Even just nine games can take upwards of five hours when you're taking the time to dig in on almost every pitcher. For a while I wasn't sure there'd be anything of value, but we finished strong and got there near the back end.
I'd probably rather a five game slate starting at 8:10 PM, rather than an eight game one starting nearly an hour and a half earlier (6:40 PM), but that's what we're dealt on Monday. Thankfully, the Phillies and Dodgers are fairly static in their lineups and are throwing a pair of pitchers we're probably not going to be attacking enthusiastically either. The only other lineups we have to worry about before a 6:40 lock time are the White Sox (don't care) and A's (who've also become fairly static recently). Daily fantasy notes will be dealt with in full in the early afternoon.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Mets @ Cardinals
This is the makeup game that nobody wants to play. The Mets are coming from Los Angeles and moving onto Colorado directly following this game. The Cardinals play the Sunday night game in Chicago before an early start to their home stand.
Sean Manaea followed up a pair of poor road starts with his best outing of the season last time out, striking out 11 of 24 Twins, allowing just a pair of hits over seven shutout innings with a 22.7 SwStr% that’s more than five points higher than any other game this season. He increased his four-seam usage (24.1%), even though the velocity was down on the pitch (91.9 mph). He elevated those pitches though and Minnesota only reached a 95 mph EV on one batted ball against him all game. By cumulative run value, Manaea’s sinker is the top pitch on the board (12 RV overall, 1.6 RV/100, 55 PB grade) and is more commonly his go to pitch (38.1%), but not one the Cardinals have had much trouble with (0.25 wSI/C is sixth best). What they do have trouble with is LHP in general though. Manaea’s 3.50 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.95 FIP to a 4.41 dERA with a .265 BABIP that’s more than 20 points below his career average and his best mark since before the pandemic, but he’s also completed seven innings in three of his last six starts after having failed to do so in any of his first 16.
Opp wRC+: 83 (20.1 K%, 7.8 HR/FB, 104 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.04
Andre Pallante was supposed to move back to the bullpen with the addition of Erick Fedde, but the Lance Lynn injury gains him a reprieve and maybe even gives the Cardinals an upgrade in that spot. Pallante has an 11.6 K-BB% as a starter that’s actually a two point improvement over his relief work, while maintaining a 60.8 GB%, allowing just 3.3% Barrels/BBE with a 32.7% hard contact rate. On the season, Pallante’s 4.04 ERA almost matches his 4.01 SIERA with all other estimators below four. A 90.2 Z-Contact% hasn’t hurt him with most of that contact on the ground. Pitch modeling doesn’t love Pallante (92 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+, 4.75 Bot ERA), though his best pitch is the four-seamer (49.1%, 0.3 RV/100, 51 PB grade), which he throws two and a half times as often as his sinker, despite all those ground balls. It matches up with the strength of the Mets, who feast on fastballs (0.55 wFA/C is second best), but struggle with sinkers (-0.18 wSI/C). Both of these pitchers have reverse splits with same-handed batters above a .350 wOBA against them, though slightly lower xwOBAs.
Opp wRC+: 111 (117 Road, 120 L7 days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 4.03
Update 2:50 EST: It's 96 degrees with a breeze out towards the left field pole. Scheurwater leans slightly hitter friendly. Pallante's ground balls won't make it out of the park though. Mets lean into reverse split with Winker sitting, but also Vientos with Tyrone Taylor batting second and Iglesias sixth. They both exceed a 110 wRC+ and .190 ISO against RHP this year though, and a 120 wRC+ L30 days. Can't complain too much.
