Thursday 5/22 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rangers @ Yankees

Nathon Eovaldi L5: 30.2 IP – 114 BF – 18 H – 2 R – 0 HR – 6 BB – 34 K (24.6 K-BB%, 49.3 GB%, 4.1% Barrels/BBE, 33.8 HardHit%)

His worst estimator is a 3.78 Bot ERA, though he still has the second best pitch matchup rating no the board with or without pitch modeling. Eovaldi does not have another estimator reaching three and a half. Throwing two mph below his career average, Eovaldi doesn’t have to throw 95+ to have a good time.
DEF: 5
BSR: -1

Carlos Rodon L6: 36.2 IP – 143 BF – 21 H – 8 R (7 ER) – 3 HR – 12 BB – 44 K (22.4 K-BB%, 37.6 GB%, 5.7% Barrels/BBE, 35.6 HardHit%)

With 80% of his barrels leaving the park, all of Rodon’s non-FIP estimators are within one-third of a run of his 3.17 ERA with the exception of a 4.16 Bot ERA. However, by pure pitch run values, he has the top matchup on the board. The changeup, curve and sinker which Rodon throws less than 25% of the time combined all grade poorly.
DEF: 1
BSR: 2

This would be a great game if it weren’t (stop me if you heard this before) cold, wet and windy on a Thursday morning. (Anything before 1pm ET is morning to me.)

Padres @ Blue Jays

Stephen Kolek followed up his shutout at Coors with five runs allowed to the Mariners at home. All three of his home runs and barrels allowed this season came in that start with a 50% hard hit rate. The good is that he’s walked just 6.7% of the 75 batters he’s faced with 58.2% ground balls, generating just 5.5% Barrels/BBE, despite a 47.3 HardHit%. The bad news is that his 6.6 SwStr% can’t support a 20 K% and he’s been between 6% and 7.7% in each start. His current ERA (2.33) is more than a run below all estimators, except for a 3.25 xERA, the worst of which is a 4.33 FIP with all of his barrels going out. RHBs (.360 wOBA, .329 xwOBA) have been a much bigger problem than LHBs (.288, .303) so far.
DEF: -2
BSR: -3

Bowden Francis L5: 23.1 IP – 110 BF – 36 H – 21 R – 9 HR – 5 BB – 16 K (10 K-BB%, 28.7 GB%, 10.2% Barrels/BBE, 48.9 HardHit%)

Those last two numbers are better than his season rate. The 6.05 xERA is more than a run and a half above his contact neutral estimators with the 5.63 ERA in between. Pitch modeling somehow likes him nearly as much as last year. LHBs exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year with RHBs slightly below .300.
DEF: 5
BSR: 0

Cold wet and windy, but there’s a roof.

Phillies @ Rockies

Since being blasted in his first start off the IL, Ranger Suarez has thrown seven innings each in his last two starts, no runs in Cleveland and then three surrendered to the Pirates, striking out 11 of 51 with two walks. He’s kept the ball on the ground more than half the time without more than a 33.3 HardHit% in any of his three starts. His velocity remains up nearly a mph and pitch modeling likes the arsenal more than last year (3.32 Bot ERA, 111 Pitching+). With a 3.24 ERA his only other estimator above three, it all looks peachy.
DEF: -9
BSR: 0

The good news is that German Marquez has two quality starts in which he’s thrown a total of 13 innings with one run allowed. Also, his ERA is at least 3.3 runs more than every single one of his estimators. The bad news is that he’s struck out a total of six in those quality starts and no more than three since his first start of the season, while his best estimator is still a 4.64 xERA with 4.6% Barrels/BBE on a 45.7 HardHit% that doesn’t seem sustainable with a league average ground ball rate. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Marquez since his return from Tommy John surgery last season.
DEF: -7
BSR: -2

No weather issues at Coors at all. The forecast is 70 degrees with a light breeze. I want to play the Rockies to go under their team total. That team total is 3.5 (+110). Can I play an under like that at Coors? They have a 57 wRC+ and 28.8 K% vs LHP and the Phillies have the second best pen estimators in the league over the last month. That’s about half a run less than their ERA. Yeah, I know they lost Alvarez. I’m going to wait for more information on Thursday. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for more.

