Still having file issues, but almost every starter was confirmed early in the afternoon, so here's a full 15 game post for Saturday, my last until after the break.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Dodgers @ Tigers
Twenty-three year-old Justin Wrobleski is the 11th ranked prospect in the Dodger system with a 45 Future Value grade, according to Fangraphs. In a pre-season scouting report, it was suggested that continuing velocity increases since his 2021 TJS could catapult him into the Top 100, should they sustain. That does appear to be the case, averaging 94.7 mph at AAA this year and even a bit more (95.2) with the adrenaline of his MLB debut, in which Wrobleski fanned four of 19 Brewers with a 10.5 SwStr%, but also a pair of walks and a 53.8% hard contact rate with two of his three barrels (23.1%) and six fly balls leaving the yard. Just two starts at AAA (32.6 K-BB%) after 13 at AA (18.2%) this season, over which he allowed five home runs, have the Dodgers not necessarily thinking he’s ready to go at the major league level, but a necessity, due to injuries and under-performance. Major projection systems average out around four and a half for him. PitchingBot loved the fastball he threw 43 times in his debut (65 PB grade) with the cutter (51) and slider (45) grading more marginally, resulting in a 3.17 Bot ERA. The Stuff+ model was more enamored with his command (110 Pitching+) than the pure arsenal itself (86 Stuff+). Wrobleski has posted single digit walk rates at every stop above low A-ball.
Opp wRC+: 86 (21.2 K%, 97 Home, 141 L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.53
Keider Montero has posted a respectable 14.9 K-BB% over 21.1 innings with a league average contact profile (38.3 Hard%, 8.3% Barrels/BBE) against stiff competition, which includes Pittsburgh, but then Philadelphia, Minnesota and Cleveland. Montero has posted no lower than a 9.6 SwStr% in any of these starts with a positive PitchingBot grade on the fastball (44.6%, 0.1 RV/100, 58 PB grade) and slightly negative one on the slider (32.9%, 1.5 RV/100, 47 PB grade), resulting in a 4.21 BotERA to go along with 97 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ marks. With four of his five barrels turning into home runs, all non-FIP estimators are currently more than one-quarter run below his 4.64 ERA, falling as low as a 3.94 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 116 (117 Road, 117 L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.88
Wrobleski could be a good one, but we have a bit more information on Montero at the major league level, who has exhibited average-ish tendencies. While a major offensive edge for the Dodgers was to be expected, the Tigers have been closing that gap recently and I believe their numbers against LHP to be slightly undervaluing them, though they do put their best hitter (Greene) at a disadvantage. The real surprise here is that the Dodgers have the second worst bullpen estimators in baseball L30 days with the Tigers more of a middling bunch. Using Wrobleski’s projections actually makes the Tigers a very small home favorite for me. Small shot on the home team (+126). No F5 line yet, but that’s not our concern anyway with the bullpen Detroit’s biggest advantage here. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Pirates @ White Sox
Luis L. Ortiz has gone at least four innings in four of his last five outings, two of his last three being starts. The majority of his outings have been two innings or more this season, so we shouldn’t have to regress his overall numbers that much for his move to the rotation. That’s a good thing because a 13.5 K-BB% with 9.5% Barrels/BBE might not stand up otherwise. However, his K-BB has actually spiked in 30.1 innings since the start of June (21.8%), though the contact profile has remained intact. Ortiz has held his velocity from earlier in the season over this span with little in the way of altering pitch usage, aside from cutters and four-seamers replacing a few sinkers. Ortiz has actually increased his Pitching+ mark over this span (105 vs 100 on the season) with all four pitches scoring 52 or better PitchingBot grades.
Opp wRC+: 76 (74 Home, 69 L7 days)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.51
I see little reason to expand on Chris Flexen, despite three quality starts over his last four. He’s still allowed 13 runs (10 earned) over 23.2 innings with a 7.9 K-BB% that’s even lower than his full season mark (8.5%). All estimators above four and a half and within half a run of his 4.95 ERA, while his His 53 Stuff+ grade is worst among pitchers with at least 90, 24 points behind Patrick Corbin. Only Corbin and Marcus Stroman fall below Flexen’s 94 Pitching+ score.
