Thursday 5/8 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Orioles @ Twins

Dean Kremer mocked his critics with seven innings of shutout ball against the Royals on just three hits last time out. His velocity was a mph down from his previous two starts, he struck out just two with a 7.3 SwStr% and still had a 54.5 HardHit%. With only eight fewer barrels (14) than strikeouts (22), you either attack or avoid Kemer.
DEF: -7
BSR: 1

Joe Ryan has hit new season high velocities in each of his last two starts (93.8 mph, 94.1 mph) after averaging 94 mph last year and the results have also mirrored last year, striking out 19 of his last 49 with a 21.1 SwStr%. Ryan has now dropped all of his estimators below three and a half. As you can see on the pitch matchup board, he has the top fastball matchup, but the may have some issues with his splitter against the Orioles. This may be a different version of Ryan than we saw for most of April though.
DEF: 3
BSR: 1

I thought I might have a Ryan play here, but I keep forgetting how far the O’s have fallen this season.

Rangers @ Red Sox

Jack Leiter struck out 10 of 36 batters in two starts before hitting the IL and just five of 39 batters with six walks since returning. His SwStr rate has gone from 14.5% before to 6.7% since. His Bot ERA has gone from 2.78 to 4.19. This is not ideal and not a great park for him right now.
DEF: 2
BSR: 3

Brayan Bello is coming off his best start of the season, striking out five of 25 Twins, pitching two outs into the seventh inning on 102 pitches. His velocity was down a mph from his first two starts and he reduced his usage on every other pitch to throw 42.2% sinkers. While he has the worst pitch modeling on the board through three starts, he seems to be willing to adapt to his opponent’s weaknesses and this may be another start in which he wishes to go sinker heavy, which Pitching+ sees as his best pitch (112). LHBs are within three points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Bello since last year.
DEF: 5
BSR: 1

It'd be real bummer if that short IL trip caused Jack Leiter to lose all his gains. His father had the same control/command issues and was a late bloomer, but eventually got there long after his prospect status faded.

White Sox @ Royals

Davis Martin has quality starts in three of his six attempts (every other start), but an ERA a run below estimators because four of his 19 runs are unearned. All four runs came in those quality starts, two each in starts where he allowed no earned against the Angels and Twins. With a 16.6 K% and 49.6 HardHit%, Martin’s xERA (5.89) is well more than two runs above his actual ERA (3.52), though parts of his arsenal actually match up decently against the struggling Royals. A balanced lineup should have some success against him however, with batters from either side of the plate above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.
DEF: -3
BSR: -3

While his strikeout rate has dropped from 32.7% in his first two starts to 21.8% in his next three and then 16.7% over his last two, Kris Bubic had his first single digit SwStr% in his last start (6.9% against a Baltimore lineup he previously had a 15.2% game against). Bubic is still sitting on a 16 K-BB% without an estimator reaching four and sits firmly above the pitch matchup rater in terms of run value simply because he’s facing the White Sox. He drops nearly to the middle of the pack if you add in moderate pitch modeling, where PitchingBot appears to like his stuff more than Pitching+.
DEF: 5
BSR: 0

The Royals scored just two runs and won on Wednesday, as the White Sox just had the tying run on second  with none out in the ninth, but couldn’t get him through. We expected the White Sox to have one of the worst offenses in the league. Few expected the Royals to be this bad. I have mentioned how little they’ve done to assist Witt over the offseason, but who knew it would be this bad?

Tigers @ Rockies (G1)

Since striking out 12 of his first 44 batters, opening some eyes, Casey Mize has struck out just 15 of his last 102, but it’s not all bad news because he’s been able to turn that into a double digit K-BB% with just three walks. Combine that with half his contact on the ground and you have a pretty useful pitcher, just not a daily fantasy star. Further positives include at least seven innings in two of his last three starts and a season high 95 pitches last time out. It’s time for the Tigers to take the leash off. Let’s see if he can be a workhorse. The .240 BABIP and 91.8 LOB% are unsustainable, but his 2.91 xERA isn’t much higher than his 2.70 ERA. A 3.82 Bot ERA is Mize’s only other estimator below four without any reaching four and a half. Mize rates one of the better pitch matchups on the board, perhaps because of the sinker and slider, both pitches the Rockies are near the bottom of the league against.
DEF: 0
BSR: 1

Since shutting out the Rays on two hits over six innings, striking out a season high seven without a walk on Opening Day, Kyle Freeland has allowed at least three runs in every subsequent start (25 in 30.1 innings, 23 earned). The .382 BABIP and 56.5 LOB% are ridiculous, while a 10.6 K-BB% with 51.8% of his contact on the ground and only 7.1% Barrels/BBE projects estimators below four over that span. In fact, a 4.17 xERA is Freeland’s only estimator exceeding four on the season. He seems to have pitched into some poor luck, though he doesn’t have a single pitch match up well with the Tigers, when you include pitch modeling.
DEF: 2
BSR: 3

8Maybe Mize can be a guy who goes seven innings on a low pitch count with few walks and a lot of ground balls. It may not match his former prospect hype, but it’s salvaging something.

