Friday 5/9 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rangers @ Tigers

Credit to Patrick Corbin for allowing six runs over his last 20.2 innings and while he won’t sustain that run’s 93 LOB%, his league average 12.5 K-BB% (which would be better than any of his season’s since the pandemic) and 29.2 HardHit% are far more than the Rangers could have ever asked for. The cutter (70 PitchingBot grade, 118 Pitching+ this year) may be a career saving pitch for him.
DEF: 2
BSR: 3

Four quality starts in Tarik Skubal’s last five efforts with a total of one run in those four. With his K-BB up to 26.9% and just a 32.1 HardHit%, Skubal could be on his way to a second straight Cy Young without an estimator above three and elite pitch modeling, as you can see near the bottom of the page.
DEF: 5
BSR: 0

I want to say this is the largest favorite I’ve ever sided with, but while Patrick Corbin is pitching well enough to stay in the league, Skubal is dominating it a full two runs better by estimators. You also have the Detroit offense blowing away the Texas unit with similar defensive numbers and a better bullpen and baserunning. It’s the five tool bet (Tigers -240 F5).

Braves @ Pirates

Bryce Elder has allowed just six runs over his last 17 innings with outings at Coors and against the Dodgers in that span and increased velocity (92.2 mph, avg 91.4 first three starts and 91.5 last year). The result has been seen less in a 7.2 K-BB% this season, but increase in ground balls (53.8%) and fewer barrels (just three last three starts). Where the improvement really shows is in pitch modeling. While a 4.54 Bot ERA and 98 Pitching+ are still worse than average, the slider (60 PB, 111 P+) is turning into a great pitch and one the Pirates (-1.21 wSL/C) struggle to hit (bottom five in the league).
DEF: 7
BSR: -3

Bailey Falter bounced back from being blasted by the Dodgers to throw seven one run innings at the Padres on two hits with six strikeouts. Falter’s velocity sat at a season high 92.7 mph. For sure, that strikeout chart below is disturbing with just a 5.3 SwStr% over his last four starts, but again, the Dodgers and Padres! (And also Nats, who don’t strike out a lot.) That’s not to suggest that Falter has been good, but 60% of his barrels have left the park, a rate worthy of regression in a park that kills right-handed power, which would make his remaining worst estimator a 4.42 Bot ERA. Not All Star stuff, but fine for the end of the rotation.
DEF: 6
BSR: 2

Why have I tried so hard to convince you that these two pitchers, off the main slate are at least competent? Because it’s going to be in the 50s here (and a lot of places) on Friday, giving us two strong defenses in pitcher friendly weather against a pair of teams that haven’t hit (go ahead and look at the numbers above). With Falter being a late confirmation, 8.5 for the full game is the only number we have and more than a bit too high even if I don’t expect the Braves to be this bad on the road or against LHP all season. We’re about a quarter of the way done and that’s what they’ve been.

Cardinals @ Nationals

Erick Fedde as a non-main daily fantasy board participant on a 15 game slate seems as good a spot as any to save some time. My apologies to his family.
DEF: 7
BSR: 2

Mitchell Parker has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) over his last nine innings with nine walks and one strikeout. PitcherList.com doesn’t believe he pitched as poorly as his results in the more recent of those two starts, getting squeezed a bit and a 26.7 HardHit% would support that even more. The Nationals have still given Parker a full week to think about what he did.
DEF: 7
BSR: -1

Brewers @ Rays

Jose Quintana can still be effective against poor to mediocre offenses if he consistently hits his spots, as he seemed to do in each of his first four starts with a single run or less, stranding 93.8% of his runners, until he ran into the Cubs (six runs and all three barrels leaving the yard last time out). To be honest, 3.90 (dERA) to 4.45 (Bot ERA) is a solid range for Quintana and his arsenal matchups up better than almost anybody on the board against a Tampa Bay offense that has been awful against LHP this year.
DEF: 0
BSR: 1

Since striking out seven of 22 Rockies in his first start of the season, Zach Littell has struck out 18 of 141 with a 7.8 SwStr%. With 13.8% Barrels/BBE and a 47.7 HardHit%, any value Littell still has is tied to his 4.9 BB% because his ERA is already above four and a half with a .225 BABIP. Batters from either side are between a .315 and .332 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -3
BSR: 2

Despite my light praise for Quintana’s skills, neither pitcher has very much value on this slate, as this is one of the better hitting environments on the slate. It’s just that neither of these teams is doing much, you know, hitting at this point in the season.

