Probably needless to say with so few evening games, we'll be forgoing daily fantasy notes for the third consecutive day, but hopefully I've given players enough info to work with anyway. I'll likely be gone for most of the day tomorrow, so any further updates at all are unlikely. It's a good thing all pitchers are confirmed, though I just saw the White Sox go from Bush to TBD. Not really a major event.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Angels @ Tigers
Jack Koch…Koch…Jack Koch has a 0.9 K-BB% with just six barrels allowed (6.2%), but a 46.4 HardHit% through five starts and 26.2 innings. This includes three straight quality starts with a total of three strikeouts. Maybe it’s the 61.5 GB%. And despite that, his 6.08 ERA is well above estimators ranging from a 4.59 dERA to a 5.71 xERA (.323 BABIP, 65.1 LOB%). Jack throws his sinker 67.4% of the time and it’s a marginal pitch (-1.9 RV/100, 52 PB grade), but we’ll see how it fares against the worst offense in the league against sinkers (-1.03 SI/C). A 100 Stuff+ and Pitching+ suggest there’s more to him than his early results. Left-handed batters exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs above .330.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.1 K%, 142 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.20
Keider Montero has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts with the Giants ruining a strong K-BB in between. That number currently sits at 11.8% on the season, but with an average contact profile (7.2% Barrels/BBE, 38.7 HardHit%). This projects estimators ranging from a 4.31 xFIP to a 5.05 FIP that are a bit below his 5.15 ERA with 12 of his 14 barrels leaving the yard (16.9 HR/FB). While the changeup (10%, 32 PB grade) is his only PitchingBot grade outside of a 50 to 58 range, his 96 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ are a bit below his opponent. In Montero’s case, RHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA with LHBs above .310 too.
Opp wRC+: 87 (87 Road, 35 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.95
Rangers @ White Sox
Eighteen runs (17 earned) over Nathan Eovaldi’s last 27 innings, but with a 16.9 K-BB% (18.1% season) and just five barrels allowed (5.6%), the culprits appear to be that four of them left the yard, along with a .329 BABIP and 60.5 LOB%. We shouldn’t be too concerned, though the 43 HardHit% is a bit high, resulting in a 3.89 xERA that’s above his 3.79 ERA with all non-FIP estimators below that, running as low as a 3.31 dERA. Eovaldi has really struggled on the road this season with a 12.6 K-BB%, 16.2 HR/FB, .348 wOBA and .347 xwOBA. Batters from the left-hand side have a .354 wOBA against him away fron Texas, not something he’ll really have to be concerned with against the White Sox. Four offerings range in PitchingBot grades from 51 (curveball 13.3%) to 61 (splitter 31.3%) with a 98 Stuff+ mark working up to a 103 Pitching+ one.
Opp wRC+: 75 (77 Home, 79 L7 days)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 4.51
Ky Bush has struck out more batters than he’s walked in just one of his four starts. It was not against the A’s or Tigers. It was against the Astros. With a -5.7 K-BB%, he’s allowed just two barrels (both surrendered to Detroit in his last start), but with a 49.2 HardHit%. An 81 Stuff+ and 89 Pitching+ add nothing positive to the profile. The curveball (14.9%, 50 PB grade) is his only PitchingBot grade above 40.
