Wednesday 5/21 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

We try again on Wednesday. The good news is that I can get an earlier than usual start. The bad news is that some scary weather on Tuesday could wreak havoc on Wednesday’s slate with potential double-headers. We've already got one since I've typed that last sentence. 

Stats are through Monday with a Legend below.

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Reds @ Pirates

Brady Singer has allowed 14 runs over his last 13.1 innings with three home runs on five barrels and just a 1.6 K-BB%. I feel like the Reds liked his ground ball rate in this park, but he’s 12.3 points below his career ground ball rate this year.
DEF: 1
BSR: -3

After back to back four run starts, Andrew Heaney has allowed just three runs over his last 11 starts in which he’s walked two more than he’s struck out with a 47.2 HardHit%. He has a -6.6 K-BB% with 12.9% Barrels/BBE (45.7 HardHit%) over his last four.

DEF: -3
BSR: 2

God bless you if you’re sitting through this one on a Wednesday afternoon. These offenses are so bad that I still nearly have a lean on the under.

Astros @ Rays

Five straight starts with exactly nine strikeouts for Hunter Brown with a season high eight innings of one run ball last time out. He’s one out short of quality starts in all nine of his attempts and has only given up more than four hits twice, yet a .248 BABIP is not THAT outrageous.
DEF: 3
BSR: -2

Taj Bradley’s estimators are all below his 4.80 ERA, unless you’re looking at his board worst pitch modeling. However, only a 3.64 xERA with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE is more than half a run below any other estimator. With RHBs owning a .309 wOBA and .314 xwOBA against him since last year, Houston’s lack of lefties is of no benefit.

DEF: -3
BSR: -3

If I understood Tampa Bay weather patterns more (mid to upper 80s here with strong wind), I might be on an under here too. Brown has been untouchable.

An update here. Strikeout props have just been posted and I've found some value in fading Bradley at 4.5 (+130). His strikeout rates are lower against RHBs this year (23.4%) and career (18%). Five of first six in projected Houston lineup below a 19 K% vs RHP since last year. I don't know that this will hit, but am pretty confident the line will drop. 

Guardians @ Twins

Welp...this is what MLB.com was showing for this doubleheader about an hour ago (5:30 PM ET)

And this is what it's showing now. I have no idea what to do with it. 

Cubs @ Marlins

Cade Horton worked behind an opener at Citi Field in his major league debut. He struck out five of 17 Mets without a walk, but allowed three runs with a 50% hard hit rate. Both this and last year at AAA, Horton has posted walk rates of at least 12%, but has never had a strikeout rate below 27% at any level. He struck out just two of 21 White Sox in his second start with both barrels (12.5%) leaving the park. While the fact that he hasn’t walked anyone yet is impressive, it’s been at the expensive of missing bats (8.3 SwStr%).
DEF: 4
BSR: 1

While Max Meyer allowed another four runs (three earned) in five innings last time out, he did strike out seven without a walk, home run or barrel against the Rays, though 50% of his contact was hard hit. After sitting above 95 mph in three of his first four starts, he was below that in each of his next four, allowing a total of eight barrels to the White Sox and A’s alone. He was back up to 95.5 mph against the Rays with a burst in both his fastball (54 Pitching Bot, 105 Pitching+) and slider (62, 125) grades. We’ll see if he’s really back on track here though.

DEF: -2
BSR: 3

My only interest in this game is scouting Max Meyer (which means reading reports more than actually watching) for future outings.

Orioles @ Brewers

In the two starts Tomo Sugano threw his slider at more than a 20% rate (27.4%, 24.7%) he generated his only above average swinging strike rates (15.8% against the Yankees, 11.8% against the Angels) and only games with a K-BB above 13% with 13 of his 29 strikeouts. The Angels are almost entirely right-handed. The Yankees, like the Brewers, run out a more balanced lineup. I have no idea what he’ll do, but if he doesn’t increase his slider usage, don’t expect the .226 BABIP and 87.6 LOB% to sustain.
DEF: -3
BSR: 5

Chad Patrick, who has the second worst Bot ERA on the board, conflicting with his Pitching+ score ranks strongly in terms of pitch matchup run values. This is more about how bad the O’s have been than what he has done without a non-FIP estimator below four and a 4.09 xERA only that low because he’s somehow allowed just 5.4% Barrels/BBE with a 26.2 GB% and 44.9 HardHit%. All other estimators are above four and a half.

DEF: 5
BSR: -3

Seriously, WTF Baltimore? When did Adley Rutschman turn into Matt Wieters 2.0?

