47.4%). Not only does Lugo have several estimators exceeding four and a half, but his best estimator is more than a quarter of a run worse than Warren’s worst.

It’s rare that I’ll find a spot to back the generally over bet Yankees, but a chaotic pitcher against an overvalued one does seem like it would be the ideal spot (NYY -145 F5). Lugo is also my worst value on the board, while Kansas City’s low strikeout rates push me off Warren, although you need some exposure to every high upside pitcher in multi-entry on a small slate.

Cardinals @ Brewers

Sonny Gray has thrown at least six shutout innings in three of his last four starts and four of his last six, but his strikeouts have gone 10, 5, 10, 5 most recently. Thankfully, we can blame the low K efforts on the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, as he was only below a 13.3 SwStr% in Arizona over his last five starts. Gray is a bit fortunate that none of his last four barrels have left the park and still has some concern against LHBs, but things appear to be going well. A 3.82 xERA is his only estimator above three and a half.

Twenty-three year old Jacob Misiorwoski is one of Milwaukee’s top regarded prospects with a 55 Future Value grade applied by Fangraphs. The fastball is elite with the secondaries potential to be above average and the only question one of command. Misiorhowdoyouspellit’s 12.3 BB% at AAA this year is his lowest mark since 11.9% in low A. It’s not like he’s improved upon that in orer to be called up. He’s walked nine of his last 33 batters. Projections conservatively have him a bit below four and a half.

I guess the same thing with Warren applies here about high upside pitchers on small slates, but this is a scary spot for a pitcher who can’t find the plate. So, the hedging part applies too. Low 60s expected in Milwaukee tomorrow, according to the googlerologist, so roof open or closed, this is likely a negative run environment (92 park run factor average open or closed). Gray is essentially my 1B in a solid spot and a bit cheaper than my 1A.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Pirates @ Cubs

Andrew Heaney has gone eight straight starts with a hard hit rate above 40% (46.8% overall during that span) with 10.1% of his contact being barreled and just a 1.7 K-BB%. He’s enjoyed the fortune of a .252 BABIP and 82 LOB% over these eight starts too. On the season, a 3.65 Bot ERA (93 Pitching+) and 3.84 dERA are his only estimators within a run of his 3.24 ERA. Heaney has a reverse split with LHBs above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, but all batters above .300.

Jameson Taillon’s 14.6 K-BB% is around his career average, but his 35.7 HardHit% is his best mark since Pittsburgh. However, with a 36.3 GB% that’s his second lowest, 10.9% Barrels/BBE is a career high. Still, his 3.74 xERA is his closest estimator to a 3.54 ERA with most additional estimators above four, the lone dissenter being a 3.19 Bot ERA (105 P+). PitchingBot grades everything Taillon has thrown more than five percent of the time above 55. The .207 BABIP and 83.3 LOB% have to regress. It’s amazing that he’s already allowed 16 home runs, considering the pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley this year.

And we’re likely looking at pitcher friendly again. Just how friendly, I can’t tell. DraftKings doesn’t even post Wrigley totals the night before. Taillon is my number three overall in a great spot with a caveat. The worse the weather, the better he looks, though I don’t think he can catch the top two on Thursday. Gonzales and Davis stand out as having strong pitch run value matchups against him, but everyone else is in the negative.

White Sox @ Astros

Five straight starts of at least six innings for Davis Martin, only one of them with more than two runs, despite 11.3% Barrels/BBE and a 46.4 HardHit%. Mabye its because 49.5% of his contact has been on the ground during this time, but he’s also running a .209 BABIP and 88.5 LOB%. On the season, estimators ranging from a 4.05 Bot ERA  to a 5.54 xERA, exceed his 3.64 ERA. RHBs have a .341 wOBA and .332 xwOBA against him since last year, which his important to know against Houston. Cam Smith is the projected Astro with a decently positive pitch run value matchup against Martin though.

Framber Valdez has posted a quality start in 10 of his 13 attempts, only one with more than two runs. His 21.3 K-BB% over his last six starts has him up to 17% of the year. A 66.3 GB% over that span has him up to 58.9%. Despite a 46.2 HardHit%, Valdez has allowed just  7.2% Barrels/BBE. He’s gone at least seven innings in five of his last six and seven of 13 overall.

Valdez is my obvious 1A. Beni and Taylor are the only projected White Sox with even minor positive pitch run value matchups against him.