Cubs @ Mets

It’s unlikely Jameson Taillon is breaking out in his mid-30s, yet we have to acknowledge the run he’s been on since a poor first start in Arizona. In six starts since, Taillon has allowed 11 runs in 35.1 innings with a 16.1 K-BB% (better than any season in Chicago) and 35.4 HardHit% (would be his best mark since Pittsburgh). His 3.86 ERA is below, but within a quarter run of all estimators except a 4.82 dERA on the season. However, when we get into pitch modeling, Taillon does seem on top of his game with only a sinker he’s just about scrapped (5.2%) running below average grades. He is getting more than two more inches of iVB on his fastball (18.2) and some more sweep on the sweeper. With all of their injuries, the Cubs need him to keep doing this. No, not the .237 BABIP. That won’t happen, but just pitching well enough consistently.
DEF: 7
BSR: 1

I’ve been wavering on whether Clay Holmes can stick in or even thrive in the rotation since March and I’m still not entirely sure where he fits. We’ve seen fits of command issues on multiple pitches (he is throwing two new ones this year) and while he’s on a two start streak without a walk, the swings and misses have declined (season low 4.3 SwStr% last start). There’s good news in the contact profile however. Holmes is still keeping the ball on the ground (51.5%), which has limited barrels (3.9%). I don’t have high hopes for the strikeout rate persisting above average and this is a tough spot, but only his third home start in the comfy confines of Citi Field.
DEF: -4
BSR: 5

Temps in the 50s will make this a very pitcher friendly environment, perhaps most so on the board tonight. Still, these offenses are vicious enough that I’m still not immediately on either of these pitchers with moderate upside. I suppose I’d lean Taillon if I had to choose, but probably won’t have much daily fantasy interest in this game at all.

Phillies @ Guardians

Aaron Nola has been adding velocity (season highs 91.8 mph and then 92.3 mph last two starts) and dominating good offenses (one run in 13 innings, striking out 14 of 47 Cubs and Diamondbacks with just two walks). I had finally come to terms with the possibility that Nola was just a good, not great pitcher before he turned it around. Nola still has a 4.61 ERA (.327 BABIP) this season and has a 3.99 ERA that’s above his estimators over the last five years, while his 8.8% Barrels/BBE and 41.6 HardHit% would be career worsts. I can’t say he’s completely out of the woods, but dominating those two offenses is impressive. There’s some debate between PitchingBot’s 3.01 ERA, his second best mark since they’ve been in business, while his 109 Pitching+ would be a career low. LHBs do have a .318 wOBA and .329 xwOBA against Nola, which could be problematic in Cleveland.
DEF: 4
BSR: 0

I wish I had more time on a smaller slate to dig into Gavin Williams, now up to a 5.06 ERA and 5.00 FIP with an even worse 5.78 xERA. He sat at a season high 98 mph last start, a full mph above his season average with a 15 SwStr% (13.6% season), striking out nine Blue Jays, but failing to last five innings with five walks. He’s rocking the 13 BB% with 11.1% Barrels/BBE and a 43.3 HardHit%. Williams has one of the worst pitch matchup ratings on the board today (mostly because the Phillies hammer fastballs and curveballs), but may benefit a bit from his reverse split, though RHBs push up to a .380 wOBA and .357 xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -2
BSR: -1

To start with, this is also a pitcher friendly park with temperatures in the 50s making it an even more negative run environment. I think that makes Nola a decent value and potentially a great one for $8.3K on DraftKings. It’s a risk I’m willing to take with everything except the predominantly left-handed opposing lineup leaning in his favor. And Cleveland is no longer impossible to strike out either. They’ve added some high strikeout bats. The problem is that Williams is now incredibly cheap and with his reverse split and 25 K%, I’m not sure what to do.

