Wednesday 5/14 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Brewers @ Guardians

Logan Hendersons major league debut and only outing came on April 20^th against the A’s. He struck out nine of 21 with a single walk, which helped him navigate a pair of barrels and seven hard hit batted balls (63.6%). Henderson impressed in spring training with a 13.2 K-BB% over 8.2 innings and moved into the back end of the Fangraphs Top 100 pre-season Prospects at #88 with 50 Future Value grade. He’s gone on to strike out 34.8% of batters at AAA with a 9.6 BB%, but just a 32.8 HardHit%. Henderson doesn’t generate ground balls and doesn’t throw hard (92.5 mph) with just a two pitch mix around 80% of the time, but one of those is a changeup that graded elitely in his first start (69 PitchingBot, 116 Pitching+), which should help him against a predominantly left-handed Cleveland lineup. Projections optimistically average around four for the 23 year-old.
DEF: -1
BSR: -2

Gavin Williams shut out the Phillies through five innings last start, striking out eight of 21, but walking another four. With a league average 13.2 K-BB%, over 40% of the batters he’s faced are either walking or striking out and it’s kept his starts to five innings or less 75% of the time this year. None of Williams’ pitches grade well by both pitch modeling systems and his 97.1 mph fastball has been lit for a 201 wRC+ and -1.75 RV/100. With estimators ranging from a 3.85 xFIP to a 5.19 xERA, Williams has had major issues with RHBs going back to last year (.386 wOBA, .357 xwOBA).

DEF: 1
BSR: 3

I don’t usually go in depth on off the board arms earlier in the day without a reason and you can probably guess my reason from the above. The Guardians are a moderate favorite at home, but if Henderson’s projections are anywhere close to right, there’s really no area where the home team owns much of an edge. In fact, there’s a decent change Henderson might be better than Williams right now, which might be enough to counter small Cleveland edges offensively and in the bullpen. I especially like the changeup against Cleveland and will side lightly with the road team here F5 (+126), escaping the bullpen battle. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. 

Diamondbacks @ Giants

Eduardo Rodriguez was blistered by the Giants last time out, while 31 of his 48 strikeouts have come in just three of his eight starts. All three of those games were on the road and are the only double digit strikeout efforts he’s had. This appears to be a strong bounce back spot for him (Giants 81 wRC+, 25.9 K% v LHP).
DEF: 1
BSR: 3

Jordan Hicks has had his velocity bounce around in a three mph band from 95.7 to 98.7 with one start seeming to have no baring on the next. He has consistently had three to seven strikeouts per game (13.2 K-BB%) with at least a 52.9 GB% in five straight, while the hard hit rates have been all over the place too.

DEF: -5
BSR: 2

A pair of volatile pitchers in a game I and the books have nearly dead even.

Yankees @ Mariners

Striking out seven of 27 A’s over 7.1 innings and allowing just a single run in Sacramento last time out, Will Warren has increased his K-BB% to 15.8% on the season and 18% since his first start. He still has some contact problems (10.9% Barrels/BBE, 51.5 HardHit%), but he’s in the right park for that particular problem. Pitch modeling is a fan, particularly of the sweeper (66 PB, 120 P+), a pitch the Mariners have struggled against (-0.54 wSL/C). Despite the 4.75 ERA, his 4.37 xERA is the only estimator above four (64.5 LOB%).
DEF: 2
BSR: 0

Luis Castillo has a 5.0 K-BB% over his last five starts and his velocity was down to 93.6 mph last season (94.7 avg this year, 95.6 last year and 96.3 2023). LHBs have a .330 wOBA against Castillo AT HOME this year. They’re above .340 overall (wOBA and xwOBA) since last year. While he doesn’t have an estimator reaching five, all exceed his 3.95 ERA.

DEF: -2
BSR: -3

One on the rise. One on the decline and I don’t really see anywhere the Mariners have an edge here. Either F5 or full game are fine as long as it’s close.

Red Sox @ Tigers

While Hunter Dobbins has prospered in three of his four starts, two of them were the White Sox and Royals, though he has impressively posted at least a 12.7 SwStr% in three of four starts and was up to 96.1 mph last time out. With 49.3% of his contact on the ground, he’s allowed just three barrels. Dobbins’ 4.04 Bot ERA is the worst of his estimators and he doesn’t really throw anything the Tigers have struggled against. LHBs have a .394 wOBA against him, but an xwOBA over 100 points less.
DEF: 3
BSR: 4

Tarik Skubal has struck out 31 of his last 68 batters and at least eight in five of his last seven with a 20.1 SwStr% over that span. Boston’s projected lineup (Roster Resource) includes EIGHT with at least a 23.5 K% against LHP since last year and Skubal is currently sitting at 7.5 at even money on FanDuel (probably not for long).

