It's going to be hit or miss this week. I'm likely committed to at least two more this week, but at this point I have to prioritize other things over something that is really just a very time consuming hobby right now. I have no intention of ending this project anytime soon, but after missing very few days the first few months of the season, there may be more breaks coming as the long season doesn't only wear players down. And now today's rant...
Brandon Nimmo is second among NL outfielders in fWAR (flanked by all three Padres, who all made the team). He's 17th in fWAR among ALL MLB players since the start of the 2022 season (all other 19 have made All-Star teams), 8th among ALL NL players, 7th among ALL outfielders and only behind a pair of guys named Betts and Acuna among NL outfielders over that span. Don't include this season with Soto in the AL, they are virtually tied just below 10 fWAR. I don't know how a player in the New York market can possibly be the most under-rated one in the game or who's fault that is, but that's where Nimmo remains the last few years. Even if he eventually makes it as an injury replacement (and WTF at Alonso being chosen with his 1.2 fWAR well behind other players from his own team or at his position), Nimmo doesn't just deserve to be an All-Star this year, last year and the year before. He deserves to start. That probably won't happen until they allow people who know a little bit about baseball to choose these players, but until then, let's just call this game what it is: a showcase for randomly selected popular players which has very little to do with anything of merit.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Mets @ Pirates
As long as I’m already on a Mets rant...
Christian Scott was banished to AAA for the entire month of June in an effort to reduce his workload, facing no more than 19 batters in any of his four starts down there during that span. He returned to pitch against Washington last week with his first run allowed in the fifth before Carlos Mendoza allowed him to reach a career high 99 pitches, capped off by a three-run homer in the sixth on his last pitch. It was Scott’s seventh major league barrel allowed (7.0%), though he has just a 19.9 K% (14.0 K-BB%) with a league average 10.5 SwStr% and that’s because he can’t command his pitches consistently. It doesn’t show up in the walk rate, but in the lack of strikeouts, mere 13.9 CStr% and 44.4 Z-O-Swing%. The best news is in the contact profile, which includes eight popups in addition to the seven barrels. His contact neutral estimators are smack dead on (within 0.05 runs) of Scott’s 4.32 ERA with contact inclusive ones (FIP, xERA) nearly a half run lower, just below four. The lack of command can be seen in a sweeper/slider (Scott throws both, but pitch modeling doesn’t differentiate) that has 58 PitchingBot and 129 Stuff+ grades before adding location in, dropping to 46 and 108 overall. Pitch modeling otherwise sees Scott as a perfectly average pitcher overall through six starts, which is right in between where his contact neutral and inclusive estimators have him coincidentally. It’s also interesting to note that both of these pitchers have actual splits (wOBA) of 25 points or more (Scott normal, Keller reverse), though Statcast (xwOBA) drops that down to six points or less.
Opp wRC+: 85 (24.8 K%, 87 Home, 127 L7 days)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.92
Despite seven innings of two hit, no run ball against the Reds included, Mitch Keller has allowed 14 runs (12 earned) over his last 23.2 innings). However, he’s done this with a 15.9 K-BB% that’s actually better than his season rate (15.5%) and just three barrels with just one-quarter of his contact reaching a 95 mph exit velocity. It’s a bit of regression that was to be expected with Keller’s estimators (3.64 FIP – 4.34 dERA) still running a bit higher than his 3.48 ERA. He may not be a true Ace, but has become the workhorse of this rotation, failing to record a sixth inning out for just the third time this year last time out. Keller has thrown six pitches this year and only the sinker (48 PB grade) sits outside a 53 to a 55 Pitching Bot grade range (3.82 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+). Also note that high leverage relievers for both teams have been ridden into the ground over the weekend.
Opp wRC+: 108 (21 K%, 118 Road, 85 L7 days)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.56
Cardinals @ Nationals
Miles Mikolas doesn’t miss bats (17.3 K%, 6.7 SwStr%, 91.4 Z-Contact%) and has great control (4.3 BB%). The rest of it is pretty much up in the air. He’s allowed four or more runs in one-third of his starts, but has dropped his hard hit rate from 45.5% over his first eight starts to 37.6% over his last 10. Of course, you could probably cherry pick those numbers however you want. Mikolas has completed six innings in nine of his last 12 starts (eight quality) with season estimators (4.04 FIP – 4.47 dERA) well below his 5.19 ERA (62.2 LOB%). The curveball (11.9%) is his only below average PitchingBot grade with everything else between 52 and 58 and an 88 Stuff+ mark working up to a 102 Pitching+ with the elite command.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.5 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.17
Mitchell Parker allowed multiple home runs for just the second time last time out with three of four barrels for the Mets. He’s allowed six of his 23 barrels (8.9%) over his last two starts with his hard hit rate creeping up to 40.1% on the season as well. Similar to Mikolas, he has a below average strikeout rate (19.8%) with great control (5.2 BB%), but misses a few more bats. His estimators (3.92 FIP – 4.33 dERA) sit a bit above 3.61 ERA (.260 BABIP, four unearned runs). Also similar to Mikolas, Mitchell has 54 and 52 PitchingBot grades on the pair of pitches he throws more than 20% of the time (fastball and curveball respectively) with an 88 Stuff+ mark working up to a 98 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 79 (19.6 K%, 6.8 HR/FB)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 3.58
Update 2:30 EST: Only 97 degrees with a 6 mph wind out to left. Going OVER 9 (-115).
Guardians @ Tigers
A 12.8 K-BB% in 82 innings for Gavin Williams last year. A 22.4 K-BB% in five AAA rehab starts (12 IP). He’s projected a bit better than last year, as a league average arm this year with estimators a bit above four. The White Sox had their way with Williams first time out though, scoring five runs with a 47.1% hard contact rate. He generated four ground balls, two walks and two strikeouts. Williams did not record a single whiff inside the strike zone, despite his velocity being up a mph from last season.
