Monday 5/12 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Brewers @ Guardians

Two straight quality starts against teams from Chicago gives Freddy Peralta three on the year. His seven strikeouts against the Cubs (not White Sox) were his most since his first quality start, his second overall start of the year against the Royals. Peralta’s 18.2 K-BB% matches last year’s number with a bit less hard contact (35%), generating estimators ranging from a 2.95 xERA to a 4.39 dERA and a whole lot of room in between which his 2.18 ERA does not fall (.241 BABIP, 90.2 LOB%). You see Peralta near the top of the pitch matchup board below. The Guardians don’t hit anything he throws well, particularly the fastball.
DEF: -1
BSR: -2

Ben Lively has only struck out as many as five in a start once this season without a quality start, but a 3.46 ERA more than a run below all estimators with an 81.7 LOB%. It’s not like he’s helping himself by limiting hard contact either (45.6%). His pitch modeling is far worse than his actual pitch run values, which you can see from the last graphic below.
DEF: -1
BSR: 4

I’d be stunned if Lively stuck in this rotation the entire year.

Red Sox @ Tigers

Coming off his strongest start of the season and second highest velocity in Toronto, Tanner Houck went out and laid an egg in Texas last time out, despite just about holding the velocity. After LHBs torched Houck for a .366 wOBA in 2023, he found a way to neutralize them with a splitter last year (.264). This year, LHBs are up to a .445 wOBA against him. The PitchingBot grade has fallen from 53 to 42 on the pitch. Houck’s 4.10 Bot ERA is still his best estimator with just a 9.8 K-BB% and 48.1 HardHit%.
DEF: 7
BSR: 4

In the past we would write off poor starts at Coors, but not anymore. Especially after Jackson Jobe floundered in his previous start in Houston as well. Pitch modeling still likes him somewhat, despite the poor results, as seen on the board below. The potential remains, but he has to be able to start putting pitches where he wants them. With just a 4.1 K-BB%, little else even matters.
DEF: 4
BSR: 2

Jobe’s 3.86 Bot ERA is the lowest estimator either of these pitchers have and if you take out pitch modeling, it jumps up to his 4.23 xERA. These two pitchers just can’t put it together right now and both of these offenses are above average. Weather is projected to fine on Monday and I’m in favor of a F5 over (4.5 -114 FD).

You don't normally see boards where nearly every pitcher is lined up with their SwStr% so early in the season. 

Cardinals @ Phillies

Coming off seven innings of one run ball, Matthew Liberatore has allowed just seven runs (six earned) over his last 28.2 innings, as he continues his breakout season. With a 20 K-BB%, an increase in hard hit rate (44%) matters much less, especially as it comes with fewer barrels so far (6.9%). Liberatore’s worst estimator is a 3.86 Bot ERA with nothing else reaching above 3.25 (SIERA). As you can see below, Liberatore matches up well with a Philadelphia offense that does not like sliders (-0.93 wSL/C).
DEF: 11
BSR: -2

The only thing that’s off since Cristopher Sanchez returned from his forearm issue is the walk rate. Sanchez has walked six of 45 Nationals and Rays since returning. This has dropped his K-BB below 20% to 19.1% with an average hard hit rate, but just 3.1% Barrels/BBE, due to the extreme ground ball lean (59.4%). Sanchez has similar estimators to Liberatore, reaching only as high as a 3.52 FIP.
DEF: -8
BSR: 1

These pitchers have virtually the same great estimators and while the Phillies have the offensive advantage, there’s a massive gap in defense and you can see Sanchez several spots below Liberatore on the pitch matchup leaderboard below While Sanchez does match up well with the Cardinals on sinkers, there’s really the only pitch he does so with. I think this line is too high (F5) above +130 or so. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. 

Pirates @ Mets

It hasn’t really been smooth sailing for Paul Skenes in his sophomore season. Since striking out a season high nine Dodgers (and still no more than seven in any other start), Skenes has walked eight of his last 48 Cardinals and Cubs with a…wait for it…62.5 HardHit%. His contact management had been so good through the Dodgers start that he’s still maintaining a 37.7% rate with six barrels (4.6%), but his K-BB has now dipped to 18.4% (0.0% last two starts). He does match up decently with the Mets who have some problems with fastballs, but with Juan Soto finding his rhythm, this is not really an offense you want to struggle against right now.
DEF: 2
BSR: 1

David Peterson had walked one of his previous 92 batters going into an Arizona start where he walked four last time out and allowed a season high four runs, leaning on his four seamer (40.4%) far more than in any other start and that’s usually going to be a problem against Arizona, whether you’re a RH or LHP. That’s the negative. The positives are that Peterson is up to a respectable 13.8 K-BB% with a career high 57.5 GB%, resulting in fewer barrels (5.2%), despite more hard contact (51.7%). Normally, I’d be a bit concerned with that hard hit rate, but this is the Pirates in a pitcher friendly park where we’re expecting it to be around 60 degrees on Monday night. Peterson’s 3.52 ERA matches his 3.51 SIERA, but is well below his 4.46 xERA.
DEF: -5
BSR: -2

I’m wavering on going under Pittsburgh’s team total (3.5). They’ve been just awful. And while I’m at it, I think the time is long gone where managers can be scapegoated by organizations, who fail to build competitive rosters. Everyone knows it’s a front office problem, not something Derek Shelton or Bud Black failed to turn around. That rant out of the way, I’m not paying the top price on the board for Skenes, who I barely have rated a top five pitcher tonight, but do think Peterson’s a decent value for less than $9K because (again) the Pirates stink and there should be some strikeouts here for him. 