Tigers @ Cardinals

No official listed pitcher on MLB.com, while Roster Resource is listing 34 year-old LHP Dietrich Enns with 26.1 major league innings to his name and none since 2022. He made one major league start in 2017 and had a 15 K-BB% in the KBO last year after two season with a single digit K-BB% in Japan.
DEF: 3
BSR: 2

Two consecutive two run, seven inning outings for Andre Pallante. His velocity has been up a mph without a walk and 20 K% in these starts without sacrificing much of his 64.6 GB%. Contact neutral estimators are below his 4.11 ERA with just a 7.5 K-BB% and all those ground balls. Contact inclusinve ones are above four and a half.

DEF: 12
BSR: 2

If Pallante sustains the increased velocity with those results, he may become interesting.

Mariners @ White Sox

Coming off his first career quality start with six shutout innings against the Padres, Logan Evans has struck out exactly three in three of his four starts (6.5 K-BB%). He has managed contact well (33.8 HardHit%), but with just a 5.8 SwStr% that struggles to support his 16.2 K%. He’s sitting on a 4.68 xERA, which is his second best non-FIP estimator, behind a 4.49 Bot ERA.
DEF: -3
BSR: 0

There’s been a bit of good fortune involved in Shane Smith’s 2.05 ERA with seven of his 18 runs unearned (five last time out) but his worst estimator is a 4.06 xFIP.

DEF: -6
BSR: 1

Cool and windy here. On the Chicago side only, we have a competent pitcher with an offense that can’t hit, while the Seattle offense has cooled off as well. Feels like a recipe for an under. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Royals @ Giants

MLB.com has TBD listed. Roster Resource has TBD listed. I need two names or I can’t generate a game. Why not Rich Hill? He’s only projected by Steamer and four an ERA/FIP of four. I…don’t think so?
DEF: 4
BSR: 4

Over his last three starts, Logan Webb has allowed four runs over 22 innings (three starts!) with a 16.5 K-BB% that drops his season rate to 21%, but also a 67.5 GB%, which has generated just three barrels, despite a 47.5 HardHit%. On the season, Webb’s 3.14 Bot ERA is his only estimator above three.

DEF: 3
BSR: -1

There really may be a chance this is Rich Hill.

Mets @ Red Sox

Tyler Megill went from talk of being a potential All Star this year to pitching for his major league life with a 14 BB% over his last five starts. The most interesting thing is that he’s increased his K-BB (17.6%) over this span (19.6%) because he’s been striking out one third of his batters too, but with nearly half the batters he faced not making contact, he’s only thrown 24 innings over this stretch. Further, those strikeouts are coming with just a 10.8 SwStr% that can’t support them. To look at his season results with a 3.74 ERA and estimators ranging from a 3.14 FIP to a 3.65 SIERA and dERA, you’d think everything was great, but Megill needs to improve his command and quickly.
DEF: -6
BSR: 2

I’ve never heard a pitcher say they were trying to pitch too much and need to go back to just throwing, but ever since Garrett Crochet did, he’s struck out 23 of 76 batters with just three walks and four runs over 19 innings. Maybe Megill should adapt this philosophy. Crochet’s worst estimator is now a 3.42 Bot ERA though none are within four-fifths of a run of his 2.00 ERA (83.3 LOB%, three unearned runs). We should also note that his average 96.7 mph in his last two starts are higher than any other single start this year. That doesn’t hurt.

DEF: 5
BSR: 4

Windy with temperatures potentially below 50 degrees here. We’re near the end of May. WTF is going on? Daily fantasy slates start here and conditions pull us off bats, even if pitching didn’t. There are two clear top arms on the board today and I have them essentially in a dead heat and both two of the top values as well. They are both pitching against New York teams in AL East parks as well. With Crochet being the more expensive, he may have slightly less value, but I would generally do the opposite of whatever ownership projections you use, although they’re probably 50/50 and we just use them both. At the same price on both sites, Megill is adequately priced.

Last 30 day bullpen stats below.

Braves @ Nationals

AJSS has allowed two runs (one earned) over his last 19.2 innings. He’s also struck out 13 of his last 47 batters with four walks, no barrels and a 51.7 GB%. Now the bad news is that these last two were against the Pirates and Nationals with a hard hit rate matching that ground ball rate and the third start was against the Red. His velocity has been up a mph in the last two with a 14.2 SwStr% as well. There are reports that AJSS has been surviving with fastballs over the plate against bad teams with struggling secondaries and both the fastball and splitter do grade mediocrely at best, even over these two outings. Then again, it’s also the Nationals again, though it is a bit of a surprise, as they generally hit fastballs well.
DEF: 12
BSR: -3

Trevor Williams throws his fastball nearly 10 mph less than AJSS’s last two starts, yet it’s one of the top graded pitchers in the league (70 PB, 112 P+). I guess they like his command, but the sweeper is his only positive pitch by run value. By run value, you could argue Williams has the worst matchup on the board. Adding in pitch modeling, he’s fine. The gist of it is that his 5.91 ERA has a lot to do with a .356 BABIP and 63.1 LOB%, while the Washington defense has been terrible too. He does have a 12.6 K-BB% with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE, but that defense is not going away. While Williams doesn’t have an estimator reaching four and a half this year, LHBs have a .342 wOBA and .317 xwOBA against him since last year.

