Some are shorter than usual, but just a couple of games away from completing the slate, and if all goes as expected, there will be daily fantasy notes posted here for the first time since Monday.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Brewers @ Reds (DH)
Colin Rea has a 22.2 K-BB% over his last 42.2 innings, but with 10.9% Barrels/BBE. He also has a 79.9 LOB% for the season.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25 K%, 88 Home, 89 L7 days)
DEF: 20.5
B30: 3.55
Five starts back in the rotation, Nick Martinez has sustained his K-BB (16.5%) and hasn’t really sacrificed any velocity.
Rhett Lowder will make his debut in the second game. He’s a back end top 100 prospect (FG) with a 50 Future Value grade. The Reds are moving him aggressively with just six innings at AAA and an 18.2 K-BB% in 77.1 AA innings with a 50.9 GB%.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -13
B30: 4.04
Update 11:55 EST: Almost 100 degrees?
Red Sox @ Tigers
After striking out eight Astros without a walk over six innings (two earned runs), Tanner Houck followed up by walking four Diamondbacks with just a pair of strikeouts. Now, the first half Cy Young contender is down to a 14 K-BB% with a 3.23 ERA benefiting from 13 unearned runs and just 10 of 26 barrels leaving the park. Non-FIP estimators range from a 3.54 dERA to a 4.07 xERA. PitchingBot grades remain between 54 and 61 with a 3.44 Bot ERA and strong 109 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24 K%, 136 L7 days)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.68
Casey Mize has struck out 17 of 54 in four rehab starts, walking just four without a home run. When we last saw him at the major league level, all non-FIP estimators (33% of barrels becoming home runs) were within one-quarter of a run of his 4.23 ERA with more encouraging pitch modeling. In addition to 108 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ scores, his three most frequently thrown pitches reside between 51 and 58 PitchingBot grades.
Opp wRC+: 112 (24 K%, 117 Road, 85 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.79
Things that I do not believe include that Tanner Houck is as bad as he’s been since the break or that the Tigers can keep hitting as well as they have since reinforcements arrived. I do believe they are better now though and will go with the hot team over the terrible defense and bullpen as a home dog. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 4 EST: No Yoshida. Devers DH, Gonzalez 3B. McKinstry in for Keith. 3.2% gain on DET.
Braves @ Phillies
Reynaldo Lopez has struck out 17 of 44 Nationals and Phillies in home starts since returning from the IL. He’s also continued a concentrated effort to utilize his curveball more as a legitimate third pitch. Of course, his 2.02 ERA remains more than a run and two-thirds below all non-FIP estimators (85.8 LOB%, 25% Home Run to Barrel Ratio).
Opp wRC+: 101 (114 Home, 116 L7 days)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 3.25
Ranger Suarez struck out six of 19 Royals in his first start back from the IL, but was held to 72 pitches without a rehab start. His 2.82 ERA is also below estimators, but within half a run of everything except a 3.39 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 110 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.19
Update 3:45 EST: No Bohm.
Cubs @ Nationals
Shota Imanaga (not confirmed) has a 4.47 ERA/4.68 xFIP/4.04 FIP combo over his last 15 starts. I’m cherry picking a bit from when the weather started warming and 19 of his last 24 barrels have left the yard and he still has a 19.2 K-BB% over that span, but he still has a 3.08 ERA with every estimator above three and a half with only the dERA (4.09) reaching four. That’s because 17.2% of his runs have been unearned, but don’t be so surprised he’s barrel prone now. Imanaga is basically working with one plus pitch and very precariously at the top of the zone with his fastball (53.4%, 0.7 RV/100, 66 PB grade). The splitter is very marginal (30.8%, 0.3 RV/100, 47 PB grade). A 90 Stuff+ works up to a 103 Pitching+, but he has be precise.
Opp wRC+: 85 (19.8 K%, 6.7 HR/FB)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.58
Jake Irvin has just a 9.2 K-BB% over his last five starts, although he has faced the Orioles, Phillies and Braves in three straight road starts. He shut down on the curveball (14.5%) in his last start (32.8% season). It’s his second best graded pitch (0.6 RV/100, 58 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 99 (177 L7 days – WTF?)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.28
Padres @ Rays
Martin Perez first three starts for Padres (COL, @MIA, PIT): 18.1 IP - 71 BF – 4R – 4 HR – 3 BB – 21 K
Martin Perez last two starts for Padres (MIN, NYM): 8.1 IP – 38 BF – 4 R – 2 HR – 4 BB – 3K
Guess it was all about the matchups. This is an interesting one because the Rays can still hit LHP.
