Five games short plus whoever the Marlins decide is pitching. Also want to remind everyone again that since the trade deadline, a lot of these team stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. In some situations, I've pointed that out.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Cardinals @ Cubs
Eric Fedde’s Cardinals debut. Beware that all estimators are more than half a run above his 3.51 ERA, though only 4.06 SIERA hits four.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 1
B30: 4.01
Shocked! Shocked, I tell you, that Javier Assad has struck out just seven of his last 76 batters. He’s down to a 3.19 K/SwStr on the year (Bartolo Colon territory) and has a 1.57 K/SwStr over the last month.
Opp wRC+: 106 (94 Road)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.28
Royals @ Tigers
Still averaging 95.7 mph on the season, Cole Ragans hasn’t sat above 95 mph in any of his last five starts, over which he’s allowed 15 runs in 30.1 innings with a 19.8 K-BB% (21.2% season). Concern? Minor, but some. He’s thrown around as many innings as he has this year over each of the last two years.
Opp wRC+: 90 (21.1 K%, 63 L7 days)
DEF: 20.5
B30: 3.89
Seven innings with two runs or less in four of his last six starts, Tarik Skubal doesn’t have a single estimators reaching 2.90 with a 25.3 K-BB%. Both starters have well graded fastballs (PitchingBot) and are facing offenses barely inside the bottom third of the league against fastballs.
Opp wRC+: 97 (17.4 K%, 86 Road)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.42
Update 3:30 EST: Around 80 degrees with 5 mph wind out to right and late start potential.
Diamondbacks @ Pirates
Brandon Pfaadt still suffers the occasional stinker, as he did against the Pirates last time out (five runs, six innings), but even including that, he’s allowed just seven runs over his last 29.1 innings with a 23.4 K-BB% (17.2% season). All estimators are below his 3.92 ERA (68.6 LOB%), running as low as a 3.32 xERA, while PitchingBot grades on all three pitches he throws more than 10.5% of the time range from 58 to 65. All three are also pitches the Pirates struggle against.
Opp wRC+: 83 (24 K%)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 3.73
Luis L. Ortiz didn’t pitch that well in his last start against the Diamondbacks either (three runs, five inning) and has now struck out just six of his last 47 batters with five walks. However, a 17.5 K-BB% since cracking the rotation and 12.1% on the year. It’s rare that pitchers improve when moving from the bullpen to the rotation. It’s a blessing when they’re even able to hold their stuff. I don’t know what we have in Ortiz here, who has been favored by the BABIP gods since moving out of the pen.
Opp wRC+: 106 (20 K%, 106 Road, 175 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.54
As mentioned, I don’t know what to make of Ortiz, but have some confidence in Pfaadt and a lot more confidence that the D’Backs have the much better offense and defense. Will play -124 F5. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 4:30 EST: Upper 70s with wind 5 mph out to left. DeJesus leans hitter friendly. Chance of delay at least.
Brewers @ Nationals
Frankie Montas has allowed 16 runs over his last 16 innings with a 10.3 K-BB% that actually improves on his season rate (9%). He’s allowing 15.7% Barrels/BBE over his last five starts and has a 46.5% hard hit rate over his last six. LHBs exceed a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, about 100 points higher than RHBs. Good luck fixing that Milwaukee.
Opp wRC+: 95 (20.9 K%, 91 Home)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.21
After hitting a wall against a pair of inter-divisional road opponents, Jake Irvin has gotten back on track with four runs over his last 12.1 innings. A command over stuff guy, as his 95 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ marks confirm, Irvin has estimators all exceeding his 3.44 ERA by more than one-third of run, but less than four. The barrels (8.9%) can occasionally get out of hand, but I actually have the Nationals as the favorite here, just not enough to act on at this moment. Irvin also has a sizeable split, but about half of Montas.
Opp wRC+: 107 (101 Road)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.34
Update 5 EST: Some type of rain potential here, impact not clear. Near 90 degrees with a near double digit wind out to right center. Played over 9 (100).
