Wednesday 6-3 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rockies @ Marlins

On the road, Kyle Freeland has a 14.2 K-BB% with a batters running a wOBA (.313) at league average and more than 100 points lower than at Coors.

Oh, so now Cal Quantrill is a two times and out guy (no more than 19 in four straight starts). Oh, now Quantrill gets piggybacked after being pulled at 3.1 innings for five innings of Jansen Junk in a game he wasn’t pitching poorly in. Oh, now Cal Quantrill faces a season high 24 Giants and strikes out a season high seven. Make up your damn mind! He’s allowed eight runs over his last 22.2 innings with a 17.6 K-BB% and 35.5 HardHit%. More sinkers and cutters appears to have been the answer.

I may have some interest in this total with these two awful offenses, but don’t want to pay -122 for 8.5. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. 

Brewers @ Reds

This could be an opener for Quinn Priester again. His last time out, after an opener, he pitched seven innings of no walk, no strikeout ball in Philadelphia, an outing after striking out a season high seven Pirates without an opener. Here’s an interesting stat: Priester doesn’t have a single game BABIP between .182 and .308, yet a .253 on the season.

I don’t appear to be the only one who doesn’t understand how Andrew Abbott gets the results he does from a poorly graded arsenal (4.65 Bot ERA, 91 Pitching+), league average 10.7 SwStr% and 9.5% Barrels/BBE. Estimators run as low as a 4.05 xERA to as high as that Bot ERA with a 4.33 dERA also above four.

No line on this game with Milwaukee’s pitching plans unconfirmed.

Angels @ Red Sox

After walking four with just two strikeouts in what seemed a decent spot for his reverse split against the Guardians last time out, Jose Soriano has become one of those pitchers who seems to do the opposite of whatever you think he might do. I don’t even want to try and figure it out on a slate where I don’t have to.

Three starts with one run or less and three with either three or six. Three starts with three or fewer strikeouts and three with five or more. I’m not really getting Lucas Giolito yet either without an estimator below four and today’s not the day I figure that out either.

I don’t want to mess with either of these pitchers right now.

Astros @ Pirates

Ryan Gusto last completed five innings on April 23^rd. Since then, he’s allowed 16 runs (13 earned) over 16.1 innings with a 4.5 K-BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE. The sinker, cutter and slider all grade better than his fastball at this point (38 PitchingBot, 77 Pitching+ over this span), yet he’s still throwing them less than 15% of the time each and the fastball over 40%.

Mike Burrows has a league average 10.3 SwStr% and 31 HardHit% through two starts, while pitch modeling loves the slider and is marginal on the arsenal overall. However, he’s allowed three home runs (one wasn’t even a barrel) with five strikeouts and four walks over 39 batters. Also written here before his last start…” Burrows has projections around four and a half, despite posting a 23.1 K-BB% over 32.1 AAA innings, which is about five points higher than his work at the same level in a similar number of innings last year. Fangraphs, which gives him a 40+ Future Value grade sees an eventual home in the bullpen, but that analysis was made in March and may have changed with a more impressive performance.”

We’re now in the evening, but not into the daily fantasy slate yet. Burrows may be the more interesting pitchers of these two…eventually.

Cubs @ Nationals

After a one game slip in Cincinnati, Matthew Boyd went right back to striking out at least seven for the fourth time in five starts without a walk. He’s nearing a 20 K-BB% with a better than average contact profile.

I’m not going to go deep on this one because its not on the main slate and I don’t anticipate having a dog in this fight, but Mackenzie Gore’s 36.2 K% somewhat tempers issues that remain in his contact profile (10.3% Barrels/BBE, 47.1 HardHit%), though he still has just a 3.28 xERA.

Always a bummer when two guys like this aren’t on the main slate, but it’s not the greatest spot for either anyway.

Guardians @ Yankees

Luis L. Ortiz has had some success with elevated fastballs, but it has not been a positive pitch for him overall, either by run value (-0.5 RV/100) or pitch modeling (41 PB, 82 P+) and is a pitch the Yankees are best in the league against (0.96 wFA/C). He did strike out eight of 24 Yankees in an April meeting and hasn’t struck out as many since, but also walked five and didn’t last five innings (four runs). When your walk and barrel rates are both 11.6%, it’s not a great omen.

Fourth quality start in his last five efforts for Clarke Schmidt last time out in Los Angeles (AL). He hasn’t been lighting it up with a 12.3 K-BB% that’s his lowest in any season with more than 10 innings, but his 34.2 HardHit% is also a career best with he same qualifier. Some old issues against LHBs have returned, as they have a .346 wOBA with four home runs against him. Not ideal against Cleveland, who he matches up decently from a pitch run value perspective with some decent modeling as well.

