Not as lengthy as usual, but I did not think I was going to be posting anything for Wednesday until I ran into some extra time tonight. Daily fantasy notes are questionable. Things should be back to normal by the end of the week. On a related note, the doctor no longer believes my metabolism is well suited towards sitting in front of a computer screen for 10 hours per day. I can't lose weight just by thinking about it anymore.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open @ mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Cubs @ Pirates
Kyle Hendricks has struck out two of his last 43 batters with a 94.4 Z-Contact% and 3.8 SwStr%. He’s down to a 15.3 K%, 7.4 SwStr% and 90.7 Z-Contact% on the season. However, he’s still a great contact manager (15.5 IFFB%, 85.5 mph EV, 33.1 HardHit%) with excellent control (6.6 BB%) without a non-FIP estimator reaching five. While LHBs have a .380 wOBA and .364 xwOBA against him, who are we looking at here? The list of currently active Pittsburgh bats exceeding even a 90 wRC+ against RHP are Reynolds (129) and Cruz (126). Heck, Kiner-Falefa is the only other batter on the active roster above a 100 wRC+ against RHP at all. The fastball (12.4%, 30 PB grade) sucks, but that’s why he throws it so infrequently. His other three pitches range from 54 to 57 PitchingBot grades, while a 95 Stuff+ increases to a 100 Pitching+. He’s a fifth starter now, but nowhere near as bad as a 6.33 ERA suggests (62.1 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 82 (24.2 K%, 86 Home, 66 L7 days)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.63
The Pirates did cut Paul Skenes down to 87 pitches and just 19 batters last time out, his lowest pitch total since his debut. He simply increased his velocity, averaging 98.7 mph for the first time in a month and struck out nine Reds over six innings. We can’t expect that kind of efficiency again, which means we’re also expecting less than six innings here. Against a Pittsburgh bullpen with bottom half of the league estimators over the last 30 days, that’s good news for the Cubs because Skenes doesn’t have an estimator reaching three with batters from either side of the plate below a .256 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Skenes has matching 104 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 97 (135 L7 days)
DEF: -16
B30: 4.04
You’ve got Skenes at a reduced workload, where every other aspect of this game (including base running) belongs to the Cubs and not by any small margins either. Keep it close for five innings and we should be feeling pretty good about +145. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network.
Royals @ Guardians
Who among us has never uttered the words Wacha Bibee after a few too many drinks? Now, you have valid reason to do so my friend.
Astros @ Phillies
SpAghetti throws strikeouts (27.5%).
Opp wRC+: 102 (115 Home)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.27
Walker throws meatballs (14.2% Barrels/BBE).
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.5 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.27
Did not think I was playing this game, but a -110 (F5) just popped on on FD for Houston.
Rays @ Mariners
Tyler Alexander generally gets an opener and is not confirmed here yet (Roster Resource), but did get the straight start last time out. The 5.22 ERA matches the 5.24 xERA (10.6% Barrels/BBE), but with just a 36.9 HardHit% and all other estimators lower, In fact, with a 14.1 K-BB%, as low as a 4.21 SIERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him, but Alexander has some exceptional pitch modeling metrics, which include four of five pitches with 60+ PitchingBot grades (3.02 Bot ERA) and a 95 Stuff+ working up to a 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 90 (27 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.13
Luis Castillo has struck out exactly nine in three of his last four starts, the Mets the only above average offense in that pack and all three nine K starts at home. Castillo has also allowed 13 runs over those 23.1 innings with six home runs. He’s allowed nine barrels (11.4%) with a 46.8 HardHit% over his last five starts. While an 18.3 K-BB% is still fairly exceptional, the park is hiding some decline, especially in the contact profile (8.8% Barrels/BB, 41.9 HardHit%). However, Castillo is now at a point where his 3.66 ERA is below, but within one-quarter of a run of all estimators. Batters from the left-hand side exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs below .270. Castillo still has solid, but not elite pitch modeling grades (50 to 56 on all pitches via PitchingBot) working out to a 3.96 Bot ERA, 102 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.3 K%, 81 L7 days)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.51
Angels @ Tigers
Who has a worse fastball? Griffin Canning (37.2%, -1.1 RV/100, 35 PB grade) or Kenta Maeda (23.9%< -4 RV/100, 39 PB grade)? The latter is not yet confirmed, which is why there’s no line yet on this game and both used openers last time out. Maeda has been pitching behind one for quite some time.
