Thursday 5/15 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Nationals @ Braves

Trevor Williams is proof that you don’t have to throw hard (87.3 mph) to have a highly graded fastball (35.8%, 69 PitchingBot, 112 Pitching+). That said, the -0.6 RV/100, 169 wRC+ and 5.7 SwStr% against it suggest it won’t necessarily perform well. At least four runs in four of his last six starts and three straight, but Williams did complete six innings for the first time in his last outing. Either you’re buying the grade on the fastball and that 3.32 Bot ERA or you’re buying additional estimators ranging from a 3.90 xERA to a 4.44 dERA, but all are much better than his 5.88 ERA (.358 BABIP, 66.1 LOB%). LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .321 xwOBA against Williams since last year.
DEF: -13
BSR: 0

AJSS tied a season high seven strikeouts in Pittsburgh last time out. He’s had an extremely easy schedule (Pirates, Reds, Rockies, Rays, Marlins last five), but only competed six innings once with his 2.76 ERA being held down by an 85.4 LOB%. Smith-Shawver seems to throw his 95 mph fastball (down a mph from last year) over the heart of the plate too much (49 Bot Command, 93 Location+), which has led to a 117 wRC+ and just 4.1 SwStr% against it. He could struggle against stronger competition and while Washington is not that, they have been a top five offense against fastballs (0.55 wFA/C). Smith has massive reverse split (RHBs .364 wOBA, .424 xwOBA) to go along with his 3.59 FIP to 5.12 xERA estimator range. Only one-third of his barrels have left the yard.
DEF: 8
BSR: 0

Twins @ Orioles

With 7.1 innings of one run ball against the Giants, striking out six with one walk, Chris Paddack not only posted his first quality start of the season last time out, but recorded his first sixth inning outs of the year. His velocity was up to a season high 95 mph (93.7 season). His fastball, changeup and curveball all graded above 70 PB and 120 P+ in the outing. The changeup (72, 130 on the season) is generally the star, though batters from either side of the plate are between a .323 and .347 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and his 4.76 ERA is supported by estimators ranging from a 4.49 xERA to a 5.09 FIP this year. The one exception being his 3.38 Bot ERA, almost entirely due to that changeup, despite it’s negative run value (-1.5 RV/100).
DEF: 5
BSR: -1

Before Tomo Sugano’s last start in Los Angeles, against the Angels…

Going into his start against the Yankees, Tomoyuki Sugano had struck out nine of the 113 batters he faced with a 7.0 SwStr%. Against the Yankees, he was a completely different pitcher, increasing his slider usage to 27.4% (has not reached 20% in any other start), while dropping his cutter usage to 3.2%. Sugano struck out eight of 22 Yankees over five shutout innings with a 15.8 SwStr%! Obviously, he continued upon this path in his next start against the Royals, except that (oh, no) he didn’t. The slider was used a season low 10.1% of the time with a season high 21.5% cutters (the slider is his only above average pitch grade on the season by the way). Sugano struck out four Royals with a 7.6 SwStr%. He and the Baltimore brain trust must believe it’s a better plan to rely on .242 BABIP and 91.2 LOB% sustaining than the swings and misses on the slider. Blegh! Statcast raises LHBs over 40 points and RHBs over 80 points against him.

With a predominantly right-handed lineup (and no, it’s not something I should have seen coming because the Yankees and Royals are well balanced), Sugano pumped the slider usage up to 24.7% again, striking out five of 25 batters over 7.1 one run innings, generating his second highest swinging strike rate of the season (11.8%). So, if you could ask whether he’ll be throwing his slder a lot before each start…(the Twins are a predominantly right-handed lineup too, while the .229 BABIP and 89.3 LOB% are going to regress no matter what).
DEF: -4
BSR: 0

If you believe he'll throw his slider more often against the Twins then his 3.5 K prop at +110 to the over may not be a bad deal. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. 

