Friday 5/23 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Cubs @ Reds

Three straight quality starts for Matthew Boyd, who has struck out 23 of 69 batters without a walk, driving his K-BB on the season up to 18.7%. He’s allowed five barrels with a 48.6 HardHit% in those three starts as a trade off. Estimators range from a 3.39 dERA to a 3.96 Bot ERA on the season with a lower K-BB%, but better contact profile in earlier starts.
DEF: 4
BSR: 2

Hunter Greene is returning from a two week IL stint without a rehab performance and I was just about to play an Under before seeing this. He was off to a Cy Young worthy start with a 30.1 K-BB% and 3.88 dERA, but only one other estimator (3.06 FIP) reaching three.
DEF: 1
BSR: 3

Brewers @ Pirates

Freddy Peralta has just a 21.5 K% and 12.6 K-BB% over his last six starts, but has maintained a low rate of barrels (5.4% of contact) and hard contact (33.7%) over this span. Thus, his 3.18 xERA this season is only estimator not more than a run above his 2.59 ERA (.234 BABIP, 85.8 LOB%), running as high as a 4.31 dERA. Peralta runs towards the top of the pitch matchup ratings against a Pittsburgh offense that doesn’t hit fastballs (-0.99 wFA/C) or much of anything else.
DEF: 5
BSR: -3

Six quality starts for Paul Skenes in his last seven attempts. They haven’t all been stress free, walking 11 of 73 batters before walking just one Phillie his last time out. Maybe you’re surprised that his 18.9 K-BB% isn’t elite, but just 4.3% Barrels/BBE puts his 2.50 xERA on the same plane as a 2.44 ERA. Contact neutral estimators, including his pitch modeling are in the low three range, partially because classification systems aren’t sure what to do with his “splikier”.
DEF: -4
BSR: 5

Look…Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the league and about three quarters of a run ahead of Peralta, but the Pirates have to score to win and I’m sure they can do that. Large defensive edge to the Brewers too here and I think +122 (F5) is just a bit too much.

Giants @ Nationals

Two pitch starters usually end up struggling a bit either third time through the order in a single game or they’ve pitched a few games. Sometimes that changes if both pitches are elite and you can make an argument the Landon Roupp’s curveball is (42.1%, 65 PitchingBot, 115 Pitching+), but neither of his pitches has a positive run value. After striking out 29 of his first 93 batters this year (15.5 SwStr%), he’s hit a tougher part of his schedule, striking out just 18 of his last 110 batters without a double digit SwStr% since. I’m not sure how he’s allowed 7.9% Barrels/BBE with an above average ground ball rate and 30 HardHit%, so I don’t entirely trust the xERA and it makes sense with other estimators ranging from 3.63 (xFIP) to 3.79 (SIERA). That’s with the great start and he doesn’t have the greatest matchup here against a Washington offense that has been quality against fastballs (0.43 wFA/C).
DEF: 3
BSR: -3

Mackenzie Gore had the oddest of starts last time out, striking out nine of 23 Orioles (19.6 SwStr%) with an .833 BABIP failing to get him out of the fourth inning. I mean, he also had an 83.3 HardHit%, so perhaps deserved, but even then, not every hard hit ball falls and only two of them were barreled. So, the xERA is up to 3.69, matching the 3.67 ERA and the contact profile (see Statcast table) is a bit of a problem, but with a 28 K-BB%, an also matching 3.57 Bot ERA is his only other estimator above three.
DEF: -11
BSR: 4

Let’s say, worst case scenario, the xERA and Bot ERA are correct. Gore is still the better pitcher and far better pitcher than Roupp’s recent work. With Washington also having the better offense, they should probably be favored here (-108). Follow RockyJade on Action Network for more.

Blue Jays @ Rays

In one start and four appearances, covering 12. Innings, Eric Lauer has struck out 14 of 44 batters with three walks. The impressive 25 K-BB% is tempered by four barrels (15.4%), awful pitch modeling and projections above four and a quarter.
DEF: 9
BSR: 1

Drew Rasmussen hit six innings for the first time this season with six shutout innings in Miami. His 2.93 ERA is about half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.42 xFIP to a 3.82 FIP outside of a 2.83 Bot ERA that loves the cutter and fastball, two pitches the Blue Jays don’t do well against.
DEF: -7
BSR: -5

I was set to side with the Blue Jays here, but first, the pitch matchup ratings, and second, the 71 wRC+ for the Rays against LHP didn’t add up. That latter mark comes with a 13.7 K-BB% and 8.6 HR/FB where they should probably be closer to average, if not just a bit below.

