Wednesday 5/28 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Dodgers @ Guardians

Clayton Kershaw’s second start was rain shortend. Just six batters, one strikeout with his velocity dropping further, from 89.2 mph to 88.4. With the caveat that he’s only thrown 109 pitches, which used to be one game, his pitch modeling is worst on the board (as you can see below) and there are several pitchers on the board with small sample sizes.
DEF: 4
BSR: 0

Slade Cecconi has struck out 14 of the 45 batters he’s faced in Cincinnati and Detroit with a 17.3 SwStr%. The only blemish has been five barrels (17.4%), which constitutes nearly half of his hard contact (12 batted balls > 95 EV). That said, his velocity, up a full mph in his first start was back down mph to last year’s levels last time out. He’s changed his pitch mix a bit, but pitch modeling actually liked his stuff better last year.

DEF: 7
BSR: 4

If I’m using projections, Kershaw is still the superior pitcher by around a quarter of a run. I’m not sure that’s true and don’t think a mid-week 1pm ET east coast start is atop the Dodgers wish list of things to do. I might have some interest in the Guardians at anything above +120. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

UPDATE: Fanduel has posted CLE +130, but Cecconi is no longer listed on MLB.com. 

Giants @ Tigers

Landon Roupp struck out 29 of the first 93 batters he faced this year (15.5 SwStr%) and just 20 of his last 134 (6.3 SwStr%). He’s reduced usage of his curveball (42.9% first eight starts) to 29.8% in his last two starts, while throwing more changeups (17.9%). The curve is the far better graded pitch.
DEF: -6
BSR: 2

Jackson Jobe has some positive pitch modeling. His 3.84 Bot ERA is better than his 4.06 ERA, but the reality is that a 4.49 xERA is his next best estimator with a 5.6 K-BB% and 9.0% Barrels/BBE.

DEF: -4
BSR: 5

I guess the same applies to the Giants playing a mid-week early afternoon east coast game.

Twins @ Rays

Pablo Lopez has allowed more than two runs once since his first start. His worst estimator is a 3.36 dERA. It looks like last year was the fluke and not his breakout in 2023.
DEF: 4
BSR: 0

Drew Rasmussen’s strikeout rate Is dropping (27.8% first five starts, 15.2% last five), but he’s completed six innings for the first two times this year in his last two starts. He still only has a season high of 86 pitches and needs to be extremely efficient to post a quality start.

DEF: -2
BSR: -5

Upper 80s likely, possibly one of the best hitting spots on the board all day. I’m not sure these pitchers will cooperate.

White Sox @ Mets

Shane Smith has been a helluva find and Chicago’s best pitcher. I’m not saying that because of his 2.36 ERA. Seven of his 21 runs have been unearned and only three of his eight barrels have left the park, but the 4.00 Bot ERA caps his estimator range. He also has a decent matchup with a Mets offense that hasn’t hit fastballs well as a group (-0.45 wFA/C).
DEF: -7
BSR: 0

Griffin Canning may have gotten lucky with a rain shortened start against the Dodgers. He walked four of 12 and it looked like his 86.8 LOB% was going to come crashing down. There’s no doubt that he’s improved (13.2 points by ground ball rate and 3.7 points by K-BB%), but he’s also now up to a 10% walk rate with a 48.6  HardHit%. The 53.9 GB% is really what’s saving him from being barreled all over the place. I have no idea why dERA (3.36) likes him much better than Smith, but even then, Smith has been about one-quarter of a run better overall. And Canning turns into a negative pitch matchup rating if you add in pitch modeling that’s about half a run worse than Smith.

DEF: -5
BSR: 1

I don’t believe that Smith is an All-Star (although every team gets at least one, so he probably is), but he’s been the better pitcher than Canning under the hood. Weird things happen in mid-week day games. I think this line is too large again, but have learned my lesson and am going to split a unit between F5 (+162) and full game (+205). Action Network won't let you edit anymore until the day of the game for some reason. F5 meant to be 0.5u if you're following there. 

Red Sox @ Brewers

Brayan Bello struck out a season high seven of the 18 Orioles he faced last time out, but was pulled after four innings and 87 pitches. Fangraphs doesn’t have Statcast info for this start, but BaseballSavant says he was throwing some cutters against LHBs. That’s new and a 30 CSW% (one swing, two called). That said, Bello’s a volatile arm, who has gotten into some trouble with LHBs blasting him for a .354 wOBA, .355 xwOBA since last year. His estimators range from a 4.27 dERA to a 5.53 xERA.
DEF: 7
BSR: 9

Freddy Peralta struck out just three of 21 Pirates last time out and has struck out more than five just once in his last seven starts since exceeding that number in all of his first four starts. He continues to manage contact well at just one-third of batted balls reaching a 95 mph EV, but his K-BB is down to 14.9% (10.9% last seven starts) with estimators over that span reaching into the mid-fours, despite pitch modeling seeing no fall off in his stuff.

