Tuesday 5/27 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Dodgers @ Guardians

Dustin May has struck out a season high eight Angels and Diamondbacks back to back. He’s done this by pretty much abandoning his four-seamer and throwing sinkers or sliders over 80% of the time. He’s going to need the strikeouts if he’s going to sustain the 44.8 HardHit%, which has not improved over his last two starts.
DEF: 4
BSR: 0

Tanner Bibee also struck out a season high eight Tigers last time out, three more than his previous season high. He also changed his pitch mix a bit with more sliders and a season high 10.4% curveballs with fewer cutters and sinkers.
DEF: 6
BSR: 4

I guess it’s time to see if either one these pitchers is going to find their way back to prominence.

Cardinals @ Orioles

While Andre Pallante’s three start velocity spike continued at a season high 95.3 mph last time out, he walked four Tigers after none in his previous two starts with just three strikeouts. His 12.7 K-BB% over this three start span is still twice his current season rate (6.3%) and he’s sacrificed few ground balls (55%) with a reduction in hard hit rate (41%) to do it.
DEF: 12
BSR: -4

For the first time this season, Tomo Sugano threw more than 20% sliders and didn’t strike out more than four batters or generated a double digit SwStr%. The problem is, he’s only done it two other times. Something’s gotta give here and it’s most likely the .225 BABIP and 87.5 LOB%.
DEF: -4
BSR: 2

Pallante pitching around 94.5 mph or better could be a moderately interesting pitcher.

Giants @ Tigers

Worst start of the season for Logan Webb last time out in Kansas City, allowing more than three runs for just the second time. A 61.1 HardHit% and 35.3 LD% led to a .529 BABIP, driving his season BABIP up to .341 with his hard hit rate at 43.8%, but just 4.9% Barrels/BBE with a 57.4 GB%. A career best 21.1 K-BB% matches all estimators within half a run of his 2.67 ERA.
DEF: 3
BSR: 2

There’s nothing wrong with Jack Flaherty’s 20.9 K-BB%, but he’s allowed 11 home runs on 15 barrels (10.9%). His 4.39 FIP matches a 4.43 FIP, but is a bit above a 4.14 xERA. Still not exactly what Detroit was hoping for and then his 4.84 Bot ERA…?? Flaherty sat at a season low 91.9 mph last time out, but still struck out eight without a barrel and 33% hard hit rate. Who knows?
DEF: 1
BSR: 5

This should be a pitching duel. Flaherty has become so volatile.

Braves @ Phillies

Spencer Strider sat an even 95 mph (2.2 mph down from 2023) in his first start back from the IL for the second time this season. He threw more changeups (13.3%), but struck out just three Nationals in 4.1 innings with four runs.
DEF: 13
BSR: 0

Ranger Suarez has allowed three runs in 20.2 innings since his horrific first start of the season. His velocity did drop to 92.1 mph, closer to where he sat least year (91.8) last time out with a season low 30% ground ball rate and three walks, but it was Coors and the Rockies only hit three balls hard (15%). His 3.70 ERA matches a 3.69 SIERA through four starts, but just one barrel and a 24.3 HardHit% has his xERA at just 2.38. Pitch modeling (especially PitchingBot) is more of a fan this year than last, but let’s see if that continues if the velocity drop sustains.
DEF: -13
BSR: -1

It's usually lamentable when Spencer Strider isn’t on the main daily fantasy slate, but I doubt very many will mind it here. Let’s hope he’s holding back.

