Monday 6/8 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Reds @ Guardians

Do I need to apologize for not knowing that Wade Miley was still in the league? He has only thrown nine innings since the start of last season, including a two innings relief outing last week at 89 mph, allowing a home run with a 46.2 HardHit%, but with no walks, strikeouts or barrels. He’s struck out just seven of 63 AAA batters this season and projects around five.

Three of Luis L. Ortiz’s last seven starts have been quality starts with a run or less allowed and he was one out from a fourth in 5.2 shutout innings against the Yankees last time out. The strikeouts have been volatile with seven or more in half of his 12 starts and five or fewer in the other half. He has only had three starts with a single digit SwStr% and none below 8.9%. Command (11.8 BB%) and barrels (10.9%, 49.7 HardHit%) have been his issues. He has command grades of 50 (PitchingBot) and 95 (Pitching+). Despite the volatility, Ortiz’s 4.02 ERA is within one-third of  a run of all estimators except a 4.74 xERA and that’s because just seven of his 18 barrels have left the yard. LHBs have a .304 wOBA, but .360 xwOBA against him since last year.

Let’s start with the fact that the Guardians have a 71 wRC+ and 26.1 K% against LHP. There are generally a ton of strikeouts in the bottom half of that order against LHP. That doesn’t mean I have enough confidence to roster Miley in DFS, but it does mean I will take a shot at +141 and that’s projecting Miley a full run worse than Ortiz. Although the Reds have a 103 wRC+ against RHP, there should be enough upside to consider Ortiz, even for $9.2K on FanDuel. He’s potentially my top FanDuel value (with significant risk) at $1.7K cheaper on DraftKings. Will Benson is the guy in the projected Cincinnati lineup that has hit well against arsenals similar to Ortiz, while Friedl and Elly are the other two bats with positive run value matchups.

Marlins @ Pirates

Eury Perez was getting Paul Skenes hype when he made his major league debut in 2023, but just 19 starts into his rookie season, Perez was shelved and destined for Tommy John surgery. Perez posted a 20.6 K-BB% over those 91.1 innings, though with 15 home runs on 25 barrels (10.7%). He has made just three starts at AAA, totaling 12.1 innings with a 13.2 BB% and 15.1 K-BB%, facing 20 batters in his last start. There shouldn’t be major workload limitations within reasonable expectations and Perez projects for an ERA around four.

I wrote that Mike Burrows might be interesting eventually before his last start and eventually arrived in that outing against Houston. Burrows struck out six of 20 batters without a walk and 57.1 GB%, though 11 of 14 batted balls did reach a 95 mph EV. The 10.7 SwStr% is interesting, though the pitch modeling declined against Houston and is something a bit below average now (4.44 Bot ERA, 98 Pitching+) with a slightly negative matchup against Miami, whether you’re using just run values or adding in pitch modeling. Burrows doesn’t have impressive scouting reports like Perez, but did post a 23.1 K-BB% in 32.1 AAA innings before being called up this year.

Burrows may be cheap enough for an SP2 play on DK ($6K), but there are no Miami projected batters in a negative run value matchup against his arsenal. Remember how small the sample is though, before telling you that Myers, Ramirez and Stowers stand out most. I am concerned with Perez’s control issues so far and he’s not going to go deep into this game, but his upside at $7K on FanDuel is at least interesting in a great spot.

Cubs @ Phillies

With one stinker in Cincinnati, Matthew Boyd not only has quality starts in five of his last six starts, but has done so with 14 runs (13 earned) in 35.1 innings and a 26.8 K-BB% (19.1% on the year). Boyd’s season estimators all exceed his 3.01 ERA, but only his 3.75 xFIP and 3.85 Bot ERA by more than half a run. Pitch modeling does not like the slider that Boyd throws 17.4% of the time, but the Phillies are a bottom third of the league offense against sliders (-0.58 wSL/C) and are missing Bryce Harper, who hits LHP well against a LHP who doesn’t really have a wide split.