Diamondbacks @ Guardians
Zac Gallen returned from the IL in late June throwing harder than before he went on it, but with underwhelming results. As his velocity has dropped own below 94 mph in each of his last three starts, he’s allowed just four runs over his last 17 innings, but only really looked strong for the first time in his last start against the Nationals, throwing six innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts and a single walk. A 15.6 K-BB% would be fine for most pitchers, but represents a nearly two point career low for Gallen and over three points by just strikeout rate alone. What’s helped him has been the lowest rate of barrels allowed since his rookie year (6.8%), despite a 44.4% hard hit rate. Gallen’s 3.56 ERA is below all non-FIP estimators (eight home runs, 18 barrels), with a 4.13 xERA the only one more than one-third of a run higher. Gallen’s pitch modeling metrics have declined as well. A 99 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ are merely league average, while a 4.65 Bot ERA is much worse The changeup and curveball still grade above 50, but make up only about 40% of his pitches this year with the rest not rising above a 45 PitchingBot grade. One positive for Gallen here is that the Guardians lean extremely left-handed and his reverse split has RHBs above 50 points higher by both wOBA and xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 97 (18.9 K%, 109 Home, 131 L7 days)
DEF: 15
B30: 3.86
While the Diamondbacks robbed us of having an all Logan Allen matchup, the Guardians seem to have robbed us of just having a good pitching matchup. Their Logan Allen had been banished to the minors a month ago, due to a 10.6 K-BB% with a terrible contact profile (11.1% Barrels/BBE, 46.1% hard hit rate) that created a 5.67 ERA without an estimators below four and a half. Allen doesn’t have a PitchingBot grade above 48, registering a 4.81 Bot ERA with 78 Stuff+ and 92 Pitching+ marks. Right-handed batters exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him. A 7.5 K-BB% and three home runs in 16.1 innings earns him the recall and start here against an offense that feasts on bad right-handed pitching.
Opp wRC+: 117 (20.7 K%, 107 Road, 164 L7 days)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.63
DFS Notes: An eight game slate includes a pair of protected environments, both nearly always closed with a couple of hot spots in Washington and Kansas City and only one spot (Wrigley) with a chance of delay. A pair of teams reach five implied runs with just three more above four and a half and five below four, essentially splitting the board in thirds. Pitching choices are difficult and I may be willing to pay down at the right price.
We start with temperatures in the low 80s and a light wind blowing in from around the left field pole in Cleveland, a negative run environment (94 Statcast three year run factor), which probably won’t play too much differently than that here. The Diamondbacks (4.42) and Guardians (4.08) are both middle of the field. Gallen is within $400 of $9K on either site in a low upside matchup. It’ll be interesting to see if the Guardians attempt to incorporate more RHBs against him. Gallen is probably fine, but with as much risk as upside on DK, where he’s $800 less than FD. I can’t understand why Logan Allen costs $8K. Ketel Marte (199 wRC+, .325 ISO v LHP, 214 wRC+ L30 days) is easily the top bat in this lineup, leading in all three categories among those projected. In fact, no other projected Arizona bat reaches a .200 ISO v LHP. Gurriel has a 140 wRC+, but is 23 points above his xwOBA. Bell (.194) and Gurriel (.181) are the only other bats above a .130 ISO v LHP. Suarez (191) and Bell (168) have crushed L30 days as well. Marte’s 134 road wRC+ leads the lineup as well. Cleveland’s seventh best pen estimators L30 days are less of a factor if Arizona has a lead. With neither Fry, nor Thomas being an above average bat against RHP, I’m not on any Cleveland bats here in a tough matchup for base stealing. Though the Arizona bullpen has the fifth best estimators in the league last 30 days, Martinez (38), Thompson (39) and Puk (21) have gone two of three, the latter two three of five and Sewald (24) two straight.
DFS Notes: CLE adds just a third RHB (Freeman) against Gallen's reverse split. Martinez sits.
Reds @ Marlins
Nick Martinez hasn’t actually started a game since May and averaged 24 batters faced in his five this year. He did face 16 Cubs on July 30th, throwing 53 pitches, so maybe twice through the lineup here, but don’t expect more than 70 pitches. Generally better in a bullpen role, where two thirds of his innings have come from this year, a 3.65 ERA with estimators ranging from a 3.15 xERA to a 4.17 dERA need to be taken with a grain of salt. The same for 101 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ grades. Either way, Martinez does not walk anyone (3.1%) and has done a fantastic job suppressing hard contact this year (28.9% with 4% Barrels/BBE).
