Friday 6/6 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Marlins @ Rays

No market for this afternoon affair yet. The Marlins have yet to name a pitcher (expected to be Edward Cabrera). In fact, DraftKings doesn't currently have a line on anything east of Chicago, which is half the board and it's 9:30 ET PM. 

Phillies @ Pirates

No market for this game either. I don't know why. Both starters (Ross and Falter) have been posted for several hours. Joe Ross makes his first start since last July and I have no idea what the Phillies have planned after him. 

Bailey Falter has struck out two of his last 44 batters faced and 13 of his last 107 with 11 walks and three runs allowed (two earned) over 28.2 innings (.181 BABIP, 88.5 LOB%, no home runs, 41 HardHit%).

Rangers @ Nationals

Patrick Corbin has not allowed more than three runs in a start yet this season. Of course, only two of his starts have gone six innings and he won’t sustain an 83 LOB%, but a near 10 point bump in his hard hit rate with his K-BB (10.5%) and Barrels/BBE (8.1%) remaining relatively the same have done wonders for his career. With nine of his 13 barrels leaving the yard, you could even say he’s been partially unlucky too, which is why while all his estimators exceed four, only his FIP reaches four and a half. The matchup against his old team from a run value standpoint is relatively neutral too.

Contrary to Corbin, Michael Soroka has allowed fewer than three runs just once in six tries, while hitting the six inning mark once as well. However, he’s allowed six runs on four barrels with a 63.3 LOB%. Half his contact has been on the ground with a solid 16.8 K-BB% and his slurve should be a weapon against the Rangers who hit neither curves (-1.83 wCU/C) or sliders (-0.53 wSL/C) well. Soroka’s non-FIP estimators range from a 3.41 dERA to a 3.61 xFIP. That’s a pretty narrow range describing what he’s been.

Neither of these pitchers have been that bad. Both offenses have a wRC+ below 85 against L/RHP. The Rangers add a solid defense and bullpen too. Patrick Corbin being a road favorite in 2025 in his revenge game is not the only surprise here. I’m going to shock you by playing the under in a Patrick Corbin game as well (9.5 -105). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Red Sox @ Yankees

Walker Buehler is another pitcher with some barrel issues (eight of 14 for HRs) and a FIP above his 4.44 ERA with all other estimators below it. Tough matchup puts him near the bottom of our pitch matchup ratings though.

Will Warren followed up a strong 26.2 inning stretch (2.70 ERA/1.50 FIP/2.03 xFIP, 29.2 K-BB%) with a seven run beating in just 1.1 innings in LA. The Dodgers struck out just twice in 14 batters with four walks and a 62.5 HardHit%.

It’s now past 10 pm ET and FanDuel still doesn’t have up Friday’s daily fantasy games. Everyone go to sleep early tonight?

Diamondbacks @ Reds

Eduardo Rodriguez returns from a near three week IL stint (shoulder). He struck out nine of 18 in his lone rehab start, just note it was the CPX league. He has three starts with at least nine strikeouts and no others with more than five. E-Rod has also allowed at least three runs (not all earned) in all nine starts.

Every other start for Nick Lodolo has been a quality start with no more than two runs over his past seven. This would be the bad turn if you buy into that sort of thing. He has an 18.6 K-BB% over this span.

Cubs @ Tigers

Ben Brown’s solid two pitch arsenal that includes a fastball (58%, 52 PitchingBot, 88 Pitching+) and curveball (38.8%, 55, 108) allows him to miss bats (28 K%, 13.3 SwStr%), but also leaves him vulnerable, especially the deeper he goes into a game because batters have a 50/50 chance of guessing right and both pitches are not dominant. He’s allowed a 45.3 HardHit% with 9.3% Barrels/BBE.

Tarik Skubal on a main daily fantasy slate! We’re not worthy! Look at those pitch matchup ratings below! Yes, a K-BB (32.3%) higher than a hard hit rate (30.7%) is quite good.

Brown was a late confirmation, so no market on this one yet either, but Skubal is the obvious top arm tonight, while Brown is only $7K on DK and may be my top value. More on the DFS stuff on Friday afternoon.

Astros @ Guardians

Colton Gordon has been quite impressive against some of the more middling offenses of the American League (TBR 2x, SEA, KCR) with a 19.5 K-BB% highlighted by just three walks and 7.9% Barrels/BBE with a 38.1 HardHit%. He’s been a bit unfortunate with four of his five barrels leaving the yard, a .339 BABIP and 67 LOB%. His worst non-FIP estimator is a 3.75 dERA with an xERA and Bot ERA below three. Pitching+ doesn’t share PitchingBot’s praise, but doesn’t grade him poorly (101) and Gordon doesn’t have the greatest run value matchup against Cleveland mostly because of his own negative run values on the fastball, sinker and slider. Statcast drops Gordon’s .383 wOBA against RHBs to a .278 xwOBA.

It’s been over three weeks since Logan Allen made a start of more than 3.2 innings. He’s posting just a 5.9 K-BB% with 10.2% Barrels/BBE and all non-FIP estimators more than one-third of a run above his 4.22 ERA with only 25% of his barrels leaving the yard. RHBs are within one point of a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against Allen since last year.

Not being able to get RHBs out is a death blow against Houston, who have a wRC+ 44 points higher than Cleveland against LHP, while Gordon has been quite impressive in a small sample himself. Add in similar bullpen estimators and a large defensive edge for Houston and please tell me why the Astros are not decently favored in this game. Splitting a unit between F5 (-110) and full game (+105).  