Opp wRC+: 85 (24.5 K%, 87 Road, 120 L7 days)
DEF: 18.5
B30: 3.80
Cubs @ Cardinals
The only unconfirmed starting pitcher for Saturday at this point is Game One for this double-header, but Hayden Wesneski has been projected by some on the Twitter machine. Of his 56.1 innings, 31.2 have come in a starting role, including his last 15.1 and 60 batters faced. Sixteen strikeouts and an 18.3 K-BB% over that span (Giants, Angels, Phillies). A bit of a home run problem overall with 10 of 15 barrels (9.5%) leaving the yard and a 3.67 ERA more than a quarter run below all estimators, more so the contact inclusive ones. A .216 BABIP and 79.6 LOB% are far from sustainable. Of pitches he’s thrown more than 19 times this year, only the fastball (36.9%, 0.3 RV/100, 47 PB grade) falls below a 52 PitchingBot grade (3.51 Bot ERA), including a 64 grade sweeper (40.3%, 1.1 RV/100) the Cardinals may have issues with (-0.21 wSL/C). However, a 91 Stuff+ score that works up only to a 98 Pitching+ appears less optimistic.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 2
B30: 4.06
On July 5th, I expressed my exasperation that Lance Lynn’s fastball was the most valuable pitch in baseball with a Run Value of 14 in a tweet. Thankfully, he went right out the next day and got shelled by the Nationals (11 runs) dropping the run value on his fastball to 10 overall (1.4 RV/100, 53 PB grade). Still a quality pitch, but Lynn’s only one above average, according to PitchingBot, along with 84 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ marks. With a reduction in K-BB from 15.3% to 12.7% this season, the biggest difference is that just 13 of his 27 barrels (9.7%) have turned into home runs this year, as compared to 44 of 56 (10.4%) in less pitcher friendly parks last year. All estimators are within half a run of his 4.48 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.4 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.20
Athletics @ Phillies
Mitch Spence has actually acquitted himself quite well in a starting role, with no reduction in his 14.5 K-BB% in 54.1 innings, although his contact profile has suffered a bit (10.3% Barrels/BBE, 46.3% hard hit rate). All season estimators are still below four and around half a run below his 4.29 ERA (69.4 LOB%), presenting league average 99 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ scores. The slider (36%, 0.5 RV/100, 65 PB grade) is the start of this show, though the Phillies don’t have a singular pitch weakness, posting above average run values against everything, especially the sinker (0.64 wSI/C is second best), which Spence (12.2%, -0.1 RV/100, 36 PB grade) may want to shelve against them.
Opp wRC+: 110 (119 Home)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.47
Tyler Phillips threw his first four major league innings in relief on the seventh of July, striking out seven of the 15 Braves he faced (17 SwStr%) without a walk, but with two barrels and six hard hit batted balls (62.5%). That’ll still play. Unfortunately, already on the wrong side of 26 years-old, Phillips was barely even mentioned in Fangraphs’ January report on the system and not even given a Future Value grade. In 15 starts at AAA (92 IP), he posted a mere 10.4 K-BB% and has shown nothing in his professional career to suggest that bat missing outburst against the Braves could be for real. He’s pitched fairly deep into most minor league affairs this season, posting more than seven strikeouts just one time and peaked at a 27.7 K% in AA for Texas back in 2021 in only 15.1 innings. Nearly all season projections are on the wrong side of four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 92 (27 K%, 84 Road, 122 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.01
Yankees @ Orioles
After making some mechanical adjustments before his last start, Luis Gil struck out nine of 23 Red Sox, allowing four hits with no walks, following a 14.2 inning run, which really started with the same Red Sox and followed with these Orioles (seven of 15 batters scored with a single strikeout), over which he walked more batters (13) than he struck out (12). We were always expecting regression for Gil, who’s 3.27 ERA is in line with a 3.33 xERA now, but still more than half a run below all contact neutral estimators, considering his 12.2% walk rate. The lack of walks was probably more impressive than the nine strikeouts last time out. Gil had just a 45.8 Zone%, resulting in a 9.7 SwStr% and 20.7% chase rate during his rut, rebounding with rates around or even better than his season numbers last time out. Gil’s 111 Stuff+ grade, drops down to a 101 Pitching+ on the season.