This is not an easy slate, which is why I won’t write off Schmidt despite the return of his issues against LHBs. At more than $8K though, I do have a few guys ahead of him overall and in terms of value. I don’t even hate Ortiz in an SP2 spot with some strikeout upside, but I’m also not ruling out bats here either and am certainly hedging Oritz with some Yankee bats. Kwan, Grisham, Judge, Goldy and Rice match up best from a run value standpoint against the opposing pitcher’s arsenals. Beware that pitchers always have the option of throwing a different pitch, the more likely, the larger their bank of options.

Philles @ Blue Jays

Despite striking out nine of 18 Pirates in his major league debut, Mick Abel had to go back to AAA and pop out another 16 of his last 47 before bumping Taijuan Walker from the rotation. The number thirteen prospect in the Philadelphia organization (40 Future Value grade) via Fangraphs posted a 17.2 K-BB% at AAA this year, his best minor league mark since A ball in 2022. If your expectations are lofty, realize that Abel’s projections average above four and a half.

Jose Berrios tied a season high, striking out nine of 20 A’s last time out. He did so against the Angels five starts back too with a total of 11 strikeouts in the three starts in between. This is what you get with Berrios. He has five starts of at least three runs and seven with two or fewer Estimators ranging from a 4.13 xFIP to a 4.63 Bot ERA and xERA exceed his 3.86 ERA with a problematic 9.6 BB% and 11.6% Barrels/BBE. His arsenal is about break even against the Phillies, a bit worse with below average pitch modeling with Kyle Schwarber the run value matchup standout for the opposition.

I’m sorry that I’m not Abel to recommend Mick, who is already above $8.5K, against a currently smoking and contact prone Toronto lineup. On slates this volatile, you sometimes have to embrace volatile pitchers, like Berrios. I only have a couple of guys clearly ahead of him. Just beware that he will occasionally blow up in your face here and hedge with some Phils. Berrios has no real split since last year.

Diamondbacks @ Braves

Merrill Kelly has hit his stride. And I say that despite allowing 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 11 innings because he has a 24.6 K-BB% over his last five starts without dipping below 16.7% in any single start. The contact profile? That’s a bit of a problem with a double digit barrel rate in four of his last five (10.8%) and a 47 HardHit% over this span as well, but that’s been a problem all season for some reason and he still has a reasonable 4.22 xERA. With a career 39.9 HardHit%, I have confidence that he’ll be able to improve somewhat. He matches up marginally with the Braves and a 4.40 Bot ERA, his only other estimator above four, doesn’t help much, but only Marcell Ozuna and Drake Baldwin grade out well against his arsenal. All contact neutral estimators are actually below his 3.78 ERA.

I continue to be perplexed at Chris Sale’s marginal pitch modeling. It’s better than average, but a middle rotation pitcher, not a Cy Young contender. His fastball even has a negative run value this year, which is the basis of his residing in the lower half of the pitch matchup ratings below. The Diamondbacks slug fastballs (0.88 wFA/C) at the second best rate in the league, behind only the Yankees. That’s the worst of it because Sale has struck out at least eight in five of his last six with a total of seven runs (six earned) allowed in that span. From a run value standpoint, the top five in the projected Arizona (Marte, Carroll, Perdomo, Gurriel, Suarez) all match up well against fastballs and mostly well against sliders and Sale doesn’t really have a split.

This is not a great spot for either pitcher and there are flaws on both sides, but these are my top two overall pitchers on the board and a pair of solid, similar values. It’s a tough pitching slate. I don’t think anyone is completely untouchable in terms of rostering bats against, though I’m not going overboard against Sale, despite the fastball run values on both sides.

Rangers @ Rays

Kumar Rocker, who was last seen allowing five runs to the A’s over 1.2 innings on April 23^rd, is rumored (not confirmed) for this start. A three inning rehab at AA (striking out three of 10) and a four inning rehab start at AAA (five of 13) and he’s set to return from a shoulder injury. He only allowed a single walk and two hits in his rehab starts. Estimators widely ranged from a 3.92 xFIP to a 5.96 xERA in his five starts. LHBs exceed a career .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Look at this. We have more volatility on this slate. Shane Baz has allowed at least five runs in four of his last eight starts with a single quality start in that span, but missing two others by a single out. His K-BB has collapsed to 5.4% over this span (12.8% on the season) with just an 8.1 SwStr%. With 12 of his 22 barrels leaving the park this season, Baz’s non-FIP estimators are all better than his 4.92 ERA and he matches up decently against the Rangers with only Seager and Jung standing out against his arsenal. Baz also has a reverse split with RHBs 40 to 50 points better than LHBs (wOBA and xwOBA) since last year.