Royals @ White Sox

Seth Lugo has a rough return from the IL against the Tigers, allowing four runs in 3.1 innings, including two home runs with as many barrels and walks. He struck out only three. Lugo’s K-BB is down to 11.7% (-4.2 points from 2024) with a 6.5 point increase in hard contact to 45.5%. Estimators ranging from a 4.10 xFIP to a 5.04 xERA far exceed his 3.45 ERA (.248 BABIP, 82.4 LOB%) including some poor pitch modeling. LHBs are up to a .310 wOBA and .327 xwOBA against Lugo since last year. 

Davis Martin runs estimators slightly worse than Lugo with much better pitch modeling (4.04 Bot ERA – 5.77 xERA) with the caveat that the xERA is Martin’s only estimator exceeding four and a half. His hard hit rate is less than a point higher than Lugo’s, but with more barrels and a slighter 8.4 K-BB%.

I looked at small gap in estimators and offensive numbers in the first graphic above and knew what I had to do before even seeing the line. Split it between F5 (+140) and full game (+152).

Blue Jays @ Twins

Saw mention on the social medias that we can expect Eric Lauer to play a role in this one. Since the Blue Jays haven’t told anyone what role or who else will be playing roles, like starting pitcher, there’s currently no market for this game either.

Bailey Ober has allowed nine runs (eight earned) over his last five starts, but only 23.1 innings with one quality start. He’s thrown at least 89 pitches in four of them. Weird stuff. So is his .321 BABIP with an 80.8 LOB% with just a league average 13.4 K-BB%.

Bullpens L30 days below...

Padres @ Brewers

Randy Vasquez just broke a stretch where he struck out 19 of 91 batters with just three walks against three of the worst offenses in the league and Toronto. He still has just a 1.9 K-BB% on the season.

Chad Patrick has an unorthodox approach that includes fastballs, sinkers and cutters all elevated. The latter receives just a 34 PitchingBot grade, but 112 Pitching+ that’s more in line with it’s 1.2 RV/100.

Dodgers @ Cardinals

Welp, got one wrong. Dodgers were late listing Justin Wrobleski, who allowed eight runs in his only major league start, has an 8.2 K-BB% at AAA and a 6.5 K-BB% in 36.1 innings for the Dodgers last year. It’s not out of the question that we do get a few innings of Ben Casparius. I don’t understand why the Dodgers would rather throw Wrobleski here.

Sonny Gray has three quality starts without a run and at least eight strikeouts over his last five starts, boosting him to a 22.2 K-BB% that makes his 10.2% Barrels/BBE less of a problem.

Mets @ Rockies

Kodai Senga two hit the Rockies through 6.1 innings, striking out seven last time out. His 11.2 BB% is a bit of a problem and he won’t sustain an 86 LOB% or just three of his 11 barrels leaving the yard, but I’m not concerned here.

Remember when Antonio Senzatela stranded all 19 runners through his first two starts? He’s stranded 55.3% of his runners since and is somehow allowing 10.8% Barrels/BBE with a 53.2 GB%. He doesn’t’ have an estimator below four and a half and batters from either side of the plate exceed a .410 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

Look at the top and bottom of the pitch matchup ratings below and you’ll see everything you need. I still fear this line and total may run a bit high, but won’t be acting on it right now.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Mariners @ Angels

Bryce Miller didn’t look any better returning from the IL with a back issue than before he went on it. After somewhat of a breakout last year (17.9 K-BB%), he’s seemed uncomfortable all year (7.8 K-BB%). I fear this issue may linger. RHBs are up to a .369 wOBA against him this year, a potential issue against the Angels.

Kyle Hendricks has allowed just a 33.7 HardHit%, despite 9.5% Barrels/BBE, but you can’t pitch effectively with a 15.5 K% and that many barrels in this league. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and LHBs exceed .340.

Orioles @ Athletics

Dean “Barrels” Kremer hasn’t allowed a home run on just three barrels over his last three starts and is now actually at what is a league average 9.0% Barrels/BBE. He still has just an 11.3 K-BB% with estimators all above four. LHBs are within a point of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

This should be J.P. Sears, but the A’s have decided to stop listing pitchers, so there’s no line on this game yet either. Sears broke a 19 runs in 12.1 innings run with just two in five innings in Toronto last time out. You can’t even blame the park with just four of his 12 at home, but RHBs are within two points of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him too.

Update: A line was posted around midnight (A's 106) with Sears listed, despite still not being listed on MLB as of Friday afternoon. Kremer has estimators very similar, slightly ahead of Sears and probably won't be massively better if it's not Sears. The Orioles are also in a situation with injuries where they're either forced to play more LHBs against LHP (which means Sears can get more usage out of his best pitch, the sweeper) or inferior RHBs. The first graphic at the top of the page shows significant offensive separation with these two teams. 

Braves @ Giants

After striking out 11 with no walks in each of his last two starts, Spencer Schwellenbach is up to a 19.7 K-BB% with elite pitch modeling and a 3.70 xERA his only estimator exceeding four and a half (7.4% Barrels/BBE, 42.3 HardHit%).

Hayden Birdsong has struck out 15 of 60 with just two walks over three starts. His 12.5 SwStr% is a point above last year’s mark, while he’s gone heavier on the slider (28%) with a few less curves and fastballs. He’s allowed just two barrels with a 34.9 HardHit% in his three starts as well. This could be interesting, but he’s also faced Miami and Kansas City as two of his three opponents.

I’ll throw in another little daily fantasy teaser here and say that Spencer Schwell is my top Skubal pivot and probably a slightly better value in a great spot. I have no idea what the Giants are doing with that lineup right now and I don’t think they do either.