Guardians @ Tigers

In his season and Guardians debut, Slade Cecconi struck out eight of 20 Reds (18.2 SwStr%) without a walk. His velocity was up a full mph (maybe adrenaline, but he was up 0.5 mph in AAA) and he showed off a new cutter (11.7%, 68 PB, 102 P+). Projections are still around four and a quarter.
DEF: 4
BSR: 4

Just a 5.8 K-BB% with a 3.83 Bot ERA Jackon Jobe’s only estimator not more than one-third of a run above his 4.12 ERA.
DEF: 8
BSR: -1

If you're already buying the new version of Cecconi, Cleveland would be the play here, but that seems premature. 

Dodgers @ Mets

Oh, no! Clayton Kershaw’s velocity was down to 89.2 mph (89.9 mph 2024, 90.7 2023), as he got smoked by the Angels (five runs, three walks, two strikeouts, 53.3 HardHit%) in his season debut against the Angels. Only his slider reached an average pitching grade on either PitchingBot or Pitching+ with a 5.44 Bot ERA and 88 Pitching+.
DEF: 2
BSR: 4

Two things can be true. That Griffin Canning’s 2.47 ERA is unsustainable with a 91.3 LOB%. And that a 5.9 point increase in K-BB% and the lack of an estimator besides a 4.41 Bot ERA reaching four means he’s improved and even that’s more than half a run better than 2024.
DEF: -6
BSR: 3

Again here, Kershaw projects around four, which may be generous if we see more of what we saw in his first outing. If you’re buying projections, you hold. If you think he’s toast, the Mets would be the side. Again, premature. Let's watch the data build for at least another start. 

Orioles @ Red Sox

I’ve seen both Charlie Morton and Tyler Rogers listed here. Morton’s stuff has played up in his last three relief appearances (9.1 IP) with increased velocity and a 24.6 K-BB% and just one barrel. His contact neutral estimators have dropped below five. Trevor Rogers’ surface results look worse than his 14.9 K-BB% in the minors this year, but he’s also allowed three home runs in 16.2 innings.
DEF: -3
BSR: 2

Lucas Giolito has looked great in two road starts and awful in two at home since returning from Tommy John surgery. The good news is that his velocity was up to 93.9 in his last two starts (one good, one bad), a number he hasn’t averaged since 2021. Five of his seven barrels have left the yard this year. He’s allowed three twice and one in the other two, but one of the three barrel starts was a good one. Giolito is a really difficult analysis right now. A 4.22 SIERA and xFIP agree and are in line with a 4.21 Bot ERA with contact inclusive estimators above five.
DEF: 5
BSR: -3

No line on this game yet, but I’m including it for daily fantasy purposes later on.  

Padres @ Braves

After allowing 12 runs (11 earned) in his previous three starts, Nick Pivetta posted his first quality start in four tries against the Mariners last time out. The 20.7 K-BB% is two points below his last two seasons. The 11.9% Barrels/BBE matches 2023.
DEF: 1
BSR: 1

Chris Sale has struck out 36 of his last 106 batters faced with just six walks and six runs (five earned) allowed over 26.1 innings.
DEF: 12
BSR: 1

Both of these offenses smash sliders, but the Padres are better against fastballs, which is why Pivetta sits in the upper half of the pitch matchup ratings and Sale sits in the bottom half. Still a surprise.

Rangers @ White Sox

Tyler Mahle’s 3.08 FIP and 3.31 Bot ERA are his only estimators within two runs of his 1.47 ERA (.222 BABIP, 87.9 LOB%, two home runs on 11 barrels). Both pitch modeling systems like his splitter (58 PB, 108 P+). The pitch matchup ratings are more a results of the White Sox being awful against everything except curveballs.
DEF: 7
BSR: 0

Sean Burke has walked six with a total of 10 strikeouts in his three quality starts. His 4.63 Bot ERA matches a 4.69 ERA. Every other estimator exceeds five.
DEF: -4
BSR: 1

Temperatures in the low 50s.

Bullpen last 30 day stats below. 

Mariners @ Astros

On the road, Emmerson Hancock has allowed 16 runs in 11.2 innings with nine strikeout and seven walks to the Yankees, Angels and Tigers. Five home runs on eight barrels too. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, which we always check against the Astros.
DEF: -3
BSR: -4

Once batters realized that Ryan Gusto didn’t have much besides a fastball (54 PB, 99 P+), things began to go poorly for him. He’s walked seven of his last 31 batters in relief with just three strikeouts. His best estimator on the season is a 3.98 Bot ERA.
DEF: 8
BSR: 1

I'm trying to figure out why I'm not on the over here, but yeah, 8.5 isn't exactly low in this league anymore. 