DEF: 4
BSR: 3

In addition to Skubal, I also considered Dobbin’s K-prop, but with a more marginal edge in a small sample, I’ve decided to pass for now.

Rays @ Blue Jays

While Ryan Pepiot has posted three quality starts in his last four (against the Padres, Yankees and Phillies too) and is also a pitch modeling darling (2.89 Bot ERA, 111 Pitching+), he’s struck out just seven of his last 60 with six walks. Perhaps we do give his 11.8 K-BB% some slack for the difficult schedule (the Yankees were his one non-quality start in there too, but he’s also posted sub-10 K-BB marks against the Angels and Pirates in April. He has some regression coming to that 81.6 LOB% with no other estimators below 4.29 (SIERA).
DEF: -5
BSR: -3

Chris Bassitt struck out six of 29 Angels with only one walk, but also allowed five runs (four earned), giving him 16 runs over his last 22.1 innings with a 14.6 K-BB% and and 35 HardHit%. Yes, he’s allowed more home runs (six) than barrels (five over that span) and with just a 69.1 LOB%, but LHBs continue to be a problem for him (.347 wOBA this season, .375 wOBA and .366 xwOBA since last season) and I just have a difficult time really trusting him unless he can figure that out.

DEF: 4
BSR: 0

Considering everything I’ve just said, this is how bad the state of pitching is on this slate. Bassitt may still be the top arm on the board. It’s a neutral run environment, while the Rays struggle away from home and will strike out. The one thing Bassitt should give you is depth, recording sixth inning outs in all but one start. The good news is that you don’t  have to worry about rostering Pepiot against the Jays who don’t strike out. The bad news is that you won’t have much more information if he only strikes out another few here.

Pirates @ Mets

Bailey Falter has stranded 100% of runners and allowed just four hits over 13 innings to the Braves and Padres. He’s done this with an impressive 33.3 HardHit%, but just 7.3 SwStr%, which has brought his season mark down to 8.0%. He does have a 3.61 ERA, his only estimator outside a 4.36 to 4.55 range, into which his 4.36 falls, matching his Bot ERA. You’d think that xERA was a product of managing contact well, but Falter’s 44.5 HardHit% on the season is the worst mark of his career. With just a 10.4 K-BB% and 37.3 GB%, I can’t possibly fathom how he’s stifled those two offenses or has such a low xERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .309 and .343 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -3
BSR: 4

Clay Holmes has posted three quality starts in his last four tries and it’s nice to see him pushing deeper into games, especially against the likes of the Cubs and Cardinals (twice) in those starts. Only one of his six barrels has left the park, which explains a 2.74 ERA and near matching 2.62 FIP, but with a 53 GB%, he’s only allowing 5.2% Barrels/BBE with the rest of his estimators ranging from a 3.06 (xERA) to 3.86 (Bot ERA). My only caution would be in the K/SwStr chart. His 24.7 K% edges on what’s probably possible with an 8.9 SwStr% and has dropped a bit over the last 30 days, but he’s also generating called strikes at an above average rate.

DEF: -6
BSR: -3

I’m not buying on Falter and have him rated as one of the worst values on the board. The only question is whether the weather in a pitcher friendly park will allow us to attack him with confidence. Despite a great matchup in a great park, I have Holmes a bit behind Bassitt because I have the latter projected to go deeper with better defense and the top framer in the league so far (Kirk). Alvarez has been surprisingly below average so far.

White Sox @ Reds

Davis Martin has been hit or miss, but taken as a whole, his 4.01 ERA is in line with his 3.92 Bot ERA (60 grade changeup), but more than one-third of a run below all other estimators (8.7 K-BB%) and well below his 6.13 xERA (47.5 HardHit%). He has a reverse split since last year with RHBs owning a .354 wOBA against him, but Statcast reverses that, giving LHBs a .354 xwOBA. This does not seem like the idea park for his contact profile.
DEF: 1
BSR: 4

Nick Lodolo has sandwiched his worst start of the year (seven runs against the Nationals) in between his two highest strikeout efforts (nine at Coors and seven in Atlanta) over his last three starts. He seems to be phasing out his changeup (14.3% against the Nationals, 7.3% in Atlanta) and moving more to a three pitch mix with his fastball, sinker and curveball. The changeup grades out as average with none of the other pitches significantly passing it, but in terms of run value, the changeup has been his only positive pitch (2.9 RV/100). Mostly due to a 3.6 BB%, Lodolo’s estimators range from 3.69 dERA and xERA to a 4.04 xFIP, which is fine, even if strikeouts are down to 19.3%.

