Thursday 5/29 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Braves @ Phillies (G1)

A few starts after it looked like AJSS was getting a grip on this major league thing, Washington trounces him for seven runs in a performance where he walked three with just one strikeout. I don’t know what to make of the guy. He has one decent pitch (splitter 51 PB, 106 P+), but the only pitch he throws more often (fastball 49, 88) seems to get him trouble sometimes. Batters have a 129 wRC+ against it. As is sometimes the case with splitter heavy pitchers, AJSS has a large reverse split. RHBs have a .374 wOBA and .423 xwOBA against him since last year with Castellanos showing the best work against splitters, but I’m sure their LHBs can handle poorly placed fastballs too.
DEF: 13
BSR: 1

If you think Cristopher Sanchez hasn’t been as crisp over his last couple of outings (10.2 IP – 6 R – 5 ER), consider he’s thrown back to back starts in the two toughest run environments in baseball (Coors & Sacramento), yet still posted a 21.3 K-BB% with just two barrels. On the season, his 3.17 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators except a 3.73 Bot ERA that only sees his slider (56 grade) as being much above average this year with all three major offerings declining slightly by both pitch modeling systems. RHBs have remained a weakness for Sanchez (.327 wOBA with six home runs, .303 wOBA/.302 xwOBA since last year).
DEF: -12
BSR: -1

Each team throwing a RHP and LHP may make lineups a bit more predictable, while I’d imagine Wheeler would get Realmuto with Marchan a switch-hitter. I could be wrong. AJSS has that large reverse split.

Braves @ Phillies (G2)

It’s not just that Chris Sale has allowed just seven runs (six earned) over his last 33.1 innings with a 26.9 K-BB% and 30.4 HardHit%. It’s that this encompasses just five starts. Yes, he’s five outs shy of competing seven in all five starts. On the season, Sale’s 3.36 ERA exceeds all estimators (within half a run) except a 3.56 Bot ERA. Pitching+ (101) is even harder on Sale. Considering he throws just two pitches 90% of the time, it should be pretty easy to figure out which one they don’t like. PitchingBot grades both the fastball and slider between 53 and 55. Good, but not great. Pitching+ thinks the fastball’s below average (92). Hmm…a 199 wRC+ against and a 9.0 SwStr%, which is worst in any season he’s thrown more than 100 of them since 2017 does make you wonder. It’s a below average pitch by run value (-1.5 RV/100) and the major reason he’s towards the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings. The Phillies smash fastballs (0.83 wFA/C is top five). The Phillies tapped Sale for five runs in their first meeting this year and this spectacular run has come during an part of his schedule (Reds, Rockies, Pirates). I don’t want to go too nuts though because the Phillies struggle against sliders and throws and Sale has no reservations about throwing them to RHBs.
DEF: 11
BSR: -2

After four straight quality starts with two runs allowed in each, Zach Wheeler now hasn’t allowed a single run over his last 25.2 innings. And I thought this was the year the decline might kick in. He’s solved his issues against LHBs and is running a career best 27.5 K-BB% with his typically excellent contact management. He doesn’t have an estimator above three and his 3.00 dERA can GTFO.
DEF: -9
BSR: -3

Just realizing this is the only unprotected environment on Thursday. Weather should be neutral. These are two of the top three arms on the board, one of them much more expensive than the other, especially on DraftKings. If I’m disregarding or at least tempering what I’ve mentioned about pitch modeling and run values, leaning more heavily towards actual results (underlying results, not ERA), Sale is my top guy, 1A value play on FanDuel and runaway top value on DraftKings. While no Braves score well against Wheeler’s arsenal, Acuna and Baldwin are the only ones not in a negative run value situation against his pitches.

Athletics @ Blue Jays

Making a bit of a surprise start against the Phillies, Jacob Lopez tossed seven innings of three hit ball, allowing a single run, while striking out eight of 26 batters. He walked one with just four hard hit batted balls with only two batted balls on the ground. Throwing a fastball, cutter and slider (the only one of the three that grades well) all between 28.6% and 37.4% of the time and at just 91.7 mph, Lopez generated 14 whiffs with heaters up and sliders down. This was entirely unheralded from the 27 year-old out of the Tampa Bay system. (Could they have missed one?) He did strike out 38 of 104 at AAA this season, but wasn’t even a full time starter in the minors and had a more modest 16.1 K-BB% at AAA last season (88.2 IP).
DEF: -9
BSR: -3

Since striking out nine of the 27 Angels he faced, while walking another five, Jose Berrios has walked five of 74 total, but with just 11 strikeouts and 10 runs in 17.1 innings. Berros will seem to have his games here and there, but we should understand by now that he’s never going to be consistent. His K-BB has been trending down pretty much since coming to Toronto and is down to a career low 11% (60 IP min.) with his worst barrel rate (12.3%) and second worst hard hit rate (42.2%). The ugly result is a 4.22 ERA that’s below all of his estimators, running as high as a 5.12 xERA. Statcast pushes batters from either side of the plate up from a greater than .310 wOBA against him since last year to a .340 xwOBA or better.
DEF: 8
BSR: 1

The Blue Jays don’t strike out enough to give Lopez much value, unless we consider what he did against the Phillies to be his new baseline. In a small sample since last year (24.1 IP), he has held RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA. On the other side, I guess if you really want to pay down for at least one arm, Berrios might be the one. It’s a neutral run environment and the A’s do have some strikeouts in the projected lineup (five > 22% vs RHP since last year). Wilson, Bangeliers and Andujar run the best run value matchups against his arsenal.

