Tuesday 6/10 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Tigers @ Orioles

Sawyer Gibson-Long had mediocre results with one ground ball and two barrels (58.3 HardHit%) over 16 batters in his return from Tommy John surgery, but amazing pitch modeling and a 14.3 SwStr% are sources of optimism.

This is the one spot I’ve found no information on, other than Roster Resource listing Cade Povich, who has a 5.87 xERA.

Reds @ Guardians

I’d prefer not to spend too much time on Andrew Abbott when I don’t have to and I don’t have to today. A lot of things like a league average SwStr%, 9.2% Barrels/BBE and poor pitch modeling suggest he shouldn’t be good, yet a 2.18 ERA and 27.6 K%.

Nothing special about Slade Cecconi’s numbers for the most part except an awful contact profile, but solid pitch modeling. You can see all that below.

Marlins @ Pirates

Sandy Alcantara is projected here, but not yet confirmed. He’s coming off his best start maybe of the season, but it was against the Rockies in Miami with just four strikeouts. His hard hit rate has declined in four straight starts and the pitch modeling is fine, but all other estimators exceed four and a half.

Mitch Keller has gone at least six innings in 10 of 13 starts with all estimators below his 4.13 ERA, which is better than I thought.

Cubs @ Phillies

After allowing six runs in back to back starts, despite striking out eight in one, Colin Rea worked 5.1 shutout innings behind an opener in Washington last time out without a strikeout. His 3.59 ERA is now more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 4.29 xFIP to a 4.80 xERA (81.1 LOB%).

If you believe Mick Abel is the guy who hasn’t walked any of the 41 batters he’s faced, while pitching to estimators averaging around two and a half with elite pitch modeling through two starts, then the Phillies should be larger than -120 favorites.

If you believe that Mick Abel is the guy with double digit walk rates at every stop in the minors including this year at AAA, whose 63.6 HardHit% through 41 batters scares the hell out of you, while his projections around four and a half are justifiable, then the Cubs are the play.

Or maybe he’s something in between and the line is fine.

Nationals @ Mets

You see it right above you. Mackenzie Gore is the top strikeout pitcher on the board and it’s not even close. He hasn’t allowed a run in two starts. We’re not really talking daily fantasy here yet, but will say that despite the park upgrade, I really don’t love him at his current price in a tough matchup.

Griffin Canning was certainly pitching better than last year, but also carrying a strand rate above 80%. After a rain shortened start against the Dodgers, where some blamed the rain for his poor effort, but it looked like the rain actually saved him from his first beating, Canning did allow a season high five runs to the White Sox (three earned) and seemed to be prime position for a smack of regression facing the Dodgers again on the road. He merely pitched his best game of the season, three hitting them through six shutout innings, striking out seven of 22 batters and even dropping his walk rate to 10.4% with just once. The thing that has made him better is that he has occasionally pitched this well when commanding everything he didn’t last year. The walk and strand rates are still problems, with the latter extremely likely to regress and while the fastball has performed neutrally (run value), it still grades poorly and the Nationals are a decent offense against fastballs, but they struggle against changeups, which has been one of Canning’s best pitches by run value or pitch modeling.

Rays @ Red Sox

Ryan Pepiot tied a season high with eight strikeouts last time out. It’s his third time hitting that number, but just his second time in six starts with more than five (18.8% over that span). His 3.20 ERA is in line with pitch modeling, but with other estimators between four and four and a quarter runs (84 LOB%).

Lucas Giolito’s performance and velocity have been inconsistent through seven starts, allowing at least six runs three times, but only five other runs. He’s struck out three or fewer five times and three of his last four, including a season worst one batter last time out against the Angels, who knocked him out in the second.

Rangers @ Twins

With seven runs in his last 16 innings, Tyler Mahle is starting to see his previous 87.9 LOB% regress. He’s managed contact well enough to keep contact inclusive estimators below four, while pitch modeling LOVES the splitter (61 PitchingBot, 108 Pitching+) and he tops the pitch matchup ratings by pure run value for anyone with more than two starts. Contact neutral estimators are above four though (9.6 K-BB%) and RHBs go from a .288 wOBA to a .354 xwOBA.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is expected to return (unconfirmed). There are reasons he hasn’t pitched in the majors since May 14^th and an injury isn’t one of them. The Statcast board may give you one clue, the pitch modeling below another. Batters from either side are between a .310 and .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

Yankees @ Royals

Max Fried has the worst contact profile of his career (7.3% Barrels/BBE, 39.1 HardHit%) with a 51.8 GB% that’s below his career average and has faced fewer than 24 batters in four of his last five starts with pitch counts all over the place. However, he still has a 3.39 xERA (18.5 K-BB%) with the best pitch modeling of his career. Go figure. For daily fantasy purposes, I have him very much line with Gore. It’s a park downgrade in terms of run environment (I wonder how many people realize that) against a lineup that doesn’t strike out much.