Athletics @ Reds
Osvaldo Bido has a 17.2 K-BB% in six starts, allowing just three barrels with a 27.3 HardHit%.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25.1 K%, 88 Home)
DEF: -23
B30: 3.45
MLB has TBD, Roster Resource has minor league swingman, 31 year-old Randy Wynne, who is not even projected by most systems.
Opp wRC+: 97 (25.1 K%, 68 L7 days)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 3.76
Yankees @ Nationals
Shaking off a pair of rougher outings (four runs, five walks), Carlos Rodon shut down the Rockies over six innings last time out. With 9.8% Barrels/BBE matching his 4.17 xERA to his 4.16 ERA with an 18.1 K-BB%, all estimators are within half a run with only the SIERA (3.89) dropping below four. Rodon has had some issues with RHBs (.328 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). The fastball (49.6%, 0.7 RV/100, 61 PB grade) still leads a 123 Stuff+ mark, but the rest of it, including the command, can be a bit questionable, dropping him to a 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 85 (19.6 K%, 6.4 HR/FB)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 3.79
Mackenzie Gore dueled Chris Sale to one run over six innings last time out, the first time he’d allowed fewer than three runs in a start since the first of July. The velocity has begun ticking back up over his last two starts as well. Is this a second wind? Incredibly, considering how hot he started, Gore now has a 4.51 ERA that matches his 4.51 dERA and 4.56 xERA, despite a quality contact profile (6.6% Barrels/BBE, 36.4 HardHit%). The 14.4 K-BB% has additional estimators nearly half a run lower. Comparable to Rodon, Gore has a great fastball (55.2%, -0.3 RV/100, 65 PB grade), but a 112 Stuff+ that drops down to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 107 (118 Road, 132 L7 days)
DEF: -6 (better defense with recent callups)
B30: 4.40
Like the first two games of this series, the Yankees have all the edges (except base running), though not by a large enough that the Nationals don’t have some value as large dogs (+164). They’ve been plenty competitive in the first two games of this series.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Left-handed batters are between a .345 and .369 wOBA and xwOBA against both Chris Bassitt and Brayan Bello. RR is projecting 11 from that side to start this game. May have to take a look at the weather in the morning.
Braves @ Twins
How do you celebrate striking out double digit batters in three straight starts? If you’re Chris Sale, it’s by striking out just four of 28 Nationals with nine hits allowed. To be fair, that’s a contact prone offense. With a 27 K-BB%, 4.8% Barrels/BBE and 29.9 HardHit%, Sale has been nothing short of sensational. His 2.62 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators, but you wouldn’t know it from his pitch modeling. A 99 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ suggest a middle of the rotation arm. His PitchingBot grades range from 55 to 61 with a 3.19 Bot ERA, but the Twins hammer everything he throws, especially fastballs (0.3 wFA/C) and sliders (0.19 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 113 (20.7 K%, 125 Home, 128 L7 days)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 3.33
Surface results have been a bit hit or miss for David Festa, but a 23.9 K-BB% after his first start leaves no mystery of what he’s capable of. He’s allowed just 8.6% Barrels/BBE with a 37 HardHit% since a tough first start in Arizona too. The problem is that six of his seven barrels have left the park in that span. Festa’s non-FIP estimators range from 3.46 SIERA to a 4.20 xERA, but again, three of his 10 barrels came in his first start. This is a high upside pitcher with PitchingBot grades between 52 and 57, along with a 100 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ that are better than Sale’s.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.5 K%, 93 L7 days)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.50
I’m giving Sale a full run advantage, but also the Twins a large offensive one. You could argue with either, but the Braves are also a terrible base running team with a terrible defense. There’s no debating that. I’ll take the live younger arm at a nice home dog price (+124). Not so evident in this series, this is a beast of an offense at home.