DEF: -1
BSR: 1

Lodolo is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and a much better value for $1K less on FanDuel and right now, he’s my number two overall due to the matchup. Martin is a guy we’re normally looking to attack in this park, but good luck finding competent bats outside the expensive De La Cruz.

Nationals @ Braves

Despite being shelled for 16 runs (15 earned) over his last 13 innings, Mitchell Parker started so well that his ERA is still slightly shy of four. His -7.4 K-BB% over this span drops his season rate to 2.0% with a 42.1 HardHit%, but somehow just 3.2% Barrels/BBE with a league average ground ball rate. Just one of his five barrels has left the yard. Those barrels keep his xERA below four (3.84), though all non-contact estimators run around four and a half or higher. He has a surprisingly strong run value matchup against the Braves, who have run negative against fastballs, curveballs and splitters, not to mention their issues against LHP (69 wRC+, 23.2 K%).
DEF: -13
BSR: 1

Nine runs over Bryce Elder’s last 23 innings gives him three quality starts in his last four tries. A 14.0 K-BB% over that span drives his season rate up to 11.3%, though with 10.6% Barrels/BBE and a 50% hard hit rate even with half his contact on the ground. His velocity has been up around a mph from his first three starts and last year over this span, but Elder has been phasing out his fastball in favor or more sinkers and sliders. He posted his first double digit SwStr% of the season against Pittsburgh last time out. Pitch modeling likes the slider (61 PB, 119 P+), but nothing else. All of Elder’s non-FIP estimators are below his 4.97 ERA with only a 3.93 xFIP below four. Eight of his 12 barrels have been home runs.

DEF: 13
BSR: 0

Near 80 degrees at Truist tonight and I’m off both of these pitchers with some judicious bat usage (Riley, Wood, Ozuna, Abrams all grade well).

Bullpen stats from the last 30 days below. 

Marlins @ Cubs

Ryan Weathers prospect status has long since lapsed, but every year he seems to be the subject of some velocity spike hype, rarely capitalizing on it. However, many my not have noticed that after a rough April, Weathers posted a 19.7 K-BB% and 36.4 HardHit% over his last 10 game starts. Again, this spring, Weathers boasted boosted velocity, which he’s carried through his minor league rehab starts (97.6 mph with a 22.5 K-BB%). However, his two AAA rehab starts (7.2 innings) returned a 9.7 K-BB%. Projections are in the low to mid-fours. Weathers may be able to beat that, but RHBs exceeded a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him last year.
DEF: -9
BSR: 6

In six starts after his first, Taillon allowed 11 runs in 35.1 innings with a 16.1 K-BB% (better than any season in Chicago) and 35.4 HardHit% (would be his best mark since Pittsburgh). That fell apart against the Mets, who took him deep four times on SIX barrels (35.3%) in his last start. His barrel rate is up to 12.4%, despite a 39.4 HardHit% with his K-BB holding steady at 14.4%. While LHBs have generally been the issue with Taillon, RHBs have six of his 10 home runs surrendered with a .395 wOBA against him this year. Pitch modeling is on his side, as you can see below, but additional estimators all reside above four with only his FIP stretching above five.

DEF: 6
BSR: -1

Pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley again with Weathers costing just $5.7K on DraftKings. Mayyyyybeeee? He faced 17 batters in his last AAA start. Taillon is probably a borderline top five guy on a weak slate, due mostly to matchup and conditions on an 18 pitcher board. That said, I don’t see any particular value in his cost of $8.5K or more. He matches up marginally against the Marlins who have struggled against cutters, but had success against curveballs and sliders.

Rockies @ Rangers

Antonio Senzatela has a 53.9 GB% and 4.9 BB%. He also has a lower strikeout rate (10.3%) than barrel rate (10.9%) with a 47.4 HardHit%. He has the worst Bot ERA on the board and the worst pitch matchup rating, pitch modeling included or not, and batters from either side of the plate have a .397 or higher wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -4
BSR: 0

The cutter (20.6%, 69 PB, 117 P+) has revived Patrick Corbin’s career and pulled his entire pitch modeling into a league average range. That said, even with a 31.4 HardHit%, his 5.9 K-BB% drives all remaining estimators above four and a half with an 85.9 LOB% nearly 15 points above his career rate. RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

DEF: 4
BSR: 1

The Braves likely have the top run environment on the board (102 park run factor with decent weather), but Texas’s weather protected 96 with the roof closed is probably top half of this board as well. I still don’t hate Corbin here. That’s how bad the Colorado offense is. That’s how bad this board is. Hell, I might even be okay with punting Senzatela if you want to load up with bats on DraftKings (I’m not using him on a single pitcher site – and probably not really on DK either). At $5K, he can luck into 10 points against a below average offense with Seager sidelined again. Still, bats, bats and more bats here. Joc Pederson (141 wRC+ L30 days) may be the top value on the board.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Royals @ Astros

