Wednesday 5/7 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Guardians @ Nationals

With a 5.0 K-BB% and 11.9% Barrels/BBE, I have no idea why Logan Allen is still in a contending rotation. RHBs are within two points of a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. His pitch modeling is pretty terrible this season, as you can see below.
DEF: -2
BSR: 1

No confirmed starter for Washington. No line on this game yet. It may be Mike Soroka’s return from the IL. He projects somewhere in the mid-fours with LHBs owning a .338 wOBA and .346 xwOBA against him since last year, a problem against Cleveland.

DEF: -6
BSR: 0

Astros @ Brewers

Framber Valdez has four outings of two runs or less in at least six innings, but has allowed at least four in the other three in no more than five innings. After sitting around 94.5 mph in each of his first five starts, he was down to 93.5 two starts back and then 91.6 mph in Chicago (AL). Hopefully, it was a cold weather thing. A 53.3 HardHit% against the White Sox is never ideal.
DEF: 4
BSR: 2

Quinn Priester’s 4.02 dERA is his lowest estimator by nearly a full run (4.99 xERA) and only a guy who has only made a few starts and another who is just being used as a place holder have worse pitch modeling today. However, RHBs have just a .286 wOBA and .278 xwOBA against him since last year and the Astros have no LHBs left.

DEF: 0
BSR: -1

I’d be considering an under here if Valdez didn’t have such a poor outing in Chicago with a velocity drop last time out.

Pirates @ Cardinals

Despite a 4.38 ERA, Mitch Keller has four quality starts in seven tries, but I guess that what a quality start is. With just three of his nine barrels leaving the park, his 3.81 FIP is Keller’s only estimator really below his ERA with a 4.37 xFIP that matches it and an xERA above five (5.15). With marginal pitch grading, he doesn’t really match up well with the Cardinals and it’s mostly in his least thrown pitches, which should be adjustable, as much as you can with just a 9.9 K-BB%.
DEF: 6
BSR: 1

Sonny Gray is coming off his worst start of the season against the Mets, tying a season high with three barrels (10% for the year). He threw a season low 11.9% sinkers in that start and a season high 14.6% changeups. With an 18 K-BB%, Gray’s contact neutral estimators are all half a run below his 4.12 ERA, which is more than half a run below his contact inclusive estimators. His strong pitch matchup rating is likely because the Pirates don’t hit anything.

DEF: 9
BSR: -2

If I had to pick something from this game it would be the Cardinals to go over four and a half runs at plus money. If I HAD to.

Giants @ Cubs

Seven innings in each of Robbie Ray’s last two starts, with 16 strikeouts and just three walks without a home run. Is he back? Or was it just about pitching in San Francisco against poor offenses? Colorado had a 71.4 HardHit% against him last time out without scoring a run. Ray’s pitch modeling on his slider is terrible (29 PB, 70 P+), making this a poor matchup, as you can see below. I don’t believe he’s fixed.
DEF: 2
BSR: 6

Ben Brown has two quality starts this year and both include no runs or walks and both came a start after he allowed five runs. He’s struck out between four and six in every outing. You probably can’t get away with two pitches when the only you thrown the most grades so poorly (46 PB, 83 P+).

DEF: 7
BSR: 2

Another cold and windy day at Wrigley.

Mariners @ Athletics

In three straight road starts Bryan Woo has posted a 23.3 K-BB% with just 6.1% Barrels/BBE and five runs over 19.1 innings, dispelling the notion that he can’t pitch on the road. His fastball grade has dropped in these games (55 PB, 97 P+), while the sinker has remained elite (69, 130), though he really hasn’t altered usage. While Woo’s 2.58 ERA matches his 2.64 xERA, contact neutral estimators are in the low threes with only a 3.95 dERA above three and a half.
DEF: -1
BSR: 2

The son of former WWF champions Hulk Hogan and Bob Backlund, Gunnar Hoglund struck out seven of 22 Marlins over six one run inning in his major league debut and now we’ll start to find out if he’s for real. The Seattle offense has been a juggernaut a month into the season, while Hoglund still has projections mostly north of four and a half, despite a 20 K-BB% at AAA this year. Everything he threw in Miami graded tremendously well too.

DEF: -11
BSR: 0

If I believe Statcast’s 125 Park Run Factor for Sutter Health Park is sustainable, then I have this game projected for around 12 runs. I’m just not sure it is and am still shy on totals in this park.

