Monday 10/14 NLCS/ALCS Thoughts & Analysis

The NLCS continues with an afternoon Game Two, though Game One hasn't even started yet as I write this. The ALCS gets underway Monday night in the Bronx. The only pitcher we're currently waiting on is the Dodgers,  in what would normally be Walker Buehler's spot, though you might understand their hesitance. The Dodgers are said to be considering a bullpen effort, (always impossible to analyze), which we won't know until after Game One on Sunday night. 

LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs

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Mets @ Dodgers

Sean Manaea threw a final start stinker against Milwaukee. Yet, he still posted a 22.3 K-BB% over his last 12 starts (16.4% on the season), which coincides with an arm angle change to emulate Chris Sale. His fastball PB grade increased more than five points since that point and his slider/sweeper grade increased over 10 points. His Bot ERA is half a run less than his full season total over this 12 start stretch with his Stuff+ going from below 90 to 96 with a 98 Pitching+. All season long estimators exceeded his 3.47 ERA, but only a 4.04 xFIP by more than half a run. Manaea had a reverse split this season with LHBs about 60 points higher by actual results, but less than 15 points by xwOBA. The Dodgers don’t care which arm you throw with.

Manaea rebounded in his first post-season start, striking out just four of 21 Brewers, but without a walk over five innings, allowing two runs, the first a leadoff home run to Jackson Chourio. Fifty-eight of his 86 pitches were sinkers with 23 of the remaining 28 being sweepers. Manaea was sitting 93.9 mph on those sinkers, as opposed to 92.3 mph on the season and 92.0 mph in each of his final three regular season starts. He was also elevating the majority of those sinkers, which might explain the 19 called strikes, but just five swinging ones, though just two of nine hard hit batted balls (eight sinkers, one sweeper) not on the ground.

He was down to 91.9 mph against the Phillies, below his season average, despite striking out six with two walks over seven one run innings. He once again led with 37 sinkers, a potential problem against the Dodgers, whose 2.26 wSI/C since the trade deadline was more than a full run above the second best offense, who was the only other offense to surpass 1.0. None the less, Manaea once again successfully elevated his sinker and stayed away from the middle of the plate for the most part, generating 19 swinging strikes. Fourteen of those whiffs were generated on the 28 swings taken at his sweeper and changeup. He did allow nine hard hit batted balls (all either changeup or sinker), though five of the m were on the ground.

Opp wRC+: 121 (19.8 K%, 123 Home)
DEF: 7/-6
B30: 4.25
BSR: 2

As mentioned above, we don’t know what the Dodgers will do here. It likely depends on tonight’s results. Do they have a lead in the series? How many and which relievers were used and for how long. Landon Knack is a bulk option, but threw just a single inning in the series against San Diego. Let’s revisit this one on Monday with some more information.

Update: The Dodgers are going full on bullpen game here with Brasier starting. This could mean absolutely anyone and everyone aside from their three starters after Flaherty gave them everything they wanted and needed from him last night. 

Opp wRC+: 105 (Assuming RHP, 93 Post-Season)
DEF: -4/20
B30: 3.84
BSR: -8

No pitcher, no line on this game yet. I don't love this matchup for Manaea because of the Dodger lineup's success against sinkers and their elite plate discipline. One thing to note with McNeil back is that the Mets now have the ability to play four LHBs against a RHP, making them less predominantly right-handed.

Guardians @ Yankees

Alex Cobb started just three games, covering 16.1 innings from August 9th through September 1st for Cleveland. The Guardians took a look at their other options, shrugged and said “good enough”. One would assume he’s been stretching out via bullpens the last few weeks (that wasn’t really the case). The Cobb signature, ground balls, were firmly in place (61.2%), but he struck out just 10 of 62 batters (Twins, Cubs, Pirates) with a 5.8 SwStr% with three walks and barrels plus a 44.9 HardHit%. His best game was his last, where he struck out six of 20 with fastball velocity increased a mph over the other two starts and a 12.5 SwStr%.

Left-handed batters had a .395 xwOBA against him, which exceeded actual results by a 100 points, but that’s still an extremely small sample. Let’s consider individual pitches. The sinker (56 PB grade) and Thing/splitter (58) were still good pitches, though he throws nothing the Yankees had issues handling post-trade deadline. A 107 Stuff+ and Pitching+ also suggest Cobb still has the goods.

Starting Game Three against the Tigers, Cobb lasted just 13 batters (41 pitches) with the sinker up 0.4 mph from his three start season average, but 0.2 mph down from his final start. Twenty of those pitches were sinkers with 16 splitters and five curves. He was a bit wild and only got chases on a quarter of his pitches outside the zone (59%). Cobb’s lone swing and miss came on a splitter, though 10 of his 16 batted balls were on the ground with only two elevated hard hit batted balls.

Opp wRC+: 120 (15.8 HR/FB, 116 Home)
DEF: 5/25
B30: 2.91
BSR: -6

If you ask a casual fan or television analyst, they will probably tell you that Carlos Rodon had a great second half because he had a 2.91 ERA, compared to 4.63 in the first half. That’s not exactly it though.

First 16 starts: 15.8 K-BB%, 10.5% Barrels/BBE, 43.4 HardHit%, 3.86 ERA

Next 13 starts: 24.4 K-BB%, 10% Barrels/BBE, 38 HardHit%, but 4.52 ERA.

Last three starts: 10.4 K-BB%, 17.4% Barrels/BBE, but 32.6 HardHit% and 2.16 ERA

It was just odd, but the most prevailing theme was the barrels. On the season, his 3.96 ERA was within half a run of all estimators, but with only a 3.78 SIERA below four. If we get the July and August version of Rodon, the Yankees are in good shape with less contact, meaning less hard contact. Another problem is that RHBs had a .323 wOBA and .330 xwOBA against him this year. I’m not exactly sure what Cleveland will do lineup wise because they often leave three or four LHBs in there against same handed pitching, but the power comes mostly from the right-hand side.

Pitch modeling absolutely loved Rodon this season (122 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+), while the fastball (49.4%, 0.4 RV/100, 59 PB grade) is a pitch the Guardians had no trouble handling since the deadline (0.56 wFA/C is third best). The slider (26%, -0.5 RV/100, 56 PB grade) was another story though (-0.6 wSL/C was seventh worst).

The story of Rodon’s start in Game Two against the Royals was one of both BABIP and hard contact. He struck out seven of 18 batters, but with seven hits. He also allowed seven batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph and only one of those was on the ground. The fastball velocity sat at 97 mph, up 1.6 mph from his season average and harder than he average in every single game outside his last one before the All-Star game against the Orioles, knowing he’d have some extra rest. There did not seem to be any concentrated effort capture the edges of the strike zone though and maybe some of his pitches were just a bit too fat. Rodon also generated 12 whiffs, not easy against the Royals and perhaps harder to duplicate against the Guardians.