Tuesday 5/13 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Brewers @ Guardians

LHBs are above a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against Quinn Priester, who has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in four straight starts. Great spot, huh?
DEF: 2
BSR: -2

Logan Allen has been shelled for 13 runs (12 earned) over his last 14 innings with as many walks (nine) as strikeouts. RHBs reach a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: 1
BSR: 4

Neither of these pitchers have a positive graded pitch by PitchingBot. You can see these two guys would be the two bottom dwellers if we included pitch model grading into the pitch matchup ratings. In fact, most of the bottom of that board gets run through before we even get to the main daily fantasy slate. I should also probably get it out of the way that every game until we to domes is below 70 degrees (some in the 50s) with at least some change of rain, according to early google reports.

Twins @ Orioles

Simeon Woods-Richardson has recorded just three sixth inning outs all season and has failed to finish five in three of his last four with a best estimator of a 4.41 SIERA.
DEF: 8
BSR: 0

Cade Povich has a 3.95 Bot ERA, but no other estimator below his 4.36 xFIP. Seven of his 14 barrels (12%) have left the park this year with RHBs owning a .366 wOBA and .348 xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -10
BSR: 1

If we’re going just by pitch value, Povich is bottom of the board. With both these pitchers going poorly, the O’s have an offensive edge, but the Twins have just as large defensive and bullpen edges. If this line climbs much higher, Minnesota could be the side. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for more.

Red Sox @ Tigers

Brayan Bello walked five of the 21 Rangers he faced last time out, struck out one and did not allow a run. He has a 97.1 LOB% through four starts, while LHBs have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season.
DEF: 7
BSR: 4

This looks like Keider Montero with an opener. Since striking out eight of 24 Brewers with a single walk in his first start, he’s walked nine of 69 with seven walks and also allowed two runs over his last 12.1 innings. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .345 and .358 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: 4
BSR: 2

Bello could come out of nowhere and throw a gem (like he did against Minnesota two starts back) and then look lost in his next outing. What an erratic arm. Hey, look! Two more near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings, even worse with pitch modeling.

Now for some Ks and Swinging Strikes. Beware Andrew Abbott. 

White Sox @ Reds

While Jonathan Cannon has only struck out six of his last 53 batters, he hasn’t walked any. Yet, his 8.2 K-BB% is still a bit below his 8.7 BB%. There’s some work to do with estimators ranging from a 4.37 xERA to a 4.99 dERA well above his 4.09, though the 3.95 Bot ERA is an outlier. The only pitch both modeling systems agree on is the slider (57 PB, 118 P+), a pitch the Reds have struggled with (-0.53 wSL/C is bottom third of the league).
DEF: -3
BSR: 4

Speak of the devil…19 of Andrew Abbott’s 31 strikeouts have come in two starts in Atlanta and Baltimore. Of course, the rest of his starts with fewer strikeouts came against the Pirates, Rockies and Cardinals. That’s’ because he doesn’t deserve them, being above an 8.8 SwStr% only against the Orioles. That said, his fastball velocity was up 1.3 mph to 92.8 mph last time out, which was his average velocity last year. He decided to throw fewer fastballs and curveballs and more sliders than he's thrown in any other start this year (28.6%) and it worked to shut down the Braves. His pitch modeling is horrible and he walks far too many with an unsustainable strikeout rate, but he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (25.5% this year).
DEF: -1
BSR: 1

Andrew Abbott and the Reds probably shouldn’t be large favorites against anyone. If you stripped the names away, I might lean White Sox here. The problem is that I know they’re the White Sox.