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.3 K%, 117 Home)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 3.81
Grayson Rodriguez seems to have overcome similar command issues, posting a 10.4 BB% over his first eight starts, down to 4.6% over his last eight (21.6 K-BB%) with four of his 10 walks over this span coming in one start in Seattle. Grayson’s pitch modeling metrics are stellar with a 117 Stuff+ mark and 106 Pitching+, while all of his PitchingBot grades are 57 or better (2.91 Bot ERA). All season estimators are within half a run of his 3.52 ERA with only the complicated 3.92 dERA range outside a one-fifth run range. These numbers drop below his season ERA over his last eight starts. The best way to attack the Yankees is with changeups (-0.61 wCH/C is fourth worst) and Rodriguez has a terrific one (20.5%, 2.1 RV/100, 37.8 Whiff%, 63 PB grade. It’s probably his best pitch. RHBs are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Gray Rod on the season, but below a .300 wOBA since May 28th.
Opp wRC+: 119 (114 Road, 89 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.86
Royals @ Red Sox
Seth Lugo is in serious consideration to start the All-Star game, which is great because this ride isn’t going to last forever. While he’s three outs shy of completing six innings in every start this year, he’s gotten there with an 84.9 LOB% and just 10 of his 26 barrels (7.6%) leaving the park, while a 16.6 K-BB% is unable to support a 2.21 ERA. A 3.29 FIP is Lugo’s only estimator not more than a run and a half higher. PitchingBot sees only the curveball (17.5%, 3 RV/100, 56 PB grade) as an above average pitch, while the fastball (24.5%, 2 RV/100, 48 PB grade) is sitting on a .236 wOBA, but .334 xwOBA. A 97 Stuff+ works up to a 100 Pitching+. Any way you look at it, significant regression is coming.
Opp wRC+: 106 (97 Home, 119 L7 days)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 4.14
Kutter Crawford has allowed one single run over his last 14.1 innings, after having allowed 29 (23 earned) over his previous 34.2 innings, despite a 19.2 K-BB% that’s actually an improvement over his 17.9% season rate over that span. The problem was the 14.3% Barrels/BBE with four more (12.1%) over his last two starts, bringing his season rate up to 9.2%. Despite the contact profile issues, all estimators fit in a tight range from a 3.80 SIERA to a 4.00 xFIP. All quite a bit above a 3.20 ERA because 26% of his runs have been unearned. Pitch modeling works in Crawford’s favor here. Aside from 107 Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores, his top two pitches (cutter 30.9%, 1.1 RV/100, 59 PB grade/fastball 34.2%, 0.7 RV/100, 60 PB grade) match up with the only two pitches the Royals are not above average against (-0.56 wFC/C is sixth worst, -0.58 wFA/C is fourth worst).
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.8 K%, 82 Road, 107 L7 days)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.96
Rockies @ Mets
Ryan Feltner has allowed 21 runs over his last 35 innings, though only 14 of them have been earned with a 15.4 K-BB% (13.1% season). Pitchers are not absolved of all blame from unearned runs, but it’s difficult to know which ones or how many. That’s why estimators work much better and Feltner’s 4.00 xFIP to 4.14 SIERA range scream solid pitcher, while his 5.29 ERA (even despite all those unearned runs) does not because he’s stranded only 59.3% of his runners. Some pitchers have trouble with men on base, but not to this extent. Feltner throws three pitches more than 14% of the time and all three exceed 50 PitchingBot grades (4.33 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+). Feltner’s 70 point wOBA, 47 xwOBA point split should help him out in this spot, since the Mets generally only utilize three LHBs, a fourth if D.J. Stewart plays, but he’s been of little consequence for quite a while now.
Opp wRC+: 108 (110 Home, 122 L7 days)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.53
Since striking out 14 of his first 50 major league batters, Christian Scott has struck out just 16 of his last 105 with a 7.9 SwStr%. His Zone rate has actually increased (57.8%), but he has trouble commanding his sweeper/slider, making the pitch uncompetitive too often, resulting in a 19.7 O-Swing% over this span. Down to a 13.5 K-BB% with an average contact profile, all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.15 ERA. Even with the slider/sweeper issues (46 PB grade), the fastball (52.7%, 0.5 RV/100, 59 PB grade) should work here, as the Rockies are a bottom five offense (-0.55 wFA/C) against heaters.