Opp wRC+: 111 (24.9 K%, 77 L7 days)
DEF: -12
B30: 2.64
While we’re at it, Taj Bradley last five starts: 26 IP – 119 BF – 24 R – 7 HR – 9 BB – 22 K
He’s faced some of the best and worst offenses in the league over this span with his best performance three runs in six innings in Oakland two starts back.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.6 K%, 110 Road, 111 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.24
Update 3:55 EST: Solano in for Arraez. Padres (now +110) getting close to value town (+120 maybe?).
Cardinals @ Yankees
In five starts for the Cardinals, Erick Fedde has an 8.8 K-BB% (13.6% season) with five home runs on seven barrels. The 8.8 SwStr% has been a bit questionable all season and it’s now just 7.6% with the Cardinals. The sinker (30.2%, 0.6 RV/100, 44 PB grade) might be a problem here (Yankees 0.98 wSI/C is best in MLB by nearly half a run).
Opp wRC+: 124 (10.2 K-BB%, 16.4 HR/FB, 119 Home, 121 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.17
Marcus Stroman allowed three runs to the Rockies at Yankee Stadium last time out, striking out five with three walks and a 53.3 HardHit%. The Yankee booth was gushing about what a great job he did. Now down to a 7.0 K-BB%, his 3.88 ERA is more than two-thirds of a run below all estimators with LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him and not a single one of his six or seven offerings reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 102 (91 Road)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.86
DFS Notes: A 10 game Friday night slate includes three protected environments, one (Arizona) already confirmed closed with the other two in Texas almost always closed as well. We’re starting to see some cooler temperatures again without winds getting out of hand. Four offenses exceed five implied runs, the pair at Coors and the pair of New York teams, with two of them around the six run mark. Four more reach four and a half runs with two more right around that mark. Lastly, seven teams fail to reach the four run mark with the Marlins all the way down at 2.55.
We start in the Bronx with temperatures not reaching 70 and a light wind in from center. None the less, the Yankees (5.91) are the top offense outside Coors tonight, though the Cardinals (3.59) are fifth from the bottom. Stroman is still one of my worst values on the board, though Fedde may be worse here, but the Yankees have been a difficult DFS roster all season because their two biggest threats are virtually their only two threats and cost the same as some pitchers. Aside from Judge (220 wRC+, .381 ISO v RHP, 277 wRC+ L30 days, 243 wRC+ Home) and Soto (187, .305, 157, 184), Wells (130, .204, 140, 117) is a very viable catching option tonight. This St Louis combo is very easy to run on, while they also have the fifth worst pen estimators over the last month (Helsley back to back – 31). No interest in Cardinal bats with one exception. Luke Baker (49, .083, 118, --) is the nearly free square tonight at $2.3K or less and has been hitting cleanup.
Update 3:40 EST: No Baker of course. STL is climbing towards a point they may have some value above +150.
Pirates @ Guardians
With a 9.9 K-BB% and 9.5% Barrels/BBE, Bailey Falter’s 4.25 ERA is in line with his 4.27 FIP because just 14 of 33 barrels have left the yard. All other estimators exceed four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 107 (20.7 K%, 108 Home)
DEF: -16
B30: 4.36
I don’t know how Ben Lively and his 68 Stuff+ (93 Pitching+) are still in this rotation. He has a 4.44 ERA/5.48 FIP/4.78 xFIP combo over his last 13 starts with a 9.4 K-BB%, but his first 10 starts must have been enough to keep him around.