Cardinals @ Phillies

Four quality starts in Sonny Gray’s last five tries. Two of those of the six inning, three run variety, but the other two, including his last start, consisted of seven shutout innings. Gray still has a 19.4 K-BB%, but the contact profile has been going in the wrong direction for a couple of seasons now and the pitch modeling is declining. I’d be slightly worried about an overall decline, but he also has contact neutral estimators matching his 3.50 ERA.
DEF: 11
BSR: -1

Even when Jesus Luzardo has struggled this season, it hasn’t been that bad. He’s only allowed as many as three runs once. His hard hit rate is right around his career rate, just below 40%, but he’s cut his barrels significantly (6.3%) with his highest ground ball rate since the pandemic, while two points above his career K-BB at 19.8%.
DEF: -8
BSR: 1

Watch out for the Cardinals. I mentioned the defensive disparity between these two teams last night and, of course, Nolan Arenado’s glove is what costs STL a F5 victory. Don’t worry though, they won the game, immediately scoring in the each of the next two innings. 

Rays @ Blue Jays

This looks to be Shane Baz, who DraftKings already has a K-prop for, but no F5 line. Since starting the season a house of fire, Baz looked like he had just a rough start against a good Yankee offense, when he bounced back with seven shutout innings in San Diego. However, he’s now allowed 13 more runs in nine innings since then (Phillies and Royals both in Tampa Bay) with more walks (five) and as many barrels (four) as strikeouts. He hasn’t reached a double digit SwStr% since prior to the Yankee start and you may be able to blame that on the schedule. While he has cut his slider usage down to 7.3% (34 PitchingBot, 97 Pitching+) and countered with a knucklecurve (51, 114), he probably needs to dump it entirely. It doesn’t miss bats (6.3 SwStr%) and is still responsible for three of the five home runs he’s surrendered with a 362 wRC+ against.
DEF: -4
BSR: -3

Is this a Jose Berrios resurgence? He’s struck out 17 of his last 54 batters and going back one further start to the Yankees, he’s allowed just four runs over 18 innings. However, he also walked five Angels last time out and has allowed five barrels with a 56.7 HardHit% to those 54 batters. He is coming off a 19.1 SwStr% in Los Angeles, but is still in single digits on the season (9.5%). Berrios stopped throwing his fastball against the Angels (7.9%) and went 42.7% curveballs. That’s interesting, but it was a poor team in which the strikeouts were the only positive and he probably faced only a couple of LHBs. I’m not sold, unless he’s going to keep throwing his curveball that much.
DEF: 4
BSR: -1

The good news is that we can easily drop Baz as he figures it out. The Blue Jays offer no strikeout upside. His ceiling is probably, what? Six or seven? Berrios is more interesting in his lower price on DraftKings. The Rays may offer some strikeouts and is that minor league park propping up the offense. Their road wRC+ makes me question it.

Pirates @ Mets

Mitch Keller’s last three quality starts have all literally been six innings with three runs allowed. With just three of his 10 barrels leaving the park this year (pitching mostly in a park that kills RH power), Keller’s 3.69 FIP is his only estimator below four with his xERA being the most alarming at 5.16. LHBs have a .353 wOBA and .358 xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -1
BSR: 1

Walking a season high five Diamondbacks in his last start, Kodai Senga still doesn’t seem right, but the concerns have been hidden by an 87.4 LOB% and just one home run on six barrels. His velocity remains down about a mph and it’s affected his fastball grading (40 PB, 88 P+), resulting in a 5.13 Bot ERA and 93 Pitching+. PitchingBot does not grade the forkball, while Pitching+ does give it a 111 mark. That could be part of the poor grading because batters have a -2 wRC+ and 21.5 SwStr% against it. The problem has been getting ahead of hitters often enough to get them to chase that pitch.
DEF: -5
BSR: -3

I’m not sure the weather will cooperate enough for us to get to LHBs against Keller and on the other side, Senga is too expensive for how he’s been pitching, even in a potentially great matchup. It may not be against Pittsburgh, but he has negative regression coming. Senga does top our pitch matchup run value scores and that’s all forkball (2.7 RV/100), a pitch other teams won’t face often and I’m including split-fingers.