Tigers @ Rockies (G2)

Keiter Montero struck out eight Brewers in his first start with three home runs. He’s allowed fewer runs in two additional starts, but striking out just five of 40 batters. He has below average pitch modeling and estimators, including projections around or above four and a half. He’s the classic game two of a double header starter.
DEF: 4
BSR: 1

Tanner Gordon is called up to make his first start of the season after posting a reasonable 12.5 K-BB% in 34.1 innings last year. He’s just slightly above that (13.1%) In 28 AAA innings this year with a 47.9 HardHit%. Projections are around five.
DEF: 3
BSR: 3

Straight double headers are so tough because you can’t even map out a lineup with any confidence and have little time to pivot between games. This game does not yet have a market as the Tigers have not confirmed Montero, but I have both games projected similarly, in line with the market for game one.

Bullpen stats last 30 days below. 

Phillies @ Rays

If you keep waiting for that big Jesus Luzardo blowup start, you’re still waiting seven starts in. His only home runs was allowed in his first start (though he’s due some regression there with six more barrels) and he’s only even allowed three runs once. He’s getting it done with a 21.2 K-BB% that essentially ties a career best with a 3.21 PitchingBot and 113 Pitching+ that are easily career best marks. And that Bot ERA is higher than any of his other estimators. His pitch matchup with the Rays, who have been awful against LHBs is already top third of the board, but shoots into the top three when including pitch modeling.
DEF: -4
BSR: 1

Ryan Pepiot struck out just one of 20 Yankees last time out (3.4 SwStr%) and three of 20 Padres before that. However, in both starts, the Rays have pulled him before 90 pitches, not allowing him to blow up and he had some BABIP help against San Diego (.200). With 10.3% Barrels/BBE and a 41.9 HardHit%, Pepiot needs those swings and misses and for that 12.0 SwStr% to result in more than a 21 K% in that park. An insane 80% of his barrels have left the park at home. However, all non-FIP estimators are also above four and within half a run of his 4.23 ERA. By pure run value, he has the worst pitch matchup on the board, but adding in great pitch modeling (2.86 Bot ERA, 109 Pitching+) pushes him inside the top five. There’s a disconnect between his pitch grading and actual results, but a good portion of that is also the Phillies hitting just about everything he throws (except sliders) well.
DEF: -3
BSR: -1

If you’re playing the four game slate, Luzardo is essentially tied for my top spot, but a better value on FanDuel, where he’s actually $1.2K more expensive. Pepiot is probably one of the guys you’re looking to attack on this slate. It’s just too power friendly a spot for a barrel prone pitcher.

Reds @ Braves

Fifteen of Nick Lodolo’s 32 strikeouts this season came in just two of his seven starts and one of them was against the Rockies. A mph drop in velocity and more sinkers has dropped his strikeout rate nearly seven points from last season and not generating any more ground balls (45.3% this year, 45.4% career) or better contact (39.2 HardHit% this year, 38.4% career), but maybe it’s part of the reason for his career best 4.0 BB%. However, it’s not a justification for a  .248 BABIP that’s more than 50 points below his career rate. He doesn’t have an estimator within half a run of his 3.27 ERA, though with them only reaching a 4.28 xFIP, that doesn’t mean he’s been bad. Lodolo’s pitch modeling and matchup ratings are fairly mediocre as well.
DEF: -1
BSR: 2

After getting smoked by the Dodgers in his last start, Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed 19 runs (17 earned) in his last 21.1 innings with just an 18 K%, but also a 12.9 SwStr% and 4.0 BB%. The problem is mainly in the contact profile (10.4% Barrels/BBE, 50.6 HardHit%), after allowing just a single barrel and 35.4 HardHit% over his first three starts. The crazy part is that his 2.84 Bot ERA has actually improved over this span, while his 116 Pitching+ has stayed the same. It makes little sense, but in their small sample, the Reds have been the worst offense in the league against splitters. Small samples on pitches teams seldom face (mostly meaning splitters) can skew the pitch matchup ratings though.
DEF: 7
BSR: 2

It pitch modeling is right and the actual results are just some bad luck, then Spencer Schwellenbach is cheap enough to potentially be the top value on the board. This version of Lodolo is the most boring version and not any better, but not particularly bad.