Royals @ Twins

Noah Cameron has only allowed one run over 12.2 innings, but his 28.6 K% at AAA has been more than cut in half so far with a 6.2 point drop in SwStr%. Yeah, the .059 BABIP and 100 LOB% will not last.
DEF: 4
BSR: -4

Pablo Lopez has struck out exactly six in five of his last six starts (11 Orioles in the other). He’s posted a 25.6 K-BB% and 34.2 HardHit% with just five barrels (6.3%) over that time. You can find him with some of the best pitch modeling on the slate and near the top of the pitch matchup ratings against a Kansas City offense that has been terrible against fastballs and changeups, his two most thrown pitches. The Royals started his stretch of six strikeouts, but was also the game he left to hit the IL for a couple of weeks in early April.
DEF: -2
BSR: -1

Why am I not on Lopez to strike out at least six again? The projected Kansas City lineup includes just two batters above a 20.4 K% against RHP since last year. However, they do make a lot of weak contact and Lopez is backed by the best bullpen in the league with incredible peripherals. I’m going under Kansas City’s team total (3.5 -132).

Diamondbacks @ Cardinals

Zac Gallen has only started three road games this year. He was smashed at Wrigley, but at two in New York, he struck out 21 of 47 with 12.2 innings of one run ball on five hits. In games outside NY, Gallen has struck out 38 of 196 (19.4%) with 22 walks (11.2%). Since his last start against the Mets, Gallen has allowed four home runs on six barrels with a 57.9 HardHit%. While none of his estimators approach a 5.14 ERA, they all exceed four and Gallen is near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings against a St Louis offense that smashes fastballs better than any offense in the league (1.14 wFA/C).
DEF: 3
BSR: 3

Miles Mikolas has allowed four runs over his last 27.2 innings against a fairy easy schedule with just a 7.3 K-BB% over that span and 10.8% Barrels/BBE with a 42.2 HardHit%. A .210 BABIP, 93.4 LOB% and 5.3 HR/FB are propping him up. His season SIERA and xFIP are both 5.06. His xERA and Bot ERA are a bit below four and a half, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .346 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: 11
BSR: 4

Admittedly, a declining Zac Gallen is still superior to Mikolas by almost half a run. Take the pair of New York games out and it’s much closer, but things don’t work that way. They count and weren’t even in the same month. However, the St Louis offense has been surprisingly comparable to Arizona and they have massive defensive and bullpens advantages here with the best defense facing the worst bullpen. Cardinals +110.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Yankees @ Rockies

Three straight quality starts for Clarke Schmidt, but with a marginal 3.50 ERA and 9.9 K-BB%. He’s only allowed 14 hard hit batted balls (29.2%) during this span though. He has surprisingly middling pitch matchup rating, while a 3.36 xERA and 3.92 Bot ERA are his only estimators below a 4.41 ERA through six starts this season. He got started late and was out of rhythm his first few starts. I don’t believe he’s actually that bad.
DEF: 4
BSR: 1

Tanner Gordon pitched to a four in his first start of the season, projects to a five. He posted a competent 12.5 K-BB% in 34.1 innings last year with a solid contact profile. He has a 9.1 K-BB% at AAA this season.
DEF: -3
BSR: -1

The Yankees traveling to the 1-9 Rockies since firing their manager, who were just embarrassed further by the Phillies. Every team has a price and you just knew this line would be inflated. Let’s wait and see if it inflates further.

Marlins @ Angels

Sandy Alcantara has one quality start on the season and it was the six inning, three run variety. The 53.3 LOB% is ridiculous, but even with 50.4% of his contact on the ground, he’s struck out more than four just twice (5.8 K-BB%) and has still allowed 9.8% Barrels/BBE with a 48.9 LOB%. His pitch modeling (4.11 Bot ERA) is his only estimator below four and a half, while the matchup is middling against a suddenly hot Angels offense. The only good news is Alcantara was up to a season high 98.3 mph last time out and he’s better against RHBs (.335 wOBA, .315 xwOBA) this year.
DEF: 1
BSR: -1

Yusei Kikuchi’s velocity is up over his last four starts (94.9 mph) over his first six (94.2), but even that’s more than half a mph below last season. He’s struck out 22 of his last 95 batters, which helps if you’re going to carry a double digit barrel rate, which he generally does (10.6% last five years).
DEF: -14
BSR: 2

In case you didn’t see it above, the Angels have a 164 wRC+ over the last seven days and that’s not even counting another smoking in Sacramento on Thursday. Yes, Sacramento you say, but they also swept the Dodgers.

Phillies @ Athletics

It’s 80% quality starts for Zack Wheeler this year and six straight with no more than two runs. He doesn’t have an estimator more than have a run above his 2.67 ERA, but a 2.15 xERA more than half a run below it. His issues with LHBs is down to just a .240 wOBA this year with a 7.8 point increase in K-BB% against them.
DEF: -6
BSR: 1

This may be Jeffrey Springs, who has allowed just four runs over his last 25.1 innings to finally push his ERA below four. He’s done this with a 9.7 K-BB% that’s not much higher and a worse hard hit rate (37.4%) than his first six starts. A 3.95 xERA now matches his 3.91 ERA with everything else, except a 4.44 FIP above four and a half.
DEF: -12
BSR: -3

The Phillies go from Coors to…Coors. May have a play on the total if/when Springs is confirmed.