Saturday 5/10 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Braves @ Pirates

After recording one sixth inning out through his first four starts, A.J. Smith-Shawver went eight shutout innings against the Reds, allowing a single hit with four walks and five strikeouts. The 11.4 BB% is a problem and it’s his first start with a single digit SwStr rate (6.4%), which does not mesh well with 12.2% Barrels/BBE and a 45.9 LOB%. In fact, his 3.00 ERA is buoyed by an 85.4 LOB% with estimators running has high as a 5.29 xERA, but AJSS is in a favorable spot today, as you can see both in Pittsburgh’s numbers above and the pitch matchup ratings below. Like his ERA and estimators, AJSS has pitch run values that don’t meet the pitch modeling.
DEF: 10
BSR: -2

Exactly four runs allowed in two straight and three of Andrew Heaney’s last five starts, but one run or less in the other four, the 3.18 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.56 dERA to a 4.04 SIERA that’s still better than most people would expect. A 13 K-BB%, career best 44.1 GB% and 37.2 HardHit% that’s his lowest since 2018 have led to improvement for Heaney and the Braves have done nothing against LHP this year.
DEF: 3
BSR: 3

This is far more about the deficiencies of the two offenses than the pitchers, but with two solid defenses and decent bullpens, seems a bit high. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for more.

Yankees @ Athletics

Carlos Rodon has allowed just three runs (two earned) over his last 25.2 innings and even with a 10.6 BB%, a 30.3 K% and just 6.3% Barrels/BBE merit a 2.84 xERA below his 2.96 actual ERA. Other estimators are higher, but only his FIP (3.60) more than half a run so with six of seven barrels leaving the yard. The Bot ERA is up to 4.12 too and he drops much closer to the middle of the board if pitch modeling is included in the pitch matchup ratings. The lack of barrels is a new thing for him, so we’ll see if it’s sustainable.
DEF: 7
BSR: 1

J.P. Sears has not allowed more than three runs in a start and not even that many in four straight. He’s not missing a lot of bats (19.9 K% with an 8.4 SwStr%), but not walking anyone (3.7%) with just 6.6% Barrels/BBE. His xERA (3.20) nearly supports actual results (2.93), even if additional estimators are much higher, though with only his xFIP (4.04) reaching four. The 79.7 LOB% is a bit high, but this is a nice start for him. I wouldn’t call it a breakout, but potentially a young pitcher confirming his presences in a major league rotation.
DEF: -7
BSR: -1

Now forget everything I’ve told you about both pitchers because it’s going to be 90 degrees in a park that plays like Coors with two offenses that hammer LHP and the worst defense in baseball. The Yankees stranded four runners in scoring position in the first two innings on Friday (in the first with no outs), but there will be runs scored in this park (o10 -102).

Brewers @ Rays

Just some short notes on an early strikeout prop here. Taj Bradley has struck out just nine of his last 101 batters (four starts) and has a strikeout prop of under 4.5 (+120) on DraftKings. The projected Milwaukee lineup vs RHP (Roster Resource) includes five batters no higher than an 18.5 K% against RHP since last season and just two above 21.1%. 

Bullpen stats last 30 days. 

Rangers @ Tigers

Jacob deGrom has allowed just four runs over his last 23.1 innings with a 23.3 K-BB%, but the 26.7 K% (24.2% on the year) is only a few points above average. With hard contact only on one third of batted balls, he’s probably still an All Star pitcher, but is having trouble with LHBs (.326 wOBA, .320 xwOBA since returning last season) and I’m surprised he hasn’t begun throwing more changeups against them. This is not an easy spot and only middle of the board by pitch matchup run values before factoring in deGrom’s elite pitch modeling on his fastball and slider.
DEF: 2
BSR: 3

Jack Flaherty has allowed 14 runs (13 earned) over his last 21.1 innings, but with a 21.7 K-BB% (21.5% season), .345 BABIP, 64.1 LOB% and two-thirds of barrels leaving the yard. While his 3.79 ERA matches his xERA perfectly (see the Statcast table), all other estimators are lower, except for a 4.89 Bot ERA that runs counter to actual run values and his 100 Pitching+.
DEF: 4
BSR: 0

I don’t know what PitchingBot is seeing here, but Flaherty seems to be pitching into some bad luck. I only have him around a quarter run worse than deGrom with the Tigers having a larger edge offensively and smaller edge in the bullpen and base running with defenses comparable. I don't agree with the Tigers being home dogs in this spot at all. 

Phillies @ Guardians

Another short note on a K prop. Tanner Bibee has a 5.6 SwStr% over his last five starts and has a K prop of under 4.5 (+125). Six batters in the projected Phillies lineup have a strikeout rate against RHP since last season no higher than 20.2%. 

Pitch matchup ratings are explained here. 

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

Dustin May has been shelled for 14 runs over his last 16 innings with six barrels (11.8%) and a 54.9 LOB%. The stuff just isn’t the same at reduced velocity with his sinkers coming in at 94 mph now instead of 96. He has a higher walk rate (10.1%) than swinging strike one (8.9%) with the worst pitch modeling of his career (4.29 Bot ERA, 94 Pitching+).
DEF: 0
BSR: 4

Corbin Burnes misses just one start with shoulder issues, but I believe the problems run deeper than that. He skirted disaster, walking five Mets, yet allowing a single run and only has a 3.58 ERA because four of his 17 runs have been unearned. Needless to say, his 7.9 K-BB% and 50.5 HardHit% are both career worsts, while his cutter sits down 1.5 mph with less movement and reduced grading (44 Pitching Bot and 99 Pitching+ for a formerly elite pitch).
DEF: 3
BSR: 2

Aside from these pitchers averaging estimators closer to four and a half than three and a half, check out the pitch matchup ratings below where both lie on the bottom half of the board with Burnes near the bottom. The Diamondbacks just can’t get a pitching signing right and while there were signs of decline in Burnes cutter last year, nobody predicted this. Add in two of the most potent offenses in a positive run environment (106 Park Run Factor from Statcast with the roof closed) and all of the injuries in the Arizona bullpen pushing them towards the bottom of the league and it’s a recipe for more than nine runs.