Twins @ Rays

Joe Ryan picked up a suspended game his last time out and sat a season low 91.5 mph for five innings of mediocre performance. Considering his season high 93.9 mph velocity the previous time out, I’m inclined to ignore the odd circumstances. While all estimators are above his 2.68 ERA (.231 BABIP, 85.8 LOB%), they run no higher than a 3.46 xFIP and Ryan rates strongly in our pitch matchup ratings. The Rays are a neutral 0.00 wFA/C against fastballs with Josh Lowe the only batter showing a positive pitch matchup on the pitch and every Ray showing a negative pitch matchup in the game.
DEF: 5
BSR: 0

Taj Bradley has increased his strikeouts by one in each of his last two starts, tying a season high seven of 23 batters against Houston last time out. At his second lowest velocity of the season (95.6 mph), he threw a season high 59.5% fastballs. He generated just nine whiffs. We can’t blame it on the RHBs because he really has no split, which would have helped against a predominantly right-handed Twins lineup too. His estimators run from a 3.48 xERA (5.0% Barrels/BBE, 36.6 HardHit%) to a 5.24 Bot ERA that doesn’t like anything he throws. His 4.61 ERA isn’t much above contact neutral estimators with all eight of his barrels leaving the yard this year.
DEF: -2
BSR: -5

A bit behind the top guys tonight, due to environment, although this park only has a 102 Park Run Factor so far, Ryan is a back end top five guy for me tonight and a reasonable value below $10K. I’d certainly sprinkle in some usage in multi-entry, but am not sure he’d be my top pick for Tuesday. I consider Bradley adequately priced here. Lee and Lewis match up well against him from a fastball perspective and there may be another small sample thing going on with Castro jumping out against curveballs, a pitch Bradley only throws 13.9% anyway. 

White Sox @ Mets

Jonathan Cannon is a step down from Shane Smith, but not awful. He’s not walked a single one of the last 95 batters he’s faced with just 15 strikeouts, but also just a 36.7 HardHit%. A 15.8 K-BB% over this span has boosted him into double digits on the season (10.8%) with estimators ranging from a 3.92 Bot ERA to a 4.61 xFIP. Pitching in a lot of pitcher friendly Chicago weather, only six of his 17 barrels have left the yard and that will likely regress towards more home runs in the future. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against Cannon since last year with RHBs above .330.  
DEF: -9
BSR: 1

Tylor Megill matched a season high, striking out 10 of 20 at Fenway last time out, but still couldn’t make it through five as he ran into fifth inning trouble. I guess you just had to be there if you’re saying, “but he only allowed five base runners all game long.” The line does look a dash better than the performance, though it was encouraging as he had driven his walk rate into double digits with a 14.8% mark over his previous five starts. Amazingly, Megill has sustained a .333 BABIP thus far despite only allowing more than four hits in three of his 10 starts. That goes back to his 31 K%, though with a 10.9 SwStr% that may have trouble supporting it all season. The good news is a 12.8 SwStr% over his last three starts.
DEF: -8
BSR: 1

At $8.8K on either site, Megill is a decent value on Fanduel and perhaps adequately priced on DK simply because he’s recorded just six sixth inning outs all season and four of those in one game. Obviously, he sits near the top of the pitch matchup ratings because he’s facing the White Sox and bumps up to second when you include favorable pitch modeling. Cannon is a better opponent for Mets bats. Alonso and Baty match up best from a pitch run value standpoint, though Vientos is the only one of the projected front six that doesn't grade very well. On the other hand, an unstable Megill with a struggling offense (CWS 32 point better wRC+ L7 days) and equally bad defenses this year by Statcast have me considering the dog here. 

Reds @ Royals

Brady Singer revenge spot, but you do you really want to back a guy who has struck out 14 of his last 109 batters with 13 walks in a positive run environment against a projected lineup with only two batters above an 18.2 K% against RHP since last year? LHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against  him since last year. With 11.8% Barrels/BBE this year, Singer’s best estimator is a 4.39 xFIP. Drew Waters stands out against his sinker, while Garcia and Witt seem to have overall positive matchups by pitch values.
DEF: 0
BSR: -4

Bullpen game confirmed and even Daniel Lynch confirmed to open. He has one previous start, facing nine batters.
DEF: 4
BSR: 1

Bullpen games are yuck, but considering the Cincinnati offense doesn’t normally offer much anyway and that Kansas City remains power suppressive despite it’s positive offensive environment, we probably don’t really care much.