DEF: -16
BSR: 1

There is a number where we want to bet on positive regression for Williams, though the market hasn’t hit that yet. Another cold, wet and windy spot is potentially an offense killer here. Check the afternoon report to see if LH Braves are in play. On a more positive note, if it does look like they’re going to play, AJSS may have some value under these conditions (he’s currently my number three overall), though he may be adequately priced otherwise.

Rangers @ Yankees

Jacob deGrom’s last two starts were a season high 10 strikeouts at a season high (at the time) 97.5 mph against the best team in the American League, the Detroit Tigers and then eight innings of shutout baseball with seven strikeouts at 97.9 mph against division and in-state rival Houston, facing Hunter Brown. Do you think deGrom will be up for pitching back in New York? I don’t think deGrom is “amping up”, but I do think he’s feeling more confident in letting it fly a bit more in big situations, which all three of these starts are.
DEF: 6
BSR: -1

Ryan Yarbrough has taken Carlos Carrasco’s spot in the rotation for the time being and given them exactly what you’d think, a matching 9.8 BB% and K-BB% with great contact management (21.1 HardHit%). I don’t expect the latter to remain that good and keep his 3.46 xERA his only estimator below 3.70 ERA, though he does have a history of limiting hard contact (27.8% career) and he does have one of the best pitch matchup ratings on the board.

DEF: 4
BSR: 1

I almost just popped deGrom’s K prop on FanDuel (6.5 +142), but it quickly dropped to +124 before I fired). Six and a half is right around where I have him, but the price was too juicy. That said, I’ve already told you that deGrom is tied for my top spot on the board at a cheaper cost than Crochet. My only concerns here are cold, wet and windy again, while also facing a more balanced lineup than Houston. LHBs still have a .342 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against him since last year, but that number is sinking. With Texas likely lining up an entirely right-handed lineup (.326 wOBA, .344 xwOBA vs Yarbrough since last year), the weather and contact profile may thwart offensive thoughts there. Hell, conditions get too pitcher friendly, Yarbrough may even end up a decent punt if you want to roster deGrom/Crochet and high priced bats.

Padres @ Blue Jays

Randy Vasquez has struck out 10 of his last 48 batters with just two walks to drive his K-BB to a -1.5 (still negative!). To make matters even worse, his opponents in those two starts were the Rockies and the predominantly right-handed Angels. Vasquez’s stunning 4.15 Bot ERA is his only estimator below five and by run values, the matchup isn’t even that bad for him, but he has no other estimator below five, while LHBs still exceed a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -2
BSR: -5

All three of Kevin Gausman’s barrels against the Rays left the yard. He left some pitches out over the plate and that’s what happens, despite his season high 95.8 mph velocity. Gausman has a solid 16.9 K-BB% with very strong pitch modeling on his fastball (66 PB, 114 P+), but then you realize 19 of his 46 strikeouts have come in two starts with no more than six in any other and he’s been a bit fortunate that just seven of his 18 barrels (12.6%) have left the yard, even with those three last time out, and there remains a bit of concern, despite estimators ranging from a 3.03 Bot ERA to a 4.43 dERA, all below his 4.59 ERA (61.1 LOB%).

DEF: 9
BSR: 0

Thankfully we have a roof here, which makes it a near neutral environment. We’re looking for left-handed Blue Jays here. You can take a few shots with Gausman in multi-entry, especially with ownership likely very focused on the top two, but I wouldn’t go nuts against a lineup like the Padres, who offer little upside. You can use right-handed power against Gausman too.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Phillies @ Rockies

Taijuan Walker has been better than last year, but only because he couldn’t be worse and it still didn’t keep him in the rotation. His last six innings have been in a pair of relief outings, impressively striking out nine of 24 batters, but with just a 6.7 SwStr%. The Phillies, evidentially, want to get it all over with and get him to rage quit with a start at Coors. The problem is that Rockies have been inspiring confidence in every pitcher they’ve faced. Walker’s 4.9% Barrels/BBE have been a surprise and he even now has a double digit K-BB (11.4%). He also has the best pitch run value matchup on the slate, though still some of the worst pitch modeling on the slate and a 7.3 SwStr% that can’t support a league average strikeout rate. Since last season, batters from the left-hand side exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs are above .390.
DEF: -6
BSR: 1

Carson Palmquist allowed just one barrel and one walk to the 19 Diamondbacks he faced in his major league debut. He also struck out none with a 3.9 SwStr% and has projections exceeding five. The good news here is that loved the slider (43.4%, 63 PB, 124 P+), which he threw exactly as often as his sinker (43, 102).