Blue Jays @ Yankees
On the upswing, Kevin Gausman has allowed 11 runs over his last 28.2 innings. However, his 15.7 K-BB% over this span is a reduction on his season rate (16.5%) with a very similar hard contact rate (42%). Contact neutral estimators don’t reach four, but his xERA (4.84) is nearly half a run above his actual ERA (4.44) with 10.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s faced 26 batters in nine of his last 10, so Gausman is definitely at least pitching deep into games. More than six innings in just five of them. Ok, I give.
Opp wRC+: 124 (10.6 K-BB%, 16.2 HR/FB, 118 Home, 166 L7 days)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 5.10
Always at the mercy of the BABIP gods, Marcus Stroman didn’t strike out a single one of the 19 batters he faced at Fenway last time out and didn’t make it out of the fourth. Just a 7.2 K-BB% on the season, his ground ball rate has now fallen below 50% with just a 44.7% mark over his last five starts, Stroman still doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half with a 3.64 ERA (79.7 LOB%). He’s thrown five different pitches at least 10% of the time, none exceeding a 47 PitchingBot grade. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 14.5
B30: 3.65
Update on daily fantasy notes: I had planned to compose DFS notes for today, but spent a good portion of the morning on an important phone call and then far too long trying to figure out where DraftKings, who are taking a social media ass kicking for other reasons, are hiding the F5 lines (there don't appear to be any today).
Then I finally look at an 11 game daily fantasy slate and find Rotoginders' Kevin Roth leading with at least Yellow (risk of delay) on four of the eight non-protected environments tonight, including this Toronto/New York affair, which is the only one leading with Orange (risk of PPD) on the main slate. DFS notes hopefully to return Monday. Will try to update games with lineups/weather/umpires as they come out if notably different from expectations though.
Update 4:40 EST: Around 80 degrees with a light wind towards the left field pole. Everything seems to be on the table here weather wise.
Orioles @ Guardians
Dean Kremer can occasionally pop a strong start, but his 11.5% Barrels/BBE with a league average 13.7 K-BB% is a big reason the Orioles needed to go out and get pitching at the trade deadline. His 4.20 ERA is below estimators running as high as a 5.24 xERA. LHBs have a .338 wOBA, but .371 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 97 (19 K%, 108 Home, 81 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.60
Carlos Carrasco has four quality starts this season and he allowed three earned runs in two of them. His 12.7 K-BB% and 7.2% Barrels/BBE are otherwise better than most people probably expected. All estimators are more than a run below his 5.68 ERA (65.7 LOB%). LHBs are within three points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. With an 89 Stuff+ mark that works up to a competent 97 Pitching+, Carrasco doesn’t have a PitchingBot grade reaching 50.
Opp wRC+: 118 (20.4 K%, 117 Road, 154 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.55
Update 4:45 EST: Near 80 degrees, light wind in from center. Some chance of delay. Mayo debuts for O's. CLE just five LHBs against Kremer.
Giants @ Reds
Kyle Harrison (unconfirmed) has struck out 17 of his last 43 batters, but both starts were against the Rockies and he also walked five. Without a single offering exceeding a 50 PitchingBot grade, along with 90 Stuff+ and 92 Pitching+ marks, it’s tough to trust Harrison, especially outside San Francisco with just 10 of 28 barrels (9.9%) leaving the park. His 3.69 ERA is at least half a run below all non-FIP estimators.
Opp wRC+: 92 (92 Home, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.58
Eleven runs (nine earned) over Andrew Abbott’s last 14 innings and he’s still posting a .246 BABIP and 84.3 LOB% that generate estimators all more than half a run above his 3.38 ERA. In fact, with a 33.1% hard contact rate, the 3.92 xERA is also more than a run below all other estimators. Abbot’s 92 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ scores aren’t much better than Harrison’s.
Opp wRC+: 118 (96 Road, 132 L7 days)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.84
Both of these pitchers have estimators exceeding their ERAs, but Abbott by far more than Harrison. In fact, there’s no part of this game where I can find a certain Cincinnati edge. Even if we say pitching is a wash, the Giants have the far better offense and defense and maybe a better pen too. Even with Harrison not yet confirmed, I’ll take even money to have the Giants against Abbott here.
Update 3:55 EST: Mid- to-upper 70s with a 5 mph wind out to LC. Another late start potential, but hopefully nothing worse. Snell replacing Harrison drives the line up 7.26% (-134) from even money last night.