Noah Cameron has a .198 BABIP, 99.1 LOB%, league average hard hit rate and below average pitch modeling. Every pitch he throws less than 20% of the time has great run value numbers, that I would write off as small sample. It’s not that he doesn’t have talent (11.1 SwStr%), it’s just that it’s not what’s causing his results right now with a single digit K-BB% and RHBs owning an xwOBA nearly 100 points higher than their actual wOBA against him.

Braves @ Brewers

Grant Holmes has allowed six runs over nine innings in two home starts against the Red Sox and Diamondbacks most recently, but with a 25.6 K-BB% and just two barrels. In fact, Holmes has posted an 18.4 K-BB% over his last seven starts, which has lessened the blow of a questionable contact profile during this run (11.1% Barrels/BBE, 42.6 HardHit%). Fact is, his 3.99 ERA matches a 3.98 xERA with most of his non-FIP estimators lower. The only dissenter a 4.28 Bot ERA with the fastball and curveball the largest culprits. The Brewers don’t hit fastballs (-0.47 wFA/C) and he only throws the curveball 14.9% of the time and can easily pivot in an otherwise decent spot.

Pitching behind an opener in three of his last four efforts, Quinn Priester has allowed just seven runs in 22.1 innings. That has a bit to do with a .212 BABIP, but also a 65.7 GB% and improved 9.3 K-BB% over that span. The high ground ball rate generates just a 3.35 xFIP during this run, but as he is still regularly allowing hard contact at a clip above 40% still, they’re absolutely necessary to keep his barrel count low. On the season, Priester, very much like Holmes, has a 3.88 ERA aligned with his 3.96 xERA.

Let’s call them a pair of competent starting pitchers, where I have Holmes a bit below four and nearly half a run better than Priester. Atlanta’s 101 wRC+ against RHP is the highest number either team has Hm/Rd/v RHP or L7 days and I may be understating it. Go look up top for yourself. We also have two very strong defenses with the Milwaukee pen owning top third of the league estimators last 30 days, even if Atlanta is struggling. Did you know that Milwaukee has a 92 park run factor (three year Statcast) with the roof open or closed? I think you know where I’m going here and yes it is under 8.5 at even money. Follow the roller coaster ride with Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Blue Jays @ Cardinals

Before Chris Bassitt’s last start against the Phillies, I suggested that even though his struggles against LHBs were real, he was due for some positive regression in his overall numbers…

“With five runs in back to back starts, Chris Bassitt has now allowed 27 runs (one unearned) over his last 43 innings, a span over which LHBs have a .417 wOBA against him with five home runs. However, he also has a reasonable 14.3 K-BB%, 38.6 HardHit% and .338 BABIP with nine of 13 barrrels leaving the park over this stretch. LHBs have a .394 wOBA and 11.9 K-BB% against him and while Fangraphs hard hit rate is not Statcast, a 35.5% mark for LHBs over this run is still decent at worst.”

Bassitt pitched even better than I expected with six innings of one run ball with two walks and six strikeouts, allowing just a pair of hard hit batted balls. His 3.56 ERA is very much inline with all estimators. Within one-fifth of a run of ALL of them as a matter of fact. Still, LHBs have a .370 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against him since last year and we need to be careful. 

Miles Mikolas completed his third quality start in four tries last time out, failing to strike out more than four in any of them or 10 of his 12 starts in total this year. He’s not missed bats with a worse contact profile than usual too (9.2% Barrels/BBE, 42.4 HardHit%). This produces non-FIP estimators between a 4.35 xERA and 4.94 xERA well above his 3.96 ERA (just four of his 20 barrels have left the park). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .328 and .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Mikolas since last year. However, Busch Stadium is still one the most power suppressing parks in the league until it gets hot and he does have one of the top pitch matchup ratings via run values today and that’s pretty much across the board on his arsenal.

Like yesterday, I give Toronto the starting pitching advantage, by nearly a run here. However, the Cardinals have been the better offense and much better base running team with comparable defensive and bullpen numbers. Give them a little bit for being at home too and I’m willing to side with them at any plus money number.

White Sox @ Astros

Shane Smith has pitched well (3.50 dERA to 4.06 Bot ERA), but not as well as his 2.45 ERA with seven of  his 24 runs unearned and the White Sox have cautiously held him below 90 pitches in all but one start. He also has a slight reverse split (RHBs .301 wOBA, .316 xwOBA), a small problem against Houston, who now runs TWO LHBs out there against RHP.