Opp wRC+: 79 (25.4 K%, 80 Road, 83 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.90
The Mets have a massive offensive edge here, but a large defensive deficit, while starting pitching is a wash (the Mets are also one of the worst base running teams in the league). While they’re more than half a run ahead of Colorado’s pen estimators L30 days, it’s hard to call this Mets pen better than anyone recently. Still, I’d like to see an F5 line before I likely side with the road team (currently +195) here. Update: Played the Rockies +180 (F5) just before posting.
Guardians @ Rays
Gavin Williams has faced 21 batters in each of his first two starts, the first one went poorly against the White Sox, but the more recent much better in Detroit. The team has stated that he’s throwing a harder slider this year, which is being picked up as a cutter by Statcast. It’s his worst graded pitch so far either way (23.9%, 40 PB grade), while the fastball (52.1%, 57 PB grade) and curveball (22.1%, 64 PB grade) appear superior upon early returns. His 90 Stuff+ works up to a 99 Pitching+ with a 3.99 Bot ERA through a pair of starts. It probably wouldn’t be helpful to go through estimators, but his 9.5 K-BB% is a bit lower than last year’s marginal mark (12.8%).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 7
B30: 4.16
Nobody does more with less than Zack Littell and what I mean by that is an 82 Stuff+ score morphs into a 100 Pitching+. A 68 grade splitter (22.8%, -1.3 RV/100) is his only above average PitchingBot grade. Yet he’s turned that into an 18 K-BB% with all estimators below a 4.44 ERA. Unfortunately, he has allowed 9.3% Barrels/BBE, resulting in a 4.27 xERA, but that’s probably something the Rays are willing to live with.
Opp wRC+: 103 (18.6 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.11
Rangers @ Astros
Earlier in the season, it seemed the Rangers were limiting Nathan Eovaldi to keep him healthy for a stretch run. He’d gone beyond six innings only twice of his first 12 starts, while pitching fewer than that six times as well. However, with players returning and the Rangers so far back, the time is now, as he’s completed seven innings in three straight with an 18.2 K-BB%, bringing his season rate up to 17.1%. Despite a 43.3% hard contact rate, Barrels/BBE are down to 6.5%, Eovaldi’s second lowest mark since 2018. The result is all estimators below 3.75, though some are more than half a run above his 3.10 ERA (.244 BABIP, 80 LOB%). His worst PitchingBot grade is a 49 curveball (3.69 Bot ERA) with a 98 Stuff+ mark increasing to a 104 Pitching+. This is the first time Eovaldi has dropped below a 100 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 112 (18.7 K%, 124 Home)
DEF: 19.5
B30: 3.63
SpAghetti has exhibited an ability to miss bats (25.1 K%, 11.3 SwStr%), but not one to consistently throw strikes (12 BB%). The result has been just two quality starts, the only two where he hasn’t allowed a run. He’s also suffered from the results of a .360 BABIP and 68.4 LOB% with 10 of 16 barrels (7.6%) going bye-bye. All estimators are more than a run below his 5.96 ERA, though only dropping as low as a 4.21 xERA. PitchingBot grades are more impressive, despite 90 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks. All three pitches he throws 19% of the time or more grade above 50, featuring a 70 grade cutter (19.4%, 1 RV/100). There’s untapped potential here, though it may not be this year.