Marlins @ Braves
Looks like this is Vinny Bozo. What? Oh, Valente Bollozo, who threw five shutout innings at the Royals, striking out just two of 18 and then allowed five runs to the Red Sox, despite striking out eight of 23 with one walk. The 24 year-old has a 10.3 K-BB% in 34.2 AAA innings and was not among the top 29 Miami prospects in the Fangraphs report in June. His projections average much closer to five than four.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.6 K%, 105 Home, 123 L7 days) (inc. Thu)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.00
Spencer Swellenbach is making me a believer. He’s struck out 19 of his last 48 batters without a walk, creating a 21.3 K-BB% with just 5.0% Barrels/BBE through 10 starts. His worst estimator is a 3.64 dERA and every single pitch he throws grades 55 or higher on the PitchingBot 20-80 scale. The sweeper is the only one he throws more than 10% of the time with a grade below 60. His 107 Pitching+ is top 10 since his debut.
Opp wRC+: 87 (78 Road)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.18
Update 5:15 EST: Mid-80s w/ light wind across the field. Early rain potential. Tichenor calls a hitter friendly game. Just four LHBs against Schwellenbach, who has about a 60 point split.
Red Sox @ Rangers
Kutter Crawford has been serving up meatballs. Eight home runs (Yankees, Dodgers) on 11 barrels (28.9% with a 50% hard contact rate), following 14 shutout innings over the Royals and Yankees in the two starts before. Crawford is one of the few Boston pitchers still regularly utilizing the four-seam fastball and for good reason. It’s pretty good (34.1%, 0.5 RV/100, 61 PB grade) and it could work pretty well against the Rangers too (-0.46 wFA/C is fifth worst). We can look at the non-FIP estimators (22 HRs, 38 barrels) ranging from 3.91 SIERA to a 4.14 xFIP and say, okay, solid pitcher in a tough park, coming off a pair of tough opponents. A 106 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ with a 3.51 Bot ERA tells us something pretty good is still going on here.
Opp wRC+: 88 (19.9 K%, 97 Home, 73 L7 days)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.99
The good news is that Jose Urena (unconfirmed) has remained stretched out, throwing at least 60 pitches in each of his last two outings. The bad news is that the Rangers have had a reason for him to do so. An 8.2 K-BB% with a 49.8 GB% and 7.2% Barrels/BBE actually generates a pretty solid 3.78 xERA, but all other estimators are more than a run above his 3.07 ERA with RHBs exceeding a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Less than half of his 76.2 innings have come in a starting role and the sinker (39.1%, 1 RV/100, 50 PB grade) is his only offering exceeding a 41 PB grade with a 4.87 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 110 (113 Road, 151 L7 days)
DEF: 22.5
B30: 3.89
Update 4:15 EST: No confirmation, but would be shocked if roof weren't closed. No Garcia or Heim for Texas. Sogard debuts for Boston.
Rays @ Astros
Shane Baz has thrown two awful starts at the Yankees, one marginal one at the Rangers and a very good one last time out against the Reds. Take away the five walks and one strikeout two starts back in the Bronx (you can’t really though) and he’s struck out 18 of 67 with four walks. Overall, it’s an 11.8 K-BB% with 10.5% Barrels/BBE. His 53.6% hard hit rate has been at least 46.2% in each start. Pitch modeling might tell us more than estimators at this point, but actually, they don’t. Baz has a 117 Stuff+ working down to a 102 Pitching+, but 4.12 Bot ERA with a pair of 40 grade pitches, a 47 grade changeup (7.5%) and 64 grade fastball (46%, -2 RV/100). LHBs exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him so far, though Soto, Seager and Elly have taken a bunch of those PAs.