Mets @ Diamondbacks

Kodai Senga lasted only four innings against the Diamondbacks, allowing just a single run and striking out six of 19 batters, but also walking three with a 60% hard hit rate and enjoying an IV before the game. I suppose we could blame the illness for the near mile per hour drop in velocity, but even Senga has admitted that his stuff isn’t as sharp as in his rookie season (2023), resulting in a 3.4 point drop in K-BB% to 14.6%. His strikeout rate has dropped from 29.1% to 23.8% despite no change in SwStr rate (12.6%) and little change in CSW (26.3%).
DEF: -2
BSR: -4

earned) over 28.2 innings with a 17.8 K-BB% and 5.2% Barrels/BBE, but a 46.8 HardHit%. His .187 BABIP over that span is certainly not sustainable and he was down to his lowest velocity of the season last time out (91 mph) after being above 92 mph in his previous two starts.

DEF: 3
BSR: 1

Roof has already been confirmed closed, which latest Statcast Three Year Park Factors say is a 104 Run Factor.

Dodgers @ Marlins

The Dodgers still haven’t named a starter, but Roster Resource has Landon Knack, who has struck out just seven of the 41 batters he’s faced with six walks and a 46.4 HardHit% after posting a 17.8 K-BB% and 43.9 HardHit% at the major league level last year. The Marlins actually match up well with his below average fastball this year. Still a very small sample though.
DEF: 1
BSR: -2

Valente Bellozzo is a much better name than a pitcher. A 4.70 xERA is his only estimator below five through three starts.

DEF: -10
BSR: 3

Teoscar Hernandez is out and Dave Roberts mentioned a potential day off for Freeman here, so there’s that in Miami’s favor.

Rangers @ Red Sox

As much as pitch modeling loves Tyler Mahle’s splitter (64 PB, 117 P+), he’s not sustaining a .230 BABIP or 86.5 LOB% or 0.0 HR/FB. In fairness to Mahle, he has only allowed five barrels with a 31% hard hit rate, but the 12.3 K-BB% is league average territory. A 3.44 xERA sounds reasonable. A 1.19 ERA does not. His placement near the top of the pitch matchup rater is almost entirely based on his own run values, as the Red Sox are actually pretty strong against everything he throws, except the cutter.
DEF: 2
BSR: 3

Great news for the Red Sox! Tanner Houck was above 96 mph for the second start this year, which is nearly a full mph above his third highest average game velocity this season (95.3). In the first start he sat above 96 mph, the Rays hung two touchdowns on him. Last time out, he threw seven innings of one run ball in Toronto, striking out six with an 11.6 SwStr% that’s his second highest of the season. His contact neutral estimators with an 11.4 K-BB% and 50% ground ball rate are right around four, but the 47.4 HardHit% pushes his xERA more than  half a run higher.

DEF: 5
BSR: 0

Getting Tanner Houck back in rhythm would be a big deal for this Boston team.

Phillies @ Rays

After an injury scare, Cristopher Sanchez returned to work sitting right at his season sinker velocity (95.7 mph), allowing just two runs to the Nationals over five innings, striking out six without allowing a barrel. With a 20.7 K-BB%, 54.9 GB% and 4.7% Barrels/BBE, Sanchez has turned himself into one of the most unheralded pitchers in the National League. In addition to great pitch modeling, his sinker matches up great with the Rays, the worst offense in the league against said pitches (-1.91 wSI/C).
DEF: -4
BSR: 1

After three starts (32.4 K-BB% and 32.5 HardHit%) against the Pirates, Angels and Red Sox), Shane Baz was looking like the Ace of this staff. Then, he had to face the Yankees, Padres and Royals (2.8 K-BB%, 49 HardHit% - and that’s despite a 20 K-BB% against the Padres). His velocity has dropped nearly a mph in these three starts and his pitch modeling has cratered, going from a 3.28 Bot ERA and 121 Stuff+ in his first three starts to 4.90 and 96. Potentially a positive for Baz is his reverse split since returning from injury last year.

DEF: -3
BSR: -1

We start our daily fantasy journey here (at least on DraftKings, FanDuel is not up yet). Though not as extreme as Sacramento, this park is still playing hitter friendly. Think Fenway. The surprise may be that it’s played much more power friendly for RHBs, while matching the Yankee Stadium dimensions. Ground balls don’t leave the park and Sanchez is my clear number two on this slate and easily the top value for just $7.5K on DraftKings. I had to double check that was legit. I’ll be honest, I don’t really know what to do with Baz here. I mean, I’m certainly not using him in this spot at a high price, but the reverse split makes it tough. Do we want to attack in a this power friendly environment?

And now...a little bullpen action.