Zack Wheeler went on paternity leave and got a few extra days, not having pitched in 10 days, most recently being shelled for a season high six runs by the Braves, despite his best average velocity of the season (96.9 mph). A 32.4 HardHit% and 25.9 K-BB% suggests Wheeler is better than ever, but I wonder if there will be any limitations or rust with the layoff. I don’t expect them, I just wonder. This is not an easy spot, as you can see Chicago’s offensive numbers above.

Add in the slight workload or rust concerns with a tough matchup in a difficult park and Wheeler is only my fourth favorite overall arm on Monday with the volatile Ortiz a bit higher in a better situation. As the most expensive pitcher on the board, I don’t believe Wheeler is a great value, though he is second from the top of our pitch matchup ratings with only a few top half of the lineup bats even in a positive run value situation against his arsenal. I have Boyd barely behind Wheeler, but also too expensive for this spot with Schwarber the only real positive run value matchup against him, mostly due to fastballs. I also see the Cubs with advantages everywhere except starting pitching and Boyd’s recent run of dominance closes that gap as well. I like the Cubs’ chances here at +128.

Rays @ Red Sox

At least three runs in six of seven starts for Shane Baz without a single quality start in the bunch. In all, he’s allowed 28 runs and 10 home runs (15 barrels – 11.9%) with a 6.1 K-BB% in those 36 innings. Baz  is still receiving glowing PitchersList reports and the pitch modeling is around average over this span, but I just can’t find reasons for optimism in the numbers. He has kept half his contact on the ground, but that’s it. Baz is also near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings with RHBs owning a .321 wOBA and .339 xwOBA against him since last year, well above LHBs.

Brayan Bello has also allowed 17 runs (15 earned) over his last 23.2 innings with just two home runs on eight barrels (10%) and a 7.1 K-BB%, while also keeping half his contact on the ground. His rough patch does include the worst version of a quality start last time out (six innings, three runs) with a massive boost to his pitch modeling in that start, including a positive PitchingList review of the effort. Bello is also near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings too though with major issues against LHBs (.356 wOBA, .361 xwOBA since last year).

Most positive run environment on the board, but most pitcher friendly weather with temps in the upper 50s. The top six in Boston’s normal lineup against RHP all score well from run value standpoints against Baz’s arsenal with Abreu at the top (does not take splits into account), while Caballero, J.Lowe and Aranda matchup best against Bello, in that order, with the latter two being left-handed. Despite the pitcher friendly weather, I feel the reward doesn’t meet the risk in rostering either of these pitchers. If Bello can put a few strong ones together, we can reevaluate.

Braves @ Brewers

While Chris Sale has walked seven of his last 49 batters in difficult starts against the Phillies and Diamondbacks, he’s also struck out at least eight in six of his last seven starts and is up to 23.5 K-BB% (below 20 K-BB% in just two starts this year) with a 31.9 HardHit% (only three times above 40% and never hitting 50%). Sale has somehow allowed 9.2% Barrels/BBE with this profile, still generating just a 3.16 xERA that’s his second worst estimator behind pitch modeling (3.59 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+). Pitching+ doesn’t like the fastball (93) and to be honest, it’s been a below average pitch (-0.7 RV/100), but his slider (48.8%, 52 PB, 107 P+) is the top pitch on the board today at a 12 Run Value, which is a counting stat (1.9 RV/100).

Despite allowing just one run over five innings in his previous start, I went with some negative reports about Aaron Civale’s third outing of the season and played against him, feeling pretty confident when he allowed a pair of early runs. However, those were the only runs he allowed with a better report and pitch modeling (though still not reaching league average), striking out a season high five Reds. Civale did lean into the curveball more often (18.2%) with positive grades (55 PB, 118 P+) in this start. He has a marginal matchup against the Braves, considering run values without pitch modeling, but he’s allowed just a 35.8 HardHit% with a 6.8 BB%, compensating for a 19.2 K%. Baldwin and Osuna match up best against his arsenal.

I am going to say two completely different things that can both be true, due to pricing. Sale is Monday night’s top pitcher and he’s also one of my top values at an expensive cost. You could even consider Civale in a punting situation for $6K against a slumping Atlanta lineup and one that’s barely league average against RHP this year, while being below average on the road. Milwaukee has become a more negative run environment in recent years. With offenses fairly comparable and a pair of top defenses this year, it’s Milwaukee’s more than half run pen advantage against another component of this Atlanta club that is struggling where it was supposed to be a strength, that has pushed me over to Milwaukee’s side at +160.

