Wednesday 6/11 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Marlins @ Pirates

Don’t look now, but Cal Quantrill has allowed just 10 runs over his last 24 innings with a 15.3 K-BB%, 7.6% Barrels/BBE and 38 HardHit%. He’s featured more sinkers, but I don’t see how that would boost his strikeouts.

Bailey Falter has also allowed just eight runs (seven earned) over his last 39.1 innings, but with a 4.0 K-BB%, 5.3% Barrels/BBE and 40.7 HardHit%. This is more about a .188 BABIP, 81.5 LOB% and just one of his six barrels leaving the park over this span. Pittsburgh does suppress RH power, so perhaps you’re buying the 3.48 FIP in this spot.

I don’t even want to think about a mid-week noon start between these two teams, featuring these two pitchers, but here we are and my play is the same as Tuesday (u8.5 100) and for similar reasons. From Action Network (follow Rocky Jade):

“PIT 87/87/90 wRC+ Hm/v RHP/L7 days, MIA 96/96/75 - PIT strong defense - MIA 3rd best team bullpen estimators L30 days, PIT top half of league too”

That middle Miami number drops 15 points against LHP and this may be the best either of these pitchers have ever thrown the ball over a sustained period.

Cubs @ Phillies

Ben Brown is up to a 20.6 K-BB% with a 27.4% mark over his last five starts, which is a bigger deal for him than most other pitchers because his contact profile remains horrid (12.8% Barrels/BBE, 48.8 Hard% over this span – see below for season numbers). He still refuses to throw anything but fastballs and curveballs, which probably pay into his .368 BABIP and 65.3 LOB%. Yet, it’s still true that even his 4.23 xERA is more than a run below 5.37 ERA with additional estimators even a run below that. Good news for him is that the Phillies are below average against curveballs (-0.3 RV/100), without Bryce Harper and just reeling overall right now.

On May 25^th, Jesus Luzardo had just completed a pair of quality start, double digit strikeout games in back to back starts in the two most positive run environments in the league. His 2.15 ERA probably had him in early Cy Young contention. Just 5.2 innings, 41 batters, six strikeouts, five walks and four barrels later and his ERA is now four and a half. The .667 BABIP, 27.5 LOB% and 33.3 HR/FB over this span have skewed his season numbers awfully. There’s positive regression coming, but no more than Brown, who has very similar estimators overall. Luzardo does not match up as well with the Cubs, who are punishing just about everything except fastballs and that’s been his worst pitch by run value.

I knew I was going to be on this game when I first made the Cubs a favorite here and we can certainly expect variance with these two pitchers, meaning I don’t know what to expect from them. However, the Cubs also have the edge in every other aspect of this game and pretty large in most categories. It’s a pleasure getting any plus money number here.

Reds @ Guardians

Apologies, but I just don't have anything interesting to say about this game and would like to get to bed at a reasonable hour, so there may be a few of these afternoon games like this in order to improve content for other games. 

Braves @ Brewers

Spencer Schwellenbach’s strikeouts L5 starts: 3, 3, 11, 11, 4

He’s allowed four runs in thee of those starts (though three unearned)

I’m fascinated by Chad Patrick’s odd approach to pitching (fastballs, sinkers and cutters almost exclusively up in the zone). He has a 22.1 K-BB% and 27.8 HardHit% over his last four starts.

I’m fascinated by Chad Patrick’s odd approach to pitching (fastballs, sinkers and cutters almost exclusively up in the zone). He has a 22.1 K-BB% and 27.8 HardHit% over his last four starts.

Roof may be open with temperatures in the 80s. If it’s closed, I may be interested in yet another under here (if it remains at eight).

Blue Jays @ Cardinals

The Blue Jays are the only team not listing a pitcher for Wednesday. Roster Resource has Eric Lauer, but his last two “bulk’ outings lasted just 13 and nine batters. So, basically, bullpen game most likely.