Opp wRC+: 87 (6.1 BB%, 87 Home)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.70
Roddery Munoz has walked 11.1% of the batters he’s faced with a rate of barrels per batted ball that’s even higher (13.8%). He’s allowed just 19 home runs in 66 innings. Right-handed batters own a .436 wOBA against him, but batters from either side are between a .375 and .380 xwOBA. Munoz has one pitch exceeding a 40 PitchingBot grade (sinker 24.5%, 1 RV/100, 46 grade) without an estimator below five.
Opp wRC+: 91 (25.5 K%, 90 Road, 91 L7 days)
DEF: -6 (MIA has vastly improved defense with selloffs)
B30: 2.95 (but also maybe killed the bullpen)
DFS Notes: A generally neutral run environment (102 PRF) with the roof closed, the Reds (4.56) are a top third of the board offense tonight with the Marlins (3.94) third from the bottom. Munoz has had some decent starts and this is a decent spot for him, but he generally is too high risk and doesn’t pitch deep into games, even when he’s not being bombarded. Elly (141 wRC+, .257 ISO) is the only projected Cincinnati bat exceeding a 105 wRC+ v RHP this year and one of just three (Stephenson, Fraley) exceeding a 115 or even 85 wRC+ L30 days. Elly and Steer are the only projected Reds above a 105 wRC+ on the road. The Marlins still have the top estimators in baseball the last 30 days, but much of that pen is gone and what remains mostly worked Friday & Saturday with Sunday off. I don’t expect Nick Martinez to pitch deep enough to have enough value in a strong spot. The Reds have a middling pen behind him that’s fairly fresh. Edwards (155, .115) in the leadoff spot seems intriguing (186 wRC+ L30 days). Maybe Burger (115, .214, 189).
Update 3:30 EST: Jim Wolf leans slightly pitcher friendly.
Giants @ Nationals
With his five hit shutout of Oakland last time out, Logan Webb snapped out of a 15 run in 16 inning funk and posted his 11th quality start of at least seven innings with two earned runs or less. The 14.3 K-BB% is two points below his career average and lowest mark since the pandemic, but with the majority of his contact on the ground (57.5%), he’s avoided barrels (7.5%), despite a 90.2 Z-Contact% that’s led to a 47.5% hard contact rate. A 4.22 xERA is more than half a run above the rest of Webb’s estimators, a 2.91 FIP more than a quarter run lower because just seven of his 33 barrels have left the park. A park downgrade for him here may be significant in that regard. A 3.49 ERA is within one-third of a run of all other (contact neutral) estimators. Pitch modeling believes Webb still has the goods (111 Stuff+, 107 Pithicng+, 3.28 Bot ERA). The sweeper (21.7%) and changeup (32.6%) both exceed 60 PB grades, while the Nationals are bottom third of the league against both pitches.