Blue Jays @ Cardinals

Four straight quality starts and six of seven for Jose Berrioes, who has allowed 15 runs over 42 innings with a 15.7 K-BB% over that span, but more than five strikeouts just once in his last five. He’s also allowed 11.6% Barrels/BBE over this 42 inning run (11.3% on the season). Estimators range from a 4.07 xFIP to a 4.85 dERA, well above his 3.67 ERA with an 81.6 LOB%. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .310 and .313 wOBA against Berrios since last year, but a .335 and .341 xwOBA.

Andre Pallante’s 4.91 ERA, 4.95 FIP and 7.4 K-BB% will do your fantasy team no favors. A 4.99 Bot ERA endorses those results as well. However, a 63.4 GB% has some real world value and 11 of his 18 barrels have left the yard, while contact neutral estimators run more than a run better than actual results. Pallante has a reverse split with RHBs owning a .343 wOBA, but just .315 xwOBA against him since last year, which is just as league average as LHBs (.311).

Berrios is cheap enough that it’s fine to have some exposure to a volatile pitcher who can throw a quality start with eight or nine strikeouts, even if it’s not the expectation. Pretty much the entire projected lineup for St Louis matches up marginally against him from a run value perspective, though Nootbaar appears to be in a solid spot. Pallante’s not a fantasy pitcher, but doesn’t match up with anyone except Guerrero and Springer too poorly. This game isn’t a daily fantasy banger, but the pitchers average out similar estimators, while the Cardinals have been the slightly better offense and both teams have been great on defense and in the bullpen. The Cardinals also have a base running edge and are at home, which does have me a bit higher on them than the -104 price tag.

Bullpen L30 days...

Athletics @ Angels

The A’s are no longer listing starting pitchers the night before games. This is Jeffrey Springs’ spot. After being roughed up in Toronto his previous start, Springs faced 27 Twins behind an opener in Sacramento last time out and the results were mixed. He struck out seven with a 38.9 HardHit%, but two barrels and four runs. The K-BB (8.5%) has been up and down and all over, but Springs has maintained a hard hit rate at 35.6%, generating a 4.16 xERA that’s one of two estimators below a 4.66 ERA without any reaching five. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .302 and .322 wOBA and xwOBA since returning from Tommy John last year.

Suddenly, and inside a run that includes the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers, Yusei Kikuchi has walked 18 of his last 99 batters with just 20 strikeouts and an even more disappointing 7.8 SwStr%. He’s down to just a 7.4 K-BB% on the season, spared estimators more than a full run worse than his 3.23 ERA by an 83.3 LOB%. Pitch modeling still likes Kikuchi (3.68 Bot ERA, 103 Pitching+). This has declined to 4.16 and 100 over this four start span, still not terrible. The team did just change his pitch grips, which they only recently noticed were different from last year. With the new old pitch grips, he walked and struck out five Red Sox each last time out.

No market on this game as there hasn’t been on an Oakland game the night prior in about a week. From a daily fantasy standpoint, I can say that Springs is cheap in a great spot and has faced at least 27 batters four times this year. The Angels have a 69 wRC+ and 24.7 K-BB% against LHP. I do not trust Kikuchi with more risk than upside at this point at a middling price point. The top bats against the opposing pitcher’s arsenal this year are Neto, Wilson, Urias and Trout in that order.  

Dodgers @ Padres

Before Dustin May’s last start, I wrote the following, summarizing that I was impressed, but not yet convinced by his recent turnaround…

Striking out 25 of his last 68 batters after just 33 of his first 166, Dustin May is up to a 24.8 K% and 16.2 K-BB%. His SwStr rate has gone from 8.7% to just 10.6% over these last three starts, not enough to sustain the strikeout spike as you see on the K/SwStr chart. He’s chosen to increase his slider usage to 44% over this span, seven percentage points more than his sinker, while going 17.8% cutters against an almost entirely left-handed Cleveland lineup last time out. However, LHBs aren’t his problem. RHBs have a .348 wOBA and .383 xwOBA against May. That is down to a .303 wOBA in these three starts with increase slider usage though, facing the RHBs of the Diamondbacks and Angels, along with the one Cleveland RHB. May doesn’t match up pitch run values well against NYM bats (McNeil, Baty and Lindor most specifically, despite them all being LH). He does now only have a single estimator reaching four (a 4.44 xERA with a 44.1 HardHit%). May’s hard hit rate remained above 40% in the starts against Arizona and Los Angeles, but not the almost entirely left-handed Guardians (22.2%).