Nationals @ Braves

Mike Soroka returned from the IL to strike out eight of 22 Guardians in his second start of the season. With LHBs owning a .335 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him since last season, how did he do it? For one, his velocity was up to 94.4 (93.5 mph last season, 94.1 mph first start). He also threw 43.6% sliders…to mostly opposite handed batters. He did end up getting into trouble in at the end and allowing four runs, but this is a stunning and potentially unrepeatable development. It’s not supposed to work like that.
DEF: -10
BSR: 0

It was hard to tell if Spencer Schwellenbach had gotten back on track after allowing 19 runs (17 earned) in his previous 21.2 innings or it was just the Reds. I was watching this one and it didn’t look dominant. It looked like he got away with more than a few pitches, but his 97.2 mph velocity was a season high. His pitch modeling is essentially tied for best on the board and a 3.98 xERA (45.7 HardHit%, but just 6.4% Barrels/BBE with a 48.2 GB%) is his only estimator above a 3.61 ERA.
DEF: 10
BSR: -1

I have no idea whether or not to buy into Soroka, but this is probably not the spot to do it, though it’s been a season plus a quarter of another one where the Atlanta offense hasn’t scared many, so it’s easy enough to avoid their high prices against him too. On the other hand, Schwellenbach probably deserves some exposure for less than $9K when half the board’s more than that. Don’t overrate the matchup though. It’s merely average.

Marlins @ Cubs

Vallente Bellozo has the lowest hard hit rate on the daily fantasy slate (27.5%) and a well graded slider (61 PB, 107 P+), which he should probably throw more than 16.1% of the time, though maybe not against the Cubs (0.64 wSL/C is best in baseball). Bellozo threw 5.1 innings of shutout ball (one hit) at the Dodgers, striking out seven of 18 batters with two walks to finally put his K-BB into positive numbers. Did the Dodgers even show up for that series? With an 18% ground ball rate, he’s still allowed five barrels (10.8%) in four starts, driving his xERA up to 3.82, his only estimator within half a run of his 3.50 ERA. If you consider just one of his five barrels have left the park, none of his remaining non-FIP estimators are below five. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .327 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Bellozo in his career.
DEF: -8
BSR: 4

Ben Brown struck out a season high nine of 22 Giants last time out. The good news is that he misses bats (26 K%, 12.6 SwStr%). The bad news is everything else. He walks too many (9.5%) and is a bit too hard contact prone (44.3%) because he only has two pitches. The fastball is below average and the curveball is merely average. Potentially problematic for him here, the Marlins are average against fastballs and one of the best offenses in the league against curveballs (0.83 wCU/C).
DEF: 7
BSR: -2

If you’re ignoring the individual pitch matchups, Ben Brown looks great at home against the Marlins in pitcher friendly weather. A top five arm for $8.3K or less. He might be the best value on the board, but his two pitch approach does scare me a bit here. We’ll have to wait until a morning more accurate weather report before deciding whether or not to attack Bellozo, but if we do, it’s a stack with all the walks and a few barrels.

Last 30 day bullpen estimators below. 

Rockies @ Rangers

Away from Coors this season, batters have a 13.1 K-BB% and .301 wOBA against Kyle Freeland. That’s not great by any stretch, but it’s average, especially with an above average ground ball rate (46.7% on the road). In four road starts, the only one he doesn’t have a quality start in was against the Padres. With a .390 BABIP and 51.8 LOB% overall, his 4.55 xERA is his only estimator with two and a half runs of his 6.41 ERA. Massive regression coming here. Or at least, he should continue to pitch well enough on the road.
DEF: -3
BSR: -1

Jack Leiter has not struck out more batters than he’s walked in any of his three starts back from the IL. It’s like he’s reverted and forgotten everything he’s learned while injured. With the exception of a 4.40 xERA and 4.00 Bot ERA, every other one of his estimators is more than a run higher than Freeland’s.
DEF: 2
BSR: 1

The Rangers surprised us with a roof opening on Monday and then played a 2-1 game. It’s because Seager is banged up again and without him, they pretty much stink and the Rockies can’t score anywhere. However, the bullpen hasn’t been bad and Colorado has an overall pitching edge in this matchup. Leiter certainly has more upside, but the volatility is out of hand and he only has a handful (or less) of competent major league starts. With a pitcher like that on the mound and their offensive numbers, how are the Rangers a two to one favorite here?