Opp wRC+: 94 (19.8 K%, 93 Road, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.44
Marlins @ Reds
Edward Cabrera has gone four starts without completing five innings. He’s struck out 30.7% of batters with a 13.3 SwStr%, but also walked 13.2% with 12.7% Barrels/BBE. The result is a 4.63 xERA that’s still more than two runs below his 6.84 ERA (58.1 LOB%). Cabrera has allowed just 32 balls off the ground and eight of them have been barrels. There’s a severe disconnect between Cabrera’s 4.94 Bot ERA and 101 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+ marks. LHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 89 (25.8 K%, 87 Home, 127 L7 days)
DEF: -14
B30: 3.28
Andrew Abbott struck out 10 Red Sox with a single walk, then walked 10 Yankees and Cardinals with just four strikeouts before striking out eight Rockies with just two walks last time out. With just a 10.3 K-BB%, but 31.4% hard contact rate, Abbott registers a 3.48 xERA that’s still more than one-third of a run above his 3.06 ERA. All other estimators exceed his xERA by well more than a run. He’s stranding an absurd 86.2% of his runners with a .230 BABIP. Abbott also throws a 46 PB grade fastball 54.5% of the time, resulting in a 4.50 Bot ERA to go with 91 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 68 (69 Road)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.58
Nationals @ Brewers
Up to 16 starts and 91.2 major league innings and the unheralded Mitchell Parker has produced a 14.8 K-BB% with estimators ranging from a 3.91 FIP to a 4.24 dERA. That’s a bit higher than his 3.44 ERA (.259 BABIP, five unearned runs), but still more than respectable for a pitcher few had even heard of before being called up. His 4.23 Bot ERA lies on the upper end of that estimator range, though only the splitter (17.3%, 0 RV/100, 43 PB grade) is a below average pitch. Stuff+ (88) and Pitching+ (98) are a bit more pessimistic.
Opp wRC+: 102 (11.2 K-BB%, 115 Home)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 3.86
Amazingly, Dallas Keuchel is getting a third start for the Brewers, despite a 1.6 K-BB%, including five walks without a strikeout through 4.1 shutout innings last time out. An 85.1 LOB% results in a 4.61 ERA more than two-thirds of a run below all estimators with PitchingBot grades maxing out at 35, while Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks are below 90.
Opp wRC+: 79 (20.8 K%, 88 Road, 116 L7 days)
DEF: 18
B30: 4.40
Twins @ Giants
Simeon Woods-Richardson increased his slider usage to 33.7% over a four start span, in which his strikeout rate increased to 25% (12.8%). In the three starts since, he has dropped back down to 30.9% (his season rate) with a 17.6 K% (9.9 SwStr%). SWR likes his fastball (40.7%, 1.6 RV/100, 45 PB grade), but unfortunately, so do the Giants (0.06 wFA/C is top half of the league). A .249 BABIP and just eight of 22 barrels leaving the park are doing the heavy lifting on a 3.48 ERA with a league average 12.9 K-BB% and 9.6% Barrels/BBE. SWR’s best non-FIP estimator is a 3.93 xERA. Impressively, an 86 Stuff+ mark works up to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 98 (107 Home, 88 L7 days)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.35
Hayden Birdsong has struck out five in each of his three starts, posting a 12.9 K-BB% in 14.1 innings. Three of his five barrels (12.5%) have left the park on a 45% hard hit rate. A 28 grade fastball that he’s thrown 48.7% of the time so far is going to be a problem against the Twins (0.71 wFA/C), the second best fastball hitting team in the league.
Opp wRC+: 111 (104 Road, 151 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.66
Braves @ Padres
Reynaldo Lopez continues to dominate with a 1.71 ERA, despite a 9.0 K-BB% over his last three starts, dropping his season rate to 16.4%. Not only is his 88.6 LOB% ridiculous, but just six of 22 barrels (9.4%) have turned into home runs. Is Lopez the most fortunate pitcher in the league? All non-FIP estimators are more than two runs worse than actual results, but PitchingBot grades only range from 44 to 54, formulating a 4.20 Bot ERA with a 95 Stuff+ score working up to an average 100 Pitching+. Even further, LHBs have a .284 wOBA against Lopez, which Statcast works out to a .340 xwOBA. Average pitcher, which is fine and something the Braves would have probably been incredibly happy with, but not the All-Star many portend him to be.