Opp wRC+: 108 (19.2 K%, 119 Home) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.74
I wouldn’t normally expect a team to tinker with a trade deadline acquisition too much before their first start because there just isn’t that much time. However, considering how much the Astros spent on Yusei Kikuchi, you have to believe they’ve already figured out what’s wrong and have a plan. He’s allowed 33 runs over his last 38.1 innings with a 24.6 K-BB% (20.1% season), but 12% Barrels/BBE (9.9% season) and a 48.1% hard contact rate (44.5% season). RHBs have a .354 wOBA against him over this stretch. Of course, the .398 BABIP and 60.4 LOB% over this span can’t be sustainable, but they still have to fix the hard contact issues. All that said, Kikuchi has 110 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ scores with a freaking 70 grade fastball (49.6%, -0.2 RV/100). The Rays, who have revamped their lineup somewhat, are a bottom half of the league offense against fastballs (-0.24 wFA/C). Even with the poor contact profile, Kikuchi’s 4.00 xERA is three-quarters of a run below his 4.75 ERA with contact neutral estimators below three and a half.
Opp wRC+: 117 (24.4 K% - remember that they subtracted key RHBs)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.83
Update 5:20 EST: Roof closed. Pitcher friendly Eddings behind the plate. Carlson bats second for Rays.
White Sox @ Twins
Austin Martin made nine forgettable starts for the big league club in 2022, but hasn’t been seen since. At least I don’t remember them. Add in some relief innings and 2.2 innings out of the pen this year and he has a 10.2 K-BB% over 66 career innings. He appears to have missed most of 2023 and a good chunk of 2024. My first guess is Tommy John surgery. Now 27 years old, I really don’t have much on him beyond that. He did run a 20.6 K-BB% at AAA in 20222 (53 innings).
Opp wRC+: 111 (21.2 K%, 123 Home)
DEF: -16.5
B30: 5.01
It’s 21 runs (19 earned) over Joe Ryan’s last 34.2 innings with a 25.7 k-BB% (23.3% season) and only five barrels (5.2%) with a 34.4% hard contact rate. This is absolutely about sequencing (55.6 LOB%) and I’d be very confident this works itself out. It’s not like his home run issues of the past. All estimators are more than a quarter of a run below Ryan’s 3.69 ERA, including a 2.84 xERA. Along with a 105 Pitching+ score, Ryan has a 67 grade fastball and 64 grade sweeper via PitchingBot, both pitches the White Sox are easily worst in the league against.
Opp wRC+: 72 (24.1 K%, 75 Home, 76 L7 days)
DEF: 15
B30: 3.88
Update 4:25 EST: Low 80s, near double digit wind blowing out somewhat towards the right field pole. Baldwin moves up CWS LU (2nd). No Kepler or Jeffers for MIN.
Mets @ Angels
Did Paul Blackburn even leave California? He makes his Mets debut against a familiar opponent. One he even faced in his first start back from a two and a half month IL stint last week, allowing four runs with more barrels (three) than strikeouts (two). In fact, Blackburn has allowed multiple barrels (14.3%) in five straight now. Season estimators are within about one-third of a run of his 4.41 ERA on the season. Pitch modeling wise, Blackburn throws a lot of pitches with a 4.33 Bot ERA and a 92 Stuff+ working up to a 101 Pitching+. RHBs have a .371 wOBA and .359 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 91 (incl. Thu)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.12
I’m going to lead with the changeup here. It’s very likely the reason that Tyler Anderson runs more than a run below all his estimators with a 2.96 ERA. It can’t produce a .234 BABIP or 82.6 LOB%, but it’s very good (37%, 1.7 RV/100, 61 PB grade) and it may not work here. The Mets are the second best offense against changeups this season (1.26 wCH/C) with Boston right behind them (1.19). Why do I mention that? Anderson had one of his worst starts of the season at Fenway. On the bright side, Anderson has recorded seventh inning outs in 11 of 21 starts this year.
Opp wRC+: 120 (117 Road)
DEF: -11.5
B30: 4.32
Update 6:20 EST: Upper 70s , light wind out to right-center. Angels add a fifth LHB (Guillorme) against Blackburn's reverse split.