Opp wRC+: 95 (20.8 K%, 92 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.81
Patrick Corbin has one solid pitch. It’s a cutter than he threw 44.1% of the time against the Padres and Reds in back to back quality starts before his last outing. The pitch’s 57 PitchingBot grade is more than 10 points higher than any of his other offerings. He threw just nine of them and gave up 11 runs in Arizona. Pitchers are such dumb animals sometimes. Corbin’s 5.84 xERA nearly matches his 5.88 ERA with a 47% hard hit rate that’s half a point better than Webb’s, but he could be a different pitcher with more cutters. Batters from either side are within five points of a .370 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: -9
B30: 4.49
DFS Notes: Close to 90 degrees with a near double digit wind out to left center, the Giants (5.04) are second from the top tonight with the Nationals (3.96) fifth from the bottom. Webb is currently my SP1 on DK. I originally had another, cheaper pitcher, but had too much salary left over. Let’s hope I don’t regret it. Six projected Nationals are at a 20 K% v RHP or better this year, but he goes deep into games and only three projected Nationals exceed a .115 ISO against RHP. Considering the weather and batters from either side between a .290 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him, I could see a hedge stack or two with Garcia (129 wRC+, .190 ISO v RHP), Yepez (125, .197), Abrams (111, .212) and maybe even putting with Call (239, .105 in a small sample). Bailey is the toughest catcher to run on and the Giants have upper half of the league pen estimators L30 days. Sure, Corbin could go back to the cutter and have some success, but I’m paying down for pitching for a reason and that’s to stack the two top offenses (Giants & Royals). I had a hard time cutting them off at four or five here. Bailey (75, .053) is the only projected Giant with more than 10 PAs against LHP below a 140 wRC+ or .150 ISO against them. Fitzgerald, Chapman, Schmitt and Canha all exceed a 130 wRC+ last 30 days (and in that order). There’s just so much value here. If Corbin shuts down this lineup in this environment with the cutter, then hats off. You can easily run on Corbin/Ruiz if necessary and Washington has the fifth worst pen estimators L30 days with Finnegan (29) and Law (31) going back to back days.
Update 3:50 EST: Ramos remains out. Yaz bats 9th. Played a weather over (9 -108).
Astros @ Rangers
Three straight quality starts with a total of three runs for Hunter Brown was snapped by the Pirates. He struck out eight of 27 with two walks, but two of his five hard hit batted balls were barrels, leading to five runs, four earned. It was the first time in 13 starts that Brown failed to complete six innings and only the third time he’d allowed more than two runs. A 19.4 K-BB% over that span has brought his season rate up to 16.4%, while generating a 26.9% hard contact rate with just 11 barrels (5.3%). Still working off a .333 BABIP and finally getting to the point where he’s now allowed more barrels (16) than home runs (15), Brown still has estimators (3.51 xERA – 3.94 FIP) below his 4.11 ERA. Those first eight starts were so bad. Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades of 103 and 102 are a bit ahead of the 4.33 Bot ERA, Brown throws six different pitches ranging from 42 to 58 PitchingBot grades. Right-handed batters have handled Brown 20 to 30 points of wOBA or xwOBA better than LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 89 (19.9 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.05
Andrew Heaney has allowed 10 runs over his last 9.1 innings with just a 13.6 K%. That’s three straight starts with a single digit SwStr% with velocities above his season average though. It seems as if his command isn’t as precise as it had been over a 39.2 inning stretch with a 22.1 K-BB% and just 13 runs allowed from the start of June up until two starts before the break. Heaney’s 4.12 season ERA is within a quarter run of all estimators, except for a 4.64 dERA. He doesn’t have the stuff he once had, but a 73 Stuff+ works all the way up to a 99 Pitching+. A 3.76 Bot ERA is supported by 50+ PB grades on all three of his pitches.
Opp wRC+: 107 (17.4 K%, 9.1 HR/FB, 97 Road, 73 L7 days)
DEF: 23.5
B30: 4.09
DFS Notes: An exactly 100 PRF with the roof closed (and it always is during the summer), both teams are smack middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs. Brown is too expensive ($9.6K) against such a contact prone team, even if they don’t exhibit a lot of prowess overall. The Astros strike out even less. Heaney costs just $6.4K on DK ($2K more on FD), but I think I have a better low priced option coming up. Despite Brown’s reverse split, Seager (154 wRC+, .255 ISO v RHP) is the only bat I’m interested and not even that much at a strong position tonight. He (167) and Semien (156 wRC+) are really the only two Rangers hitting the ball extremely well over the last month. You can run on this combo a bit and Langford actually has the top spring speed in the projected lineup. He’s one of four positive base runners overall, along with Semien and Smith. The Houston pen has bottom third of the league estimators L30 days (a surprise), but none of their top arms threw Saturday or Sunday. A reverse split for Heaney as well (LHBs .367 wOBA, .335 xwOBA, RHBs .295, .310), which means Alvarez (179, .216) is still the top bat here and one of just two projected Astros (Diaz being the other) exceeding a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Alvarez (198) and Altuve (112) are the only projected Astros above average on the road. The Rangers are one spot worse than the Astros in L30 day pen estimators. Yates, Robinson, LeClerc and Chafin all exceeded 30 pitches Saturday and/or Friday, but did not pitch Sunday.