Red Sox @ Royals

After pitching well against the Cardinals and White Sox, Hunter Dobbins struggled in start number three against the Twins (four runs, two strikeouts). The pitch modeling is average, but there are matchup problems on the slider and curveball (mostly his). I don’t have a great read on him yet and he pitched only marginally well in the upper levels of the minors. His actual wOBAs in the majors are brought down over 30 points by Statcast to a .301 xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate.
DEF: 5
BSR: -3

Michael Lorenzon has three quality starts of exactly six innings with a single run allowed, but even in those starts, he’s struck out a total of 14 with six walks, which means our best hope here is a low ceiling. Lorenzon has an ERA above four that’s below all his estimators with an 80.8 LOB%. Generally RHBs get the drop on Lorenzon (.351 wOBA, .352 xwOBA since last year), but this year batters from either side of the plate reach a .350 wOBA against him.
DEF: 5
BSR: 3

You may be thinking great matchup in a power suppressing park against a poor offense for Dobbins, but it’s a poor offense that doesn’t strike out a lot and despite the home run prevention, Kansas City is one of the more positive run environments in the league that should play normally with temperatures around 70. Lorenzon is almost cheap enough on DraftKings to give me pause against a projected Boston lineup (Roster Resource) that includes six batters with at least a 22.5 K% vs RHP since last season, but remember the low ceiling. I’m probably looking for a way to attack him with bats from either side of the plate in multi-entry.

Marlins @ White Sox

What the hell happened Max Meyer? A 28.1 K-BB% with just five barrels over his first five starts. Then five runs in Seattle, but no barrels and six more strikeouts, even if he walked four. Last time out, Meyer faced 25 A’s without a strikeout (4.9 SwStr%) and three home runs on five barrels. According to PitchersList again, the fastball has lost velocity and iVB, though Statcast on Fangraphs doesn’t stress that, among a mess of other incompetencies. The contact neutral estimators still look great, though the contact inclusive ones are getting scary, while he resides just smack middle of the board in the pitch matchup ratings against the White Sox.
DEF: -9
BSR: -1

All of Bryse Wilson’s estimators exceed five with a pitch matchup rating near the bottom of the board, which gets worse with the addition of pitch modeling. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .333 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -3
BSR: -2

Difficult questions here. Does a matchup against the White Sox in the cold entice you to trust Meyer on a large board without much in the way of true standout arms? I lean that way. On the other hand, do you want to roster Miami bats in these conditions? Mayyyyyybe?

Reds @ Astros

Two six inning single run outings in a row and perhaps Nick Martinez has found his rhythm? He’s cut down on sinkers and cutters with more sliders and curveballs the last few starts with pitch modeling giving the slider a perfect 80 PB mark and 138 Pitching+ in his last effort. It seems the right move. Still, Martinez’s 4.16 ERA is within one-tenth of a run of most estimators (3.63 FIP and 4.83 dERA being exceptions). With Alvarez on the IL, you also have to mention that Martinez has held RHBs to a .285 wOBA and .286 xwOBA since last year.
DEF: -1
BSR: -1

Hunter Brown has posted a quality start in EVERY start this season and struck out exactly nine three times in a row. In addition to the board’s top strikeout rate (31%), Brown adds the lowest hard hit rate (29.3%) and top pitch matchup rating with a 3.15 BOT ERA that’s higher than any of his other estimators.
DEF: 4
BSR: 2

Normally, I’d call Brown the easy top pitcher on this slate. He’s easily the most expensive and in a favorable spot. However, I think the conditions in Chicago and Cleveland give Nola and Meyer just as much upside (with more volatility) while Brown has just a neutral run environment in the dome. If you're looking for safety (as much as you can be in baseball), then Hunter Brown is your man, but I may rather gamble more on this slate.

And now, last 30 day bullpen stats....

Giants @ Twins

Down 1.4 mph from his first four starts over his last three, Jordan Hicks has actually increased his K-BB (14.9%) over this span with increased slider usage (> 40% last two starts) without sacrificing many ground balls (57.4%). In fact, he hasn’t allowed a barrel in three straight starts with a 36.2 HardHit%. His 9.1 SwStr% is the same as his season rate, but the walk rate has dropped. More sliders may be the way to go. Hicks is only averaging 5.1 innings per start. While LHBs have a .369 wOBA and .377 xwOBA against Hicks since last season, it’s not something he really has to worry about in the current iteration of the Minnesota lineup.
DEF: 2
BSR: 1

