Thursday 6-5 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Diamondbacks @ Braves

Brandon Pfaadt’s effort to throw more curves and changes to combat LHBs has resulted in batters from that side of the plate sustaining their .348 wOBA against him last year and RHBs now smacking him around at .355 too. Pfaadt didn’t record an out last time out and has failed to record a strikeout in two of his last three.

Grant Holmes tied a season high, striking out nine of 24 Red Sox last time out, but perhaps the better news is that he’s walked just one in four of his last five and is now up to a 14.0 K-BB%, still 5.5 points behind last year. He’s also already allowed eight more barrels than last season (12.2% vs 6.7%).

Little known fact: Pfaadt Holmes used to be my rapper name.

Tigers @ White Sox

Casey Mize only lasted 3.1 innings in Kansas City last time out, probably his worst start of the season, a start in which he allowed four barrels and a 64.3 HardHit%, crushing his contact profile and boosting his xERA to…3.10? Mize retains a career best 15.9 K-BB%.

Back to back quality starts with six strikeouts for Sean Burke in Baltimore and against the Rangers with just a 20 HardHit%. Yet, a 4.49 Bot ERA is still his only estimator below five and he’s second from the bottom of the board in the pitch matchup ratings with or without pitch modeling.

I wonder if this park will see 70 degrees all year?

Phillies @ Blue Jays

Eleven starts in without more than three runs with at least five innings in every start, maybe we’re not going to see the Jesus Luzardo blowup this year. Oh! Oh, my! Luzardo allowed more than 10% of his barrels and hard contact last time out against the Brewers. This includes 12 runs over 3.1 innings with a .714 BABIP, but also just four strikeouts, three walks and a 3.9 SwStr%, his first time below double digits this year. With just five of 12 barrels going out, that pushes his non-FIP estimators into a 2.95 (dERA) to 3.33 (xERA) range that’s still pretty damn strong with a 20 K-BB% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE, but now 43.8 HardHit% (49% last six).

With five runs in back to back starts, Chris Bassitt has now allowed 27 runs (one unearned) over his last 43 innings, a span over which LHBs have a .417 wOBA against him with five home runs. However, he also has a reasonable 14.3 K-BB%, 38.6 HardHit% and .338 BABIP with nine of 13 barrrels leaving the park over this stretch. LHBs have a .394 wOBA and 11.9 K-BB% against him and while Fangraphs hard hit rate is not Statcast, a 35.5% mark for LHBs over this run is still decent at worst.

Do I think Bassitt is actually good against LHBs and there are no problems? Not at all, but I also think he’s getting the short end of the stick a bit and isn’t this bad, while there’s been a trend in Luzardo’s contact profile going south recently. He’s tempered that by pitching to an 18.5 K-BB% over this stretch, but consider that the Blue Jays are really the superior offensive team here with much superior defensive and bullpen numbers and I actually have them as the small favorites here. Going to split a unit between full game and F5 after an extra-inning game where both teams used their best relievers on Wednesday.

Twins @ Athletics

Bailey Ober has allowed nine runs (eight earned) over his last five starts, but only 23.1 innings with one quality start. He’s thrown at least 89 pitches in four of them. Weird stuff. So is his .321 BABIP with an 80.8 LOB% with just a league average 13.4 K-BB%.

No idea what the A’s are doing here. It’s either a bullpen game or a callup for a spot start.

Will update if interesting once we figure it out. It probably won’t be.

Midnight Update: It looks like Ober may have been pulled from this game too. TBD on MLB.com

Orioles @ Mariners

After allowing seven home runs with just five strikeouts in his previous two games, Zach Eflin threw seven shutout innings at the White Sox last time out. Yeah, it was the White Sox, but he did what he was supposed to do with increased velocity and improved pitch modeling. Despite 9.3% Barrels/BBE with just a 14.9 K%, Eflin is running a 3.43 xERA that’s his only estimator below four and a full run below all of his non-pitch modeling estimators.

Bryan Woo struck out a season low three Twins in a home start last time out and his 17 K-BB% at home this year is now four points below his road rate. Woo has also struck out just 13 of his last 79 batters with a 6.5 SwStr% and has been on a velocity roller coaster over these three starts (95.1 mph, 94.1, 96.2).

Mentioned yesterday that Seattle opens the roof 75% of the time without public notice. Most recent Statcast park factors have the park at 77 with the roof closed, but 85 with It open on average.

Padres @ Giants

Dylan Cease’s entire season has really been a pair of back to back dominant starts against the Yankees and Angels. He has just a 26.8 K% outside those two starts with a 3.60 ERA which is fine, but nothing special. His .329 BABIP and 66.9 LOB% should regress regardless, but just eight of his 19 barrels (11.2%) have left the yard.

Seven straight quality starts for Robbie Ray with a total of eight runs allowed and a 23.6 K-BB% and three barrels (2.8%), despite a 45 HardHit%. He has just a 43 GB% over this span, so it is likely impossible to keep his barrel rate so low with that hard contact rate and pitch modeling still is not much of a fan, hating his slider that has performed well (1.3 RV/100). Ray has upped his curve (13.9%) and changeup (14.3%) usage over this stretch too.