DEF: -3
BSR: -3

The weather actually looks fine here and do you even have to ask? Maybe you do and yes you can use Colorado bats here and they’re cheap too.

Angels @ Athletics

Jack Koch is running a 3.3 K-BB% and 48.4 HardHit% that produces 8.9% Barrels/BBE, despite a 52.9 GB%. An 88.2 LOB% has him allowing just a pair of runs over his last 12.1 innings, while walking eight of 48 batters. All of his non-FIP estimators are within half a run of his 4.71 ERA, while LHBs own a career .357 wOBA and .373 xwOBA against him.
DEF: -14
BSR: 1

The Giants, who hadn’t previously hit LHP well, tattooed J.P. Sears for four runs in as many innings last time out, striking out twice with three walks. While it still doesn’t kill a nice season so far for him, Sears has now struck out just eight of his last 64 batters faced, dropping him to a 13.9 K-BB% on the season. With a solid contact profile, estimators ranging from a 3.61 xERA to a 4.44 xFIP are also fairly average and higher than his 3.31 ERA with his 80.2% strand rate. RHBs have a .325 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against him since last year, which could be a problem against the Angels, who do struggle against sliders/sweepers, though that’s likely more against RHPs being a predominantly right-handed lineup.

DEF: -12
BSR: -1

Remaining in the same run environment as the last game, you obviously want bats, bats and more bats here. In fact, 5.5 team run total is a bit light, but also think Koch’s K prop is a bit generous (3.5 +154). I only have him for three and a half, but he’s beaten this number in three of his last four against quality offenses, while five of the projected front seven for the A’s exceed a 22.5 K% against RHP since last year. Two things can be true, right? There’s a price for everything.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

Written before Corbin Burnes last start:

After skipping a start with a “shoulder issue”, Corbin Burnes proclaimed that his cutter was back after running seven shutout innings at the Dodgers, striking out five with two walks and 63% of his contact on the ground with only six hard hit batted balls (30%). His 12.1 SwStr% was his best mark since his first start of the season in the Bronx. So, yup, Yankees and Dodgers, best starts of the season. What Burnes did was stop throwing his cutter to RHBs (just nine). It was up nearly a mph, but with the same break as the rest of the season. Don’t expect the Rockies to solve him, but once teams catch up to the pitch mix, it may not be any great advantage anymore. I do not believe the cutter is back yet.

Burnes proceeded to strike out a season high 10 of 23 batters, but it was the Rockies and he also walked three. The cutter held it’s one mph velocity increase, while gaining an inch of break. The pitch, which received a perfect 80 PB grade and 146 P+ against the mighty Dodgers, registered a 38 PB and 88 P+ grade against the Rockies. The difference is that everything else registered well (3.72 Bot ERA, 113 Pitching+ for the start).

I’m sorry. I’m still not entirely convinced. And it’s not because he had been previously bad this season, but because the pitch  has been in decline for a couple of years now. He has a long way to go to get back to prime Burnes, which I don’t think we’ll see again.
DEF: 3
BSR: 3

Let’s continue this theme. Before Dustin May’s last start:

Dustin May is coming off his third quality start of the season in perhaps his best start of the season against the Diamondbacks. His velocity remains down more than two mph from 2023 and with just a 10.8 K-BB%, a 52.6 GB% is taming a 44.4 HardHit% (6.8% Barrels/BBE). His 4.08 ERA is within a quarter of a run of all estimators except for a 4.53 xERA. Another reverse platoon on this slate, RHBs have a .367 wOBA and .392 xwOBA against him and that could be problematic against the Angels.

May upped his slider usage (47.4%), striking out a season high eight of 24 Angels with just a league average 10.5 SwStr%, while also allowing four runs over five innings. All of the above still stands.

DEF: 2
BSR: 4

At 75 degrees with a near double digit wind out to right-center, Dodgers Stadium should play as the third hitter friendliest spot on the slate, behind the two obvious spots, although it’s 68 degrees with a double digit wind blowing in from left-center at Coors. The other weather caveat is that it’s worse than expected yesterday with games in Washington and New York (deGrom) at risk of delay, PPD or an early stop. Crochet will likely be pitching in light rain, 50 degrees and a double digit wind blowing in. This entire slate is screwed. Still, these are not the pitchers I’d pivot too. This game is set up for offense. Add in Arizona’s league worst pen estimators over the last 30 days and I played over 9 (-110) last night.