Opp wRC+: 97 (89 Road, 57 L7 days)
DEF: -22.5
B30: 4.92
Giants @ Brewers
Haydon Birdsong has started 10 games and 20 of his 54 strikeouts came in back to back starts against the Rockies. He hasn’t otherwise exceeded five strikeouts, but has struck out exactly five on six occasions, including each of his last three. If he’s not striking out more than five batters per start, then the 13.3 BB% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE with a 46 HardHit% become a much larger problem. As of now, non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.28 SIERA & dERA to a 4.50 xERA are below his 4.57 ERA, though that may not last long. While LHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Birdsong, RHBs are above .370. The pitch modeling is even more confusing. Birdsong has a 61 grade changeup (17.4%) that has the worst run value of all his pitches (-1.6 RV/100), while no other pitch exceeds a 41 PitchingBot grade, including the fastball (35) he throws 42.1% of the time. Alternately, a 111 Stuff+ drops to a 96 Pitching+ mark.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.65
Aaron Civale has already made eight starts for the Brewers with just a 10.4 K-BB% (13.4% season) and 8.6% Barrels/BBE (7.4% season). He’s throwing more sinkers at the expense of cutters, which must be why the ground ball rate is all the way up to 39.5% with the Brewers. Considering the cutter’s 47 PitchingBot grade and his best run value (0.9 RV/100) and the sinker’s 26 PB grade and -0.1 RV/100, I’d not be able to explain the thought process here. Civale’s 4.75 Bot ERA is a bit higher than other non-FIP estimators, but closest to his 4.84 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 94 (86 L7 days)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 3.65
Padres @ Cardinals
I don’t know if this is a Michael King thing or a San Diego defense thing (they’re not good in that area), but he’s now allowed 62 runs and 11 of them are unearned. Four of those, most recently against the Mets. He has struck out at least six in seven straight starts with his 25.6 K-BB% over that span increasing his season rate to 19.9% in combination with a 29.5 HardHit% and 5.6% Barrels/BBE. This is going to be a dangerous post-season rotation. More trivially, King has faced exactly 23 batters in five of his last six starts, though that’s not by intent. A 3.14 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.40 FIP to a 3.78 dERA (the unearned runs again). King’s pitch modeling overall is pretty marginal, despite PitchingBot grades ranging from 52 to 58 on all of his offerings.
Opp wRC+: 102 (114 L7 days)
DEF: -12
B30: 2.62
Sonny Gray allowed at least five runs for the sixth time in 10 starts last time out and eight time in 19. That’s increased his ERA to 4.07, more than a run above his SIERA (3.05) and xFIP (2.81), but just barely above his xERA (3.92). You’ve likely discerned the reason for this: his 24.1 K-BB% comes with 9.9% Barrels/BBE (14.4% last seven starts). While RHBs remain below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Gray, LHBs are now above .320. Via pitch modeling, Gray is still an elite arm with four of his five pitches exceeding a 60 PitchingBot grade, earning a 3.10 Bot ERA to go along with 110 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.6 K%, 110 Road, 109 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.26
Marlins @ Rockies
Valente Bellozo dropped his K-BB into single digits (9.4%) after walking five Cubs with only one strikeout last time out and he’s been hit pretty hard to boot too (9.5% Barrels/BBE, 47.4 HardHit%). He doesn’t have an estimators within a run and a half of his 3.35 ERA with only his FIP (4.95) below five. Batters from the right side exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him with pitch modeling giving him no reprieve. A 5.46 Bot ERA includes a single pitch exceeding a 45 PitchingBot grade with a 71 Stuff+ working up to just an 87 Pitching+. It’s all pretty bad news here.
Opp wRC+: 85 (25.8 K%, 89 Home, 84 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5 (playing a much stronger defense since the deadline)
B30: 3.86
Bradley Blalock has allowed just six runs over 17.2 innings, leaving each start at some point in the sixth inning. Before you scoff at his 3.9 K-BB%, realize that he’s started against the Diamondbacks, Padres and Yankees with only the middle one at home and allowed just three barrels. Okay, he probably won’t sustain a 3.7 HR/FB with a 27.6 GB% that isn’t fit for Coors, but he’s just extremely difficult to judge until facing a few mediocre offenses, but he gets the opposite end of the spectrum tonight. Early pitch modeling returns are high on the slider (17.5%, 6.6 RV/100, 62 PB grade), but nothing else (5.37 Bot ERA, 91 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 87 (80 Road, 131 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.68
Mets @ Diamondbacks
This tweet says it all, but I will expound. David Peterson has a 2.85 ERA without an estimator below four and a non-FIP estimator less than a run and a half above his ERA. This is because he’s produced a 7.9 K-BB% and 43.5 HardHit% with an 81.5 LOB%. He would be allowing more than 7.8% Barrels/BBE if not for a 52.2 GB%, the only positive thing about his entire profile. Actually, he did just have a pitch crack a 50 PitchingBot grade and that’s his sinker (31.8%, 2 RV/100, 52 PB grade), but he still has a 4.79 Bot ERA, 93 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+. Also, the Diamondbacks are a top three offense against sinkers (0.49 wSI/C) and fastballs (0.7 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 113 (20.6 K%, 115 Home, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.93
I’m plagiarizing myself and just updating for his last start…
It’s been seven starts since Ryne Nelson increased his fastball usage to 62% (0.5 RV/100, 60 PB grade on the season) The result has been four quality starts with a 23.1 K-BB% (14.3% season) and just four barrels. The stench of his first 15 starts is still weighing on his 4.29 ERA that’s above, but within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators, while batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. This is a different pitcher now though, with estimators below three over the last month.