Chris Paddack has not exceeded five innings in a start this season without more than two strikeouts in half of them. A 5.5 K-BB% with 10.5% Barrels/BBE and a 43.8 HardHi% results in estimators ranging from a 4.99 xERA to a 5.50 FIP just below his 5.57 ERA (65.7 LOB%) with one exception. That is a 3.65 Bot ERA. Pitch modeling still LOVES his changeups (71 PB, 128 P+), even if the pitch has a negative run value (-0.8 wCH/C). Perhaps batters are just waiting for it at this point.
DEF: 2
BSR: 2

Near 80 with a light wind out to center makes Target Field one of the more hitter friendly environments on this slate. With batters from either side of the plate between a .325 and .356 wOBA and xwOBA against Paddack since last season, he becomes a target himself. Even with the park downgrade, I don’t mind Hicks here, provided he’ll continue to throw the slider at a 40% rate. He’s within $200 of $7.5K on either side, but just realize you’re not getting length out of either of these pitchers and Paddack has the best bullpen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days behind him.

Padres @ Rockies

Not only does Randy Vasquez own a -7.4 K-BB%, but he’s failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in all seven starts this year. On top of this, he’s allowed 9.2% Barrels/BBE. However, he’s luck sacked his way to only 10% of those barrels leaving the park. He doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator within two runs of his 3.90 ERA and LHBs have a .396 wOBA and .422 xwOBA since last year.
DEF: -3
BSR: 1

To start with, Antonio Senzatela has the worst pitch matchup rating on the board on Friday, although there are a couple worse when you add in pitch modeling. Senzatela throws a number of pitches, but none of them particularly well. He owns just a 10.6 K% on the season, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against him since returning from injury late last season.
DEF: 3
BSR: -2

First of all, bats, bats and more bats here. Second of all, how the hell is Randy Vasquez largely favored over ANYBODY with numbers like that? It’s not like the San Diego offense is blowing pitchers out of the water anymore either. Gimmie the Rockies (+150) for win number seven here! I mean, at least Senzatela has a 56.7 GB%.

Orioles @ Angels

Going into his start against the Yankees, Tomoyuki Sugano had struck out nine of the 113 batters he faced with a 7.0 SwStr%. Against the Yankees, he was a completely different pitcher, increasing his slider usage to 27.4% (has not reached 20% in any other start), while dropping his cutter usage to 3.2%. Sugano struck out eight of 22 Yankees over five shutout innings with a 15.8 SwStr%! Obviously, he continued upon this path in his next start against the Royals, except that (oh, no) he didn’t. The slider was used a season low 10.1% of the time with a season high 21.5% cutters (the slider is his only above average pitch grade on the season by the way). Sugano struck out four Royals with a 7.6 SwStr%. He and the Baltimore brain trust must believe it’s a better plan to rely on .242 BABIP and 91.2 LOB% sustaining than the swings and misses on the slider. Blegh! Statcast raises LHBs over 40 points and RHBs over 80 points against him.

DEF: -7
BSR: 0

The 3.2 K-BB% is a new career low for Kyle Hendricks, but he also has his lowest hard hit rate (29.8%) since 2017. That said, a 4.76 xERA is still his best estimator and also the furthest from his 5.28 ERA. PitchingBot seems to really like the curve (58) and change (60), though that hasn’t stopped LHBs from maintaining a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against him since last season.
DEF: -7
BSR: 1

Again, bats here, mostly Baltimore left-handed ones, but don’t be afraid to sneak in a few Angels too. I don’t know what the hell Sugano is thinking, but if he’s going to continue to think it, I’ll take a decent price on the home dogs here (+130).

The last two graphics compare a pitcher's arsenal to the opposing offense, as explained here.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

With a 14.9 BB% and no more than four strikeouts in any start, Roki Sasaki has just one quality start in seven tries. Add in the 9.1% Barrels/BBE and 43.2 HardHi% and estimators range from a 5.23 xFIP to a 5.59 Bot ERA. That’s a very tight range and there’s really no way you could argue that he’s pitching well. While RHBs lift up from a  .305 wOBA to a .339 xwOBA, LHBs go from a .335 wOBA to a .407 xwOBA. There’s just no level this is good on. Does he have immense potential? Sure. But we can’t be acting like he’s come anywhere close to it in a not so small sample anymore. His average pitch matchup rating drops to the bottom of the board when including pitch modeling.
DEF: 3
BSR: 4

