So, obviously, I was able to get in a Thursday post, but I'm still dealing with One Drive, who have now passed me off to Office support, claiming that my daily pitching file may be too large. I was able to navigate enough to make it work for Thursday's 12 games (though not as detailed as usual on some), but may not be able to update further.
Stats are through Tuesday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open @ mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Rockies @ Reds
Austin Gomber has a 13.2 K% and 6.5 SwStr% over his last seven starts, but on the season, the fastball (41.3%, -0.3 RV/100, 44 PB grade) is his only below average pitch via PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 94 (83 Home)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.59
A 23.3 K-BB% for Hunter Greene over his last five and down to a 3.14 xERA with just 4.9% Barrels/BBE and a 33.8% hard hit rate this year. Greene (fastball 55.9%, 0.8 RV/100, 58 PB grade) is facing the fifth worst offense against fastballs (-0.51 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 79 (25.2 K%, 7.4 HR/FB, 79 Road, 76 L7 days)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.69
Update 11:40 EST: 85 degrees with virtually no wind. Barksdale behind the plate has a slight hitter's lean. Elly, Blackmon, Diaz are all out. Still have a slight lean towards CIN team o4.5 (-128), but not acting on it. COL going five LHBs against Greene's 24 point wOBA and 51 point xwOBA reverse split this year.
Guardians @ Tigers
All of Spencer Howard’s non-FIP estimators exceed four and a half, while RHBs are well above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs well below .300. Considering all that, you probably want him pitching against Cleveland, not for them.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24 K%, 132 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.95
Jack Flaherty’s velocity bounced back up to his season average last time out (93.5 mph) and he struck out at least seven for the second straight starts, but the Angels also clobbered three home runs and barrels (17.6%), which constitutes 20% of his barrels this year.
Opp wRC+: 104 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.70
Update 12 EST: Could reach 80 degrees with a near wind out to to left-center. Neutral umpire. Brennan in for J.Naylor. Slight line movement towards Cleveland anyway.
Nationals @ Mets
Four starts with at least four runs (only two unearned) in Mackenzie Gore’s last seven starts with a total of four (one unearned) in the other three combined. The Mets were his first bad one, but also his last good one. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in three of the four bad ones. He’s walked three with 25 strikeouts in the other three.
Opp wRC+: 124 (20.9 K%)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.68
David Peterson has allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his seven starts, but his best estimator is a 4.58 xFIP exactly a run above his ERA (80.5 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 78 (20.8 K%, 129 L7 days)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.93
Update 12:10 EST: Upper 80s, 15 mph wind out to left-center. Near neutral umpire (very slight hitter favorability). Winker and McNeil add an extra LHB for each lineup. Both pitchers have reverse splits this year that are mostly nullified by Statcast (xwOBA). Both backup catchers in.
Pirates @ Brewers
Don’t worry about Paul Skenes (28.4 K-BB%) being homer prone. Seven of his nine barrels (6.4%) have left the park. However, the Brewers do extremely well against every pitch type he throws.
Opp wRC+: 111 (115 Home)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.44
Aaron Civale’s first start as a Brewer was against the Dodgers. Four runs, but he tied a season high with eight strikeouts for the fourth time. Nineteen of his 21 barrels have left the yard with a 4.96 FIP that nearly matches his 5.18 ERA, but all other estimators nearly a run or more below (15.4 K-BB%).
Opp wRC+: 86 (24.6 K%, 137 L7 days)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.41
Update 1:15 EST: Roof open. Around 75 degrees. Increases run environment from 96 to 98 on average. Umpire (Baker) slight hitter lean. Six LHBs for both teams. No Hoskins or Chourio. Skenes no wOBA split, but 40 point xwOBA one. Civale 27 point wOBA split, just 7 point xwOBA.
Blue Jays @ Giants
Kevin Gausman struck out 10 Mariners last time out, tying a season high for the third time in nine starts. An 18.2 K-BB% over this span has brought his season rate up to 17.6%, but in the six games he hasn’t struck out 10, he’s allowed a total of 26 runs. The splitter (31.8%, -0.4 RV/100, 55 PB grade) and fastball (50.2%, -0.4 RV/100, 66 PB grade) are still strong by grade, not by results. His 98 Stuff+ works up to a 106 Pitching+, the latter, in line with last year even if the former is a bit lower.