One start after being blasted for four home runs in Baltimore, Michael Lorenzon posted his best start of the season against the Red Sox with as many innings (seven) as strikeouts with only one walk, three hits and no runs. With an 83.3 LOB%, his 3.57 ERA is well below estimators all starting with a four. While the pitch matchup rating is average or middle of the board here, consider his .344 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against RHBs when facing Houston tonight.
DEF: 0
BSR: -1

Colton Gordon has posted a 25.3 K% and 4.7 BB% at AAA this season, but has been pitching there since 2023 (16.3 K-BB% last year and 4.9% in smaller sample the year before) and at 26 years-old projects just a 35+ Future Value grading without a standout pitch. The best thing about him may be the command. There has been no Fangraphs ink spilled on him this year.

DEF: 1
BSR: -3

I don’t know how to handle Gordon. The Astros have a moderate 4.4 run team total. I like right-handed Houston bats for value against Lorenzon and most of them have been hitting well over the last month, but none really stand out over the last year plus overall.

Angels @ Padres

Kyle Hendricks is posting his best hard hit rate (30.9%) since 2018, but has still allowed 10 barrels with his strikeout rate down to 14.2% and a 10.1% walk rate. His best estimator is a 3.83 Bot ERA, then a 4.61 xERA. He does matchup well with the Padres, who have been awful against sinkers and changeups and might do well to entirely scrap the fastballs and curves against them.
DEF: -10
BSR: 0

With five strikeouts and one walk, Randy Vasquez posted his first positive K-BB% of the season last time out. Any guesses who it was against? Yes, you’re right. He’s still at a -4.1 K-BB%. The reason for his solid ranking on the pitch matchup ratings is because the sinker has done well from a run value perspective. Pitch modeling likes his slider and curveball, which the Angels have struggled against. His best non-pitch modeling estimator is a 5.30 FIP. Even with a 33.6 HardHit%, he’s allowed 10.8% Barrels/BBE with an xERA around six. LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, which won’t really hurt him here.

DEF: -3
BSR: 0

You see how ugly this slate is, don’t you? Pitcher friendly weather in a pitcher friendly park, fine, punt your SP2 with Vasquez too against a team without any LHBs to fear (though Schanuel and Moncado grade well against him). I don’t know if you can do much with Hendricks either way besides Tatis (164 wRC+ L30 days) or Merrill (274 wRC+ since return).

Athletics @ Dodgers

The offspring of former WWF champions Hulk Hogan and Bob Backlund, Gunnar Hoglund, has acquitted himself admirably through two matches…I mean starts, especially considering one was against one of the top offenses in the league this year (Seattle) in the most hitter friendly park (Sacramento). A 20.4 K-BB% with just one barrel and a 36.4 HardHit% deserves some love, even in a small sample. He certainly steps up to the top level of competition tonight, but has strong pitch modeling, led by his sinker (75 PB, 171 P+). Even in a small sample, sitting in the middle of the pitch matchup rating is an accomplishment against the Dodgers, who hit every offering well. Hoglund posted an impressive 20 K-BB% at AAA as well.
DEF: -10
BSR: 4

Yoshi Yama is coming off his second poor outing in three starts, first against the Pirates (four walks) and lastly, in Arizona (five runs, two home runs). Even with an 11.9 K-BB% over that span, he’s still up at 22.3% on the season with just 5.6% Barrels/BBE and a 40.2 HardHit%. One minor concern is that his velocity has been slowly dropping. Down from 96.8 mph in his first start and a 95.5 mph average both this year and last to below 95 mph in each of his last two starts. As such, his fastball grades have dropped to 41 PB and 80 P+ over this three start span as well. RHBs have a very average .316 wOBA and .305 xwOBA against him in his career. The A’s have hit fastballs well, but not curveballs and splitters, which is why Yamamoto appears near the top of our pitch matchup ratings. His 3.63 Bot ERA is his only estimator above three, but he would do well to shelve that fastball here, as much as possible, if the velo is down even further.

DEF: -2
BSR: 2

I think I’ve done well to explain why Yamamoto is not my top pitcher tonight in a tough spot in probably the second most hitter friendly park (even 100 park factor) on Wednesday night. He probably has to use the fastball to set up the splitter and that’s a concern against the A’s. Not that I think he’ll get trounced, but he costs far more than any other pitcher and may not be a good value here. Hoglund won’t sustain his strand rate above 80%, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he pitched reasonably well again tonight.