Opp wRC+: 117 (18.3 K%, 119 Home)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.01
Dylan Cease has squeezed a pair of seven inning quality starts into several beatings over his last five, but a now 4.21 ERA on the season is mostly the product of poor sequencing, stranding just 67.3% of his runners. A 23.6 K-BB% suggests estimators all more than half a run lower. Even 11.9% Barrels/BBE results in just a 3.69 xERA (more than half a run better than Lopez) because only 38.5% of his contact has been hard hit. Barrels are responsible for 31% of his hard contact. Also counter to Lopez, pitch modeling adores Cease with his 58 grade fastball (43.2%, -0.4 RV/100) and 60 grade slider (41.8%, 0.9 RV/100), two of the three pitches the Braves are below average against, while his 124 Stuff+ mark almost merits a 108 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%, 89 Road)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.76
I have the Padres as rather sizeable favorites in this game, yet the current line has them at even. We have perhaps the most fortunate pitcher in the game going up against one of the least fortunate, while the Padres have also been the far better offensive unit. But, as with the Rockies, I want an F5 line, which we currently don’t have because of the Cease/Waldron swap, before committing to full game with the pen disadvantage. This play will likely be more than a unit. Update: Still no F5 available at post time so went ahead and played a unit at +100. Could add another when F5 becomes available, but didn't want to miss this line.
Mariners @ Angels
Six consecutive quality starts for George Kirby with more than two runs in just one of them. A 24.4 K-BB% over his last eight starts brings his season rate up to 21.9%, while 7.4% Barrels/BBE and a 32.4% hard contact rate have brought those down to 8.3% and 33.8% respectively. Kirby has issued the same amount of walks (11) as home runs this year. That’s just 40.7% of his barrels, meaning the FIP (2.87) runs a bit low, but otherwise, all additional estimators are within one-quarter run of his 3.39 ERA. Kirby’s success is complemented by 107 Stuff+ and Pithcing+ scores with PitchingBot grades all running at 54 or better.
Opp wRC+: 91 (74 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.81
Jose Soriano is posting a below average 11.1 K-BB%, but superior 60.6 GB%, yet he has still somehow allowed 8.2% Barrels/BBE, due to a 44% hard hit rate. A significant reduction in walk rate (6.0%) allowed Soriano to complete six innings in five straight starts before hitting the IL, though he only thrown 62 and 73 pitches in two starts back. A 3.52 dERA seems a bit generous and is Soriano’s only estimator more than a quarter run removed from his 3.87 ERA, a 4.09 FIP the only other one more than one-tenth of a run. Utilizing a sinker far more than any other pitch (41.3%, 1.3 RV/100), it receives one of his better PitchingBot grades (52), but it’s also the only pitch the Mariners have seen any success against this season (0.18 wSI/C is top third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 95 (28.8 K%, 133 L7 days)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 4.48
Blue Jays @ Diamondbacks
Jose Berrios struck out a season high 10 of 28 Mariners last time out (12.2 SwStr%), one start after striking out just one of 22 Astros (3.3 SwStr%), just one start after striking out a previous season high eight of 27 Yankees (11.8 SwStr%). Those are also two of his three highest swinging strike rates of the season too. It’s hard to ignore the .252 BABIP and 83.3 LOB%, which are major factors in a 3.76 ERA that’s at least one-third of a run below all estimators with just a 12.5 K-BB%. Berrios wants to curb the fastball (17.6%, -1.3 RV/100, 43 PB grade) against the Diamondbacks, who are the top offense against fastballs in baseball (0.88 wFA/C). Berrios receives PB grades between 52 and 57 on each of the other three pitches he throws more than 3.1% of the time. A 92 Stuff+ mark works up to a league average 99 Pitching+, which is in line with his 4.11 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 102 (20.5 K%)
DEF: 17
B30: 4.44
Nearly 24 year-old Yilber Diaz is the sixth ranked Arizona prospect (Fangraphs) with a 45 Future Value grade, which includes 60 or better FV grades on all three of his pitches, but just a 40 FV grade on the command. A May prospect report from the same site called him a “high octane reliever” who was “almost destined for the bullpen” and pitches with maximum effort. The walk rate has “improved” to 9.9% through four AAA starts, his best mark at any minor league stop, while striking out 30.8% of batters. Projection systems averaged out a bit below four and a half prior to his first start, in which he struck out five of 23 Braves with just a single walk and barrel (29.4% hard hit rate). Yet, his projections have slightly declined to just above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.2 K%)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 4.31
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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