Assuming a closed roof, Freeland is actually a punt option on a strong pitching board. If the roof is open again, I’m fine attacking either of these pitchers, though still would probably stick to the top of the Colorado lineup.

Royals @ Astros

Kris Bubic has gone beyond five in just two of his last four starts, but both were seven shutout innings with at least six strikeouts. Bubic has only allowed earned runs in three of his eight starts. The 84.3 LOB% will regress and just 20% of his barrels have left the park, but with a 17 K-BB% and hard hit rate just below 40%, Bubic’s worst estimator is a 3.71 Bot ERA and he still sits near the top of the pitch matchup ratings. Houston is the offense he’s struggled the most against, allowing four runs in five innings with four strikeouts and three walks with a season high 56.3 HardHit%. If you think it’s because they’re entirely right-handed, think again. Batters from that side have a wOBA and xwOBA below .260 against Bubic since last year.
DEF: 0
BSR: -1

Framber Valdez registered his third quality start of at least seven innings with two runs or less last time out. Five of his last six starts have been on the road with Kansas City the only positive run environment he’s pitched in. The ground ball rate is a career low 53.4%, which has him at a career worst 8.3% Barrels/BBE with a 45.1 HardHit% that’s not too far off his career average. Valdez is sporting a 13.8 K-BB% that’s exactly a point below his career rate. Yet, he has the best Bot ERA (3.52) of his career. He should match up well with the Royals, who make a lot of contact, but have had their problems with sinkers (-0.63 wSI/C).
DEF: 1
BSR: -3

The lack of strikeouts takes Valdez out of the running for me today. While I have Bubic as a potential top five arm, he’s surprisingly the second most expensive. I still don’t hate it and wouldn’t expect him to be very popular, but there are pitchers I like more.

Angels @ Padres

Jose Soriano will keep the ball on the ground (62.5%), so you can’t really do anything with him, unless you blast him with a full on stack and hope he walks the park and gets BABIP’d (10.3 BB%, 48.9 HardHit%). He also doesn’t miss enough bats to roster (19.1 K%). Soriano has a reverse split since last season (RHBs .335 wOBA, .326 xwOBA) and there’s not much else to say.
DEF: 6
BSR: 0

Oh, so Dylan Cease was only waiting on a trip to Yankee Stadium to post his longest outing (6.2 innings) and second quality start of the year. He struck out a season high nine of 24 Yankees with also a season best 50% of his batted balls on the ground. His fastball velocity (97.8 mph) was his best of the season, as was his 20.2 SwStr%. Cease still has a 9.6 BB% and has allowed 10.8% Barrels/BBE, though all estimators are now at least two-thirds of a run below his 4.91 ERA (.333 BABIP, 64.9 LOB%).
DEF: -3
BSR: 2

Dylan Cease is my top pitcher on the board in a great matchup against a predominantly right-handed offense in a pitcher friendly park below 60 degrees. That said, I feel it in my gut that he’s going to go right back to frustrating us and was merely amped up to audition for the Yankees in free agency. I don’t know. Numbers say he’s the top pitcher and maybe the top value for $9K or less. You can’t use Soriano against the Padres. There’s a very low ceiling. You can stack against him, but I don’t even really love that.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Yankees @ Mariners

Six straight quality starts with a total of four runs (three earned) over 41.1 innings with an 18.6 K-BB% for Max Fried. His hard hit rate is up to 41.3% over that span and is his highest since 2019 at 37% for the season, while his ground ball rate is a career low 50.7%. These are some career worsts for him, but also numbers most other pitchers would aspire to. Fried’s worst estimator is a 3.57 xFIP, even if there is some regression coming (.231 BABIP, 85.5 LOB%). The Mariners have a 24.3 K% at home and 25.5% against LHP.
DEF: 6
BSR: 0