While this park hasn’t turned out to be as dangerous as feared, I can’t endorse either of these pitchers and rain potential only adds to that decision. J.Lowe, Aranda, Junior and Caballero match up strongly against Rocker’s arsenal and I may take a side on this game if Rocker is confirmed and the forecast appears decent. Perhaps even if it doesn’t.

Bullpen stats last 30 days...

Tigers @ White Sox

Sawyer Gibson Long was briefly a thing for a minute in 2023 when he struck out 26 of his first 82 major league batters with a 15.8 SwStr% and 25 HardHit% before Tommy John came knocking. A long, hard rehab has only seen him throw 9.1 innings at AAA, striking out nine of 35 batters. Projections are around four, but who knows what he’ll be. Pitching weather in Chicago, which may be enough for you against the White Sox. SGL is cheap, but has faced 18 and 17 batters in his last two rehab starts, finishing at 5.1 innings in his last.

Bullpen game for the White Sox. Roster Resource is guessing Jared Shuster. White Sox have the second worst pen estimators in the league last 30 days if it matters.

With the coldest temperatures of the day in a negative run environment, this game holds little interest, except if you want to take a flyer on SGL.

Royals @ Cardinals

Four major league starts for Noah Cameron and four starts with seventh inning outs and no more than one run allowed. The 8.2 K-BB% and BB% aren’t as impressive and more than 10 points below his AAA mark, but he has handled contact well (three barrels, 37.8 HardHit%). A .153 BABIP and 98.9 LOB% are ridiculous. Even with a 3.14 xERA, Cameron doesn’t have a single estimator within two runs of his 1.05 ERA, while Statcast drives RHBs up from a .235 wOBA to a .310 xwOBA. By small sample run values, Cameron does match up very well against the Cardinals, almost entirely because everything he throws has had great results so far, except the fastball, ironically, a pitch the Cardinals are third best in the majors against (0.78 wFA/C).

Miles Mikolas has struck out more than four twice with a high of six this season. His 14.5 K% isn’t much higher than the 9.9% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. The hard hit rate has spiked with two out of his last three being at 50% or worse. Just three of Mikolas’s 18 barrels have left the yard, but his best non-FIP estimator is a 4.30 Bot ERA. His arsenal does match up well against a poor Kansas City offense, but this is still a low strikeout lineup.

Now that I’ve said all these words, St Louis is the most troublesome weather spot on the slate. We weren’t interested in an overpriced Cameron or Mikolas anyway. No Royal matches up pitch run values well against Mikolas and Witt is probably the only batter you’d really embrace the weather risk for.

Orioles @ Mariners

Cade Povich has struck out 24 of his last 68 batters, but that’s about all of the good news because he’s only done that with a 10.2 SwStr% and has allowed eight runs over those 15.1 innings with just two of his six barrels (16.7%) leaving the yard and a 63.6 HardHit%. Povich’s 6.03 xERA on the season speaks volumes. RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA since last year against him.

Emmerson Hancock has struck out more than four batters just twice. The rare Seattle pitcher who has been better on the road (3.6 K-BB%, .452 wOBA against at home this year). Hancock’s best estimator is a 4.33 xFIP and batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

Interesting to note, Seattle’s run environment goes from a 77 park run factor with the roof closed to 85 with it open via Statcast three year park factors. Left-handed home runs go from 90 to 101 and RHBs go from 76 to 93. The roof is open 75% of the time, but we never know when. Google tells us 70 degrees with some wind and no rain. I’m going to assume roof open tonight. Still potentially the most negative run environment on the board. I’m not sure this park can save these pitchers, but both are cheap enough that I don’t hate them at low prices, especially Povich in punt position on DraftKings. They’re certainly not my favorites. Holliday, O’Hearn, Crawford and Raleigh all have strong pitch run value matchups. Henderson to a lesser extent.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Padres @ Giants

Three straight quality starts with a total of four runs allowed and at least seven strikeouts in each one has Nick Pivetta up to a 21.5 K-BB% (22.5% since 2023) with the same minor contact issues (10.9% Barrels/BBE, 41 HardHit%). I say minor because while he’s stayed the same, the league as a whole has been allowing more barrels and hard contact. Just six of his 17 barrels have left the yard (I posted a graphic on Bsky the other day where it showed Petco being more power friendly than CItiznen’s Bank Park over the last three years) and pitch modeling has always adored Pivetta, who matches up well from a run value standpoint against the Giants too. Additional estimators range from a 3.24 SIERA to a 3.75 dERA. He’s improved on last year’s RHB issues (he used to have LHB issues until he solved them, but his sweeper was being telegraphed to RHBs) with batters from either side of the plate below a .260 wOBA against him this year.