Red Sox @ Brewers

We still don’t know who’s opening for Boston’s alleged bullpen game here. I’ve used Cooper Criswell as a spot saver because Roster Resource has guessed him, but it doesn’t really matter much here either.
DEF: 11
BSR: 9

The Brewers have been conservative with Aaron Civale, facing just 14 and 18 batters in his two starts He’s allowed four home runs on as many barrels (17.4%), which is one concern. A 6.3 K-BB% is another. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .310 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: 0
BSR: 5

Can’t really do much with the bullpen game. Weather probably leaves the roof closed with 92 park run factor and power environment that favors LHBs slightly (107). We're not missing much in the Milwaukee lineup. I would certainly be on some Boston bats considering Civale’s poor results. In a small sample, nearly the entire Boston lineup matches up well run value wise. They have hit splitters, sliders and curveballs very well as a group.

Rockies @ Cubs

German Marquez has thrown seven innings with one earned run allowed in each of his last two home starts (Padres, Phillies), but did get smoked in Arizona in between. While the curveball was responsible for all 13 of his swinging strikes against the Phillies, it did not grade well. While Marquez does have a 4.46 xERA, it’s because he’s allowed just 4.9% Barrels/BBE with a 45.3 HardHit% and below average ground ball rate, which doesn’t seem sustainable. And that’s the best of his estimators. The entire Cubs lineup grades well against him, Kyle Tucker the best by pitch run value matchups. None of this surprising, as Marquez has some of the worst pitch modeling on the board (worst Bot ERA). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -3
BSR: 5

Since striking out five of 18 Mets without a walk behind an opener in his debut, Cade Horton has struck out just five of 45 Marlins and White Sox with three walks since. The pitch modeling, the estimators, all except a 3.39 xERA and 5.25 FIP with three of four barrels leaving the park, are all pretty average. Contact neutral estimators are around four and a half.
DEF: 3
BSR: 2

We’re expecting pitcher friendly weather, though possibly not that extreme. Against the Rockies, it’s enough to make Horton usable even at an $8K price tag. Although, pitching marginally against the Marlins and White Sox has me concerned. The top four in the Colorado projected lineup do rate well against him from a pitch value perspective.

Bullpen stats last 30 days. 

Blue Jays @ Rangers

Bowden Francis has failed to complete five innings in five of his last six starts. His 11 K-BB% is a 6.2 point reduction from last season, but the bigger problem has been his contact profile blowing up (11.9% Barrels/BBE, 49.1 HardHit%). Pitch modeling is still favorable with a 3.95 Bot ERA more than half a run below any other estimator, while LHBs are up to a .332 wOBA and .349 xwOBA against him since last year. Perhaps more importantly here, RHBs are below .290. The Joshes, Smith and Jung, matchup best against him from a pitch run value standpoint, but the latter with a strong small sample mark against splitters.
DEF: 10
BSR: -1

Sure, a 94.4 LOB%, but Nathan Eovaldi has allowed just three runs over his last 36.2 innings with a 23.7 K-BB% (24.1% season) and mere 34.8 HardHit% with just six barrels. A 3.22 xERA and 3.67 Bot ERA are his worst estimators, yet he’s still top of the pitch matchup ratings board with or without pitch modeling. Small sample issues bumps guys like Barger and Lukes against his splitter, but I’d probably ignore that.
DEF: 6
BSR: -6

First point, Eovaldi exceeds $10K on either site against a team with limited strikeout upside, thus I have him very close to Joe Ryan, who has his own problem with run environment. Texas actually has a 96 park run factor last three years with the roof closed. The problem for Texas is quality LHBs with Seager on the IL and that’s why I’m favoring an under play here (8 -106). Two great defenses and the fourth best pen estimators for the Jays L30 days too. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

That said, if you can find a quality LH Texas bat, go ahead.

