Friday 5/16 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

White Sox @ Cubs

The White Sox have found something in Shane Smith, coming off his third quality start, second with no runs allowed, tying a career high with seven strikeouts. There’s been a bit of good fortune involved (79.1 LOB%, 20% Home Run/Barrel rate), but his worst estimator is a 4.17 xFIP.
DEF: -6
BSR: 6

Cade Horton worked behind an opener at Citi Field in his major league debut. He struck out five of 17 Mets without a walk, but allowed three runs with a 50% hard hit rate. Both this and last year at AAA, Horton has posted walk rates of at least 12%, but has never had a strikeout rate below 27% at any level.
DEF: 6
BSR: 0

Judging by the posted total, we probably have a wind blowing out day at Wrigley. 

Guardians @ Reds

Seven innings, five hits and one run for the second time in three starts for Tanner Bibee (both at home against the Twins and Phillies), but striking out only 11 of his last 74 and hasn’t reached a double digit SwStr rate in six starts (6.1%). Allowing 10.3% Barrels/BBE as well, Bibee’s 4.23 xERA  and 4.11 Bot ERA are his only estimators below four and a half.
DEF: 1
BSR: 4

Brady Singer was shelled for seven runs in 2.1 innings against an entirely right-handed last time out. With a 63 LOB%, his 4.97 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 4.04 xERA to a 4.55 Bot ERA. LHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -1
BSR: -2

Little reason to have much confidence in either of these pitchers right now, but Singer certainly has the tougher matchup with those platoon splits.

Pirates @ Phillies

After a strong start, Andrew Heaney’s schedule has toughened up (CHC, SDP, ATL all at home last three starts). He’s struck out five of his last 69 batters with 10 walks and eight barrels (15.1%).
DEF: -2
BSR: -2

After being shelled by the Diamondbacks in his season debut, Ranger Suarez tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits with five strikeouts and a walk in Cleveland. His velocity is up around half a mph from last year and he hasn’t allowed a barrel yet with just a 27.6 HardHit%.
DEF: -8
BSR: -2

People may not realize how hard Heaney has hit the wall while still sporting a 3.15 ERA.

Nationals @ Orioles

Mackenzie Gore has struck out as few as six only once this year and is tied for the board lead with a 15.6 SwStr% (second with a 35.2 K%). Every pitch he’s thrown aside from his fastball (four of them) has exceeded a 20 SwStr% this season when only the changeup did so last season. He sits around the middle of the pitch matchup ratings because the Orioles hammer curveballs, while his has been mediocre, but it would be easy enough to attack them with fastballs, which they’ve struggled against. The contact profile (see graphic below) doesn’t really concern me with so high a strikeout rate, but it does illustrate why his ERA is around three and a half. Contact neutral estimators are about a run lower.
DEF: -16
BSR: 0

At 12% Barrels/BBE and a 46.2 HardHit%, Cade Povich owns a more concerning contact profile because his strikeout rate is half of what Gore’s is. He does have contact neutral estimators around four and a half, but that 6.25 xERA is brutal and the results pushing him to nearly the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings are mostly on him, despite the decent pitch modeling.
DEF: -2
BSR: -1

We open the daily fantasy slate with two of many lefties on the board. Gore is my number two arm and value on FanDuel, while I have him in line with a few others in the top five on DraftKings, but still one of the better values on the board for just $8.6K. Povich would be a really aggressive punt option, but also someone you should attack with RHBs (.366 wOBA, .348 xwOBA since last year).

Adding a second paragraph because just as I was about to publish, DraftKings posted some F5 lines and this one (-115) is just inside my value range for Gore. I wouldn't go any higher. 

Mets @ Yankees

Believe it or not, Tylor Megill has just one quality start on the season and it’s of the 6.1 inning, three run variety, but let’s start with the good: a 29.5 K% and 5.8% Barrels/BBE with excellent pitch modeling and not an estimator above 3.54. However, the issues are that he often struggles with command (usually one rough inning), which has led to a 9.7 BB% and 45.2 HardHit%, while it’s slightly difficult to justify the strikeout rate with just an average SwStr%. He does get a few more called strikes than normal and that helps. Despite increased slider usage, Megill has continued his reverse split from last season (RHBs .315 wOBA, .321 xwOBA), which is a problem against you know who, but this is just me nitpicking a pitcher who has made great strides. I’ve been spoiled by deGrom.
DEF: -6
BSR: -4

His fourth four run outing in nine starts, but a season high 10 strikeouts for Carlos Rodon in Sacramento without a walk. The 21.9 K-BB% is his best in a Yankee uniform with an improved contact profile, despite being down a mph. His strength in the pitch matchup ratings lies mostly in the fastball, though has similar numbers to Megill against RHBs. He’s been less barrel prone this year with his 4.16 Bot ERA his only estimator separated from his 3.29 ERA by more than half a run.
DEF: 5
BSR: 4

While Rodon is one of several $10K arms on the slate tonight, I like several other pitchers more. Megill struggles to get to the workload necessary to give himself value on this board. You could use the big boppers here (first three in Mets lineup plus Judge), but this is probably not a big game on the daily fantasy slate.