Eduardo Rodriguez has struck out at least nine against the Nationals, Marlins and Phillies, but just 14 of 97 against everyone else. They are his only three starts with a double digit SwStr%. There is no discernable pattern to it, except they were three of his four starts below 20% changeups, though that’s his highest graded pitch with the worst run value. Regardless, Rodriguez’s .349 BABIP and 58.4 LOB% shouldn’t be sustainable, while seven of his eight barrels have left the yard with just a 34.5 HardHit%. A sinker, which ERod throws 10.7% of the time is his only pitch that currently has a positive run value.
DEF: 3
BSR: 3

I mentioned the Diamondbacks (+102 F5) being my first two unit attempt of the season last night and it’s now at a best price of -125. Job well done. Perhaps I should cash it out now with the way line value has treated me in terms of actual results the last few years. However, this is not born out of love for ERod’s performance, but out of shock that the market is still treating Sasaki like he’s in the running for Rookie of the Year when the truth is that he’s probably closer to a demotion if the Dodgers had enough healthy depth. The teams are comparable offensively (and I’d certainly be considering bats over arms here) and Arizona has a better defense. How were the Diamondbacks ever dogs here?

Blue Jays @ Mariners

Nine strikeouts and six innings of one-hit ball against the Guardians has Kevin Gausman up to a 16.4 K-BB% that’s nowhere near his 2020-2023 range (23.9%), but 2.4 points up on last year. The barrels remain a problem (13.6%) and a 41.7 HardHit% is his second worst mark with the lowest ground ball mark of his career (32%) by more than six points. On the flip side, his velocity is up a half mph from last season and the pitch modeling is elite (3.08 Bot ERA, 106 Pitching+). While this Seattle offense is no pushover anymore, this is still a strikeout park (23.7% at home) and they’ve struggled to hit fastballs (-0.23 wFA/C), which I’d imagine is more an issue at home (but I can’t figure out how to quickly check that), giving Gausman one of the better pitch matchup ratings on the board.
DEF: 0
BSR: 0

Luis Castillo is coming off his first quality start on the road, striking out just two Rangers. His K-BB% increases 10.5 points at home this season, but is still only a league average 13.7% in Seattle. The park, which contains 10.2% Barrels/BBE and a 44.9 HardHit%, and a 79.5 LOB% are responsible for a 3.29 ERA that’s well below non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.06 xERA to a 4.59 SIERA and xFIP. While LHBs have a .352 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against Castillo since last year and there’s really been no difference home or away.
DEF: -1
BSR: -3

The Mariners are a formidable offense since Martinez took over hitting coach duties. However, this park is undefeated and props up Gausman as a decent value on FanDuel ($8.6K), though I’m not sure I want to pay $9K for him on DraftKings today. That the Blue Jays only have a couple of even average LHBs helps Castillo, but their lack of strikeouts punishes any value he might have had.

Yankees @ Athletics

A 26 K% and 48.8 GB% are the main drivers of Will Warren’s 3.85 SIERA and 3.52 FIP, but I’m calling bullshit on contact neutral estimators, despite recognizing his talent to actually reach those numbers more realistically in the future. There reasons are because he has nearly matchup walk (11.5%) and barrel (11.1%) rates, exceeding his 9.1 SwStr% with a 54.3 HardHit%. This is better, but not perfectly illustrated in his 4.55 xERA. Warren, who holds a bottom of the board pitch matchup rating, sustains positive pitch model grading (3.47 Bot ERA, 103 Pitching+) best represented by the sldier (63 PB, 117 P+), despite the negative run value (-1.2 wSL/C). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Warren since last year. 
DEF: 6
BSR: 2

While Osvaldo Bido has only allowed more than two runs twice, he hasn’t completed six innings yet, giving him a 4.71 ERA that’s still below all of his estimators except for a 4.45 Bot ERA and he’s still second worst in today’s pitch matchup ratings. That’s due to the 13.1 K% that should increase with a 9.8 SwStr% that’s still below average though. Bido’s 10.6% Barrels/BBE on a 30.1 GB% won’t survive in this park. Bido has an 88 point reverse split by wOBA since last year, but Statcast turns that into a nine point normal split. Either way, this is not the spot for him.
DEF: -11
BSR: -2

With this park playing like Coors and temperatures potentially near 90 to start, you’re looking bats here and I’ve already mentioned playing over 5.5 (F5) in this spot with two top offenses and Oakland’s league worst defense.