Opp wRC+: 98 (107 Home, 77 L7 days)
DEF: 17
B30: 4.11
At least three runs in no more than five innings in four of Jordan Hicks’ last five starts. He’s thrown nearly 50% more innings this year than he has either of the last two seasons. His 107 Stuff+ works down to a 100 Pitching+. Hicks no longer has a single estimator below four (3.47 ERA).
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.3 K%, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.61
Update 1:40 EST: Low 70s in SF is like a heat wave (or are they calling it a dome these days?). Bill Miller the pitcher friendliest umpire behind the plate. His strike zone was an absolute adventure last time out. Everything within a foot of the LHB box was a strike. Both pitchers have a normal split, Hicks a bit larger this year. However, we have just a combined six LHBs with Flores in for Wade, Varsho was hurt last night. Schneider also in for Bichette. Line movement towards the home team.
Dodgers @ Phillies
Landon Knack has gone beyond five innings just once and allowed more than two runs for the first time last time out. Estimators range from a 4.12 SIERA to a 4.96 FIP (15.8 K-BB%, 11.3% Barrels/BBE, 48.5% hard hit rate). His top two pitches exceed a 50 PB grade with 101 Pitching+ and 99 Stuff+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 109 (118 Home)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.50
Four straight quality starts for Aaron Nola since his Fenway blowup, but three of them of the three run less than seven inning variety. He does have a 28.6 K-BB% since then, bringing his season rate up to 18.2% though. All estimators are now within one-third of a run of his 3.48 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 116 (119 Road)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 2.87
Update 3:20 EST: Upper 80s. 10 mph wind out to RF. Fairly neutral ump (O'Nora). F5 line movement towards PHI.
Cubs @ Orioles
Six straight quality starts for Justin Steele with a 21.1 K-BB%, just five barrels, a 32.7% hard contact rate and more than six innings four times in that span.
Opp wRC+: 124 (16.7 HR/FB, 119 Home)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.17
Albert Suarez has a 7.5 K-BB% and 83 LOB% in eight starts since returning to the rotation, but also just seven barrels (5.6%) and a 34.9% hard hit rate.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.79
Update 5:15 EST: Mid-uppper-80s. Little wind. Bellinger out.
Yankees @ Rays
Nestor Cortes has just one quality start on the road and it was seven innings with two strikeouts in Kansas City. He has eight at home. He has a 24.1 K-BB% at home and 13.7% on the road. His HR/FB rate has doubled (6.7 to 13.8) on the road with a significant increase in hard contact too.
Opp wRC+: 113 (24.9 K%)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 4.02
Shane Baz struck out six of 25 Rangers without a barrel and a single walk in his first major league start in almost exactly two years. He also had just an 8.7 SwStr%, while half his contact reached a 95 mph EV with only 27.8% of it on the ground. His velocity was in line with previous seasons and PitchingBot liked the fastball (52.2%, 54 grade), but hated everything else. A 113 Stuff+ mark dropped down to a 99 Pitching+. He walked 12.9% in 39.1 AAA innings this year.
Opp wRC+: 120 (115 Road)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.95
Update 3:50 EST: Domed, negative run environment (94), but hitter friendly umpire (Moscosco).
Athletics @ Red Sox
Fourteen of Luis Medina’s 18 runs have come in just three of his seven starts. He’s shut down Atlanta, Kansas City, Arizona and Baltimore, but not because he’s pitching well (4.5 K-BB%). It’s because just two of seven barrels (6.2%) have left the yard. Give him credit for holding a 4.21 xERA that’s lower than his 4.37 ERA, while all contact non-inclusive estimators (SIERA/xFIP) are more than a full run above. Also have to note that he doesn’t have a single PItchingBot grade above 45, but does have a 105 Stuff+ mark…which works down to a 96 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 106 (96 Home)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.79
Tanner Houck has allowed 20 runs (15 earned) over his last 26 innings with just an 11.8 K-BB%, nine barrels (10.3%) and a 48.3% hard contact rate. Could we be looking at fatigue for a pitcher who has already hit his career high in innings pitched? It’s not showing in his velocity, but his SwStr (9%), Zone (47.8%) and Z-Contact (90.9%) are all worse during this period.
Opp wRC+: 93 (86 Road, 145 L7 days)
DEF: -7
B30: 4.00
I think this is a good spot to take a shot with the A’s (though my record with big dogs hasn’t been good lately). Houck may be tiring, while the Red Sox have not hit well at home this year and the A’s are hitting well at the moment. It’s not like the Red Sox have a much better defense and the Oakland pen is tricky. When they’re ahead, they have some capable arms (mostly Miller, but Erceg too) to close it out. It’s just everyone else who mostly sucks.