Opp wRC+: 84 (24.1 K%, 85 Road, 118 L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.83
DFS Notes: In the low-to-mid 80s with a light wind out to left center, this may be the warmest game on the slate. The Guardians (4.93) are fifth from the top with the Pirates (4.07) bottom half of the board. Again, two over-valued pitchers. With batters from either side of the plate between a .302 and .316 wOBA and xwOBA against Lively, Reynolds (131 wRC+, .198 ISO v RHP) and Cruz (128, .202) grade well here. Might as well get the latter while he’s still SS eligible, although with the strength of that group this year, it may be better with him in the outfield. He has a 162 wRC+ L30 days. Lively and Hedges are tough to run on and the Guardians have top third of the league estimators L30 days. With RHBs owning a .321 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against Faltner and LHBs at a .289 wOBA, but .337 xwOBA, I’m finding Guardians fitting nicely into my single entry lineups tonight, starting with potentially one of the top values on the slate, Big Christmans Jhonkensy Noel (219, .548) for less than $4K. Fry (172, .261), Thomas (138, .164) and Kwan (143, .131) are other potentially great values with Ramirez (194, .340) a more expensive top bat. Note that Ramirez and Noel exceed a 130 wRC+ L30 days, but J.Naylor is the only other projected Guardian above 90. Falter and Grandal can be run on and the Pirates have bottom third of the league estimators L30 days.
Update 4:15 EST: McCutchen back and in the cleanup spot. De La Cruz sits. Played CLE o4.5 (-111).
Athletics @ Rangers
J.P. Sears snapped a string of four straight starts with seven innings, striking out nine Giants twice, with seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Brewers. Sears allowed four barrels with a 64.7 HardHit% and 4.4 SwStr%. It’s been a lot of feast or famine for Sears to arrive at mediocrity this season. His 12.4 K-BB% and 9.8% Barrels/BBE produce a 4.35 xERA that matches his actual ERA. All other estimators are higher with only a 4.92 dERA more than half a run so. Sears does have some issues with RHBs (within four points of .340 wOBA and xwOBA), but there is some encouragement in his PitchingBot grades with the changeup (18.7%, -0.3 RV/100) his only grade below 50.
Opp wRC+: 97 (76 L7 days)
DEF: -23
B30: 3.44
Seven of the 15 Guardians faced last time out scored. He has a 14.1 K% over his last 52.1 innings with 8.3% Barrels/BBE and a 42 HardHit%. Just 36% of his barrels have left the yard this season. Gray’s 4.32 ERA matches his 4.31 SIERA and is within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators. That LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him isn’t of great significance against the A’s, but the fastball (44.7%) and slider (43.7%) both have 47 PitchingBot grades (as does the curveball at 4.4%), while Statcast raises RHBs from a .257 wOBA to a .312 xwOBA against him too.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.1 K%, 116 L7 days)
DEF: 14.5
B30: 4.45
Large defensive edge for the Rangers, though they do put their lesser gloves out there against LHP. Otherwise, I’m not seeing much of a gap between the starting pitching and offenses with Oakland pen estimators a run better over the last 30 days. The dog at +130.
DFS Notes: A neutral run environment with the roof closed, the Rangers (4.64) are top half of the board with the A’s (3.86) bottom half. At $8K in a neutral environment against a below average offense that doesn’t strike out, you could have some Sears exposure, but he’s not high on my list. Gray is cheap enough to have some value against a predominantly right-handed lineup, but that said, Lawrence Butler (131 wRC+, .254 ISO v RHP, 124 wRC+ L30 days 147 wRC+ Road) is one of my top values on the board. Bleday (124, .193, 169, 126) is another potentially strong value, while Rooker (157, .252, 119, 160) is nearly matchup proof now. You can run on Gray and Heim. The Rangers have bottom five pen estimators L30 days with Yates (40) and Robertson (37) working two of three. Semien (136, .183, 87, 110) and Langford (154, .264, 81, 108) are Texas bats of interest with Grossman (136, .151, 22, 116) potentially adding value dependent upon lineup slot. The A’s have an upper half of the board pen the last 30 days, but have been heavily worked this week, though Miller and Fergusen were off Thursday after pitching three of the previous four days.
Update 5:20 EST: No roof info. No Seager. 2.82% gain on OAK.