Update 5:25 EST: Roof closed. HOU just the one lefty against Heaney's reverse split. TEX gets a fifth RHB in (Kelly) against Brown's reverse split.
Twins @ Cubs
David Festa has looked sharp since his first outing in Arizona, striking out 19 of his last 62 batters (13.1 SwStr%) with three walks. Unfortunately, all five of his barrels (12.8%) have gone out over this stretch. Oddly, three of his six home runs have come on the changeup, the only pitch that doesn’t have a big red blob right over the center of the plate in his heat maps. It’s also the pitch that PitchingBot thinks is his best (61 grade), though the fastball and slider receive above average grades too. Festa is the fourth best prospect in the Minnesota organization (Fangraphs) with a 50 Future Value grade.
Opp wRC+: 95 (93 Home)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 3.88
Kyle Hendricks has a 6.86 ERA that’s more than a run above all estimators and more than two runs above contact neutral ones (59.9 LOB%), but that doesn’t mean he’s been good. He’s struck out just 16.2% of batters faced, which makes the 7.1% Barrels/BBE play up and 17 of 20 have left the yard. Even with just a 33% hard hit rate, he has a 5.06 xERA. Pitch modeling is not terrible (96 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+) with only the fastball (13.1%, -2 RV/100, 28 PB grade) grading below average on the PitchingBot scale, but there’s got to be some reason that LHBs have a .391 wOBA and .369 xwOBA against him and he doesn’t throw enough four-seamers for it to be the sole cause.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 9
B30: 3.58
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a barely double digit wind in from left puts both offenses at exactly four implied runs. The Twins have been very cautious with Festa, but I think he can cover $6K here in a nice spot. He’s my favorite SP2 on DK. The only other real consideration in his price range might be Heaney against the Astros. A Minnesota pen with top third of the league estimators L30 days will be active around the sixth inning with Duran having thrown just six pitches since Wednesday. I’m off Cubs bats. On the other side, I like Minnesota LHBs, considering Hendricks’ split and that the wind is coming in from left, not right. Royce Lewis (183 wRC+, .434 ISO v RHP) and Byron Buxton (140, .258) would be the exceptions. Castro (118, .139), Wallner (189, .375) and Larnach (117, .195) should play well here. All except Castro exceed a 140 wRC+ L30 days. All are above average hitters on the road. Hendricks/Amaya can be run on, but the Cubs have top third of the league pen estimators L30 days too.
Update 5:10 EST: Tauchman in for Suzuki. Buxton out.