Things are starting to decline for Matthew Liberatore. He has a 16.5 K% over his last five starts, but that’s still okay with a 3.3 BB%. However, he’s allowed 12 runs (11 earned) over his last nine innings with EIGHT barrels (22.9%), while his velocity is down slightly.

I’d like to be more clear about what the Blue Jays are doing here (I’d rather bullpen game than some rando from AAA), but would have this game even if we’re only getting Lauer for a couple of innings. Which means, I would probably have interest in the Blue Jays at +120 or better, but will wait. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. 

Update: MLB now listing Lauer. Expect mostly a bullpen effort here after a few innings. Grabbed TOR +126. 

Mariners @ Diamondbacks

Might as well use Tuesday’s blurb here again:  

Bryan Woo has struck out just nine of his last 51 batters (Orioles, Twins) with five barrels. Amazingly, his K-BB% is 4.1 points higher on the road this year with a half run lower xFIP, but no wOBA split on the road. A very tough matchup leaves him just outside the top third of the pitch matchup ratings that doesn’t even factor in the large park downgrade for him. A fastball heavy pitcher will be facing an offense that crushes fastballs (0.86 wFA/C is second to the Yankees 0.88). I’m a bit concerned for this spot.

Eduardo Rodriguez has started 10 games and 33 of his 55 strikeouts have come in just three of them. Traditional estimators ranging from a 3.87 SIERA to a 4.30 FIP suggest he’s due a ton of positive regression, but the last graphic below suggest it may not be today.

I’m a bit borderline on this total. Arizona already posted a closed roof on their website. I certainly want to make sure Raleigh is playing a day game after night if I’m going to even think about it.

Athletics @ Angels

I really don’t have much positive to say about either of these pitchers. J.P. Sears has a matching 5.21 ERA and 5.31 FIP, though a 4.26 xERA and 3.75 Bot ERA suggest he deserves better. The pitch matchup ratings do not believe it’s a positive spot for because basically only lineups with LHBs to succumb to his sweeper are good matchups for him. None the less, getting out of Sacramento should help some.

Kyle Hendricks has a slightly better xERA (4.18) with 9.4% Barrels/BBE no less. He also has nearly the same Bot ERA (3.77) with only one other estimator below five (4.87 SIERA).

There’s really not a lot of positive in either of these pitchers, but I think the recent month long swoon the A’s have had is weighing on this line. While both teams have similarly awful defenses and bullpens, the A’s have a far better offense and base runners. I’ll take the dog price here (+110).  

Dodgers @ Padres

Despite allowing a total of 12 runs, the Dodgers have left Justin Wrobleski out there to face 26 batters in each of his two starts. That’s all I have here.

With a 1.1 K-BB%, Randy Vasquez is still running a 3.69 ERA more than a run and a half below almost all of his estimators, the lone exception a 4.11 Bot ERA. LHBs remain above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

Tigers @ Orioles

Casey Mize is off a pair of awful divisional road starts (White Sox, Royals) in which he struck out one more than he walked with a 30 GB% and 54.8 HardHit%.

Zach Eflin looks to finally be in a rhythm, striking out 13 of his last 50 with one walk.

I know realize after short changing this game I have little interest in that it will probably end up being on the FanDuel main slate, but since it’s not up yet, I’ve set up to follow the DraftKings slate.

Nationals @ Mets

Jake Irvin’s ERA finally slipped above four in his last start. While there’s some discrepancy in the pitch modeling (3.68 Bot ERA, 96 Pitching+), all other estimators are still more than one-third of a run worse than actual results with just an 8.5 K-BB% and only 11 of his 30 barrels leaving the park (45.1 HardHit%). He gets a park upgrade, but is still in an awful spot, while LHBs have a .336 wOBA and .358 xwOBA against him since last year. Lindor and Alonso stand out most against his particular arsenal of mostly fastballs and curveballs.

