Monday 6/2 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Two things I can say that might help readers. I may start mentioning where I’m finding the best line for games. That’s because, after starting with the same number of units in each of my DraftKings and Fanduel account to start the season, I’ve busted my DraftKings account nearly three times, while more than doubling up on FanDuel. I have no idea how this is even possible, but you should probably play along with FanDuel and fade DraftKings mentions.

All stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page. Please ask about anything that's unclear. 

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Rockies @ Marlins

Two runs or less in three of German Marquez’s last four starts, including each of the last two against the Phillies and Cubs (11 strikeouts, 16 SwStr%, 52 batters faced). Curveball at 38.4% usage over his last three starts (26.1% season). The PitchingBot grade on the pitch has increased (54 L3, 49 season), but not his Pitching+ (101). Overall, Marquez has managed to allow just 4.5% Barrels/BBE with a league average ground ball rate and 47.4 HardHit% and with just four of 11 barrels leaving the park, somebody using only FIP would believe him to be a league average pitcher. All other estimators exceed four and a half with the worst pitch modeling and pitch matchup rating by run values or pitch modeling on the board, though only a 5.31 dERA is less than two runs below Marquez’s 7.13 ERA (.344 BABIP, 51.5 LOB%). Batters from either side of the plate are still above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, but at least below .400.

For the second time in five starts (ATH, SDP), Max Meyer walked two without a strikeout. Meyer had a sub-five SwStr% in both those starts, two of four times he’s been in single digits this year, but all four have come over his last six starts. His fastball graded poorly in both starts against the A’s and Padres, but the slider, which went without a whiff against the Padres, only graded poorly against the A’s. Suddenly, the slider results (104 wRC+, 16.1 SwStr%) are really no better than last year and the same can be said for the fastball (191, 5.5%).

A pair of pitchers are swimming in different directions here, but the Marlins are still two to one favorites and I’m fine with that because of how bad the Rockies are offensively and in the bullpen (run worse than MIA L30 days).

Angels @ Red Sox

Tyler Anderson continues to run an unsustainable .220 BABIP and 80.9 LOB%, not meaning he can’t keep it up for a full season, just that it’s very unlikely. Also, with a career 1.67 K/SwStr, he appears to be an outlier with an above average swinging strike rate, but below average strikeout rate. He does benefit from a 33.5 HardHit%, but has induced just six infield popops with a 29.9 GB%. Anderson’s changeup grades worse than last year, but still above average (55 PB, 101 P+) and by run value, it’s been his worst pitch. The cutter is quite the opposite. It grades awfully, but performs decently and is a pitch the Red Sox have been worst in the league against this year. LHBs hit Anderson better than RHBs (.347 wOBA, .360 xwOBA since last year), while Duran and Refsnyder matchup best against him via pitch run values.

Richard Fitts threw just 44 pitches in his return from the IL, so we’re expecting maybe four innings (60 pitches) tops? With just two of his six barrels leaving the park this season, Fitts has a 3.94 FIP that’s second closest to a his 2.70 ERA behind his 3.78 Bot ERA. His arsenal graded even better last year. His spring velocity increase hasn’t entirely sustained, but after averaging 94.4 mph last year, he’s only been below 94.9 mph in one of his four starts.

If we could expect a normal workload from Fitts (whose name you may notice I have not poked at once), he’d be my top value on the board. Seven of nine projected Angels (Roster Resource) exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last season. I don’t think I can play a four inning pitcher, even on this slate. Every batter in the projected Boston lineup (except for Marcello Mayer) have at least a 22 K% vs LHP since last year, but I’m not rostering Anderson in this park with one of the league's worst defenses behind him. Weather should be decent enough that it’ll likely play at it’s normal run environment on a slate that is half full with extremely hitter friendly parks.  

Brewers @ Reds

Aaron Civale is coming off his best start of the season: five innings of three hit ball with four strikeouts and a walk against the Red Sox. His velocity was up to 92.1 mph, in line with last year for the first time this season, but he still had awful pitch modeling for the outing (5.35 Bot ERA, 89 Pitching+) and for the season (over three starts, as you can see below). With the other two starts against the Yankees and Pirates, he’s a difficult evaluation at this point. His small sample matches up poorly against the Reds, whether we’re talking about pure run value (Benson, Freidl and Fraley matchup best here, but I emphasize the small sample) or with pitch modeling.