Red Sox @ Royals
In his first start back with Boston, James Paxton threw his sinker 11.2% of the time, only the second time he’s thrown it more than 10% in a game this season (3.5%). His four-seam usage was reduced to 47.2%. It’s 57% on the season, but below 47% in two of his last four with the Dodgers. Paxton did strike out five of 21 with only a single walk, but it was the Mariners with a 46.7% hard hit rate too. I don’t know that Bailey and the Red Sox can improve much on a pitcher who’s 4.52 ERA is still more than a quarter run below all of his estimators with a 73 Stuff+ grade (90 Pitching+) and 5.11 Bot ERA. Batters with the platoon advantage on Paxton have a .339 wOBA and .348 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 94 (17.7 K%, 6.2 BB%, 6.7 HR/FB, 107 Home, 123 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 5.02
Brady Singer has posted seven innings in three straight starts and five of his last seven, allowing 10 runs over 43 innings with a 14.3 K-BB% that’s a point below his season mark, but 5.8% Barrels/BBE and a 36.4% hard hit rate that’s brought his season hard contact rate below 40%. During this run, he’s faced the White Sox twice, the Cubs, these Red Sox, the Rockies, Rays and Marlins. That’s a schedule any pitcher would love. Singer has kept the ball on the ground 49.1% of the time this year, but an 81.6 LOB% is doing the heavy lifting for 2.88 ERA that’s at least three-quarters of a run below all estimators, capped off by a 4.45 xERA. Pitch modeling is not buying even that much into Singer with 85 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ marks and only the sinker (40.8%, 1.3 RV/100, 52 PB grade) rising above a 46 PitchingBot grade. Singer has also found nothing that works against LHBs (.369 wOBA, .375 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 111 (115 Road, 150 L7 days)
DEF: 24
B30: 3.74
It’s rare I’ll go for a total without a morning weather report, but Kansas City generally plays as a positive run environment, even if it suppresses power, especially in the hot summer months. Both of these pitchers are at least a bit fraudulent. The Royals hit well at home, even if they’ve struggled with power against LHP. The Red Sox hit better on the road this year and have been red hot with the bats. They can also exploit Singer’s issues with LHBs. The Royals have a great defense and have improved a decent pen. The Red Sox can say neither one of those things and have the third worst pen estimators over the last month. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: Low 90s with a near double digit wind out to left center only enhances my over play from last night and informs my Kansas City stack here too. A bit more expensive than Giants, I’m jamming Witt (151 wRC+, .221 ISO v LHP, 222 wRC+ L30 days), perhaps the top bat on the board. Paxton may make everyone except DeJong (49) and Blanco (79) look like All Stars and if he doesn’t, the Red Sox have the third worst pen estimators in baseball over the last month. Renfroe (109, .192, 162) is very interesting here. Left-handed Red Sox like Duran (154, .280, 176) and Devers (197, .376, 212) are top of the board bats here too. Hamilton is the only projected Boston bat below a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Abreu (145, .271, 185) and Yoshida (119, .101, 116) should play well here too. The Red Sox have the fourth highest run total on the board (4.67), which the Royals top (5.33). Singer/Perez are a nightmare to run on and an improved Kansas City pen does have top third of the league pen estimators L30 days with only Harvey (33) going back to back this weekend.
Update 4:15 EST: Half run gain on total. KC oddly playing Isbel & Massey against a lefty.
White Sox @ Athletics
Jonathan Cannon impressed out of the chute with 32.1 innings of a 3.34 ERA/3.20 FIP/3.57 xFIP with a 16.4 K-BB%. Staring with a disastrous one inning outing in Detroit, he’s generated a 4.78 ERA/5.32 FIP/5.32 xFIP over his last 37.2 innings with just a 3.8 K-BB%. Maintaining an average contact profile throughout, a 4.22 xERA is now the best of his estimators, while LHBs are up to a .364 wOBA and .347 xwOBA against him. A 93 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ on the season have been just 85 and 98 since that inning in Detroit, a span over which only his changeup (16.1%) exceeds a 50 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.6 K%, 112 Home)
DEF: -23.5
B30: 5.22
J.P. Sears followed up an eight run beating from the Astros with seven shutout innings of three hit ball with nine strikeouts (season high) in San Francisco. A 21.7 K-BB% over his last six starts, drives his season rate to a near league average 11.6%. Maintaining his 10% Barrels/BBE and 40.8% hard contact rate on the season through this run, Sears now has a 4.53 ERA that’s below, but within one-third of a run of all estimators except for that pesky dERA again (5.41). Right-handed batters still exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him, but just a .325 wOBA over these last six starts. Sears has matching 96 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades, but a more optimistic 3.83 Bot ERA, led by a 61 grade sweeper (29.2%, 0.6 RV/100). The White Sox are easily the worst offense in the league against sliders (-1.35 wSL/C), as they are against several pitches.