Lance McCullers Jr. has almost entirely dumped his fastball and is pumping sliders in relentlessly, striking out 27 of his last 69 batters with a more impressive 13.1 SwStr%, but also a 58.3 HardHit%. RHBs have a .407 wOBA and .380 xwOBA against him so far.

Giants @ Rockies

I bought into some reports and pitch modeling (63 BotCommand, 120 Location+) last time out and while the Giants came back to beat the Padres, Kyle Harrison was knocked around for five runs in less than five innings. He did leave the game after getting hit with a comebacker, but that was after the damage was done. However, he walked just one and those numbers above include that start. Harrison’s 4.34 ERA compliments his 4.35 xERA, but he has elite pitch modeling this year with all other estimators below four.

Carson Palmquist is coming off his best major league start, striking out eight of 21 Mets, but with just a 7.9 SwStr% and 40 HardHit%, which matches his season average through four starts. Palmquist is not missing bats and has allowed eight barrels so far (12.9%), a terrible combination in addition to a 4.64 Bot ERA that’s his only estimator below five, as he sits at the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings below with or without pitch modeling.

Why in the world would I be backing an under in Coors after the paragraph directly above? Well, Harrison has looked at least competent, possibly better and these have been two awful offenses. Also, while the Giants have been one of the poorer defensive teams overall, their projected lineup has been above average defensively, while they own top five pen estimators over the last 30 days.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Athletics @ Angels

The Athletics have finally confirmed a starting pitcher and it’s Mitch Spence, who allowed one run through five innings an 18 batters, striking out four with a walk in his first start of the year. Sinker, slider, curve for 90% of his pitches and all graded above 60 PB and 110 P+ in the effort. Throwing multiple innings in most of his relief efforts this year, we can put a bit more stock in numbers that suggest Spence has had some contact issues, but with only his xERA above four and one of the top pitch matchup ratings on the board.

While Jose Soriano generally does the opposite of whatever I expect, a 4.7 K-BB% (-4.2% last four) and 44.7 HardHit% are probably not going to help much, even with a 65.8 GB%. I mean, he’s still allowed 16 barrels and has been extremely fortunate that just three have left the yard (all three at home in six starts). Soriano’s 4.11 ERA is pretty much where his estimators average out, despite a fairly wide range with batters from either side of the plate within two points of a .320 xwOBA against him since last year.

Taking Spence’s contact profile into account and dinging him slightly for bullpen work, I still have these pitchers very closely rated. As mentioned on Monday, both have terrible defenses and bullpens with the A’s owning a decent offensive edge with better base running. I’m not sure they should be dogs at all here, nevermind +140.

Dodgers @ Padres

Conflicting reports here. TBD on MLB.com, while I’ve read conflicting reports on Twitter (Matt Sauer) to what Roster Resource has listed (Bobby Miller). Hopeful to sort it out in the morning or afternoon.

While Dylan Cease owns a 4.72 ERA that’s between a run and a run and half above all estimators, he has allowed 11% Barrels/BBE and seemingly only had his best stuff in back to back starts against the Yankees and Angels, failing to complete six innings in nine of his other 11 starts. He’s beginning to develop an issue with LHBs (.333 wOBA this season) refusing to utilize much more than a fastball or slider, both pitches the Dodgers have murdered, which has him near the bottom of our run value based pitch matchup ratings.

Mariners @ Diamondbacks

Bryan Woo has struck out just nine of his last 51 batters (Orioles, Twins) with five barrels. Amazingly, his K-BB% is 4.1 points higher on the road this year with a half run lower xFIP, but no wOBA split on the road. A very tough matchup leaves him just outside the top third of the pitch matchup ratings that doesn’t even factor in the large park downgrade for him. A fastball heavy pitcher will be facing an offense that crushes fastballs (0.86 wFA/C is second to the Yankees 0.88). I’m a bit concerned for this spot.

In an effort to improve against LHBs, Brandon Pfaadt has begun throwing more curveballs (11%) and changeups (17.3%) with the result being LHBs still hammering him (.356 wOBA this year), but RHBs are too now (.355) with a significant drop in pitch modeling confirming results. Pfaadt’s 5.51 ERA is more than a run above most estimators, but a run and a half below his 6.95 xERA with 13.7% Barrels/BBE and a 51.9 HardHit%. Nearly the entire projected Seattle lineup has a neutral or better pitch run value matchup against Pfaadt’s arsenal.

Add in the offensive numbers in the first chart, along with Arizona’s awful bullpen numbers that don’t even include Martinez leaving the game with another injury last night and I think I’ve given a strong case for the over again. Hopefully, the Mariners will score tonight.