Royals @ Astros
Seth Lugo has a 5.58 ERA over his last eight starts with a 10.2 K-BB% that’s dropped his season rate to 14.7%. The 8.6% Barrels/BBE and 42 HardHit% he’s allowed over this span also increase his season rates. Still, only four of his 14 barrels over this stretch and 14 of 40 on the season have left the yard, so the 3.44 FIP is still in good shape with the 3.18 ERA, but all other estimators range from 3.97 to 4.07. If it’s not evident there, it’s certainly evident in pitching grades where just one of his 534 pitches (the curveball) exceeds a 50 PitchingBot grade. Lugo has a 4.42 Bot ERA, 97 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+. Average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 111 (19.4 K%, 118 Home, 114 L7 days)
DEF: 26.5
B30: 3.94
Framber Valdez has a 27.6 K-BB% over his last eight starts, increasing his season mark to 16.6% with at least eight strikeouts in six of those starts. Paired with a 59.2 GB%, Valdez no long has an estimator reaching even three and a half.
Opp wRC+: 100 (17.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 8.1 HR/FB, 128 L7 days)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.74
DFS Notes: Another neutral run environment with the roof closed, the Astros (4.28) are middle of the board with the Royals (3.22) second from the bottom. Lugo is at least adequately priced. I don’t hate him, he’s just an average pitcher in a tough spot. Framber is my number two arm tonight in a low upside spot and far behind the obvious number one. He’s a decent pivot if you’re looking to subvert ownership expectations. The matchup proof Bobby Witt (161 wRC+, .231 ISO v LHP, 194 wRC+ L30 days, 140 wRC+ Road) is my lone Kansas City bat of interest in a lineup that struggles on the road. The Houston bullpen is barely inside the top third of the league via L30 day estimators. With LHBs now at a .309 wOBA and .319 xwOBA against Lugo, Alvarez (161, .265, 223, 117) is my only Houston bat of interest. Lugo is very tough to run on, though Kansas City pen estimators are barely bottom third of the league L30 days with Erceg (47 L4 days) taking himself out on the same play he took Pasquantino out on and Schreiber (44) has worked three of the last four as well.
Update 4:50 EST: No roof update. Line movement towards Astros and I can't imagine that has much to do with Pasquantino. Bregman out too.
Blue Jays @ Twins
Kevin Gausman has completed at least seven innings in five of his last eight starts and does have four double digit strikeout efforts in his last 17, but still just a 14.9 K-BB% over that span and 15.5% on the season. He struck out 10 Angels last time out, but as noted in PitchersList’s SP Roundup, he got just five whiffs on the splitter. His 4.10 ERA is within one-tenth of a run of contact neutral estimators, but with 10.7% Barrels/BBE, the xERA is 4.75. The splitter still grades as a good pitch via PichingBot (55), but not as elite anymore as the fastball (64).
Opp wRC+: 113 (124 Home)
DEF: 23
B30: 4.35
Pablo Lopez struck out nine Cardinals over seven four hit, shutout innings last time out and, like Gausman, he’s gone through fits and stops this year, failing to consistently reclaim last year’s glory. However, in his case, it’s more about his 4.26 ERA flying well above estimators (3.36 dERA – 3.74 FIP). The 21 K-BB% is still 2.3 points lower than last year, while the 7.8% Barrels/BBE and 38.4 HardHit% are slightly higher as well. A slight decline in pitch modeling too with a 3.20 Bot ERA, 97 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ all just a bit worse than 2023.
Opp wRC+: 103 (20.4 K%, 111 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.34
DFS Notes: Low 70s with a near double digit wind out to left-center, the Twins (4.51) are middle of the board with the Blue Jays (3.49) third from the bottom. Gausman is right around the edge of my top five because he goes deep in games and still has the occasional massive upside, but it’s a really tough spot. With batters from either side between a .302 and .352 wOBA and xwOBA, I’d seriously consider Minnesota bats, including Wallner (192 wRC+, .345 ISO v RHP, 199 wRC+ L30 days, 194 wRC+ Home), Lewis (134, .315, 99, 191), Castro (119, .145, 102, 127) and Larnach (126, .207, 144, 123). Every one of the projected Minnesota bats has at least a 110 wRC+ at home this year. The Blue Jays have the eight worst pen estimators L30 days, which is actually an improvement for them. Pablo Lopez is my number three overall arm tonight by a smidge, despite the lack of strikeouts in the Toronto lineup. Vlad (163, .223, 218, 155) is the only bat I’d consider rostering against him or the Minnesota pen with the fifth best estimators L30 days.