Nationals @ Braves

Jake Irvin did not get back on track after getting shelled by the Phillies, failing to strike out a single Guardian last time out and has now walked more than he’s struck out in two straight starts. In fact, 22 of his 33 strikeouts this season have come in a three start stretch against the Dodgers (of course), Pirates and Rockies. He’s down to a 9.7 K-BB% with a 45.9 HardHit% without a single estimator below four and a half, except for a 3.64 Bot ERA that is not in line with his 96 Pitching+. It’s all in the curveball, which does matchup well with the Braves, second worst against curveballs in the league (-1.4 wCU/C). LHBs are up to a .338 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Irvin since last year though.
DEF: -10
BSR: 0

Grant Holmes followed up his season best start against the Dodgers (what is it with guys on this slate dominating the Dodgers this season…and we’re not done) with 5.1 innings of four run ball against the Reds, allowing two home runs on as many barrels with a 47.1 HardHit%. The good news is that he’s walked just three of his last 46 batters, yet still matches his walk rate (12.3%) with his K-BB%. This is a problem with a worse than average contact rate (11.8% Barres/BBE, 42.2 HardHit%). Holmes is still a bit unfortunate to have two-thirds of his barrels turn into home runs. A 3.93 dERA is his only estimator below four with his 4.54 Bot ERA nearly matching his 4.58 ERA.
DEF: 10
BSR: -1

These pitchers had me buying in last season, I’m selling on both right now. LHBs are what we’re looking for against Irvin, while remembering that the Braves might not match up well with his curve. Holmes has a very slight reverse split since last year.

Marlins @ Cubs

Cal Quantrill is coming off his best start of the season, throwing five innings of one run ball, striking out six of 18…who else...Dodgers with just one walk. He still doesn’t have a quality start and the only other start where he allowed fewer than three runs was against the Braves. Quantrill’s season best Bot ERA against the Dodgers was 4.41 with a 105 Pitching+. That's the ceiling. Quantrill’s 7.9 K-BB% is higher than the last two seasons, but his 11.3% Barrels/BBE and 44.3 HardHit% are both career worsts. As you can see in the bottom graphic, he already has a terrible matchup against the Cubs, which gets worse with awful pitch modeling. All of his estimators exceed four and a half, while batters from either side of the plate above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -9
BSR: 4

Colin Rea is coming off his worst start of the season against the Giants, allowing a season high five runs (four earned). He’s allowed two home runs on four barrels (10.8%) over his last two starts, striking out just six of 47 with four walks. Rea’s only estimators above four on the season are his 4.55 Bot ERA and 4.42 dERA. He does have one of the top pitch matchup ratings on the board, but be careful. That’s largely because the Marlins are awful against cutters and splitters, the two pitches they’ve probably seen the least, while Rea doesn’t throw them a lot. I really don’t know what to make of Rea right now. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .330 against him since last year.
DEF: 7
BSR: -1

We’re expecting slightly pitcher friendly weather in Wrigley right now, neither enough to turn us onto Quantrill (unless you really want to punt an SP2) or scare us off of Cubs bats here. Rea is projecting as a decent value with this matchup for no more than $7K, I’d probably be taking some shots on him in multi-entry. There may be some value in the Miami lineup though, as Mervis is the only projected lefty below a 95 wRC+ vs RHP since last year.

Bullpens last 30 days below. The Twins have separated themselves from the league, but are off on Monday.

Rockies @ Rangers

Even in road starts, Chase Dollander has failed to showcase the skills that have made him a top prospect, though this will merely be his third. (Error - he actually has a 13.6 K-BB% in road starts, but with the roof open in Texas tonight, this park will play very hitter friendly,) While he’s throwing gas (97.6 mph), he’s missing bats at a below average rate (10 SwStr%) with poor command grades (46 PB, 90 Location+). His last two starts are his worst from a command standpoint (38, 32 PitchingBot), but that could be Coors playing with his stuff also. The key points are a 9.2 K-BB% with 16.5% Barrels/BBE, yet even his 6.55 FIP and 6.33 xERA are well below his 7.11 ERA (55.9 LOB%). Will he stick around long enough to see them regress this year? Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
DEF: -3
BSR: 0

At some point, a bunch of things are going to regress significantly on Tyler Mahle (.214 BABIP, 89.3 LOB% and just two home runs on seven barrels) and he’s now struck out just 11 of his last 91 batters (7.0 SwStr%) dropping him to a 10.2 K-BB% on the season, but he is managing contact exceptionally well (5.9% Barrels/BBE, 32.8 HardHit%). Can he keep it up? He does have a history of stifling hard contact, but even then, his 3.82 xERA joins all other non-FIP estimators more than two runs above his 1.48 ERA with the exception of a 3.27 Bot ERA, which is the best mark on the board today.
DEF: 4
BSR: 1

I have Mahle rated right along with Skenes near the back of the top five or six arms on the board in the best possible matchup, though a neutral park. The problem is that he’s expensive and more so on DraftKings with only marginal strikeout upside and that mostly comes from the Colorado side of the matchup. Dollander is a pitcher you have to continue to attack, especially with the Texas bats heating up, until he starts giving you reasons not to.