I played against Brady Singer’s 3.5 K prop last time out and he went seven innings (29 batters) without hitting it. Since striking out eight Marlins, Singer has struck out just 17 of his last 138 batters faced (5.8 SwStr%) with 14 walks. He’s also allowed 12.3% Barrels/BBE with a 45.3 HardHit% over this span. His 5.46 ERA matches his 5.46 FIP during this run and that’s with just four of his 13 barrels leaving the yard with four of six starts on the road. Singer doesn’t have awful pitch run value matchups on the whole (worse with pitch modeling), but Brice Turang matches up the best against him and LHBs are within three points of a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

This is the second hitter friendly, power friendly especially, environment on the board and I have these two pitchers as potentially the worst two values on the slate, among those I’m expecting to have a normal workload. Still, I was going to leave this game alone (not from a daily fantasy standpoint, all the LHBs against Singer and anyone with a pulse against Civale), but after reading that Civale’s performance was less than results on PitchersList, my first play of June will be to back the over in this game (9 -118 on FanDuel). Weather isn't expected to impact this game. 

Tigers @ White Sox

With eight strikeouts in back to back starts, Jack Flaherty is up to a 20 K-BB%, but a 3.99 ERA and 4.12 FIP match his 3.94 ERA with 11.5% Barrels/BBE and 11 of 17 leaving the yard. The fastball will occasionally get crushed (eight home runs already with a 154 wRC+ and 5.4 SwStr%), especially when it’s below 93 mph and his velocity has ranged from 91.9 to 93.6 game averages this year. The secondaries have missed bats (Knucklecurve, Slider). There is major discrepancy between PitchingBot (4.80 ERA) and Pitching+ (100) on his arsenal, which is decent from a run value matchup perspective because it’s the White Sox.

Jonathan Cannon walked his first batter of May last time out, finishing with 19 strikeouts and one walk (123 BF) on the month. His estimators were still a bit above his 3.77 ERA for the month, as only one-third of his barrels were home runs. On the season, Cannon’s 4.15 ERA is below all estimators except a 4.05 ERA, ranging as high as a 4.87 dERA. LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against him since last year.

Flaherty is the number two pitcher and value on this board for me. While updating my park factors over the weekend, I noticed that Guaranteed Rate Field is no longer hitter or power friendly. I’m also showing some value on the White Sox at +180 (DK unfortunately) without any game edges (staring pitching, offense, bullpen, defense, base running). However, there are a few Chicago hitters swinging the bat well (Vargas has been on fire and matches up decently by pitch run values, along with Tauchman and Palacios against Flaherty) and the pitcher xERA’s are only separated by a quarter of a run.

Padres @ Giants

Since allowing no runs over his first 14.1 innings in Pittsburgh and Colorado, marginal peripherals have caught up with Stephen Kolek over his last three starts (15 runs, 14 earned over 16.1 innings against the Mariners, Blue Jays and Marlins). With just a 10.9 K-BB%, Kolek has kept 56.4% of his contact on the ground, which has stifled barrels (just five), but with a 53.2 HardHit%. His 4.11 ERA is now above estimators ranging from a 3.72 xERA to a 4.04 Bot ERA with batters from either side of the plate between a .315 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Logan Webb hit the double digit strikeout mark for the third time this season in Detroit last time out. He is fifth among qualified National League pitchers with a 22.3 K-BB% and fourth with a 55.8 GB%. That’s a Cy Young award contending combination. If there’s one ugly in his profile, it’s a 43.7 HardHit%, but even that’s an improvement off the last two seasons and he’s only allowed 11 barrels (5.5%) with all those ground balls. The park further helps him with just one of four barrels surrendered at home turning into home runs.

Webb tops the pitch matchup ratings with or without pitch modeling. In the most firmly negative run environment on the board, he’s my top pitcher and value on the board, even against a San Diego lineup that doesn’t include a projected batter above a 21.3 K% against RHP, but Fernando Tatis is the only one without a negative run value matchup against Webb’s arsenal and tendencies with regard to usage and that’s just barely. Even in a nice spot, Koleck costs too much for a guy with a 7.2 SwStr%. Incidentally, it’s 10 PM ET and DraftKings is not yet offering lines beyond the game in Chicago. Maybe that’s a positive.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Twins @ Athletics

It was great to see Joe Ryan’s velocity spike to a season high 94.4 mph last time out in Tampa Bay after averaging a season low 91.9 mph being tossed into a suspended game the outing prior (not even technically a start). While striking out just nine of his last 42 batters faced is a two game low for Ryan this year, he’s now running a 26.0 K-BB% that’s third best among all qualified pitchers in both leagues. Problematically, he doesn’t have the ground ball rate of a Logan Webb (33.6%) and does allow hard contact at a 41.6% rate, which has resulted in 13.6% Barrels/BBE and he's been a bit fortunate that just eight of 21 barrels have left the park. The rest of it is still good enough that Ryan’s worst estimator is a 3.55 xFIP. He does match up decently against this A’s offense by run values with or without pitch modeling, but this damn park.