Blue Jays @ Angels

Just when Chris Bassitt had begun convincing me of a rebound, he’s allowed 11 runs over his last 16.1 innings with a 16.2 K% and 7.7 SwStr%. He throws so many pitches that you can’t tell which ones are the problem immediately, but LHBs are now up to a .342 wOBA against him this year and are still above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. If we take the season on a whole, Bassitt still only has one estimator (3.65 dERA) more than half a run above his 2.95 ERA with a 21.3 K-BB% and 6.1% Barrels/BBE. He’s also faced the Yankees and an almost entirely left-handed Cleveland lineup over these last three starts (though the other one was against the nearly entirely right-handed Astros). Bassitt’s arsenal is so big that Pitching Bot (3.45 ERA) and Pitching+ (101) can’t even agree on it. On a positive note, the Angels don’t have many left-handed batters and really no quality ones. Without Trout, they have few quality bats overall.
DEF: 0
BSR: 0

Six shutout innings for Jose Soriano against a much improved Detroit lineup last time out. He only struck out five of 23 (and no more than five in six of seven starts and five straight), but has the ground ball rate up to 63.9% now. Even with a 46.3 HardHit%, there’s a good chance many will be at somebody and any runners on base have a decent chance of being doubled up. His 8.9 K-BB% doesn’t leave a lot of upside though and there are going to be times where he’s BABIP’d and sequenced. He already has a .322 BABIP, though his 3.83 ERA is within half a run of all estimators with only his xERA (4.02) reaching above four. While Soriano doesn’t have one of the better pitch matchups on the board, the sinker should work well to keep the ball on the ground here.
DEF: -7
BSR: -3

The Blue Jays don’t strike out, but may pound 20 batted balls into the ground. I’ve decided to go with the under because neither team reaches a 90 wRC+ Hm/Rd or v RHP and Soriano’s xERA is the only estimator from either pitcher reaching four. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. Because of the matchup, Bassitt may be one of the top pitchers/values on the board tonight. There should be enough strikeouts for him in this lineup. You really can’t do much with the other side of it though. Even on a four game slate.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

Yoshi Yama bounced back from his worst start of the season against the Pirates (it happens to humans) with six one hit innings of shutout baseball in Atlanta, striking out six of 21 Braves on a season high 18.7 SwStr% It was his fourth quality start without an earned run in five starts, while three of his seven runs allowed this season have been unearned. That, a .247 BABIP and 87.7 LOB% are why his 0.90 ERA is more than a run and a third below all estimators, but he still doesn’t have an estimator reaching three, unless you count a 3.44 Bot ERA and I’m not going to fault him for that. The results of his pitch matchup ratings are more about him being so strong rather than the Diamondbacks being weak. They’ve only been below average against splitters and we’ve already discussed how teams see so few that this particular pitch can skew things.
DEF: 0
BSR: 4

With four quality starts on the season, Brandon Pfaadt still has his blowup games, mostly against offenses with good LHBs, like the Phillies last time out (seven runs, 66.7 HardHit%). His velocity in that game was actually a season high 94.3 mph, a full mph above his season average. With a 16.6 K-BB%, you might not realize that Pfaadt’s strikeout rate is down to 20.7%, which makes the 45.5 HardHit% more of a problem. He did add more curves and changes to combat LHBs. They’re graded above 55 by PitchingBot, but right around 90 by Pitching+. The results have been that batters from both sides of the plate are within six points of a .340 wOBA against him this year though. However, LHBs also had a .348 wOBA against him last year and have six of his seven home runs surrendered this season. Pfaadt’s poor pitch matchup ratings are because, despite all of his pitches being above average via PitchingBot, they have marginal run values at best (except the sinker) and the Dodgers basically demolish everything.
DEF: 3
BSR: 2

Yamamoto is the most expensive pitcher on the board in a low upside matchup, which means I’m probably considering Luzardo, Bassitt and Schwellenbach ahead of him in GPPs. I think you’re looking at left-handed Dodgers here too, which is another reason to shy away from Yamamoto’s price tag.

You can get a deeper explanation of these last two graphics (pitch matchup ratings) here.