Angels @ Athletics

Tyler Anderson has hit a bit of a rough patch in his last two starts, allowing seven runs (five earned) over 10 innings to the Orioles and Dodgers, though he actually increased his K-BB (15.6%) with just a 36.4 HardHit% over this span, following four straight quality starts. Last year, a .258 BABIP kept his 3.81 ERA about half a run below estimators. This year, it’s a .210 BABIP and 83.3 LOB% that has him running more than a run below everything except a 3.39 xERA. He has managed contact quite well, as you can see in our Statcast graphic. However, Anderson lives and dies by the changeup and while that looks good for him from both a pitch modeling and run value standpoint, it isn’t graded as strongly as last year (56 PitchingBot grade, 95 Pitching+) and leads to a reverse split (LHBs within three points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Anderson since last year). The A’s may not be afraid to leave their four LHBs in the lineup here.
DEF: -11
BSR: 1

Coming off six shutout innings for the first time since Opening Day, Luis Severino dropped his ERA to 4.22, within one-third of a run of all his non-FIP estimators. Severino has allowed just eight barrels (4.3% of contact with four home runs), despite a 40.4 HardHit% and below average ground ball rate. I’m not sure he can sustain that, but what we look for in a matchup for Severino is a more right-handed lineup (check)(.275 wOBA, .284 xwOBA against him since last year) and a susceptibility to sliders/sweepers. This one is kind of break even from a run value standpoint because Severino holds a -0.3 RV/100 on the pitch (Angels -0.65 wSL/C – there is no differentiation from sweepers), but the pitch modeling (60 PB, 115 P+) strengthens this matchup for Severino, as you can see in the part of the graphic that covers Severino’s sliders below.
DEF: -12
BSR: -1

This is a game, because of Anderson’s contact management and Severino’s sweeper success against RHBs, that could be a bit lower scoring than I project, which keeps me off the total. You do have two of the worst defenses and bullpens (sans Miller) in the league here.

Guardians @ Tigers

Tanner Bibee still hasn’t struck out more than five in a start this season and just 10 of his last 77 with a 7.3 SwStr%. The good news is that he’s only walked three of his last 102, to push his K-BB all the way up to 8.5%. Yeah, this is no good. He’s allowed 16 barrels with all the contact, 11 of which have left the yard, so even if we disregard the 5.64 FIP, a 4.05 Bot ERA (nearly half a run worse than last year’s 3.68) and 4.14 xERA (39.6 HardHit%) are his only estimators not more than half a run above his 4.06 ERA. Best case you’re buying the pitch modeling and it’s still a bad year. With or without pitch modeling, he has one of the worst pitch matchup ratings on the board tonight. LHBs have a .339 wOBA and .321 xwOBA against Bibee since last year, while batters from either side of the plate are within three points of a .350 wOBA against him this year.
DEF: 2
BSR: 2

Jack Flaherty broke a rough three start stretch with 5.2 innings of two run ball against the Blue Jays with six strikeouts. I expect Flaherty to sit above 93 mph in his better starts and 93.4 ties for his best velocity after his first start of the season (93.6). Unfortunately, you can’t tell these things beforehand. The good news is that you can just bet on his 21.1 K-BB% and his HR/Barrel rate improving from two-thirds. The bad news is that with 12.3% Barrels/BBE and a 41 HardHit%, his 4.64 xERA is even higher than his 4.44 ERA and 4.50 FIP. Flaherty is one of just two pitchers on the main daily fantasy slate to have a positive pitch run value matchup, but it turns slightly negative with the inclusion of pitch modeling (they don’t like anything except his curveball – 52 PB, 113 P+). RHBs have a .315 wOBA and .314 xwOBA against Flaherty since last year with LHBs below .300, which should benefit him here.
DEF: 3
BSR: 0

With any luck, maybe we just get the cold and windy here (20% chance of rain per google). Remember that pitch matchup ratings do not take park or weather into account at all. Considering weather, park and matchup, if you are playing this daily fantasy slate, Flaherty is kind of my 1B guy, but lower priced than 1A and probably my favorite value.

Brewers @ Pirates

Carlos Rodriguez is listed on Roster Resource with a shrug emoji on MLB.com. He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch this year, while the 23 year-old started three games (12.1 innings) for the Brew Crew last year (10.5 K-BB% 27.3 GB%, 37.8 HardHit%). A 17.7 K-BB% at AAA is his most impressive mark in his third season at the level (12.4%, 8.7%). Projections exceed four and a half on average.

DEF: 5
BSR: -3

Twenty-five year old Mike Burrows is officially listed for his first major league action of the year and his first career start after 3.1 innings last season in relief. His 23.1 K-BB% at AAA is also the best of his FOUR seasons at the level, though with just 6.2 innings in 2023, post Tommy John. A marginally rated prospect (40+ FV Fangraphs), his most likely role may be in middle relief long term and that’s how he’s projected at just four and a quarter runs per nine this year. The fastball is vulnerable and you can see that in some hefty minor league home run rates.
DEF: -4
BSR: 5

We’re pretty much guessing here and heck, maybe the game won’t even go off in the cold, wet and windy weather. (Google at 35% rain at game time.)