Opp wRC+: 109 (109 Road, 108 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.35
I’d be playing Nelson strongly here even with his full season numbers being the only consideration, but here we have an over-valued pitcher against one on the rise due to a specific change and getting -116 here feels like an early Christmas gift. Keep in mind that Peterson has been torturing since returning from hip surgery though. Well, maybe torturing is not the right word because I still find myself occasionally rooting for the Mets when having a financial interest against them. It doesn’t hurt to have edges everywhere else in the game too (though offense maybe a wash with Arizona’s injuries), including a massive base running one. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Athletics @ Reds
I can’t immediately recall what the trade was, but now 25 year-old J.T. Ginn was a marginal Mets pitching prospect a few years back. The same appears to be true now with his current Fangraphs 40 Future Value grade and just a 12.0 K-BB% in 72.1 AAA innings. The 53.9 GB% seems to be key there. Fighting through injuries for most of the last five years or so, a recent scouting report suggested a future fifth starter. Projections average around four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25 K%, 89 Home, 109 L7 days)
DEF: -23
B30: 3.39
Julian Aguiar has struck out just six of 42 Pirates and Blue Jays with three walks and six barrels (19.4%), which account for half of his hard contact (38.7%). The 23 year-old has a 45 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and projects as a back end of the rotation starter, but had just a 12.6 K-BB% in 47 AAA innings. Projections average right around five.
Opp wRC+: 97 (25.1 K%, 90 L7d ays)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 3.88
Braves @ Phillies
Charlie Morton has struck out 21 of his last 71 Angels, Giants and Nationals, allowing five runs over 17 innings after getting blown up for eight runs by the Brewers. His 15.3 K-BB% still plays in this league, even if it doesn’t dominante, though he’s allowing more barrels (10.3%), resulting in a 4.65 xERA that’s his only estimator more than one-third of a run outside his 4.24 ERA. It’s RHBs that have given Morton more problems (.360 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). Morton’s pitch modeling is marginal with a 4.33 Bot ERA and a 95 Stuff+ turning into a 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 102 (116 Home, 117 L7 days)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 3.43
Cristopher Sanchez has gotten an entire week off since striking out eight batters for the first time since June in the poorest of quality starts (6 IP, 3 ER) in Atlanta. This, one start after a complete game two-hitter against the Nationals. The only thing below average in his profile is the strikeouts and not by much (19.1 K%, 10.7 SwStr%). He’s exhibiting elite control (5.8 BB%) with lots of weak (5.0% Barrels/BBE, 33.6 HardHit%) ground balls (58.8%). His 3.51 ERA is within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators PitchingBot grades ranging from 51 to 61 on his three pitches produce a 3.32 Bot ERA next to a 93 Stuff+ mark that works up to a 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 110 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.17
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Bowden Francis is a different pitcher since increasing his splitter usage to 26.4% (0.8 RV/100, 54 PB grade on the year) after the All-Star break. Over 33 innings, he’s produced a 26.3 K-BB% with 10.5% Barrels/BBE, but an average 38.2 HardHit%. That’s a 1.91 ERA/3.50 xFIP/3.23 FIP combo with the splitter up to a 57 PB grade and the fastball 60 over this stretch. Francis also has just a .251 xwOBA against him over the last 30 days. On the season, non-FIP estimators are all within one-third of a run of his 4.02 ERA, but you can probably drop that half a run if he keeps doing this.