Update 4 EST: Mid-80s, double digit wind out to left-center. Neutral ump. Oakland A-holes sit Soderstrom and Langeliers. Still, 0.47% gain on OAK, though F5 moved towards BOS. Adding o9.5 (-122).
Marlins @ Astros
Roddery Munoz worked four innings behind three from Bryan Hoeing last time out. It didn’t work. An 8.2 K-BB% with 13.1% Barrels/BBE and not a single PitchingBot grade exceeding 41 over 44.1 innings. He is not a major league starter.
Opp wRC+: 112 (18.9 K%, 125 Home)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.34
Now 23 year old Jake Bloss is Houston’s second rated prospect (Fangraphs) with a 50 Future Value grade and a recent scouting report giving him mid-rotation potential. He has the chance to have three above average pitches (fastball, slider, curve) with questionable command. He’d only had eight starts at AA (80.2 innings as a pro since last year’s draft overall), his first stop with a single digit walk rate (7.9%) and one more at AAA (four innings) since his original call up and start on June 2ast. It does all seem a bit rushed, but Houston is desperate with so many pitching injuries. Projection systems have him a bit above four and a half after that first start, which is about how he performed in that game, which is really tough to judge after facing 18 Orioles. All three pitches he threw more than seven times had above average PitchingBot grades with a 100 Stuff+ mark (103 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 81 (68 Home)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.72
Update 4:50 EST: 4 LHBs for HOU. Alavarez isn't one of them.
Mariners @ Angels
Luis Castillo struck out eight Blue Jays over 6.2 innings with only a single run and two hits allowed last time out. It was the second time in six starts he’d struck out more than four. His fastball velocity (95.8 mph) was at its highest mark since May. The arsenal is slightly less impressive this year with PitchingBot grades ranging from 48 to 56 with 101 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ marks. All estimators are above his 3.72 ERA, but below four.
Opp wRC+: 91 (49 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.75
Twenty-three year old Jack Kochanowicz is a 40 Future Grade prospect (Fangraphs), who is projected as a back-end starter, who secondaries better than a beatable fastball. He’s made 16 AA starts each of the last two years (10.6 K-BB%, 14.2 K-BB%), but none above. Only Steamer is even projecting him for a 4.75 ERA and 4.85 FIP.
Opp wRC+: 95 (28.8 K%)
DEF: -15
B30: 4.53
Braves @ Diamondbacks
Max Fried is having the oddest and most difficult to read walk year. He has a 16.7 K% (9.5 K-BB%) in five starts since striking out 13 Red Sox, though the contact profile remains as elite as ever. Now with just a 13.7 K-BB% again, 58.6 GB% (53.2% L5), 5.1% Barrels/BBE and 32.6% hard contact rate, estimators ranging from a 3.20 dERA to a 3.71 xERA are just a bit above his 3.18 ERA. A slightly different story is told with 96 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ grades believing he’s around average, along with a 4.06 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 118 (20.6 K%, 104 Home)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 2.90
Arizona has to officially name their starter for this to be the coveted Fried Pfaadt matchup, but Brandon has allowed two runs over his last 10.1 innings, striking out 14 of 44 batters with just two walks before leaving his last start early after being hit with a batted ball. With a 16.6 K-BB% and more average contact profile (6.9% Barrels/BBE, 40.1% hard hit rate), estimators ranging from a 3.51 xERA to a 3.85 SIERA are all below his 4.19 ERA (68.8 LOB%). The sweeper (28.5%) and fastball (35%) both exceed 60 PitchingBot grades with the sinker (21%) at 56. Pfaadt has better Stuff+ (106) and Pitching+ (106) scores than Fried.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.3 K%, 90 Road)
DEF: 19
B30: 4.37
If I were sure Pfaadt were pitching, I’d go higher than a unit here. His estimators are only slightly worse than Fried and better over the last month, while the home team has the better offense through more than half a season, especially when they’re facing LHP and the Braves are facing RHP. Massive defensive edge to Arizona too. There is no F5 line yet, but I may add another half a unit if Pfaadt is confirmed because the Braves do have a substantial bullpen edge, but I think Arizona should be the favorite here.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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