Bryan Woo is coming off four straight road starts and the only one he’s struggled in was in Sacramento. He’s at a career best 20.7 K-BB% with five of his seven starts on the road and has completed six innings in all of them. Woo has one estimator above three and a half, a 4.17 dERA that has no idea what it’s talking about. We know the fastballs play up in this park and that’s been Woo’s specialty, but also pitches the Yankees hammer. Maybe a few more secondaries, as they are below average against sliders. Woo still matches up well against them because he’s so good.
DEF: 0
BSR: -5

Did you see all the runs scored in Seattle last night? Good. I hope everyone did because Woo may be my second best pitcher on the board tonight and I doubt people will want to roster a pitcher against the mighty Yankees. I still believe in the park, but Woo is probably the only active pitcher for the Mariners I’d roster in this spot. The problem with Fried is he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board.

Diamondbacks @ Giants

That Brandon Pfaadt found a way to navigate the LHBs in the Dodger lineup was impressive with 6.1 shutout innings. He struck out six, as he has in half of his eight starts, but he hasn’t struck out more than that in any start, resulting in a 15.9 K-BB% that’s his worst in his three seasons and just fine. His contact profile has become a bit problematic (9.3% Barrels/BBE, 47.1 HardHit%). While his increased usage of changeups and curveballs has helped against LHBs in general, it’s only lowered them to a .325 wOBA against him, while RHBs have increased to .330. The 82 LOB% has everyone believing Pfaadt has solved all his problems and his contact neutral estimators in the mid-threes may agree, but a 5.54 xERA suggests differently.
DEF: 8
BSR: 3

Robbie Ray has struck out 21 of his last 74 batters with just five walks and two barrels (4.2%), allowing three runs over 20 innings. He still has a 47.9 HardHit% over that span and 48.2% on the year, but he’s more than tripled his K-BB% from his first four starts. With a .234 BABIP and 84.8 LOB%, all of his estimators are more than two-thirds of a run above his 2.84 ERA. The slider still grades poorly (30 PB, 74 P+) and just 32 PB & 75 P+ over these last three starts. He does get the Diamondbacks in their lesser split in a great park, but they still have just a 16.7 K% vs LHP.
DEF: 0
BSR: 1

The lack of strikeouts in the Arizona lineup makes the risk/reward too much (or not enough?) for me with a high priced Robbie Ray. I don’t hate Pfaadt in this spot. There should be some strikeouts for him, but I think he’s more or less adequately priced within $400 of $9K.

Athletics @ Dodgers

It looks like we do have Jeffrey Springs confirmed here and you understand why the Athletics were hesitant. His 4.81 ERA is below all estimators except for two. A 4.75 Bot ERA that only grades the changeup (61) above average. And a 3.98 xERA with a 29.8 GB% and 32.3 HardHit%. Springs has already generated six infield flies, the second most of his career. That’s somewhat of a positive, but despite that changeup grade, RHBs have a .335 wOBA and .323 xwOBA against him since last year. Perhaps he neutralizes Ohtani and Freeman as much as any pitcher can, but he’s still likely to have some problems against this Dodger lineup with a 7.4 K-BB%.
DEF: -10
BSR: 5

Landon Knack is coming off his best start of the season, striking out five of 20 Marlins over five shutout innings in Miami. He’s only thrown 13.2 innings on the season and is still working off a smoking in Washington. I’m willing to concede something between his 17.8 K-BB% from last season and 8.2 K-BB% so far until we get more information. His career hard hit rate is now a concerning 44.5% though, while pitch modeling is a bit below average (4.25 Bot ERA, 96 Pitching+ - both actually a bit better than last year).
DEF: 3
BSR: 2

With the wind blowing out to right-center at around 12 mph and no extremely clear positive run environments on the board (unless Texas opens the roof again), I think we’re looking for bats here. The bottom half of the Dodger lineup may be some of the better values on the board (along with Will Smith) on a slate where you may need them in accordance with expensive pitching.