Padres @ Cardinals
Joe Musgrove mowed down the Mets like it was the 2022 Wild Card series last time out, striking out nine of 22 batters over seven one hit innings on just 75 pitches. Nobody even rubbed his ear. Perhaps this is where he takes off?
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -12
B30: 2.48
Back to back seven inning, five strikeout outings for Andre Pallante, who has a 67.3 GB% over his last six starts and has been above that in five of the six.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.7 K%, 110 Road, 113 L7 days)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.18
Rangers @ White Sox
This is rumored to be Jack Leiter, who has struck out 20 of his last 37 batters at AAA with just two walks. He did have a 111 Stuff+ and 61 grade slider (PitchingBot) over three chaotic early season appearances.
Opp wRC+: 75 (24 K%, 77 Home, 66 L7 days)
DEF: 18
B30: 4.52
Rather than write about Chris Flexen, I want to tell you about how the White Sox gamed their own pitcher. Crochet started the game on Tuesday night, which was suspended after just four pitches, essentially canceling their best pitcher out. Unfortunately, I can’t cancel my White Sox +130 out on FanDuel and am stuck with whatever they decide to throw in what is now essentially the first game of a double header on Wednesday. This stupid team deserves to lose 130.
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.3 K%, 89 Road, 39 L7 days)
DEF: -22.5
B30: 4.79
Giants @ Brewers
Kyle Harrison on the road: RHBs .359 wOBA w/ 10 of his 16 HRs allowed, 9.9 K-BB%, 5.44 FIP, 4.87 xFIP. 17 barrels.
You do not want road Harrison.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.56
Freddy Peralta has struck out nine of his last 68 batters (7.4 SwStr%). Averaging below 94 mph each of last two starts.
Opp wRC+: 95 (88 L7 days)
DEF: 18.5
B30: 3.59
Marlins @ Rockies
Max Meyer has allowed 24 runs over his last 29.1 innings with a 7.5 K-BB%, 15% Barrels/BBE and a 51 HardHit%.
Opp wRC+: 85 (25.8 K%, 88 Home, 65 L7 days)
DEF: -2 (fielding a much better defense since deadline)
B30: 4.02
Kyle Freeland has allowed 14 runs (13 earned) over his last 20 innings. He has just a 1.5 K-BB% over his last three starts and is now up to 10% Barrels/BBE on the year, while RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 78 (78 Road, 114 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.74
Mets @ Diamondbacks
Luis Severino held the Padres to one run over five innings, despite walking four last time out. He shut out the Marlins on four hits with eight strikeouts before that. He struck out eight Mariners, but allowed four runs, three barrels and two home runs over five innings prior to that. Your guess is as good as mine and I’ve watched almost every start. The contact profile is excellent (5.5% Barrels/BBE, 34.8 HardHit%), matching his best estimators (3.91 xERA) to his ERA (3.84).
Opp wRC+: 112 (19.7 K%, 116 Home, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.02
After a bounce back last season, Eduardo Rodriguez is down below his 2022 velocity, averaging 91.5 mph through his first three starts, but has ticked up slightly with each start (91.8 mph last start). With two walks and just one strikeout in his first start (Cleveland), E-Rod has struck out 10 of 45 batters with two walks since, but those starts were against the Rockies and Marlins, making it really difficult to evaluate where he is. I’m looking to pitch modeling and seeing a mixed bag. The main two (fastball, changeup make up 67.4% of pitches) exceed 55 PitchingBot grades, but the 74 Stuff+ is concerning (97 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 118 (109 Road)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.34
Orioles @ Dodgers
Corbin Burnes has allowed 22 runs (20 earned) over his last 20.2 innings with an 11.3 K-BB% (16.3% season). His 3.28 ERA does match a 3.38 dERA and 3.34 xERA though (32 HardHit%).
Opp wRC+: 113 (120 Home, 133 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.97
Walker Buehler has an 8.7 K-BB% (1.0% L5 starts). His best estimator is a 4.72 xFIP. Left-handed batters have a .450 wOBA and .377 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 115 (20.9 K%, 115 Road, 66 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.03
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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