DEF: -2
BSR: 6

A pair of volatile pitchers, where I’ll still concede that Peralta is the better arm, even with this rough patch. However, the Red Sox have the much better offense, where they’re fairly evenly matched in all other aspects. +130 is too much here.

Athletics @ Astros

Counter to expectations for J.P. Sears against an entirely right-handed lineup, Luis Severino should be able to sweep the Astros away. The pitch he’s used to dominate RHBs (.275 wOBA, .284 xwOBA since last year) has a 59 PitchingBot grade and 116 Pitching+ this year and carries just an 89 wRC+ against it. He has some strong pitch run value matchups against the heart of this Houston order.
DEF: -10
BSR: -4

Lance McCullers struck out a season high eight of 22 Mariners last time out, but still walked three and has just a 6.9 K-BB% through four starts. His top velocity (92.1 mph) is still a full mph behind his 2022 average velocity, so he smartly increased his slider usage to 42.9% against Seattle and still allowed a 63.6 HardHit%. McCullers’ best estimator is a 4.75 dERA with terrible pitch modeling and a poor pitch matchup rating with or without it.

DEF: 8
BSR: 1

Severino hasn’t been great, but I still like him to prevent damage against an entirely right-handed lineup, while McCullers has proven he can throw his slider and miss more bats, but not much else. I’ll take OAK –102 (F5).

Pirates @ Diamondbacks

Paul Skenes has struck out 17 of his last 52 batters and more than six in back to back starts for the first time this year. He’s up to a 19.5 K-BB% without an estimator higher than 3.22 (SIERA).
DEF: 1
BSR: 5

Zac Gallen has struck out 21 of 47 batters with 12.2 innings of one run ball on five hits in New York this year. Outside of New York, Gallen has struck out 42 of 220 (19.1%) with 26 walks (11.8%). Estimators ranging from a 4.17 xERA to a 4.64 FIP are well below his 5.25 ERA (69.4 LOB%), but it’s still much worse than we’re used to seeing from Gallen.

DEF: -1
BSR: -4

Imagine if Paul Skenes was backed by a decent offense. Pirates still need to score to win.

Marlins @ Padres

Sandy Alcantara has a 4.00 Bot ERA, but not another estimator within half a run. LHBs have a .374 wOBA and .403 xwOBA against him. I’ll refrain from further embarrassing Sandy.  
DEF: -2
BSR: -1

Kyle Hart was shipped out to AAA after five starts with a 4.12 Bot ERA and 4.25 xERA, but no other estimators below four and a half. His 1.2 K-BB% in four AAA starts is apparently impressive enough to recall him.

DEF: 0
BSR: 2

I’m going to pretend this game doesn’t exist.

Cardinals @ Orioles

Miles Mikolas hasn’t struck out more than six in a start and just twice more than four, but somehow has a 3.67 FIP not too much higher than his 3.51 ERA because just three of his 17 barrels (10.4%) have left the park. As you can imagine, all remaining estimators exceed four with some around five, but he does have a strong matchup rating against the Orioles, who suck against sinkers (-1.7 wSI/C). I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this because his run value has spiked due to a couple of pitches being classified as knuckle curves, which may be incorrect.
DEF: 11
BSR: -3

Cade Povich has struck out 15 of his last 44 batters with three runs over 10.2 innings, but has also walked five with…well, I can’t see what kind of contact on Fangraphs because they don’t have his game against Boston registered. Suffice to say a 50% hard hit rate in the first of those two starts matches his 48.2 HardHit% on the season, generating a 5.86 xERA, which is his only estimator above a 4.86 ERA. He does not match up well with Cardinals nearly across the board, but that’s also due in large part to curveballs with wonky sample sizes. Donovan and Herrera match up run values best against him.

DEF: -6
BSR: 3

FanDuel is including this game, weather willing (cool, potentially wet and windy). I don’t have any interest in either of these pitchers and weather may pull us off Cardinal bats.

Bullpen last 30 day stats below. 

Braves @ Phillies

A few starts after it looked like AJSS was getting a grip on this major league thing, Washington trounces him for seven runs in a performance where he walked three with just one strikeout. I don’t know what to make of the guy. He has one decent pitch (splitter 51 PB, 106 P+), but the only pitch he throws more often (fastball 49, 88) seems to get him trouble sometimes. Batters have a 129 wRC+ against it. As is sometimes the case with splitter heavy pitchers, AJSS has a large reverse split. RHBs have a .374 wOBA and .423 xwOBA against him since last year with Castellanos showing the best work against splitters, but I’m sure their LHBs can handle poorly placed fastballs too.
DEF: 11
BSR: 0

After four straight quality starts with two runs allowed in each, Zach Wheeler now hasn’t allowed a single run over his last 25.2 innings. And I thought this was the year the decline might kick in. He’s solved his issues against LHBs and is running a career best 27.5 K-BB% with his typically excellent contact management. He doesn’t have an estimator above three and his 3.00 dERA can GTFO.