Orioles @ Red Sox

Cade Povich is coming off his best starts of the season (5.2 IP – 21 BF – 3 H – 2 R – 1 HR – 2 BB – 9 K), striking out more than four for just the second time since his first start of the season. In fact, both of his somewhat digestible starts have come against the Nationals this year. His only other “quality start” included three unearned runs. Oh, and Povich had a 6.1 SwStr% in striking out nine Nationals with a 50% hard hit rate. A 5.86 xERA (12.6% Barrels/BBE, 46.5 HardHit%) is Povich’s only estimator above a 5.23 ERA. Contact neutral estimators range between a 4.00 Bot ERA and 4.10 SIERA. That would be good news, but we can’t ignore the contact profile or the .360 wOBA and .347 xwOBA RHBs own against him since last year.
DEF: -3
BSR: 4

Lucas Giolito has looked great in two road starts and awful in two at home since returning from Tommy John surgery. The good news is that his velocity was up to 93.9 in his last two starts (one good, one bad), a number he hasn’t averaged since 2021. Five of his seven barrels have left the yard this year. He’s allowed three twice and one in the other two, but one of the three barrel starts was a good one. Giolito is a really difficult analysis right now. A 4.22 SIERA and xFIP agree and are in line with a 4.21 Bot ERA with contact inclusive estimators above five.
DEF: 2
BSR: -3

I’d lean Boston here or maybe an over on their total except for the….tada…cold, wet and windy weather. We’re talking mid-40s with winds above 20 mph and more than a 50% chance of rain. This could be an early PPD, but I’m only a google weatherman. Kevin will give you a better idea in the morning.

Braves @ Nationals

AJSS has allowed two runs (one earned) over his last 19.2 innings. He’s also struck out 13 of his last 47 batters with four walks, no barrels and a 51.7 GB%. Now the bad news is that these last two were against the Pirates and Nationals with a hard hit rate matching that ground ball rate and the third start was against the Red. His velocity has been up a mph in the last two with a 14.2 SwStr% as well. There are reports that AJSS has been surviving with fastballs over the plate against bad teams with struggling secondaries and both the fastball and splitter do grade mediocrely at best, even over these two outings. Then again, it’s also the Nationals again, though it is a bit of a surprise, as they generally hit fastballs well.
DEF: 12
BSR: -3

Trevor Williams throws his fastball nearly 10 mph less than AJSS’s last two starts, yet it’s one of the top graded pitchers in the league (70 PB, 112 P+). I guess they like his command, but the sweeper is his only positive pitch by run value. By run value, you could argue Williams has the worst matchup on the board. Adding in pitch modeling, he’s fine. The gist of it is that his 5.91 ERA has a lot to do with a .356 BABIP and 63.1 LOB%, while the Washington defense has been terrible too. He does have a 12.6 K-BB% with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE, but that defense is not going away. While Williams doesn’t have an estimator reaching four and a half this year, LHBs have a .342 wOBA and .317 xwOBA against him since last year.

DEF: -16
BSR: 1

This is essentially a copy/paste from Wednesday and as I mentioned, we’re closing in on a number where we may want to bet on positive regression for Williams and I’m not even sure we haven’t hit it yet, but this line has held (or at least not dropped) for more than a day now and I’ll wait a bit longer. Cool, less wet and slight wind…is that better? AJSS goes from Wednesday afterthought to 1A on Thursday, but easily the most expensive pitcher on the board. I said there may be a price I want to bet on Williams to regress. He still doesn’t have enough upside to roster in daily fantasy at his current price.

Mariners @ Astros

George Kirby makes his season debut with projections just below three and a half. He’s posted a K-BB between 20.1% and 20.5% each of his three major league seasons with between 7.5% and 8.6% Barrels/BBE. In three AAA rehab starts, Kirby struck out 13 of 45 with two walks and three home runs. Two of those were in his last start, facing 21 batters over four innings, striking out four. He should be just about entirely stretched out. RHBs had a .267 wOBA and .282 xwOBA against him last year.
DEF: -3
BSR: -3

While Lance McCullers Jr. has only allowed earned runs in one of his three starts, none of them have looked all that good. He hasn’t gone beyond four innings or 19 batters with no more than an 8.4 SwStr% and is down a mile and a half per hour from the last time he pitched in the majors. His pitch modeling is worse than Marquez, while he’s allowed four barrels (13.8%) with a 48.3 HardHit%.
DEF: 3
BSR: 1

To start, this is the one game on the main daily fantasy slate we’re sure will be played. Although Boston is really the only one that looks at risk now. Second, my whole 1A/1B thing comes with the caveat that George Kirby hasn’t thrown a major league pitch yet. Sure, if he’s healthy with his normal workload, he’s the guy and I’m certainly mixing some Kirby in even if I’m not sure. He’s cheaper than AJSS. At this point, I think you have continue attacking McCullers until he proves that he’s right.