Tigers @ Blue Jays

Jack Flaherty has struck out 16 of his last 62 batters with just five walks, but has also allowed 14 runs (13 earned) in those 13.2 innings with six home runs on eight barrels (19.5%). Flaherty has consistently ranged an 11.2 SwStr% to 15.6% in EVERY start, but the fastball is getting slammed for a 183 wRC+ and six home runs this season. While contact neutral estimators are a run lower, Flaherty’s 4.61 ERA matches his 4.68 xERA and 4.62 FIP. RHBs have a .317 wOBA and .315 xwOBA against him since last year even with the heavy slider usage. Pitch modeling does not like the pitch with PitchingBot not grading anything he throws above 45, which explains the 5.01 Bot ERA.
DEF: 4
BSR: -3

Bowden Francis has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts. His K-BB has dropped to 10% with 12% Barrels/BBE and a 50.4 HardHit%. You see him near the bottom of your pitch matchup ratings, while his 3.86 Bot ERA is his only estimator below four and a half. Here’s the thing I can’t make sense of. Both pitch modeling systems give the fastball a positive grade. The Statcast section on Fangraphs gives the pitch a positive run value, while BaseballSavant.com Statcast stats give it a negative run value. One of those sites is getting bad information.
DEF: 4
BSR: 4

With both pitchers being barreled right, left and center, my first play of the day is going to be a F5 over (4.5 -102). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Braves @ Red Sox

Chris Sale has struck out at least eight in four of his last five, the pesky Diamondbacks the only opponent against which he failed to reach that mark. The lineup the Red Sox have been using against LHP has included seven batters above a 25 K% against LHP since last year. Sale has just two quality starts on the year, but has thrown at least 98 pitches in all five of these starts. Sale is near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings, a shocker, and mostly because the few changeups he’s thrown have been awful, the fastball is still working it’s way to a positive run value and the Red Sox have smoked sliders. However, I’d have to assume that’s more RH sliders than LH. Sale’s 3.62 Bot ERA is his only estimator within three-quarters of a run of his 3.97 ERA (.392 BABIP).
DEF: 13
BSR: 3

Garrett Crochet struck out nine Royals over seven one run innings last time out and perhaps most importantly, he sat at a season high 96.7 mph. Even he had previously expressed issues about his command and velocity, mentioning he was trying too much to pitch rather than just throw. It sounded like an ominous quote from a pitcher at the time, but it seems to have worked for him. He’s now exactly 10 points below last year’s 29.6 K-BB%, but already has four starts of at least seven innings with an improved contact profile. I’m not buying into the 80.6 LOB% or just three of 11 barrels leaving the yard, but Crochet is near the top of the pitch matchup ratings and not due too much to any single offering. His non-FIP estimators range from a 2.97 dERA to a 3.54 Bot ERA.
DEF: 3
BSR: 1

The pitch matchup ratings do give me some pause, as does the park, but the Red Sox strike out a ton against LHP and Sale is otherwise my top ranked pitcher and value on Friday. Crochet isn’t too far behind, in line with Gore, but more expensive and a better value on FanDuel.

Rays @ Marlins

Three straight starts with exactly two runs allowed and five quality starts in eight attempts. Taj Bradley has been…fine. Since striking out seven in each of his first three starts, he has posted a 52.1 GB% with just 4.2% Barrels/BBE and a 35.4 HardHit%, but just a 0.8 K-BB% (7.7 SwStr%). I don’t think anyone had Andre Pallante comparisons on their scorecard, but here we are. By pure run values, he scores well in pitch matchup ratings, but with poor pitch modeling and only one estimator below four. That is a 3.44 xERA.
DEF: -1
BSR: -1

Max Meyer is now official for the Marlins and you can understand the hesitance with a 14.4 SwStr% against the White Sox last time out, but a drop to 9.7% over his last three starts, coinciding with a 2.7 K-BB% and five home runs on eight barrels (15.1%) with a 52.8 HardHit%. Meyer has posted his three lowest ground ball rates over this span with a decline in all pitch modeling grades with all holding below average marks over this span.
DEF: -9
BSR: -2

Bradley has not shown enough recent upside to be coveted on this slate and Meyer has quickly made a turnaround for the worse. In fact, LHBs have a .349 wOBA and .358 xwOBA against Meyer since last season and LH Rays are on my radar.