Update 5:40 EST: Line movement towards MIN. No Springer or Loperfido. Miranda in for Kepler.
Mets @ White Sox
Tyler Megill has been riding the shuttle back and forth from AAA, appearing whenever the Mets are in need of a sixth starter, as they are here with Blackburn hitting the IL. Since striking out nine Dodgers at the end of May, over seven three-hit, shutout innings, Megill has posted a 13.1 K-BB% over 31 big league innings, but with 10 barrels (10.9%) and a 48.9 HardHit%. He has the stuff (108 Stuff+), but just can’t consistently put it where he wants. His AAA numbers include more strikeouts (32.9%), but the same double digit walk rate (10.4%). A 5.17 ERA on the season is well above estimators ranging from a 3.76 dERA to a 4.35 xERA, but, again, we’re looking at much worse numbers (4.42 xFIP) over his last 31 innings since that Dodger start.
Opp wRC+: 74 (77 Home, 76 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.07
Down to a 9.0 K-BB%, a league average contact profile can’t do much to help Jonathan Cannon at this point. All estimators exceed his 4.57 ERA without reaching five with LHBS exceeding a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him (the Mets will usually play four with Winker in the lineup). Pitch modeling tells a more optimistic story. Cannon throws four pitches more than 10% of the time, ranging from 49 to 56 PitchingBot grades, including a 56 grade sweeper (0.5 RV/100), which could have some success against the Mets (-0.34 wSL/C). A 92 Stuff+ works up to a 99 Pitching+, which is a point higher than Megill’s mark despite the 16 point gap in Stuff+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 108 (109 Road, 90 L7 days)
DEF: -24.5
B30: 4.52
The Mets have edges in every aspect of this game (although the Mets are one of the worst base running teams, while the White Sox are neutral – guess you can’t be bad at something you don’t do), but Megill as this large a road favorite (+185) at this point? White Sox lines are inflated right now. Mets also used a lot of bullpen in Arizona.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out to right-center, the Mets (5.45) are third from the top with the White Sox (3.55) fourth from the bottom. Cannon is just $5.6K on DK for those who want to punt and pray. Megill is a borderline top five-ish arm tonight and at a low enough price ($7.5K or less) that he’s my DK SP2, though I still don’t think he should be a two to one favorite over any team right now. The simple truth is no Chicago projected bat exceeds a 100 wRC+ v RHP this year. The Mets pen has bottom half of the board estimators L30 days with Diaz (39) working two straight. Subsequently, Alavarez (95) is the only projected Mets bat below a 100 wRC+ v RHP with Lindor (130 wRC+, .198 ISO v RHP, 162 wRC+ L30 days), Nimmo (112, .175, 90) and Vientos (128, .261, 130) rating best. The White Sox have the third worst pen estimators L30 days.
Orioles @ Rockies
Albert Suarez has allowed just two runs over his last 23.1 innings with a 16.7 K-BB% (10.7% season). He’s been a solid fill in for the Orioles, but nowhere near his 3.18 ERA. He’s allowed just 5.8% Barrels/BBE and just eight of those 18 barrels have left the yard. He doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below four (78.8 LOB%) and contact neutral estimators exceed four and a half. The changeup is a quality pitch (17.1%, 0.6 RV/100, 62 PB grade), but his only above average PItchingBot grade, leading to a 4.59 Bot ERA to go along with 90 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 85 (25.9 K%, 89 Home)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.94
Austin Gomber has been pitching fairly well with three quality starts over his last five, two of seven innings with two runs or less. Still, he hasn’t done much to improve upon his 10.9 K-BB% over this span, while allowing 10.3% Barrels/BBE is not ideal in Colorado. His 4.70 ERA is, unfortunately, within half a run of all estimators with RHBs within seven points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Surprisingly, Gomber only has one below average PitchingBot grade, but it is his fastball (41.2%, -0.6 RV/100, 46 PB grade). His 4.26 Bot ERA and 97 Pitching+ are slightly better than Suarez.
