Went through all 15 games for Saturday and only came up with a pair worth talking about. We're still waiting on some lines though, so perhaps more in the afternoon. Place holders were left for all games just in case.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Blue Jay @ Yankees
Cardinals @ Cubs
Brewers @ Nationals
Royals @ Tigers
Diamondbacks @ Pirates
Red Sox @ Rangers
White Sox @ Twins
Garrett Crochet remains dominant with estimators only as high as a 2.59 dERA, though it was a surprise he struck out just three of 18 Mariners last time out. The thing to recognize here though, is 28, 74 and 64. Those are his pitch counts in his last three starts. Still an extremely valuable trade chip this winter, the White Sox will do everything possible to keep him healthy, which means we’re likely to see the Chicago bullpen for at least half of this game after Crochet is probably good to great two times through the order.
Opp wRC+: 113 (21 K%, 123 Home)
DEF: -17.5
B30: 5.01
As opposed to Crochet, who’s winding down, Bailey Ober is just heating up. Six straight quality starts, three of seven or more innings, with just 11 runs total (nine earned) and a 27 K-BB% (20.8% season). With only about a third of his contact on the ground and 9% Barrels/BBE, his 3.76 ERA is within one third of all estimators with none exceeding actual results. In fact, he has a 3.76 xFIP and FIP as well. Over the last month, estimators are closer to three. An elite changeup (25.6%, 1.1 RV/100, 70 PB grade) is a great way to slice through the White Sox (-1.9 wCH/C is 1.2 worse than the next worst offense in the league).
Opp wRC+: 72 (24.1 K%, 75 Road, 76 L7 days)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.88
One way to attack this might be to wait until Crochet gets pulled, but at that point, if the Twins have a lead or even if it’s tied, I don’t think you’re getting a better line and I’m not sure the White Sox can do much damage against a white hot pitcher. The White Sox have the third worst pen estimators in the league over the last 30 days and Kopech has only been gone a few days. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Orioles @ Guardians
Giants @ Reds
Rays @ Astros
Marlins @ Braves
Rockies @ Padres
Dodgers @ Athletics
Mets @ Angels
David Peterson has been a bit of a luck sack this year. With an 82.2% strand rate, he’s generated a 3.52 ERA more than a run below all of his estimators. His 53.4 GB% is actually down 1.2 points from last year, while his 7.2 K-BB% is half his career rate, along with the same 44.1% hard contact issue he had last year. None of this is good and batters form either side exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Pitch modeling is also well below average (4.89 Bot ERA, 94 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+), but has never really liked Peterson’s arsenal. The Mets defense has improved to league average, but there’s just nothing to suggest that Peterson can maintain this charade much longer.
Opp wRC+: 95 (21.1 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.12
Jose Soriano was shelled by Oakland last time out. He had allowed just a run in each of his last two starts, despite walking seven. Like Peterson, he’s a single digit K-BB guy (9.9%) with a high ground ball rate (59.2%), but better, although the 44.6% hard hit rate is nearly the same. Soriano’s worst estimator, a 4.32 xERA is still 0.17 runs better than Peterson’s best, while his pitch modeling is also closer to average (4.39 Bot ERA, 100 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 111 (21.4 K%, 117 Road)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.32
Similar, but better is what I’d describe Soriano as in relation to Peterson this year. It’s the only advantage the Angels have here, but at home, I’ll take them at a dog price F5, where I can throw out the pens.
Phillies @ Mariners
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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