Cardinals @ Royals

Andre Pallante’s velocity has been slowly climbing since dropping after his first start. He was sitting at least year’s average 94.6 mph last time out. Not only does Pallante have a 65 GB% this season, but his lowest ground ball rate in a game this season is 57.9%. That allows for 7.8% Barrels/BBE with a 47.5 HardHit%. With just a 6.5 K-BB%, you may notice contact neutral estimators in the upper threes, but the hard hit rate drags his contact inclusive estimators up around five.
DEF: 11
BSR: -3

Cole Ragans has been the top strikeout pitcher on the board this year, hitting double digits in four of his eight starts. It’s just that a .375 BABIP and 68.3 LOB% have kept his ERA above four. A 3.75 Bot ERA is his only estimator outside a 2.22 (FIP) to 2.33 (SIERA) range. He also sits near the bottom of today’s pitch matchup ratings, but improves including the pitch modeling. The poor run values are something that have to improve with those peripherals. I mean a 30.4 K-BB!! The poor fortune is a major reason Ragans has only exceeded five innings twice.
DEF: 7
BSR: 1

Ragans is a top five pitcher and solid value for less than $10K. You can’t use Pallante in daily fantasy, but you can use him for an under. It’s a rare run positive, power depressing park, but you also may be looking at the two best defenses this year, while the Royals aren’t hitting anything.

Astros @ Rangers

Lance McCullers Jr. pitched poorly enough against the Reds to receive death threats. He was down to 91.4 mph and failed to strike out any of the eight batters he faced, while walking three. With a 50% hard hit rate in both starts and two barrels over 14 total batted balls after two full seasons missed, how do you evaluate that? Everything has graded extremely poorly so far and if Statcast on Fangraphs is labeling right, he’s cut his curveball usage in half (12.2%). That’s been his nut pitch. The 26.1 K-BB% in just 12.2 AAA innings does offer some hope and he wasn’t terrible against the White Sox. I just don’t know.
DEF: 4
BSR: 0

Nathan Eovaldi has gone at least six innings with at least seven strikeouts and a total of five runs (four earned) over his last five starts. He’s up to a career best 26.2 K-BB%, while keeping nearly half his contact on the ground (48.6%). Add in a hard contact rate a bit above 40% and you find a 3.26 dERA and 3.22 xERA, along with his 3.74 Bot ERA, his only estimators above three. You can see he easily dominates the pitch matchup ratings among those with more than a couple of starts and falls only behind Logan Webb when including pitch modeling.
DEF: 4
BSR: -1

I guess you have to have exposure to bats against McCullers right now. On any other day, Eovaldi could be in line for the top spot, but doesn’t even crack my top five on this monster pitching board and is the second most expensive pitcher on either site. His price is propped up by a .246 BABIP, a couple of unearned runs and only 30% of his barrels leaving the park. He’s been great, but Eovaldi offers little value for $10.5K in a marginal spot.

Twins @ Brewers

Joe Ryan finally hit last year’s velocity, sitting at 94.3 mph at Fenway two starts back and had to skip a start due to a minor injury. He returned eight days later at 92.3 mph, his second lowest velocity of the season, yet still dominated the Giants on two hits. Ryan has struck out 26 of his last 69 batters with just two walks. He’s up to a 27.5 K-BB% on the season, though still has some contact profile issues with seven home runs on 15 barrels (13.2% with at least one every game). It’s problematic when you’re throwing the high part without the heat part. The good news is his hard hit rate has dropped as his strikeouts have popped (34.1% last three starts – though still six barrels). Ryan’s 2.74 ERA matches his 2.79 SIERA, though additional estimators range from a 3.18 xERA to a 3.57 dERA. The Brewers are not a team he should have fastball issues and you can see his strong pitch matchup ratings below.
DEF: 5
BSR: 4

Rockies @ Diamondbacks

I don’t see Tanner Gordon officially listed yet, but his 12.2 K-BB% through 40.2 major league innings is fine. He doesn’t generate a lot of contact on the ground (36.6%), but with a league average contact profile. Pitch modeling information in his first and only start this year was conflicting. His 9.9 K-BB% in 33.2 AAA innings is…meh. RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his short major league career.
DEF: -3
BSR: 2

After skipping a start with a “shoulder issue”, Corbin Burnes proclaimed that his cutter was back after running seven shutout innings at the Dodgers, striking out five with two walks and 63% of his contact on the ground with only six hard hit batted balls (30%). His 12.1 SwStr% was his best mark since his first start of the season in the Bronx. So, yup, Yankees and Dodgers, best starts of the season. What Burnes did was stop throwing his cutter to RHBs (just nine). It was up nearly a mph, but with the same break as the rest of the season. Don’t expect the Rockies to solve him, but once teams catch up to the pitch mix, it may not be any great advantage anymore. I do not believe the cutter is back yet.
DEF: 7
BSR: 1

Arizona bats (roof open actually slightly diminishes a still positive run environment on average) are a necessity tonight. That’s all we’re really interested in (though Tanner Gordon is $4.5K on DraftKings and could sneak into 10 points). Burnes is still outside my top five on this board and costs more than $9K. I don’t think he’s a bad play on any other day, just not this one.