Dodgers @ Athletics
Since his four hit shutout of the White Sox, Gavin Stone has allowed 13 runs in 18.2 innings with a 7.8 K-BB% and five home runs. The only good news is that he’s allowed just four barrels (5.5%), which is really the saving grace on his season (5.1% Barrels/BBE, 33.6% hard contact rate) with just an 11.6 K-BB%. Stone’s 3.34 ERA is still half a run below his 3.84 ERA, to say nothing of contact neutral estimators above four. The 79.8 LOB% is not sustainable and marginal pitch modeling (99 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 4.20 Bot ERA) does nothing to disrupt that notion. He’s fine. The contact profile, if he can sustain even that, might make him a slightly above average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.6 K%, 113 Home)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 4.28
Joey Estes’s 11.2 K-BB% isn’t much worse than Stone’s mark. He has an average contact profile, but just 6.0% Barrels/BBE with a 36.9% hard hit rate over his last five starts. The estimators are all over the place, due to a 23.2 GB% that plays much better in Oakland (12.6 IFFB%) than anywhere else, but that’s where this game is. There’s more than two runs between his 4.26 xERA and 6.46 dERA. LHBs have a .350 wOBA and .367 xwOBA against him, but Estes has a 106 Pitching+ that exceeds Stone by five points.
Opp wRC+: 116 (111 Road)
DEF: -21
B30: 3.72
Hear me out on this one. I’m not saying that Estes is better than Stone. In fact, I have the latter half a run better by weighted estimators. I’m not suggesting the Oakland pen is better than the Dodger pen at this point without Erceg or Miller and then including Dodger additions. I even swapped the bullpen estimators and still came up with the A’s (+138) being the play here. It’s probably because they smash the ball at home and didn’t trade away any key bats, while the Dodgers are down a few.
Update 6:40 EST: Near 70 degrees, light wind out to left center. Pitcher friendly Cuzzi behind the plate. Gain of 2.23% on OAK ML. Five LHBs against Estes.
Rockies @ Padres
Austin Gomber has allowed 40 runs over his last 50.1 innings with a 12.1 K-BB% tthat’s a point above his season rate, but 11.3% Barrels/BBE (10.5% season). The .349 BABIP and 61.3 LOB% deserve some regression, but he’s firmly in the below average camp with a 4.79 season ERA that’s within half a run of all estimators. RHBs are within two points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 101 (17.3 K%, 117 Home, 142 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.13
On the surface, Randy Vasquez has a 4.82 ERA with a 14.8 K% and it’s within one-third of a run of all estimators except a 5.97 xERA with 9.4% Barrels/BBE. LHBs exceed a .430 wOBA and xwOBA against him. However, every single pitch Vasquez throws (six of them more than 10% of the time) exceeds a 50 PitchingBot grade. That includes curveballs, cutters and changeups, which should be platoon breakers. He has a 3.95 Bot ERA and also a 106 Stuff+ mark that works down to a 100 Pitching+. There’s a disconnect somewhere. Or maybe he has it, but just hasn’t found it yet.
Opp wRC+: 83 (25.4 K%, 81 Road, 47 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.40
Update 6 EST: Low 70s. Light wind in from left. Vanover leans hitter friendly. Solano in for Arraez (7 RHBs). Adding SDP -140 F5.
Phillies @ Mariners
Last seen shutting out the Guardians on four hits, we now have a Tyler Phillips with a 1.80 ERA and no estimators reaching four through four starts. He’s walked just two of 89 batters, while striking out 19 (11.8 SwStr%), though just seven of his last 51. He’s allowed eight barrels (11.8%), but just a 35.3% hard contact rate. Now for the sobering part of it. Phillips is closer to 27 than 26 and is not a prospect of note. In 92 AAA innings this year, he’s posted a 10.4 K-BB%, 4.2% in 40.1 innings last year, and projections average more than four and a half runs per nine. Phillips has a 4.41 Bot ERA and 97 Stuff+ mark (99 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 95 (28.3 K%, 89 Home, 140 L7 days – Arozarena high K% v RHP, Turner below 20%) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.38
Bryan Woo has completed five innings in just one of his last five starts. Is he healthy? Velocity has been up and down all season, sitting at 94.3 mph last time out, below his season average and his previous three starts, which were all 94.9 mph or better on average. The 2.35 ERA is a bit fluky by contact neutral estimators, but he’s walked just 2.9% of batters with a barrel rate that’s even lower (2.5%) with just a 34.4% hard contact rate. That projects a 2.49 xERA. He still has the goods (104 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 2.83 Bot ERA), but we can never tell if he’s healthy and even then, he’s not likely to go much further than twice through the lineup.
Opp wRC+: 104 (101 Road)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.70
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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