Opp wRC+: 82 (73 Road, 58 L7 days)
DEF: -19
B30: 3.80
The weather in Oakland doesn’t generally vary very much, so I feel comfortable playing the A’s to score more than 4.5 runs (+105) because they’ve punished the baseball at home. Canning has been trended downward and you find maybe the worst defense and bullpen in the league in White Sox uniforms now. This is one way to jump on the losing streak bandwagon without having to lay -170 with the A’s.
DFS Notes: Mid-60s with a light wind in from center is nothing too unexpected. The A’s (4.91) are still the third best offense on the board by team totals with the White Sox (3.59) second from the bottom. I’m using Sears ($8.6K) in my FD single entry and had on him DK too ($7.7K), until I had the $800 left over to pay up for Webb. No projected RHB for the White Sox exceeds an 81 wRC+ L30 days. Vargas has the best wRC+ (144) and ISO (.216) among those projected. Oakland, somehow, has top half of the league pen estimators L30 days, despite losing Miller and Erceg. Fergusen (40) and Adams (31) have worked two of the last three though. It appears it won’t be Cannon, but Ky Bush making his major league debut for the White Sox. In 19 innings at AAA, he has a 7.1 K-BB% and is merely their 14th ranked prospect (Fangraphs) with a 40 Future Value grade. What to do with Oakland bats against an unknown LHP? They’re still near the top of the board and the White Sox still have the worst defense and worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:45 EST: Despite the pitching change and flip to a LHP, the OAK run total has increased to 4.5 (-120) since last night.
Phillies @ Dodgers
While Aaron Nola has allowed just seven runs over his last 16.2 innings, he’s done so with a 9.3 K-BB%, dropping his season rate to 17.2%. He’s also allowed seven barrels (13.2%) with a 41.5% hard contact rate over this stretch. The good news would probably be that his velocity has increased more than half a mph during this span, easing any confirms of fatigue. On the season, Nola’s 3.43 ERA is very much in line with estimators ranging from a 3.49 xFIP to a 3.86 FIP, though maybe the latter doesn’t apply so much in road starts with more home runs (12) than barrels (11) at home this year. Nola has a 63 grade sinker (21%) and 70 grade curve (32.2%) without any other PitchingBot grades reaching 50. A 104 Stuff+ nearly matches a 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 115 (123 Home)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.60
Striking out eight of 27 Padres over seven innings in his most recent start gives me confidence that Tyler Glasnow is healthy. He hit a career high in innings pitched in that start, so it’s further encouraging that the Dodgers let him throw 102 pitches there. Glasnow has a higher ERA than Nola (3.50), but without a single estimator reaching three behind a 25.6 K-BB% and roughly similar league average contact profile. In comparison, Glasnow has superior 119 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 103 (100 Road)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.99
Glasnow is a clear true Ace compared to Nola’s strong number two on a really good team. I have the former over half a run better by my weighted estimators. Add in that the Dodgers have the better offense as well AND are at home and I don’t see why this line is all that close to even, especially over the first five (-124). If it makes a difference, the Dodgers have the better base running team too.
DFS Notes: It’s near 80 with a near double digit wind out to center, which is about as hitter friendly as it gets in Dodgertown. That said, we’re still looking at a pair of bottom four team totals tonight with the Phillies (3.55) currently below the White Sox. Glasnow is probably the top pitcher on the board and it’s not an impossible spot, but one I don’t want to pay more than $10K for either. Nola is much cheaper on DK ($8.8K), where he’s a reasonable option. Matchup proof Shohei (205 wRC+, .383 ISO v RHP) is still one of the top bats on the board. Surprising to find the Phillies with the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days, while the Dodgers have improved to middle of the league over the same span.
Update 6:25 EST: No lineups, but closing shop on Monday. A 3.82% gain on LAD F5, despite no movement in the full game moneyline.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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