I’m having trouble buying into pitch modeling that still hates Ray. He’s been dominating with something other than the fastball. With the right weather and umpiring I could see him holding the Padres below their 3.5 run total. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Mets @ Dodgers

David Peterson is another lefty with subpar pitch modeling that does not match results, but also note that his 79.1 LOB% is a bit high and just four of his 11 barrels have left the park. He’s been able to thwart a 46.5 HardHit% with a 57.1 GB%. All estimators are more than half a run above his 2.69 ERA.

Landon Knack is coming off back to back strong starts against these Mets and the Yankees, striking out 11 of 47 with three walks, but is still four points off last year’s 17.8 K-BB% with an awful contact profile (14.4% Barrels/BBE, 51 HardHit%).

With Knack being a late confirmation we only have the main line and total on this game right now.

Astros @ Pirates

A complete game three hitter with nine strikeouts in 84 pitches was Framber Valdez’s last effort. He’s up to a 16 K-BB% (19.9% last five starts) with a 58.5 GB% (66.7% last five). Like Peterson, this helps stifle a 45.9 HardHit%. Framber’s estimators range from a 2.87 dERA to a 3.75 xERA, as he sits second from the top of the board in the pitch matchup ratings against an extremely poor Pittsburgh offense that strikes out a ton against LHP.

Mitch Keller struck out just one Padre in a six and three (innings and runs) quality start last time out, his ninth of the year and third six and three. Just one third of his barrels (5.5%) have left the yard, but that’s countered by a .305 BABIP and 69.4 LOB% that has his non-FIP estimators otherwise within half a run of his 3.78 ERA, which most closely correlates with his 3.81 Bot ERA. Most importantly, many of his issues are with LHBs, as LHBs have been below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and that’s what matters most against the Astros. From a pitch run value standpoint, only Pena and Caratini match up well against Keller.

I was going to wait for an updated forecast, but couldn’t pass up a total of 8 (-115) on FanDuel. All of the offensive numbers except Houston’s 101 wRC+ against RHP are poor in the first graphic and we have two strong defenses with a pair of middling bullpens. As mentioned, the Pirates have been absolutely awful against LHP and get one of the best in the league here. From a daily fantasy standpoint, Valdez is my favorite pitcher and one of the better values on a five game slate. I don’t find Keller to have enough upside for the risk, but you’re not really attacking him with a lot of RHBs either.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Cubs @ Nationals

This is another Drew Pomeranz opening, likely for Colin Rea, who last threw 5.2 innings, facing 27 batters and allowing six runs on as many home runs (three) as strikeouts. The 15 barrels (14%) over his last six starts with a 45.8 HardHit% and 7.6 K-BB% is alarming. You see why they want to try something new here. Heck, it isn’t even confirmed that Rea is pitching here, but if he is, LHBs have a .345 wOBA and .361 xwOBA against him since last year and the Nationals are able to stack a lineup with nine of them. Rea matches up marginally against the projected lineup with James Wood the biggest problem from a pitch run value aspect. Abrams and Tena are also above average by this metric.

Jake Irvin has struck out 16 of his last 158 batters and 13 of those came in back to back starts. That’s four of his last six starts with two or fewer strikeouts. A single digit K-BB% and double digit barrel rate is no way to live. Unless you’re going to keep 17 of your 27 barrels in the park with a .250 BABIP. Irvin’s 3.63 Bot ERA is better than his 3.93 ERA, but with all other non-FIPs above four and a half. The 96 Pitching+ is much more modest. Irvin has poor arsenal matchups against the regular top third of the Cubs order and Hoerner with Tucker the biggest standout of the four. This also makes sense with LHBs above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Irvin since last year.

Bats over arms here, where we also only have the main line and total right now. Irvin is my worst value on the board.

Guardians @ Yankees

It’s a good thing we were patient with Slade Cecconi’s hot start. He’s dropped velocity in his second and third starts, now back to where he was last season and even below that last time out when the Angels hit three home runs with as many walks and strikeouts. Cecconi has allowed eight barrels (17.8%) through three starts, projecting a 6.58 xERA, around three points higher than his contact neutral estimators. PitchingBot (3.81) likes him more than Pitching+ (97), but, as you can see, he has the absolute worst run value matchup in a small sample and that’s because the Yankees murder fastballs. Everyone has a solid pitch run value matchup against him and LeMahieu is the only one without a really strong matchup.

 Max Fried was torched for six runs by the Dodgers, the first time he’s allowed more than two runs since his first start. There was some regression coming. He still has a .250 BABIP and 80 LOB% with just five of his 16 barrels leaving the yard. With an 18 K-BB%, 51.2 GB% and 40.2 HardHit%, Fried’s worst estimator is still just a 3.62 xERA, even if his contact profile is more average than in seasons past. The Guardians have been terrible and strikeout prone against LHP (their projected bottom four by Roster Resource are all above a 30 K% vs LHP since last year and they’re at 25% with a 7.8 HR/FB against southpaws as a team this season). I know there are several switch hitters involved, but I wonder if the Guardians will be the team to go more lefty-heavy against Fried (.355 wOBA, .327 xwOBA since last year). Probably not. Jose Ramirez has a strong pitch run value matchup against him. Nobody else is even really in the positive. Use your LHBs!

The Guardians won’t use their LHBs and despite their swing and miss against LHP, Fried’s upside still may not be worth the upside risk. He’s essentially my 3A to a 3B upcoming overall and costs $10K on each site, as the most expensive pitcher on DK. I don’t hate some exposure for the same price on FanDuel.