Not a surprise, Luis Severino tossed his third straight quality start against an almost entirely right-handed Astros lineup in Houston, but only two of his six quality starts this season have come at home and one was against the White Sox, while the other was against the Angels, two more predominantly right-handed offenses and also two of the worst offenses overall in the league. Over his last six starts, Severino has just a 17 K% (7.3 SwStr%), but he’s allowed just three barrels over this run despite a 40.6 GB%. LHBs are within a point of a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Severino since last year, each at least 49 points higher than RHBs, while the overall pitch matchup ratings are solid against the Twins with most projected starters for Minnesota not doing much with the pitches Severino throws.

From a daily fantasy standpoint, before we even get to the park, neither of these offenses have struck out much (below 21.5% Home/Road and vs RHP). However, the A’s might be a little bit higher with recent roster turnover. The lack of strikeout upside hurts Severino’s value most, unless you’re looking for workload upside for some reason. He’s gone at least six innings in all but three starts (two at home against New York teams he's previously pitched for). For Ryan, who is still my third best arm on this slate, it’s simply the park and the price that murder his value. There’s a reason we don’t use single season park factors because Toronto would have a 180 park run factor right now if we did, but we don’t really have a choice here and Sutter Health’s 125 park run factor is two points higher than Coors’ three year run factor.

Offensively, we’re looking for left-handed Twins first and foremost. Wallner being back and being cheap as a platoon bat, as is Larnach, might help make some other decisions easier. However, Roster Resource projects six RHBs against RHPs with Castro and Clemens on the bench. I’m not sure they both sit against Severino’s splits. If they do, I may side with the A’s F5 (around +120 or better) with Severino’s numbers against RHBs and Ryan’s issues with barrels in a really tough park.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Mets @ Dodgers

It’s very considerate of the Mets to meet the Dodgers with Paul Blackburn, coming off a tough series with the Yankees that included the Sunday Night game (at home), while they were mopping Citi Field. with the Rockies. When Blackburn first came to the Mets, he upped his cutter usage to 30%. He struck out eight of his first 50 batters, a more modest eight of his next 42 and then his next start, on August 23^rd, would be his last until Monday night. It wasn’t just one injury, but several that delayed Blackburn’s return, the major one a frightening spinal fluid leak and most recently knee inflammation. While it’s great to see him back, Blackburn projects around four and a quarter runs per nine. His rehab starts have taken him through three levels of play this season, but just a 12.2 K-BB% over 20.1 AAA innings. Blackburn has faced 23 batters in each of his last two starts, so workload isn’t a concern unless the Dodgers beat the tar out of him. Blackburn has a reverse split with RHBs owning a .386 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against him last year, which is more than 60 points higher than LHBs. It may work in his favor if Mookie Betts remains out.

Striking out 25 of his last 68 batters after just 33 of his first 166, Dustin May is up to a 24.8 K% and 16.2 K-BB%. His SwStr rate has gone from 8.7% to just 10.6% over these last three starts, not enough to sustain the strikeout spike as you see on the K/SwStr chart. He’s chosen to increase his slider usage to 44% over this span, seven percentage points more than his sinker, while going 17.8% cutters against an almost entirely left-handed Cleveland lineup last time out. However, LHBs aren’t his problem. RHBs have a .348 wOBA and .383 xwOBA against May. That is down to a .303 wOBA in these three starts with increase slider usage though, facing the RHBs of the Diamondbacks and Angels, along with the one Cleveland RHB. May doesn’t match up pitch run values well against NYM bats (McNeil, Baty and Lindor most specifically, despite them all being LH). He does now only have a single estimator reaching four (a 4.44 xERA with a 44.1 HardHit%). May’s hard hit rate remained above 40% in the starts against Arizona and Los Angeles, but not the almost entirely left-handed Guardians (22.2%).

Let’s say I’m impressed, but not yet convinced by May’s turnaround. Dodger Stadium is run neutral, but very power friendly. It’s a rough spot and May is not cheap. He’s probably my number four overall arm, not too far ahead of Kolek. It’s easy to tell you to attack Blackburn with Dodger bats, but his reverse-split could make other offenses more attractive if Betts is out.