DEF: -13
BSR: -3

Wheeler would easily be a top three arm for me on FanDuel, if rain weren’t likely to wash this away. It’s the same system that pushed the Mets to move their game up to 1pm on Wednesday. Facing an in-division opponent did not motivate the Phillies to do the same.

Reds @ Royals

An injury halted Hunter Greene’s assault on the league. A before and after IL sandwich has him facing just 28 batters in his last two starts and struggling in his return against the Cubs (6.0 SwStr%), though he AVERAGED 100 mph in both starts. A look at his season work to date includes a 2.54 ERA not too far distanced from estimators ranging from a 2.28 Bot ERA to a 3.79 dERA (again, I don’t know WTF dERA sees). Greene has dominated batters from either side of the plate below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA since last year and dominates the pitch matchup ratings if you add in pitch modeling. No batter in the projected Kansas City lineup matches up positively in pitch run values against him.
DEF: 0
BSR: -4

The Noah Cameron breakout game didn’t take long. He struck out eight of 25 Twins last time out, as all four of his non-fastball pitches graded very well. The fastball is his weakness and he seems to understand that at just 31% usage and 24% against the Twins. Cameron’s 18.8 K-BB% at AAA does offer some optimism that he’ll be up to the task against mediocre major league lineups. In fact, in a small sample he dominates the projected Reds lineup from a pitch run value standpoint and you see him below at the top of our pitch matchup ratings against a team that exceeds a 24 K% on the road and against LHP this year.

DEF: 4
BSR: 1

I was ready to tout Cameron here, but his price tag has already caught up. I still don’t hate him on a five game slate with two pitchers. The problems with Greene are his price tag against an offense that doesn’t strike out and slight workload concerns. He threw 83 pitches in his return and should be good for at least 90 here though.

Rockies @ Cubs

Tanner Gordon’s 9.1 K-BB% at AAA has actually increased to 11.5% in two major league starts, both at Coors against the Tigers and Yankees. That and the 35 HardHit% are impressive, while the 51.3 LOB% is unfortunate. Every single system still projects him above four and a half and the pitch modeling is worst on the board.
DEF: -7
BSR: 5

Matthew Boyd snapped a three start quality start streak in which he struck out 23 without a walk by allowing four runs over as many innings in Cincinnati last time out. He struck out three with two walks, despite only four hard hit batted balls. Good news is that the Rockies should get him back on track. On the season, all of Boyd’s estimators are within half a run of his 3.42 ERA. He matches up marginally against the Rockies in terms of pitch matchup ratings, but the only two stand out bats against his arsenal are Beck and Tovar.

DEF: 3
BSR: 1

Pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley (yes, again) may save Gordon, but if a matchup against the Rockies didn’t already vault Boyd far enough up the board, expected conditions at Wrigley make him my top pitcher on the slate and sort of the 1A value which could also improve the more pitcher friendly the forecast becomes.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Blue Jays @ Rangers

Paxton Schutlz, a multi-inning reliever both in the majors and at AAA this season is scheduled to start this game. He’s thrown as many as 46 pitches in a major league game recently, but those 46 pitches were on Sunday, three days ago. My assumption remains that Schultz is an opening vehicle for Eric Lauer, who has thrown at least three innings in four of his five outings and had been doing it with increased velocity until his first start of any length last time out (4.1 IP, 85 pitches). Through 16.1 innings, estimators range widely from a 3.73 SIERA to a 5.08 Bot ERA. So you don’t know if or when he'll pitch or how he’ll pitch. LHBs exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and Corey Seager is expected back tonight.
DEF: 10
BSR: -2

Tyler Mahle allowed three runs for the first time this season last time out and has struck out just six of his last 46 batters with five walks. His .231 BABIP, 84.5 LOB% and 3.2 HR/FB all still have a long way to go before we can start buying into an ERA that’s more than two runs below all non-FIP estimators except for a 3.35 Bot ERA. Pitch modeling loves the cutter and splitter with the former plus the slider really matching up well against the Blue Jays, but batters from either side of the plate have xwOBAs at least 50 points higher than their actual wOBAs against Mahle this year.