Royals @ Astros

Michael Wacha has posted his first three quality starts of the season in his last three outings, allowing runs only to the Orioles (three) during this span (Astros, White Sox). In a power suppressing park, his 2.98 ERA matches a 3.12 FIP with just two of nine barrels leaving the yard, but he’s still managing contact quite well (6.6% Barrels/BBE, 34.3 HardHit%) with remaining estimators ranging from a 3.74 xERA to a 4.38 SIERA. Think average pitcher, who’s a bit better than that at home. His best trick has always been the changeup (70 PB, 121 P+), driving him towards one the best matchups on the board with the Astros struggling with both changeups (0.85 wCH/C) and cutters (-1.76). I’m not sure what that means, as the Astros are entirely right-handed without Alvarez and can’t be facing that many lefties. To make matters more difficult, RHBs have a lower wOBA than LHBs against Wacha since last season, but a higher xwOBA, though it’s all between .284 and .319.
DEF: 9
BSR: -2

Ryan Gusto hasn’t started a game in May yet, walking two of the seven White Sox he faced without a strikeout in a relief appearance last week. A one trick pony (fastball 51.3%, 57 PB, 103 P+), his velocity seems to be falling on that one trick and was down nearly two mph in that relief outing. While that fastball would generally match up well with the Royals (-0.61 wFA/C), not much else stands out for him and I’m concerned what happens to an already 48.1 HardHit% should that fastball continue to decline.
DEF: 2
BSR: -5

Maybe not here, but I am concerned about Gusto, the more he’s exposed, especially if he can’t keep that high heat working like it was in the beginning. While this may not be the spot in which he fails, it’s not a high upside spot for him either The Royals have just an 18 K% vs RHP. I don’t know what to think of Wacha’s changeup against an all right-handed lineup and would probably just avoid this game altogether if I can help it.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Angels @ Padres

Yusei Kikuchi’s velocity climb continued last time out at a season high 95.5 mph, just 0.3 mph below last season’s average, as he posted an 11.0 SwStr% against the Blue Jays that was his highest since opening day against the White Sox (11.5%). Since walking four Twins without a strikeout in two innings, Kikuchi has thrown 11 innings with three runs, striking out 11 of 45 Tigers and Blue Jays with just two walks. This has finally pulled his K-BB into double digits (10.3%), which the barrel prone pitcher (13 already this season) will need. For now, I’d take his estimators (all above four except for a 3.51 Bot ERA and most around four and a half) with a grain of salt because he may be a better pitcher with improving stuff.
DEF: -10
BSR: 1

Michael King struck out two batters and walked two for the second time this season, both on the road in tough parks (Yankee Stadium, Sutter Health Park), but as you can see above, he has the top strikeout rate on the slate today (27%), along with some of the best Statcast numbers, including a 2.82 xERA that’s his only estimator within a run of his 2.22 ERA. Of course the .236 BABIP and 84.2 LOB% are impending regression, but this is still a great pitcher who is going to get paid this off-season.
DEF: -4
BSR: 0

Michael King is the top pitcher in a great spot with the only problem being that everybody probably knows it. Despite Kikuchi’s assent, I’m not challenging a fully healthy contact prone San Diego lineup. They may suffer against LHP, but still don’t strike out enough. You can still one off against Kikuchi too (depending on weather and wind), as he should remain barrel prone.

Yankees @ Mariners

Clarke Schmidt has ramped up his cutter usage to 42.1% (47 PB, 92 P+ are down from last year), while virtually doing away with his sinker (7%) to poorer results (10.2 K-BB%), though he did get a late jump and is coming off his best start of the season against the Padres in which the cutter received a 59 PB grade without being graded by Pitching+. Perhaps, he’s just beginning to feel comfortable and we shouldn’t hold estimators, mostly around four and a half, against him. Despite a double digit walk rate, he only walked one Padre.
DEF: 6
BSR: -1

I generally post home and away stats for Seattle pitchers, but Emmerson Hancock hasn’t even established himself at home, striking out four of 37 batters this year and posting a career 5.0 K-BB% at T-Mobile. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Estimators are better than his 5.70 ERA (.360 BABIP), but all still above four.
DEF: -3
BSR: -5

I think Schmidt may be worth a shot in this park. The Mariners are more dangerous than last year, but still have a 24.2 K% at home and Schmidt is less than $8K. Hopefully, he can build off his best start of the season. Hancock’s only attraction is a low price in a great park. I think Judge and the two LHBs at the top of the order are all fine here, but probably wouldn’t go much past that in this park.