David Peterson tied a season high, allowing three earned runs to the Dodgers in seven innings last time out. Is he actually, legitimately good now? His estimators are starting to think so. With one exception, they range from a 3.20 FIP to a 3.77 xERA, supported by a league average 13.4 K-BB% (16.3% L3 starts), but 56.9 GB%, which has suppressed barrels (5.9%), despite a 46.8 HardHit%. He’s pitching deeper into games, one out shy of six innings in six straight starts (seven in two of his last three) and two batters shy of at least 26 batters in each of those starts too. Peterson also has a nice pitch matchup rating by run values against Washington with only Call and Woods slightly positive. The issue, as we can also see below, is pitch modeling. PitchingBot thinks everything he throws is “meh” (grades range from 45 FB to 55 CU), while Pitching+ grades the slider at 100, the sinker 96 and everything else below 90.

I’m attacking Irvin on this slate and somewhat neutral on Peterson at a high price. I have two clear top arms on the slate (they won’t surprise) with another three I would call slate specific top five with very little separation on the three. Peterson’s strengths would be workload, park and run suppression far ahead of strikeout potential in this spot.

Rays @ Red Sox

When did Zach Littell become a workhorse? A complete game two starts back and at least seven innings three times in his last seven. He has nine quality starts in 13 tries. What allows him to pitch deep into games though, is that he strikes out just 16.3% of batters and walks just 3.4%. He doesn’t even manage contact particularly well (11.8% Barrels/BBE, 42.1 HardHit%). He just doesn’t walk anyone and owes an ERA more than half a run below every estimator except for a 3.82 dERA to an 86.3 LOB%. The pitch modeling is terrible and the matchup slightly unfavorable from a run value standpoint before you even get to the park. Devers and Toro have the best run value matchups against his arsenal.

Walker Buehler’s 12.5 K-BB% and 38 HardHit% suggest some positive regression, but even best case scenario has his SIERA and xFIP in the low fours with additional estimators far worse. His fastball, curveball and changeup all grade poorly and are being smashed. His cutter grades strongly and is being smashed. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him since returning from Tommy John. Well no particular Ray except maybe Jonathan Aranda stands out against his arsenal, they all grade positively via pitch run values against Buehler.

With weather in Boston expected to be neutral via the early google forecast, we want bats here and can probably safely ignore arms. Littell is more risk than upside.

Rangers @ Twins

Back to back strong starts for Jack Leiter (10.2 IP – 41 BF – 6 H – 1 R – 1 HR – 3 BB – 12 K). That he’s done this with an 8.0 SwStr% and 56 HardHit% makes it less impressive, but maybe the lack of walks is really the most impressive thing. Is this the beginning of something or just another layer of Leiter’s volatility? I don’t know. The pitch modeling is average, but he doesn’t have another non-FIP estimator below four and a half, while batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .350 xwOBA against him since last year. He does match up fairly well against the Twins with only Matt Wallner standing out by pitch run values, but this is not a lineup with a lot of strikeouts.

David Festa hasn’t completed five innings in any of his four starts. He does have a 28 K%, but has also allowed six barrels (13.3%) with a 44.4 HardHit% and 9.3 BB%. RHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career.

Watch the weather in Minnesota. Neither of these pitchers is high on my list, but both have some upside at reasonable prices and limited workloads. On a small slate you can sprinkle in some of either in multi-entry, but I would also be sure to hedge that with some bats here.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Yankees @ Royals

Clarke Schmidt has struck out a season high eight in two of his last three starts against the Rockies and Guardians and has a 14.3 SwStr% over that span. He’s done a great job limiting hard contact (35.6%), which produces a 3.07 xERA well below every other estimator within a quarter of a run of his 4.04 ERA. Schmidt has a neutral matchup against a Kansas City projected lineup that includes just two batters above a 20.5 K% against RHP since last year.

Seven innings with one run or less in four of Kris Bubic’s last five and in the one he missed, it was only by two outs with nine strikeouts. No, the 86.5 LOB% isn’t sustainable and just three of his 13 barrels have left the yard, but it’s a power suppressing park and he’s only allowed 6.8% Barrels/BBE with a 19.4 K-BB% and 35.6 HardHit%. I don’t care that he’s facing the Yankees, Bubic still has the second best pitch run value matchup on the board to the guy who’s facing the Rockies.