This line has climbed to proportions we would expect if Corbin Burnes were really telling the truth about having his best cutter ever. That is not the case though and it’s a bit ridiculous at +340 now. Rox actually have a bullpen edge against ailing D'Backs. 

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Mariners @ Padres

We missed one and it will be Logan Evans making his fourth start of the season, rather than Diaz. I’m not sure he deserves one (5.9 K-BB%), though he has managed contact well (34 HardHit%). And to make matters worse, his 5.5 SwStr% can't even support his 16.2 K%. That still produces a 4.56 xERA, which is his second best estimator, behind a 4.47 Bot ERA. Not visible here, he would slide in between Tanner and Meyer in the pitch matchup ratings and not really move if pitch modeling were included. RHBs have a .420 wOBA and .387 xwOBA against him so far. It’s a small sample, but more than 100 points higher than LHBs.
DEF: -2
BSR: -1

Stephen Kolek barely survived Coors, winning by three touchdowns, but unable to throw more than nine innings on 104 pitches. He hasn’t allowed a run in 14.1 innings (his other start was in Pittsburgh), but will be challenged in a way he hasn’t yet been tonight. The 13.5 K-BB% and 45.9 HardHit% are a bit concerning, considering they came against two of the worst offenses in the league. RHBs have a .355 wOBA and .333 xwOBA in 61 innings since last year, though his 2024 work was entirely out of the bullpen with a 12.8 K-BB% and 40.8 HardHit%.
DEF: 0
BSR: 0

While I don’t believe in either of these pitchers, I believe in the park enough with temperatures at 60 degrees that I’m lukewarm at best on bats not named Tatis (139 wRC+ L30 days) or Machado (160).

Angels @ Dodgers

With a 3.2 K-BB%, 46.1 HardHit% and 9.2% Barrels/BBE even with a 48.9 GB%, Jack Koch has one estimator more than half a run below his 5.23 ERA and that’s a 4.63 Bot ERA that still puts him near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings, pitch modeling included or not. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against him in his career.
DEF: -7
BSR: 4

Dustin May is coming off his third quality start of the season in perhaps his best start of the season against the Diamondbacks. His velocity remains down more than two mph from 2023 and with just a 10.8 K-BB%, a 52.6 GB% is taming a 44.4 HardHit% (6.8% Barrels/BBE). His 4.08 ERA is within a quarter of a run of all estimators except for a 4.53 xERA. Another reverse platoon on this slate, RHBs have a .367 wOBA and .392 xwOBA against him and that could be problematic against the Angels.
DEF: -2
BSR: 1

We want bats here. Mostly left-handed Dodgers, but right-handed Angels are fine too. Also of note, a line that may have climbed just a bit too high (+245) considering May’s difficulties with RHBs.

Athletics @ Giants

J.P. Sears has not allowed more than three runs in a start this year and a total of six over his last five. He’s only started three games in Sacramento (both NY teams and Texas), but that’s still very impressive. While he’s running a career best 16 K-BB% with fewer barrels (7.4%), the 40% hard hit rate is still in line with his career average. A .254 BABIP and 82.9 LOB% ensure his 2.80 ERA is more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.34 to a 4.22 xFIP, but either way it’s improvement and he matches up pretty well with the Giants, who strike out a ton against LHP.
DEF: -10
BSR: 3

Two straight seven inning quality starts for Logan Webb gives him four of those on the year with a total of four runs in them and six quality starts overall. His 23 K-BB% is a career high, a result of increased slider usage (28.9%, 62 PitchingBot, 114 Pitching+), while he still sustains a 54.9 GB% just three points below his career rate. His 5.6% Barrels/BBE and 39.2 HardHit% are his best in three years too.
DEF: 0
BSR: 2

Needless to say, massive park upgrade for Sears, though not my favorite slight for an adequately priced pitcher. After some weather updates, Logan Webb is near the top of my board, behind only Sale on DraftKings, while potentially slightly behind Gore and Crochet also on FanDuel. Heliot Ramos (165 wRC+ L30 days) is the only bat grading well here.