Kyle Harrison has struck out nine of 35 batters in two shortened starts while being stretched out. This was in Miami and Washington, not the caliber of offense we want to evaluate him against, but take a look at San Diego’s numbers against LHP and it’s not any better. And you can’t blame early season injuries because it was their LHBs that were injured. They’re still not going to strike out a lot though. So, what am I buying into here? Reports that say Harrison has looked better with improved command (64 Bot Cmd, 122 Location+ are large jumps from last season) or projections that are a quarter to half a run worse than he’s performed so far?

If the answer to the question above is the former, then the Giants are the play at -102. If it’s the latter, we leave it alone. I’ve been convinced enough that it’s the former. Harrison is still probably too expensive on DraftKings. Although much cheaper on FanDuel, what are his chances of going six for the QS? If that weren’t an issue, he might be my top value. Pivetta is the most expensive pitcher on the board and someone I’m not interested in at this price. Jackson Merrill is really the only batter that matches up well against the opposing pitcher’s arsenal from a run value standpoint. Include the poor run environment and I’m not really interested in bats at all here.

Twins @ Athletics

As I suspected, Jacob Lopez was “scratched” from his Tuesday game start simply to put an opener in front of him. I’m not sure why Roster Resource still has him listed Wednesday as he’s currently in his fifth inning of work. We really have no idea who’s starting for the A’s at this point.

The Wednesday afternoon update is that we still don’t know who’s pitching here.

MLB – TBD
Roster Resource – Jeffrey Springs (May 30^th – four days rest)
Rotogrinders – Sean Newcomb (would likely mean bullpen game)

The good news is that it’s likely a LHP, at least to start the game. The bad news is that this is the top run environment on the slate. We NEED to know!

Zebby Matthews has impressively struck out 21 of 62 batters with a 13 SwStr%. He’s allowed four barrels (11.1%) with a 41.7 HardHit%. He’s been a control/command stud in the minors (21.5 K-BB% AAA his year). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA in his 51.2 innings of career major league work.

Here’s what I can tell you. Buxton, Jeffers, Correa and even Wallner has smoked LHP for better than a 125 wRC+ and .200 ISO since last year. They merit strong consideration against any LHP in this park. Zebby Matthews is a high risk option I wouldn’t consider on most other slates in this park, but the pitching here is so scary and the weather pretty decent in most other parks. He shouldn’t walk many and should have some strikeouts in this lineup for him.

Mets @ Dodgers

Griffin Canning’s substantial strand rate has begun regressing with eight runs (six earned) over his last 5.2 innings and he’s still at 80.8%. One of those starts was rain shortened or it may have been worse and the other was a struggle against the White Sox. He’s walked eight of his last 31 batters with just four strikeouts with matching 10.9 BB% and K-BB% marks on the year now. Canning will be pitching for his rotation life and he did legitimately look better earlier in the season, while still likely to regress. Now, he’s just been pitching poorly though. Cannings 3.23 ERA matches his 3.23 dERA (I have no idea how this stat is calculated), but below remaining estimators running as high as a 4.51 Bot ERA (modeling hates his fastball, despite being a break even pitch at 0.1 RV/100). He has very tough matchups against Ohtani, Freeman and Smith by run value production on his pitches. LHBs exceed a .330 wOBA this year and last year and a .340 xwOBA since last year.

The Yankees smoked Tony Gonsolin for four home runs, doubling his season total on just three barrels with 10 on the season, but that’s still 11.6% of contact with a 43 HardHit% to go with an 11.1 BB%. Even disregarding his FIP, a 5.23 ERA matches a 5.38 xERA, 5.16 Bot ERA and 87 Pitching+. LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA with RHBs just above .300.

Bats only here. Lindor, Taylor, Soto and McNeil are standouts against Gonsolin’s arsenal (in that order). Dodger standouts against what Canning throws are mentioned above.

Written on Wednesday night: I'll get to Gonsolin on Wednesday, but am a bit surprised at the reasonable 4.5 run total (-132) for the Dodgers here with everything seemingly lining up for them. They're not facing a particularly strong pitcher, defense or bullpen on Wednesday.