May did pitch six two run innings, only striking out five of 26 Mets with a 33.3 HardHit%, but two barrels and a 22.2 GB%. He went 45.5% sweeps and is now up to 40.6% on the season, surpassing his sinker usage (39.7%) and has thrown 44.3% sweepers to 35.2% sinkers over his last four starts. Those reverse splits should turn around with that usage and in fact, RHBs have just a .279 wOBA with no home runs against him over this span, while LHBs are at .376 with four home runs.

A fourth straight start of six innings for Nick Pivetta, but five runs allowed in San Francsico is his second worst performance of the season, though his hard hit rate (36.8%) was higher than his strand rate (35.7%) in the start. The 21 K-BB% is a bit below, but in line with his last two seasons, while he’s cut back on a telegraphed sweeper (29.1% to 19.5%) that was giving him issues with RHBs, who recognized the release last year, in favor of more curveballs again (16.3% to 20.6%). His xERA has gone all the way from 3.51 to 3.49. The problem is that 28 of his 38 barrels left the park last year with just seven of 19 this season so far. I’m not sure he’s a different pitcher, but he’s still a high upside one with a single estimator (3.82 dERA) reaching three and a half.

Pivetta is too expensive in a very difficult matchup. The most shocking thing when updating to the latest park factors by Statcast is that Petco is more homer friendly than Philly to RHBs over the last three years. Ohtani is the only projected Dodger bat with a strong pitch run value matchup against Pivetta because Ohtani is strong against everyone. An expensive May might be my worst value on the board against a San Diego lineup that doesn’t strike out with Tatis, Cronenworth and Machado in decent run value spots, but everyone else in the negative against May.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Mariners @ Diamondbacks

The benefit of a home matchup against the Orioles got Emmerson Hancock within a single out of a quality start, striking out a season second best six of 20 batters. His pitch modeling for the effort was subpar and similar to his season numbers (4.51 Bot ERA, 86 Pitching+), as you can see the worst pitch matchup rating of anyone who has started a game on that board. Add in a large park downgrade in a tough matchup with estimators ranging from a 4.21 xFIP to 5.19 xERA and we can go back to ignoring him. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Nearly the entire projected lineup for the Diamondbacks play extremely well against his arsenal with the exceptions of Moreno and Thomas around neutral.

Before Merrill Kelly’s last start against the Braves in which I recommended him and sided with Kelly’s Diamondbacks against the Chris Sale led Braves…

Merrill Kelly has hit his stride. And I say that despite allowing 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 11 innings because he has a 24.6 K-BB% over his last five starts without dipping below 16.7% in any single start. The contact profile? That’s a bit of a problem with a double digit barrel rate in four of his last five (10.8%) and a 47 HardHit% over this span as well, but that’s been a problem all season for some reason and he still has a reasonable 4.22 xERA. With a career 39.9 HardHit%, I have confidence that he’ll be able to improve somewhat…All contact neutral estimators are actually below his 3.78 ERA.

Kelly struck out eight of 23 with one walk and shut the Braves out on one hit over seven innings, despite a 64.3 HardHit% and 28.6 GB%. He somehow allowed a single barrel. He got a bit fortunate on that contact, yet still has a reasonable 4.06 xERA that’s not his worst estimator, but his 4.28 Bot ERA comes with the best pitch matchup rating solely using run values. Kelly has no other estimators above three and a half.

I have Kelly slightly ahead of Wheeler, third favorite pitcher overall in not a great spot with some risk, but showing a lot of upside lately. Only Raleigh is showing a solid run value matchup against him and that’s more on him than Kelly. Hancock is one of my worst values on the board and a guy you want to attack.