DEF: 4
BSR: -6

Lauer is untouchable here because we just don’t know for sure. His lack of upside is not worth the risk. Mahle is currently over-valued and maybe one of the worst values on the board against a contact prone Toronto lineup (only two projected exceeding 20% vs RHP since last year). That said, no Toronto batters stands out strongly against him from a pitch value standpoint. I hate booting an entire game on what now looks like a five game slate on either site (weather is projected to be bad in Baltimore and worse in Philadelphia), but there’s really not much here.

That's the DFS perspective, but with the heavy regression Mahle has coming, I'm also siding with the Blue Jays +114. Whether it's Lauer or a full on bullpen assault, the Jays have the fourth best bullpen estimators L30 days. For similar reasons as last night, I'm also on the under (8.5 -105). Globe Life has moved to a slightly negative run environment via Statcast 3 year factors recently, both teams have great defenses and neither team reaches a 100 wRC+ Hm/Rd/ v RHP/LHP or L7 days. TOR's 96 mark against RHP is as good as it gets. 

Yankees @ Angels

Clarke Schmidt struck out a season high eight of 21 Rockies at Coors last time out and now finds himself in another great west coast spot. Schmidt should benefit from a predominantly right-handed LAA lineup, while every estimator except for a 4.60 dERA (again) falls below his 4.58 ERA, running as low as a 3.36 xERA with quality contact management and a 3.94 Bot ERA. He matches up fairly well against everyone except Logan O’Hoppe with small sample run values against cutters and curves. This (sample sizes on less frequently thrown pitches) lends itself to a more flukish nature, though he should be fine against a lineup with a ton of strikeouts in it (seven projected above 25% vs RHP since last year).
DEF: 7
BSR: -1

Yusei Kikuchi put 11 of the 26 Marlins he faced on base with just four strikeouts, but none of the them scored in his last start. The contact profile is around league average with 9.1% Barrels/BBE his second lowest rate in five years. The problem is that his K-BB is the same number, 9.2%. Kikuchi has been fortunate with an 82.3 LOB% after the Miami start. He does have a 3.61 Bot ERA (pitch modeling still loves the spinny stuff), but I dare you to guess his only other estimator not more than a run above his 3.17 ERA. Yup, it’s a 4.07 dERA. The top third of the projected Yankee lineup (same as Tuesday night) matches up best against Kikuchi from a pitch run value perspective.

DEF: -19
BSR: 0

A few things to get to here. Schmidt is my 1B to Boyd’s 1A in terms of value, though I have Boyd a bit higher overall. I’m also going under Kikuchi’s K prop (5.5 +124), taking his 8.8 SwStr% lower than his rate of barrels against one of the league’s best offenses in one of the most power friendly parks in the league. Lastly, this didn’t work out well on Tuesday night as a Goldschmidt home run ball that would have cleared this number landed just foul in the ninth, but I’m going to back to the well again with the Yankees to clear 4.5 runs (-130).

Nationals @ Mariners

Trevor Williams has been roasted for 22 runs (21 earned) over his last 24.2 IP with a 10.6 K-BB% and just four barrels, but a 44.6 HardHit%. The good news is that the 52.9 LOB% will regress. Further good news, Pitching+ still considers the fastball a strong pitch, while PitchingBot considers it one of the best fastballs in the game (69 season, 67 last five starts). I mean, there’s very little difference between the fastballs he and Hunter Greene throw (if you ignore the close to 15 mph velocity difference). The heater (loosely termed) drives a 3.36 Bot ERA with a 3.79 xERA his only other estimator below four, although all are more than two runs below his 6.39 ERA. However, Williams is near the bottom of the board in run value pitch matchup because no matter how well the fastball has graded, it’s performed very poorly. LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .323 xwOBA against him since last year, but RHBs are below .265.
DEF: -13
BSR: -1

George Kirby allowed five of the 19 batters he faced in his first start of the season to cross the plate. He did strike out four with one walk and an 11.1 SwStr% and did not allow a barrel with half his contact on the ground, but also half of his contact reaching a 95 mph EV. Hard contact is the least predictive thing after a single start, so its’ mostly good news. His velocity was fine too, but the pitch modeling was subpar, especially on his fastball (29.2%, 20 PB, 79 P+) and this is the issue that has him at the very bottom of the board in the last graphic. For all their faults, the Nationals have a young group of hitters that smash fastballs at a top third of the league rate.

DEF: -5
BSR: -6

Weather conditions elsewhere may not make Seattle the most negative run environment on the board, but it’s always at least one of them most negative. I don’t hate taking a shot that Kirby will put it together in his second start. There were some signs and the park could protect him some if all else fails. I’m selling on Williams right now, but would only attack him with LHBs here. Raleigh grades out best against his entire arsenal when considering pitch run values, Tellez best against the fastball only. I don’t necessarily hate some Washington bat exposure on a small slate either.