This is it. Game Five and the deciding game of the NLDS is the only baseball game on Friday. The Padres will go with their Game Two starters, Yu Darvish, on regular rest and hope for a repeat performance. The Dodgers would only say that Yoshi Yama would be involved in the plan. They are likely being coy because the Padres have punished Yamamoto at every opportunity. It's an elimination game for both teams though. You're not gaining anything with secrecy. We all know every available arm will be available.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Padres @ Dodgers
After missing all of June, July and August, Yu Darvish returned to pitch 25.1 September innings with a 17.6 K-BB% (16.6% prior to IL) and improved 104 Stuff+ (99 prior to IL). On the season, his 3.31 ERA was a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.64 xERA to 4.09 FIP, while stranding 79.2% of his runners with a .245 BABIP, but 12 of 17 barrels (7.5%) turning into home runs. Batters from either side of the plate sat between a .277 and .302 wOBA and xwOBA with a 16 point reverse actual split turning into a seven point standard one by Statcast.
He may not be as good as he once was, but in Game Two against the Dodgers, Darvish was as good as he’s ever been. He only struck out three of 25 batters with two walks, but also only allowed a single run on three hits over seven innings. Did the BABIP gods favor him?
Darvish did what Darvish does and that’s throw seven different pitches and none more than 17 times. His single game average velocity high this season was 94.8 mph, the only time he was above 94.5 mph in a game this season. He copied that here. He kept the ball down so often that I can only count 11 pitches that might have landed in the upper half of the strike zone or above. He got just eight whiffs, 12 fouls and 13 more called strikes with six batted balls reaching a 95 mph EV. One was on the ground. One was somehow a popup. Four were at a line drive or fly ball angle. So sure, he got some BABIP help, but wasn’t allowing a lot of hard contact either. And oh, that other 94.8 mph game this season. Also against the Dodgers on May 12th. Seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts. There must be something about them.
Opp wRC+: 117 (123 Home)
DEF: 2/-10
B30: 3.67 (not the strength it was supposed to be through six PS games)
BSR: 3
Yama Yoshi posted a dominant 22.6 K-BB% this season, though the 8.1% Barrels/BBE and 41.3 HardHit% were a bit more marginal. All estimators were within half a run of his 3.00 ERA though and went in both directions. He shut down LHBs (.237 wOBA, .283 xwOBA), while RHBs had some success against him (.317 wOBA, .298 xwOBA). Yamanoto had just a 100 Stuff+, but 106 Pitching+ and used three pitches 88% of the time with a 55 grade fastball (40.4%) setting the pace. Then a curveball (23.1%) and splitter (24.2%) at 64 and 58 respectively. The breaking ball is the one the Padres had an issue with post-deadline (-0.35 wCU/C was bottom third of the league). The issues we have here is that the Padres put the ball in play. More contact generally means more hard contact with Yamamoto and he did not exceed 18 batters faced or 80 batters in any of his four starts after returning from the IL or since June 7th. Although both were early in the season (before tax day), the Padres did rough him up for eight runs over six innings with four barrels and 11 of 17 batted balls reaching a 95 mph EV.
And the Padres roughed up Yamamoto again in Game One. Two walks, one strikeout and home run plus five runs over three innings (16 batters). Twenty-five of his 60 pitches were fastballs and somebody forgot to tell him he was supposed to throw faster in the post-season because he was only 0.3 mph above his season average, although he only had three regular season starts higher. He only generated five whiffs, 10 foul balls and six called strikes out of 60 pitches. Of his four hard hit batted balls, just one was on the ground.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.8 K%, 108 Road, 113 Post-Season)
DEF: -4/-18
B30: 4.33
BSR: 4
I know nobody wants to hear this again, but I’m aligned with the market here. Not entirely with the total, but I may end up being unless there’s some hitter friendly weather. Tripp Gibson, only slightly pitcher friendly, is the scheduled umpire here, BTW. Considering I have the Padres leg of the DS RR parlay still alive, along with world championship plays on the Dodgers (+1000) and Padres (+1200), there’s no reason for further exposure here. Especially when managers will be pulling out all stops to move one.
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