Padres @ Yankees

Dylan Cease’s only six inning outing came in his second start of the season at home against Cleveland. Hell, he’s failed to complete five innings in more than half his starts. His 15.6 K-BB% is his worst since the pandemic, while his 33.3 GB% ties a career low and 11.1% Barrels/BBE is easily a career high. The pitch modeling is still strong, as you can see below, but below last year, while the Yankees smash fastballs (0.7 wFA/C is top five). All of that said, non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.85 SIERA to a 4.41 dERA are all still well below his 5.61 ERA (.375 BABIP, 63 LOB%) and I used non-FIP because he’s somehow run into these results with just three of his 11 barrels leaving the yard.
DEF: -6
BSR: -1

The strikeouts will be hit or miss, but Max Fried has thrown at least six innings in five straight starts and only even allowed earned runs in one with a total of two over 34.1 innings in that span. He’s going to keep the ball on the ground (52%) and manage hard contact well (34%), while the 15.5 K-BB% is very respectable. Sure, the .232 BABIP, 83.3 LOB% and 4.5 HR/FB will all regress, but Fried’s worst estimator is a 3.72 xFIP.

DEF: 8
BSR: 0

Max Fried is the second  highest priced pitcher on either site and probably doesn’t have the upside for this spot against the Padres, who are getting back their low strikeout bats bit by bit. If you still believe Dylan has some Cease left  in him, he’s worth a shot in GPPs for $8.5K or less, more so on DraftKings because he’s unlikely to hit six innings, but we probably want some New York offensive exposure here as well, while also noting that the Padres have had one of the best bullpens in the league so far.

Reds @ Braves

I don’t think I need to go long and deep on this, but if Hunter Greene keeps this up, he may be your National League Cy Young winner. He’s increased his K-BB (28.5%) by more than 10 points, which certainly makes up for the increase in barrels (11 after only 19 last year) and hard hit rate (32% to 43%). His 2.53 ERA matches his SIERA (2.61) and xERA (2.58) and he’s near the top of the pitch matchup rater despite a tough matchup because both his run values and pitch modeling are so good (71 PB, 125 P+ on his fastball is best on the board for both systems).
DEF: 0
BSR: 2

Grant Holmes entered his last start with a concerning 14.5 BB% and 22.2 K% that was down 2.6 points from last season. He found a get right spot with nine strikeouts and just two walks and 58.3% of his contact on the ground against the lowly Dodgers. He basically ditched the curve (19.4% prior and just 7.4% against the Dodgers) in favor of more cutters (21.3%). The cutter (43 PB, 100 P+) certainly grades better than the curve (38, 81). Maybe this is the start of something new with a 104 Pitching+ his second best mark of the season, but a 4.31 Bot ERA not much of an improvement. The 11.8% Barrels/BBE are a problem, but eight of 10 have come in just three starts (ARI, TOR, LAD).

DEF: 7
BSR: 2

Not a great spot, but nearly any park is an upgrade for Hunter Greene and the most expensive arm is my top arm on Wednesday night and even a strong value. I think he’s that good now. I don’t fear this spot and really, once you go past Sanchez, in a tougher park, it’s really a long drop. You could certainly roster both on DraftKings. The swap off the curveball actually came two starts back for Holmes, but he just threw more fastballs in the first one. The increase in cutters only came against the Dodgers. I think you can take a shot with him at a decent price against a marginal offense here. I’m not really interested at all in bats.

Orioles @ Twins

Simeon Woods-Richardson has walked 11 batters this season, nine of them coming in to starts, five last time out in Cleveland. His 23.6 K% is exactly a three point improvement to last year, but with the same 24.8 CSW% as last year (called + swinging) and his pitch modeling has declined significantly (5.01 Bot ERA, 89 Pitching+), which certainly shows when you get into the disastrous contact profile (17.9% Barrels/BBE, 48.8 HardHit%). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .305 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against SWR since last year.

DEF: 2
BSR: 1

Bats here. Definitely bats! I don’t care if Morton’s the cheapest pitcher on DraftKings now. In fact, I’m going over 9 (-120), despite Minnesota’s elite pen. That’s countered by Baltimore’s poor defense and pen. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

And now, the pitch matchup breakdown, as mentioned here. 

