With the start of the league championship series, we have between 12 and 21 baseball games left on the season. With the Mets wrapping up the Phillies in four games, thus receiving thee off days and the Dodgers struggling more with the Padres and only getting one day of rest, the Mets gain the advantage of being able to set their pitching any way they wish to, while the Dodgers will only be able to deploy Yamamoto twice if the series goes seven games. Let's see if that's going to help them much.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Mets @ Dodgers
In a stunning move, Carlos Mendoza announced Kodai Senga as his game one starter against the Phillies. Senga has faced 20 batters all season. One start. He faced four batters in a 9/21 rehab start and then shut it down again. We’ll have to go to projections here and at least they all concur with something around three and three quarters runs per nine, which may be slightly conservative. Last year, Senga exhibited a bit of a reverse split and perhaps that’s going to help him against the Dodgers, as it did the Phillies. Batters from the left side had just a .263 wOBA against Senga with six of his 17 home runs. In the one game he did pitch this year, Senga earned a 110 Stuff+ grade.
There’s nothing wrong with his arm and he proved that after allowing a leadoff home run to Kyle Scwarber and then striking out three of his last seven batters. A walk his only other base runner. Throwing only 31 pitches may leave him in line to close to double that and perhaps three to four innings against the Dodgers. Thirteen of his pitches were fastballs, averaging 94.3 mph, down 1.5 mph from his lone season start and both his AAA starts this season and rookie season last year. I’m not concerned about that considering the layoff. He threw six splitters, three of which were offered at, all whiffs. Five of his pitches overall were swung on and missed, while another five were called strikes. Senga was a little bit wild with the Phillies helping him out some (41 O-Swing%, 44 Z-Swing%), staying away from the middle of the plate. Schwarber’s leadoff homer was the only hard hit batted ball.
Opp wRC+: 117 (123 Home, 91 Post-Season)
DEF: 7/1
B30: 4.48
BSR: 3
Jack Flaherty was traded to the Dodgers after 18 starts of a 27.5 K-BB%. He was nearly traded to the Yankees, who balked at the medicals and maybe they were right because while Flaherty still posted a 17.9 K-BB% with the Dodgers that dipped to 13.6% over his last seven starts, while his velocity also dropped half a mile per hour with the Dodgers. Flaherty’s 95 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ dropped to 92 and 98 post-trade then 90 and 94 over the last seven. The one thing that didn’t change was his quality of contact (7.7% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 HardHit%), but Flaherty was clearly not the same pitcher who began the season at the end of it. Flaherty’s significant reverse split (RHBs .315 wOBA, .311 xwOBA) may be bad news against a predominantly right-handed Mets lineup, who are supposed to have Jeff McNeil available for this series, but could stick with Jose Iglesias and J.D. Martinez, offering Flaherty just a pair of LHBs (Lindor & Nimmo).
The good news for Flaherty is that he averaged 93.3 mph on his 42 fastballs. That was exactly his season average and only 0.3 mph above his last seven starts, but 1.5 mph above his last two regular season starts. The bad news is that the Padres still belted two home runs, while only swinging and missing at five of 90 pitches, resulting in just two strikeouts with a walk and HBP over 22 batters. He was charged with four runs. The curveball generated four of the five whiffs. The slider was swung at nine times without a miss and a 95.2 mph average EV. The pair of home runs came off of a slider and a fastball with five more hard hit batted balls, but only one other one off the ground (also a slider).
Opp wRC+: 105 (103 Home, 104 Post-Season)
DEF: -4/-18
B30: 3.82
BSR: -4
I actually believe the Mets match up much better with the Dodgers than the Padres, but unfortunately am in line with the market on this game. If forced to play a side, it would probably be Mets F5 (+134) to no lower than +130. The Mets will have the starting pitching edge in every game of this series that doesn’t involve Yamamoto and they hit him hard (52.9%) in their one opportunity against him in April.
The Dodgers may have a bullpen edge, but I’m not even sure about that on such a small sample. Like the Phillies, the Mets did have some quality relievers (Maton, Diaz), who pitched poorly and the three days off will certainly help some weary arms.
The Dodgers certainly have the offensive edge, but it’s not massive and marginal base running one, but a lesser defense, especially in the games where Iglesias will be playing. The Mets strength is generally up the middle with Alvarez (good defensive catcher despite throwing issues), Lindor/Iglesias and Bader or Taylor. Nimmo is s solid left-fielder as well.
I do still have my pre-season boosted +1000 on the Dodgers to win it all, but am considering adding some Mets at +150, but would probably not go lower than that. I don’t have the confidence I did against Milwaukee and Philadelphia, who felt like declining teams, especially the Phillies, who really slipped in the second half, but the lack of quality starting pitching behind Yamamoto, who generally doesn’t go much more than twice through the order, is a concern, especially if Flaherty continues to falter.
Update
Jeremie Rehak umpires Game One. Slight pitcher's lean. In the 60s with near double digit wind out to right-center.
Update #2
Only lineup surprise is Winker over Martinez, considering Flaherty's reverse split, which I doubt Mendoza was even considering. Seems to be more of a BvP guy.
I caved and played the Mets for the series +150 (DK) for 0.5 units.
Add comment
Comments