Game Five of the ALCS between Detroit and Cleveland has been moved up to 1pm EST due to impending weather concerns. The analysis for this game will be very similar, but not exactly like Game Two of this series, where these two pitchers have already faced off. The urgency will be more emphasized for both teams in this contest. Not even Tarik Skubal may be afforded the leniency to work out of jams past the first couple of innings.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Tigers @ Guardians
Tarik Skubal became Detroit’s third pitching Triple Crown winner, but that’s something that includes Wins, which we would know nothing about. Let’s just say that all estimators exceed his 2.39 ERA, but none by more than half a run with a 25.7 K-BB% and 34 HardHit%. Batters from neither side of the plate exceeded a .265 wOBA or xwOBA against Skubal this year with LHBs below .230, while PitchingBot (PB) grades start at 52 with the fastball (60) and changeup (66) reaching elite territory, helping to register a 3.25 Bot ERA, alongside 103 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks.
In his first post-season start in Houston, Skubal struck out six of 23 batters with a single walk, four hits and no runs. He averaged 97.4 mph on his heater (96.8 season). Getting 13 whiffs with only four hard hit batted balls against Houston is no joke.
Skubal got a similarly tough matchup with Cleveland in their much better split, though they did start three LHBs (Kwan, J.Naylor, Gimenez). Another 23 batters, leading with his fastball (34) after leading with his change against the Astros and averaging the same 96.8 mph he did during the season. Skubal struck out eight over seven shutout innings, allowing only three hits without a walk. Fifteen of the 40 swings the Guardians took came up empty with 16 more foul balls and 20 called strikes. He allowed just two hard hit batted balls off the ground.
Opp wRC+: 114 (20.7 K%, 109 Home)
DEF: 19/23
B30: 4.15
BSR: 1
Matthew Boyd signed with the Guardians after Tommy John surgery with no expectations and eight starts later, he’s their number two starter in the post-season. Part of that is because Cleveland, much like Detroit, don’t have many trustable starters. The larger part of it is because he pitched well (19.9 K-BB%, 6.7% Barrels/BBE, 37.1 HardHit% over eight starts), though he did walk six of his last 35 batters. His 2.72 ERA was still below respectable estimators from a 3.10 xERA to a 4.02 dERA, but all contact neutral ones above three and a half. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .256 and .284 wOBA and xwOBA in the small sample with RHBs 20 to 30 points better. Boyd’s dominant changeup (26.2%, 0 RV/100, 62 PB grade) should play well against the Tigers (-0.87 wCH/C was second worst since the deadline). However, the 75 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ give some pause.
Boyd struck out five of the 19 Tigers he faced, walking two with four hits and no runs over 4.2 innings. He led with the fastball (25), but with 23 changeups as well (72 total pitches). His velocity was only 0.1 mph on the season. Boyd did a solid job of avoiding the middle of the plate, getting 15 whiffs (seven on the changeup) and only four hard hit batted balls (none on the changeup), though none on the ground.
Opp wRC+: 88 (24.6 K%, 93 Road, 85 Post-Season)
DEF: 5/26
B30: 2.90
BSR: 10
The prevailing image in everyone’s head when thinking of Cleveland’s bullpen in this series is Kerry Carpenter’s three run game winner against the thought to be immortal Emmanuel Clase, but it seems the relief corps for the AL Central winners has pitched quite well and better than their counterpart. Also worth mentioning, while it may not mean as much against a LHP, the threat of Carpenter perhaps not even being present (maybe they send him up there as a decoy or he pulls a Kirk Gibson) is still a big deal here. That’s a bigger LHB than just about any team in the league has coming off the bench, which could make managers think twice about changing pitchers.
If I weren’t already invested in this game with Cleveland meaning either three wins or a parlay victory (if the Padres win) in the Divisional Round Robin, I’d be siding with the home team here for about a unit. The bullpen has been as great as advertised for the most part and can match up zeroes with Skubal, while Boyd was pretty great himself. The Guardians have the clear offensive edge (especially against LHP). I’ll be posting it on Action Network (follow Rocky Jade) for tracking reasons, though may not actually be playing it since I don’t need any more exposure.
Update
Mid 60s with a light wind in from right center, I have this as about a 10% reduction in run environment and have the total just below six. Naylor is behind the plate, giving the Guardians four LHBs against Skubal.
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