Athletics @ Astros

Over his last two starts against the Angels and in San Francisco, J.P. Sears has allowed 10 runs in just nine innings with five home runs on as many barrels (14.3%). The 14.2 K-BB% is as far above league average as the 42.9 HardHit% is worse than. Both just a bit. While any park is an upgrade for Sears this year, the problem is in facing an entirely right-handed lineup, where his one strong pitch (sweeper) will be less effective. RHBs have a .331 wOBA and .339 xwOBA against Sears since last year. Jeremy Pena is the key bat against fastballs, while Paredes is a poor matchup for fastballs and changeups.
DEF: -10
BSR: -5

Hunter Brown comes off his worst outing of the season, allowing three home runs on as many barrels in Tampa Bay and striking out fewer than five for just the third time this year. It snapped a string of five straight starts with exactly nine strikeouts (one out shy of all quality starts). While his 3.59 Bot ERA is more than half a run above any other estimator a .250 BABIP and 83.7 LOB% are likely to regress. Brown grades as a top three arm among pitch matchup ratings with Jacob Wilson and Miguel Andujar the only two batters in the positive against him using only pitch run values.
DEF: 10
BSR: 1

Stating the obvious case here, Sears could struggle against this lineup. Both offenses are above average and the Oakland defense and bullpen are both near the bottom of the league. I mean, the A’s have the second worst pen estimators L30 days even with Miller. That leads me towards an over here (7.5 -110).

Now, what about Hunter Brown from a daily fantasy standpoint? The A’s have a dangerous offense in a neutral park and I have him just barely behind Ryan and Eovaldi. Not a ton of value at his price. My top two guys are yet to come.

Yankees @ Angels

Carlos Rodon has allowed eight runs (seven earned) over his last 42.2 innings and four of them came in one start in Sacramento. A 20.9 K-BB%, 7.9% Barrels/BBE and 38.8 HardHit% are all his best as a Yankee. A 3.42 FIP and 4.04 Bot ERA are his only estimators more than half a run removed from Rodon’s 2.88 ERA with two-thirds of his barrels turning into home runs. Without pitch modeling, he has the best pitch run value matchup on the board today.
DEF: 7
BSR: 0

Tyler Anderson walked six A’s without a strikeout last time out. His 9.8 BB% is 1.3 points higher than his K-BB%, which is a career low, though his contact profile still remains elite. That produces a 3.82 xERA that’s still above his 3.60 ERA (.223 BABIP, 80.4 LOB%) with everything else nearly a run or more higher. The top third of the projected Yankee lineup against LHP (Goldy, Grisham, Judge) match up extremely well against Anderson’s arsenal (cutters, changeups) from run value standpoints.
DEF: -14
BSR: 0

Before Sacramento, this was the most prolific run environment in California, mostly from an extremely power friendly standpoint. That should help Yankee bats on Tuesday night. Add in an awful defense and bullpen and I’m playing the Yankees to go over 4.5 runs (-142).

That’s half the equation. The other half is Rodon is my 1A and a strong value at a high price point, but maybe a slightly lesser value than my 1B. RHBs have just a .238 wOBA against him this season.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Pirates @ Diamondbacks

Twenty-five year old Mike Burrows did not pitch well in his major league debut against the Brewers from a surface standpoint (three strikeouts, two walks, two home runs, 20 batters faced). However, he did generate an 11.7 SwStr% with only a single barrel and 33.3 HardHit%. Pitch modeling really liked everything (fastball, slider, changeup) except the curveball. None the less, Burrows has projections around four and a half, despite posting a 23.1 K-BB% over 32.1 AAA innings, which is about five points higher than his work at the same level in a similar number of innings last year. Fangraphs, which gives him a 40+ Future Value grade sees an eventual home in the bullpen, but that analysis was made in March and may have changed with a more impressive performance.
DEF: -2
BSR: 5

A few starts back, Corbin Burnes proclaimed his cutter back after shutting out the Dodgers over seven innings with five strikeouts. The velocity was up a mph, but with the same shape.

Burnes then struck out 10 Rockies in six shutout innings, retaining the increased velocity and adding an inch of movement. Better, but still not the same cutter of old.

Burnes then struck out eight of 26 Dodgers over seven innings with three runs, all on a three run shot later in the game. The cutter sat the same as his season rates in velocity and break.