White Sox @ Reds

Since his first start, which includes one more long relief appearance, Bryse Wilson has struck out eight of 73 batters with 10 walks and a 7.0 SwStr%. Oddly, his velocity has increased in a starting role, but his performance has not. In addition to the worst pitch modeling and second worst pitch matchup rating on the board, all of Wilson’s estimators exceed his 4.88 ERA, which he’s somehow managed to achieve with an 81 LOB%.
DEF: -6
BSR: 4

Three straight quality starts, his first three of the season, for Nick Martinez, despite three runs last time out in Houston. The most encouraging thing is the 11 strikeouts without a walk in his last two starts to increase his K-BB from 10.9% to 14.1%. It’s difficult to compare him to last year when he spent some time in the pen and was better there than in a starting role the last two seasons. He’s gone more slider heavy in these last two starts (21.8% after 12.5% prior). All of his pitch grades have spiked (2.87 Bot ERA, 110 Pitching+ with increased slider usage). With just a 36.5 HardHit% on the season, Martinez’s contact inclusive estimators fall below four with contact neutral ones closer to his 4.24 ERA. He falls in the middle of our pitch matchup ratings because his sinker has been a stinker, though he led with it 27.4% of the time in his last start.
DEF: -1
BSR: 0

These two pitchers combine to throw 11 different pitches between 10% and 25% of the time this season with none more or less often.

Last 30 day bullpen numbers below. 

Rays @ Blue Jays

Zach Littell has walked one or fewer in six of eight starts with the 4.8% walk rate doing the heavy lifting in his 11.2 K-BB%. With that, he’s already allowed 19 barrels on a 45.6 HardHit%. While his 4.40 ERA matches his 4.45 SIERA and 4.38 xFIP with a .237 BABIP, his xERA (4.80) and FIP (5.17) are quite a bit higher. He does get a park upgrade in Toronto at least and sits upper middle of the board in pitch matchup ratings, despite his poor pitch modeling. A big reason for this is that Toronto is third worst in the league against sliders (-1.47 wSL/C).
DEF: -1
BSR: -3

Kevin Gausman has some massive Home (26.2 K-BB%)/Road (10.2 K-BB%) this season. It’s a small sample that includes both New York teams, Houston, Seattle and Boston on the road with three home starts against the Orioles, Braves and Guardians, while his best start of the season was at Fenway. He’s failed to post a quality start in three straight road starts since then, but has in both home starts. On the season, his 3.97 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators except a 4.41 dERA and 3.15 Bot ERA. It’s the fastball (64 PB, 113 P+), up 0.5 mph from last year, but inconsistent from start to start, that pitch modeling loves, rather than the splitter (33.1%, 55 PB, 99 P+). It is Tampa Bay’s likely small sample struggle against splitters (-1.84 wFS/C is bottom quarter of the league) driving his move atop the pitch matchup ratings today.
DEF: 4
BSR: -1

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Astros @ Rangers

Four straight starts with exactly nine strikeouts for Hunter Brown. True, the last two were against the White Sox and Reds, but the contact prone Royals and Blue Jays preceding that. He failed to compile a quality start in his last outing for the first time this year. He shut out the Reds, but fell an out short, due to a season high four walks. Brown has been slowly increasing his slider usage with each start (50 PB, 118 P+), negating his mph velocity drop over his last three starts. I’d have to imagine with Seager on the IL and the strength of the Texas lineup right-handed, Brown’s slider ascent will continue here. Although, he tops the pitch matchup ratings due to the combined run values of every pitch except sliders against the Rangers. The 1.48 ERA is a bit fluky because every ERA that low is, but the 3.36 Bot ERA is his worst estimator by half a run.
DEF: 4
BSR: 0

Since I kidded that Jacob deGrom should increase his velocity against LHBs, who still have a .333 wOBA and .315 xwOBA against him since last year, he has increased velocity from 96.6 over his first three starts to 97.3 mph his last three. He only has one game start (Seattle ironically) below a 25 K-BB% when he’s averaged at least 97 mph, including his last outing with a season high 10 strikeouts (Tigers). He only has one outing above 20% below 97 mph. If he’s not going to throw his platoon busting changeup, the extra velocity may be necessary to thrive against lefties and that looks to be the route he is going. DeGrom jumps out to a big lead when including pitch modeling with pitch matchup ratings, but is more middle of the board with just pitch run values because the Astros are middle of the league against both fastballs and sliders.
DEF: 4
BSR: -1

This is the main event on a short slate and the only thing stopping me from siding with Houston (just barely) is the lack of LHBs. RHBs have a .242 wOBA and .216 xwOBA against deGrom since last year. DeGrom threw a season high 96 pitches in a showcase effort against the Dodgers, his only start with more than 90 pitches. In this big inner-state division rivalry, they may allow him to do the same.