Bubic is my second best arm on Wednesday night and probably behind the top guy in value too, but not much. He’s a very reasonable pivot if ownership dictates it. Aaron Judge is the only projected Yankee with a positive pitch run value matchup among those projected and there are five batters above a 22.5 K% against LHP since last year. Schmidt is in that Peterson group with his main value in hard hit and run suppression at a reasonable, but not cheap, price.

One last thing. I just saw Bubic’s strikeout prop and it’s ridiculous (5.5 +110). At least seven in four of last five with an overall 16.5 SwStr% and at least 24 batted faced in those starts.

White Sox @ Astros

The White Sox have been surging and Sean Burke has been a bit part of that over his last three starts (19 IP, 5 R, 16.4 K-BB%, 31.4 HardHit%). He’s traded a few fastballs for changeups, but he’s not otherwise doing anything much differently. You can see it in his Fangraphs game logs. It’s not the stuff, it’s the command that has improved. His season ERA is down to 4.03. However, that’s mostly due to five unearned runs and a .262 BABIP. Burke does have a 4.38 Bot ERA (95 Pitching+), but no other estimators below five. RHBs gain 60 points of xwOBA compared to actual wOBA against him since last year (important against the Astros) with batters from either side of the plate above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA.

Ryan Gusto last completed five innings on April 23^rd. He’s moved a bit further away from the fastball since returning to the rotation (37.1% vs 51.7% previously) and some of them (sinker, cutter, slider) do grade well, but he still has a marginal pitch matchup rating against one of the worst offenses in the league. LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

I don’t really have the time to search release point changes and dig deeper into why Sean Burke’s command has miraculously improved so much and am not sure if it’s sustainable. He’s a difficult recommendation against Houston, considering that .362 xwOBA by RHBs since last year. I can’t endorse Gusto’s workload either. I guess bats here. Robert and Rojas are the only projected White Sox in negative run value situations in this matchup against Gusto’s normal arsenal, which may include more fastballs than he’s currently throwing. Jeremy Pena stands out most against what Burke throws with Caratini and Paredes averaging more than +1 RV/100 too.

Giants @ Rockies

Eight straight quality starts, five with seven innings and only one with three runs for Robbie Ray. Even more impressively, a 26.4 K-BB% and 39.5 HardHit% with just three barrels (3.9%) over his last five. He’s even mixing in a few more curves and changes over sliders. The crazy thing is that even though pitch modeling has improved over this five game run (3.83 Bot ERA, 97 Pitching+), both systems still like the fastball, while hating everything else. Well, the Rockies don’t hit fastballs, sliders, curveballs or changeups, among the worst offenses in the league against all of those pitches.

Kyle Freeland has been efficient, but not overwhelming in two straight quality starts on the road. Let’s just break it down:

Home .430 wOBA, 10.6 K-BB%, .459 BABIP
Road .298 wOBA, 14.6 K-BB% .298 BABIP

The middle number shows some legit home/road differences, but the latter has to regress at home. Freeland has solid pitch modeling with only one estimator above four, but it’s a big one (4.77 xERA).

A beautiful day in Colorado with temperatures in the mid-70s with a light breeze, but this is still my likely spot for pitching needs on Wednesday. Ray is my top arm and value on the slate and even pushes a bit further ahead of Bubic with a more hitter friendly forecast in Kansas City expected. I also think Freeland is a reasonable choice and strong value, especially at $5K on DK. The Giants strike out a quarter of the time on the road and against LHP with an 84 and 81 wRC+ respectively and now are without Matt Chapman. As mentioned last night, I’ve already played u10.5 here and also like the Rockies at +172. I strongly considered it last night and am a bit disappointed I waited with the line drop, but still see some value at this price.