Opp wRC+: 112 (89 L7 days)
DEF: 23
B30: 4.43
Kutter Crawford has allowed just one home run, though on five barrels (11.6%), following a four game stretch of 13 home runs on 13 barrels (19.1%) in just 18.2 innings. Crawford is up to 13.7% Barrels/BBE over his last 14 starts, which makes the drop off to a 7.5 K-BB% over his last four starts (16.1% season) even more concerning. The velocity hasn’t dropped, but Crawford has already hit his career high for innings and will hit the 150 inning mark in this start. Ironically, a 3.94 xERA is his only estimator below four and that’s because, despite all the barrels, he still has just a 36.9 HardHit% and a 15.6 IFFB% with just a 33.1 GB%. The 4.15 SIERA is his only other estimator below a 4.19 ERA. Both the cutter (29.8%) and fastball (35.2%) still have 60 or better PitchingBot grades to go along with strong 106 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 104 (20.3 K%, 140 L7 days)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.65
Royals @ Astros
Brady Singer has allowed 18 runs over his last 28.2 innings to drive his ERA all the way up to 3.38, which is still below estimators running as high as a 4.57 xERA. Singer has stranded 79% of his runners and allows 8.4% Barrels/BBE with a 40 HardHit%, not too much worse than the league average, while posting a 16.4 K-BB%, which is a couple of points above the league average. Pitch modeling is much more condemning (85 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+) with the sinker (41.3%, 1.1 RV/100, 52 PB grade) his only pitch grade above 45, contributing to a 4.42 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 109 (19.6 K%, 118 Home, 84 L7 days)
DEF: 26.5
B30: 3.85
Hunter Brown has failed to produce a quality start just three times in his last 16 tries with a 20.3 K-BB%, driving his season rate up to 16.7% after a rough start. He’s allowed just 4.8% Barrels/BBE with a 27.9 HardHit% over this span as well. His season ERA not sits at 3.72 with a 3.77 SIERA his only estimator above that and all within one-third of a run. PitchingBot grades range from 46 to 55 (4.26 Bot ERA), while 103 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ marks are only slightly more optimistic.
Opp wRC+: 102 (18.5 K%, 126 L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.87
Allowing Brown a bit more than a quarter run advantage that might be too small by weighted estimators and a small advantage offensively, I have them as a small home favorite because, with bullpens very comparable, the Royals take some of it back with sizeable defensive and base running edges. Thus, though a bit uncomfortable, +132 is a bit high.
Orioles @ Dodgers
Cade Povich credited his alter ego, “Slim”, for his quality start against the Red Sox upon returning to the majors. Most recently, Houston tapped him for five runs with both barrels leaving the yard and just three strikeouts. He blamed Fatso. No matter which of his personalities is pitching, Povich runs estimators from a 4.29 xERA to a 5.93 xFIP. With a 3.0 K-BB% and 10.5% Barrels/BBE (at least one barrel in every start), the reason the xERA is the only estimator below five and a half is just a 34.6 HardHit%. While the cutter (11.9%) is his worst pitch by run value (-5.5 RV/100), is also the only one exceeding a 50 PitchingBot grade (54). A 4.74 compares nicely to an 85 Stuff+ that only works up to a 95 Pitching+. None of this is nice for Povich though.
Opp wRC+: 116 (19.3 K%, 119 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.91
Welp, Bobby Miller struck out nine of 24 Rays without a walk, though he did allow three runs over six innings, including two home runs on as many barrels. Is he back? The fastball averaged 97.8 mph, his best game average since returning from the IL. In June. His 16.7 SwStr% was his best mark of the season. He still has just a 10.1 K-BB% with 11.4% Barrels/BBE and a 48 HardHit% (6.49 xERA), but he’s done enough to make me pause my assault on him (although Povich has a bit to do with that too). Pitch modeling believed in you all along Bobby (114 Stuff+)!.
Opp wRC+: 115 (20.9 K%, 115 Road, 54 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.07
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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