Additionally, Burnes mentioned in an interview with Eno Sarris that he was not going to bring back his best cutter. As if he can do it, but prefers not to?

This is not the work of the cutter, but Burnes’ willingness to attack batters with additional pitches (sinkers, sliders, curves). All three grade as elite pitches via Pitching+ with the former two grading elite by PitchingBot. Burnes still has estimators ranging from a 3.72 xFIP to 4.10 Bot ERA, which is pretty marginal and I’m not sure his 22.4 K-BB% over this three start span will hold, but at least we have something to hang it on now and it’s not the cutter. At least not as predominantly as it has been in the past.
DEF: 6
BSR: -5

I’m not playing Burrows against the Diamondbacks, but have seen enough under the hood that I’m not jamming D’Backs into my lineups full force. While I’m still not ready to proclaim Burnes back to being a Cy Young contender, this is a great matchup for him. The Pirates do have a couple of standouts against cutters (McCutchen, Horwitz) in not large samples, but they are one of the worst offenses in the league with a projected lineup that includes five of the first six above a 22.5 K% vs RHP since last year. Burnes is my 1B to Rodon’s 1A and the slightly superior value at a slightly lower price.

Nationals @ Mariners

Mitchell Parker has allowed 23 runs (22 earned) over his last 23 innings with 14 walks and 16 strikeouts. However, that’s reverted to a 15.9 K-BB% against the Braves and Cardinals over his last three starts, despite an inability to cease the onslaught of runs. That’s because his hard hit rate has jumped to 60% in these starts. The overall picture is includes contact neutral estimators below four, though I’m not buying the 4.6% Barrels/BBE with a 45.4 HardHit% with a league average ground ball rate. His 4.31 dERA and 4.57 Bot ERA fit the 4.39 ERA. The SIERA and xFIP exceed five. It all boils down to which set of estimators you believe in.
DEF: -13
BSR: -1

Logan Evans struck out a season high seven of 26 White Sox last time out, but also allowed three of his five home runs, though with just two barrels. The contact profile (6.9% Barrels/BBE, 35.6 HardHit%) is more impressive than the 10.3 K-BB%. His 14.4 SwStr% against the White Sox was his first start in double digits. RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Evans.
DEF: 0
BSR: -6

Parker matches up well from a pitch matchup run value standpoint against most Mariners (Raleigh the exception). He’s cheap enough to be considered in an SP2 spot in a great park. Seattle strikes out a quarter of the time at home and against LHP. Ironically, I’d say the same about Evans, though he matches up more marginally pitch matchup wise and the Nationals don’t strike out as much. There’s just very little in terms of value below the $8K price point tonight.

Marlins @ Padres

After four starts below 95 mph, Max Meyer has been above that velocity each of his last two starts in which he’s struck out 11 of 44 with one walk and a single barrel. The overall body of work includes a 4.31 xERA that matches his 4.15 ERA, but all other non-FIP estimators are below three and a half, including a 3.47 Bot ERA that pushes him towards the top of the pitch matchup ratings, only if he include pitch modeling.
DEF: -4
BSR: -1

Stephen Kolek has kept 54.1% of his contact on the ground, generating just three barrels, all in the same start, his only home one, against the Mariners. However, he’s also allowed a 50% hard hit rate with a 7.2 SwStr% that can’t support his 20.2 K% and an 83.3 LOB% that further pushes his ERA at least half a run below all estimators. The Marlins don’t really do much with what he throws, mostly the slider.
DEF: 0
BSR: 2

Tatis and Cronenworth and to a lesser extent, Machado, all matchup with Meyer’s arsenal fairly well. He costs more than $8K in a great park against a struggling offense, but still one that rarely strikes out. Koleck is a bit over-priced. I also had a lean towards the Marlins in this game, but wanted to look into the pitchers more and make sure I saw what I thought I saw. While I have been able to confirm this, the line has dropped significantly to the point of borderline value and I'll probably just sit this one out.