Bullpen stats last 30 days...

Rays @ Astros

The obligatory first look when evaluating a pitcher against the Astros is their split against RHBs and Shane Baz has a reverse one (RHBs .313 wOBA, .325 xwOBA since last year). This year, RHBs have a .361 wOBA with seven of the 10 home runs Baz has allowed. Baz broke out of a rough funk where he had allowed 21 runs over 19.2 innings last time out against the Blue Jays (5 IP – 1 R), but he’s still struck out just three more than he’s walked with 11 barrels (12.4%) over his last five starts. On the season, all estimators are below his 4.94 ERA. As a matter of fact, outside a matching 4.92 FIP (10 of 18 barrels have gone out) a 3.58 dERA (don’t get me started on this stat again) is his only estimator outside a 4.03 to 4.13 range. Okay, so average pitcher with a weakness against RHBs and a marginal pitch matchup rating. Paredes matches up best against him from a pitch run value perspective.
DEF: -2
BSR: -4

Ryan Gusto’s singular trick (fastball) has been outed and the results might look better than they really are because he’s only completed five innings in two of his six starts. The heater had a 70 PB grade, 120 Pitching+ through his first 17 innings this year, but hasn’t graded even average in a single outing since (39 PB, 76 P+ in 18.1 innings). The result has been 15 runs (12 earned) with an 8.8 K-BB% over those 18.1 innings. Gusto throws his fastball half the time and a smattering of other pitches around 10% of the time each and some of them don’t grade poorly at all, but none of them have a positive run value. Aside from the fastball, it’s difficult to match up pitch run values against him because if you hit any of his other pitches well, he can easily opt to not throw them. Josh Lowe is the guy he has to watch out for most from a fastball standpoint though. LHBs also have a .412 wOBA and .395 xwOBA against him.
DEF: 8
BSR: 0

I want some offensive exposure in both DFS and the markets, but don’t want to side with either pitcher. What I’ve decided to do is split a unit between the F5 over (4.5 -105) and the Houston team total over (3.5 -140). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Nationals @ Mariners

Mackenzie Gore has struck out exactly nine in three of his last four starts and as you see above, he’s the top strikeout arm on the board. When you strike out batters at a rate even close to that, the 11.3% Barrels/BBE and 48.6 HardHit% hurt much less. The park upgrade should make them hurt even less. Only three times this season has Gore failed to complete six innings so the nearly half the time he’s either striking out or walking batters isn’t running his pitch count up so fast that he’s knocked out early (with the exception of an .833 BABIP in Baltimore). The downside is that Gore’s 3.47 ERA matches his 3.51 xERA and 3.56 Bot ERA. Maybe that doesn’t regress to the rest of his estimators one-third of a run to almost a full run lower. That’s still a pitcher you want to have near the top of your rotation. It’s a bit ironic how Gore matches up with the Mariners. Everything they hit well, he throws well and vice versa, except a changeup he throws just 9.0% of the time. No single bat really stands out as someone who hits his top pitches well, though he does have a reverse  split and Crawford does have the best run value grade against him (hits curveballs well).
DEF: -13
BSR: -1

I’m only realizing it now, but Emmerson Hancock has had a stretch of tough road starts (CIN, Fenway, Sacramento, HOU) with only three home starts and two of them against the Tigers and Yankees. His decent contact profile begins to look better, though I still can’t get behind the 9.0 K-BB% and it’s actually been 3.1% at home. Small sample. His contact neutral estimators and pitch modeling are around four and a half and that’s the good news with a 5.60 xERA much closer to Hancock’s 5.95 ERA. The .352 BABIP should improve, but Hancock also has the worst pitch matchup rating today. That’s mostly due to the -2.3 RV/100 on his most frequently thrown pitch (sinker 37.7%), but also because the Nationals have hit fastballs well too (0.18 wFA/C) and he throws those 21.3% of the time. Abrams (strongest against sinkers) matches up as his toughest opponent by pitch run values with Wood, Ruiz and Garcia troublesome too.
DEF: 0
BSR: -6

Let’s start with the daily fantasy stuff. Gore is my number two overall and my 1B value to Sale’s 1A on FanDuel. Close enough that weather/umpires/lineups could push either ahead of the other. But the Mariners strike out most often against LHP and at home (25.2% each). It’s a tough park, but on a four game slate you have to attack every pitcher’s weaknesses. I don’t hate the Washington bats I mentioned here. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Hancock since last year.

Next, we’re going to split a unit here. The first is going to surprise you, but the Mariners (-110) have every edge except starting pitching (bullpen, defense, offense & base running all better by moderate margins). Secondly, it’s the most negative run environment in the league with the visiting team bringing in a strong starting pitcher and below average offense (under 7.5 -110).