Opp wRC+: 116 (113 Road, 59 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.58
Despite the similar pitch modeling numbers, I’m giving Suarez a nearly half run edge here. The Rockies are at home with defensive and base running edges and while the Orioles have bullpen and offensive advantages, those parts of their game have been shaky enough lately that +152 feels like a nice price.
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a near double digit wind out to left further enhances the top hitting environment in the league. The O’s (6.13) top the board with the Rockies (5.37) fourth. Suarez ($6.2K) is cheap enough to keep in your multi-entry player pool against this offense, while I want no part of Gomber in this spot. Doyle (119 wRC+, .223 ISO v RHP, 119 wRC+ L30 days, 144 wRC+ Home), Tovar (99, .197, 46, 84) and Blackmon (86, .150, .52, 119) are the top rated Colorado bats. The Baltimore pen has bottom third of the league estimators L30 days, though their top relievers haven’t pitched in a few days. Despite Henderson, Rutschman, Santander and Urias being the only O’s above a 100 wRC+ against LHP among those projected, there aren’t likely any bad spots in this lineup. Rutschman (165, .195, 81, 117) is a top bat and catcher. Slater (70, .048, 147, 94) is too cheap for a leadoff bat at Coors. Urias (115, .181, 149, 126) is too affordable as well. The Rockies have the worst pen estimators in the league L30 days.
Update 5:45 EST: No Rutschman and a massive 5.67% gain on COL.
Mariners @ Angels
George Kirby has allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over his last 14.1 innings with a 12.2 K-BB%. He has a 20.4 K-BB% overall, but just 17.9% on the road. That’s still pretty good, but opposing batters increase 51 points to a .313 wOBA against him on the road, LHBs a .373 wOBA in those situations. Like most Seattle pitchers, the park takes some credit for their success with 14 of his 17 home runs being surrenderd on the road. Concerned? Not really. He’s elite control over good stuff, but occasionally gets into these ruts where he throws too many fat pitches (which is why I said control rather than command). Non-FIP estimators are all within one-tenth of a run of his 3.48 ERA, adjust that a bit higher on the road. PitchingBot grades start at 54 on the heater and run all the way up to 68 on the sinker, which should find a ton of success against the Angels (-0.54 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 87 (92 Home, 36 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -11.5
B30: 4.26
Samuel Aldegheri (or SpAghetti 2?) is the first Italian born player to do something or other. Closing in on 23 years-old next month, the 45 Future Grade lefty (Fangraphs), considered one of the 10 best players traded at the deadline (Phillies), has above average command potential with a good slider and back end of the rotation potential. He was ranked Philadelphia’s 23rd best prospect in January (FG again). He’s only even pitched 27.1 innings at AA with a 20.8 K-BB%, which includes a barely double digit walk rate. Only Steamer is currently projecting him and its close to five.
Opp wRC+: 91 (27.3 K%)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.12
DFS Notes: Around 70 with a light wind out to right-center, the Mariners (4.89) are top half of the board with the Angels (3.61) are sixth from the bottom. Kirby is right there with Lopez (Pablo) as a borderline top three arm tonight. No interest in Angels bats. Is Aldegheri even available? If he’s cheap, why not against the Mariners? Arozarena (141), Crawford (138), Julio (129) and Moore (110) are the top Seattle bats against LHP. Arozarena (.238) and Raleigh (.286) are the top power bats. The Angels have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days.
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Clayton Kershaw has looked okay in his six starts. But just okay with a 12.7 K-BB% and league average 10.7 SwStr%. His 39.6 GB% is his worst rate since 2009. He’s allowed just one home run on three barrels (3.2%), but that’s totally unsustainable even if he didn’t’ have the low ground ball rate and 40.9 HardHit% (career worse, but last year’s 39.1% was also a career worst). Left-handed batters have a .338 wOBA and .329 xwOBA. Do I think some of this stuff will improve? I hope so, but if we take our cue from his pitch modeling, Kershaw doesn’t have a single pitch reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade (4.85 Bot ERA), though Stuff+ (101) and Pitching+ (100) think he’s average, which is around what his estimators say.