White Sox @ Royals

Two straight starts for Jonathan Cannon, who, despite an 8.8 K-BB% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE, has estimators ranging from a 3.87 xERA to a 4.82 xFIP with positive pitch modeling (3.87 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+). The slider (14.1%) is the pitch that pushes up the profile (63 PB, 119 P+). He’s allowed five barrels, but just a 34.8 HardHit% in those two QS. Yet, batters from either side of the plate are still between a .312 and .341 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: -8
BSR: -3

Michael Wacha is also coming off his first two quality starts of the season and Houston is an offense both pitchers have in common over this stretch. With a 10 K-BB%, Wacha compares similarly to Cannon, but with the better contact profile (6.8% Barrels/BBE, 33.3 HardHit%), yet still generating estimators ranging from a 3.84 xERA to a 4.48 SIERA, similar to Cannon again. I left out the FIP because just two of Wacha’s eight barrels have left the park and both pitchers will enjoy the power suppression in Kansas City tonight. It’s not in the ground ball rate either because both pitchers are also at 39%. Wacha also has similar pitch modeling (3.78 Bot ERA, 99 Pitching+) with batters from either side between a .290 and .318 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. As one would guess, the power of the changeup (71 PB, 123 P+), which is actually a decline from last year, is driving the pitch matchup advantage. It’s even the one pitch the White Sox actually hit well (0.74 wCH/C is top 10 in the league).

DEF: 5
BSR: 0

I’ve already mentioned that pitcher and offensive comparisons have pushed me towards the large dog here. However, I still believe Wacha to be the better pitcher and with the higher strikeout upside (CWS 23.1% vs RHP, projected lineup averages 22%). Wacha would actually be my number three overall tonight and a solid value, except for the grim weather forecast. There are not enough strikeouts in the projected Kansas City lineup (only one above 20.1% vs RHP since last year) for Cannon. 

Tigers @ Rockies

Jackson Jobe’s 3.24 ERA is backed by a .224 BABIP and 79.1 LOB%. With just a 3.9 K-BB% and 40% hard hit rate, he’s not going to be able to sustain it. A 3.60 xERA isn’t much higher, but is also the only estimator he has below four and a half, unless you count some favorable pitch modeling (3.75 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+). I don’t know how PB calculates that ERA, but without a pitch graded better than 51 and the slider he throws 33.2% of the time at 33, I don’t understand how that happens. This is the reason you see his pitch modeling having a negative effect on the pitch matchup rater below, despite the quality overall gradings.
DEF: 6
BSR: 1

Since allowing eight home runs in his first three starts, Chase Dollander hasn’t allowed one in either of his last two, though he’s still allowed multiple barrels with a hard hit rate of at least 40% in each start this year. He’s also  struck out just seven of his last 44 batters with five walks. The only thing that’s really changed is that his barrels stopped leaving the park at an 80% rate. There are some problems here and batters from either side of the plate exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him. These problems are generally magnified at Coors and this Detroit offense is much improved.

DEF: 4
BSR: 2

Now that I’ve buried both pitchers, which one did I tease might be usable here? Okay, you already know the answer, but it’s not because of Jobe’s latent upside. It’s because the weather already takes most the sting out of this park (52 degrees, 5 mph wind in from left), while the Rockies (74 wRC+ Hm/63 v RHP/37 L7 days) couldn’t even get to league average if the park were at normal playability. Embrace Coors for opposing pitchers. There are a ton of strikeouts here. A cheap Jobe has some value.

Blue Jays @ Angels

Jose Berrios has allowed just 12 runs over his last 35.2 innings, sure with an 80.9 LOB% and just three of his nine barrels leaving the yard, but it’s not nearly as easy as that. In three of those starts, he’s exceeded a 20 K-BB%, but in two he’s walked more than he’s struck out. I struggle to see a reason for the volatility, but despite estimators ranging from a 4.01 xFIP to a 4.43 xERA (10.9% Barrels/BBE), he’s likely to be much better or worse than that in any given start.
DEF: 4
BSR: 0

With his velocity up to a season high 94.9 mph (still 0.6 mph below last year’s average), Yusei Kikuchi held the Tigers to just two runs through five innings, his third start in four with two runs or fewer allowed. However, he walked four in his previous two and allowed three barrels with a 53.3 HardHit% against the Tigers. Kikuch did post his best K-BB% against any team not from Chicago in the American League, but that only brings him up to 8.6% with an 8.3 SwStr% on the season. I’m just not seeing enough to get excited about here.

DEF: -7
BSR: -1

The TrOUTless Angels are so bad that I rank Berrios in line with Fried, as a top five or six arm tonight facing a lineup with plenty of strikeout upside, though it’s perfectly fine if you see value in someone like Zach Neto (102 wRC+, .193 ISO v RHP since last year, 149 wRC+ this season) against him with batters from either side of the plate between a .310 and .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. The Blue Jays have a 110 wRC+ and 10.4 K-BB% against LHP. Kikuchi may be the worst value on the board.

And lastly, the composite results of the new pitch matchup rater.