Opp wRC+: 112 (20.6 K%, 116 Home, 134 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.94
Zac Gallen is coming off nine strikeouts over six shutout innings at Fenway with just two hits. It’s the most batters he’s struck out in a start since May. It’s been a lot of up and down recently and on the season. He threw a lot of pitches last year. His 14.3 K-BB% is a career low by nearly four points, but the 6.0% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed is the second lowest rate of his career, while his 40.4 HardHit% is also his career rate. He’s been fortunate that only 40% of his barrels have left the yard, but while all non-FIP estimators are above his 3.65 ERA, all are within half a run. Gallen’s pitch modeling isn’t great either though (4.66 Bot ERA, 99 Stuff+, Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 112 (108 Road, 92 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.22
I’m pretty stunned that the Diamondbacks are clear dogs here. Gallen hasn’t been at his best, but he’s been better than Kershaw, who is clearly showing signs of either decline or not being fully healthy yet. If you don’t see it in the results, it’s even more evident in the pitch modeling. Offenses are comparable with maybe a slight edge to the Dodgers via Arizona injuries, but that’s it. The home team has significant defensive, bullpen and base running advantages.
DFS Notes: Roof closed, this is a neutral run environment with the Dodgers (4.47) smack middle of the board and the Diamondbacks (4.03) a bit lower. I have little interest in either pitcher here, grading Gallen slightly higher due to workload. However, I’m not heavily attacking either pitcher, though it’s fine to throw in a stack or two against two pitchers who haven’t been at their best this year. Gurriel (143 wRC+, .178 ISO v LHP, 135 wRC+ L30 days) and Grichuk (118, .133, 118) are your value bats. Marte, Walker and Moreno being IL’d hurts a bit here. Shohei (195, .389, 120) and Mookie (149, .199, 135) remain matchup proof. Edman and Smith are the only projected Dodgers below a 100 wRC+ v RHP this year. Add Freeman to that group for the only projected Dodgers below a 120 wRC+ L30 days. I was a bit surprised to find the D’Backs with the second best estimators L30 days. The Dodgers are middle of the pack, but have been heavily worked at the top the last couple of days against the Orioles.
Update 6:20 EST: No LAD LU yet, but Grichuk bats second.
Marlins @ Giants
Adam Oller is nearly 30 already. Who knew? He’s struck out eight of 46 batters with six walks, allowing two home runs on three barrels with a 43.3 HardHit%. He has a career 2.1 K-BB% over 104.1 innings with 9.9% Barrels/BBE. Projections average above five.
Opp wRC+: 93 (71 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -3 (much stronger defensive unit since the deadline)
B30: 3.75
The almighty Blake Snell, who had struck out 55 of his previous 125 batters with just 11 walks was set to dominate the lowly Mariners last time out, but ended up walking one more (six) than he struck out (five), lasting three innings. He’ll still occasionally remind you why he didn’t get that $200m offer and it’s that 11.2 BB%, but with a 33 K%, 15.9 SwStr%, 77.3 Z-Contact% and elite contact profile (5.6% Barrels/BBE, 28.7 HardHit%), this should be considered a blip. All estimators fall below his 3.76 ERA with contact inclusive ones below three. His three most frequently thrown pitches range from 58 to 67 PitchingBot grades with a 120 Stuff+ mark dropping down to a 103 Pitching+, which shouldn’t surprise.
Opp wRC+: 78 (82 Road, 128 L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.69
DFS Notes: Around 60 degrees without much wind, the Giants (4.45) are middle of the board with the Marlins (2.55) holding up the bottom. Enough with the suspense, Blake Snell is tonight’s top pitcher by a mile and still a potential top value. You may want to pivot for ownership reasons, but he’s in both of my single entry lineups and I expect ownership upwards of 40 or even 50%. Unless your chosen fantasy site gives a ton of points for walks, Miami bats are of no interest here. A .385 wOBA and .437 xwOBA for LHBs with RHBs below .250 in two starts for Oller. Wade (120 wRC+, .112 ISO v RHP, 89 wRC+ L30 days) and Conforto (91, .183, 132) are my top rated Giants. Oller and Fortes aren’t easy to run on. The Marlins still have top half of the league pen estimators L30 days with their top three arms all throwing more than 20 pitches on Thursday at Coors.
Update 6:25 EST: Inconsequential MIA LU not out yet, but shakeup for the Giants. Yaz leads off. Bailey is back.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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