Opp wRC+: 90 (24.3 K%, 120 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.71
Five barrels (11.4%) and a 43.2% hard contact rate, limit the production for Keider Montero, who has a 15.1 K-BB% over his first 15 innings. The 13 SwStr% is impressive. The 47.2 Z-O-Swing% is not. Montero carries a 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) with an above average fastball, but average at best secondaries and poor command. Montero has a 10.7 K-BB% at AAA. He was Detroit’s 22nd ranked prospect (again, Fangraphs) back in January, projected eventually as a reliever, due to his lack of an above average arsenal, aside from the fastball. This does mesh with early pitch modeling returns (58 PB grade fastball, 47 grade slider). RHBs have a .477 wOBA and .437 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 104 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.71
DFS Notes: Five game daily fantasy slate on Monday night, starting a half hour earlier AND including a pair of west coast games, which may mean all lineups are not in by first pitch. One protected environment and Arizona is oddly not telling us yet whether the roof will be open or closed (assume closed). The Twins and Reds exceed five implied runs, more than half a run above the rest of the slate with three more teams above four and a half and then another gap of more than one-third of a run to the remaining five offenses, three below four implied runs.
The pitching on this slate is awful because there’s a clear number one guy, not even close, despite perhaps the toughest matchup on the board. It’s the SP2, if playing on DraftKings, where things get interesting. I also think there’s a clear number one offense too because I think the books are undervaluing Feltner, which I certainly alluded to in the write-up for that game below.
We start in Detroit with a pair of pitchers who have made a combined four appearances this year. Temps in the mid-80s neutralized by a double digit wind in from right center. Gavin Williams did not look good in his first start. Projections are better. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, which scares me off. Montero costs $4K and despite Cleveland’s 4.59 team total and their inability to strike out much, I think you have to consider the punt here because every other pitcher behind Sale is significantly flawed. The Tigers are second from the bottom at 3.51 runs. I’m not going to profess to have a clue what to do with the small samples of these pitchers this year, but RHBs do exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Montero, as mentioned above. The problem is that Cleveland doesn’t really have any right-handed prowess. David Fry (123 wRC+, .148 ISO v RHP this season) is down to an 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Naylor (130, .260), Greene (158, .246), Ramirez (110, .238) and Kwan (169, .192) are the top bats here. Vierling (101, .212) might have some value too. Naylor, Kwan and Greene exceed a 140 over the last 30 days. The Cleveland duo (assuming Naylor) would be easier to run on. The Detroit duo (assuming Kelly) would be harder. Both bullpens are hovering around the top third of the league L30 days with their estimators. Clase (38) and Gaddis (27) have both gone back to back days though.
Update 4:10 EST: Vierling is out among several changes to the DET LU. CLE going with seven LHBs against Montero.
Rockies @ Reds
Sometimes I can’t tell if Ryan Feltner is a decent pitcher being held back by the park and limitations of the organization or he’s just a random pitcher who occasionally pops a few strong ones. He did run a five start stretch where he struck out just 16 batters earlier in the season, but outside of those starts, he has a perfectly average 21.9 K% and has walked just 6.2% of batters on the season. He’s allowed just 6.1% Barrels/BBE and two-thirds of them have gone out, not that he’ll get any reprieve from that in Cincinnati, but all of his estimators (including his FIP) range between 4.00 (xFIP) and 4.14 (xERA). That’s exactly average this year and it’s more than a run below his 5.60 ERA due to a .340 BABIP (huge outfield at Coors, much smaller in Cincinnati) and 58.6 LOB%. I’d like to see a contending team (maybe the Orioles) target him in a trade. Pitch modeling? With the exception of a sinker he throws 13.4% of the time (43), all other pitches are between 47 and 52 PitchingBot grades with a 98 Stuff+ mark working up to a 101 Pitching+. Again, perfectly average.
Opp wRC+: 85 (26 K%, 81 Home, 67 L7 days)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.26
Since striking out a season high 10 of 22 Red Sox, Andrew Abbott has struck out four of 49 Cardinals and Yankees, while walking 10. The man has just a 30.6% hard contact rate, but 8% of those are barrels with 16 of the 23 turning into home runs because Cincinnati. He also has a mere 9.5 K-BB%, making a 3.50 xERA his only estimator not more than a run and a half above his 3.28 ERA (.232 BABIP, 85.5 LOB%). Kind of like the estimators, Abbott has a pair of PitchingBot grades above 55 (sweeper 15.8%, curveball 12.5%), but the other two below 47 (fastball 54.8%, changeup 16.6%) with a 92 Stuff+ score working up only to a 96 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 86 (24.9 K%, 78 Road, 80 L7 days)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.76
We have to include the 3.50 xERA in our analysis because it exists, even if we don’t know if it’s as predictive as more contact neutral indicators. Yet, even then, Feltner is still the far better pitcher here with Abbott doing some things that are completely unsustainable. The only edges the Reds have are on defense and in the bullpen, but yet they’re a large favorite here. I’ll take my chances with a below average, but improving bullpen for a much better full game price (+160).
DFS Notes: Near 90 with a light breeze in from right field. This is easily the most positive run environment on the slate. We mentioned the Reds having the second highest run total above with the Rockies (4.19) in the middle of the board. Not only do I think the Reds are a bit over-valued here, but I’m rostering Feltner as my DK single entry SP2 for $5.5K. He may even be the second best pitcher on the slate with Paddack potentially limited. The slate is small enough and the park dangerous enough that I’m still considering Cincinnati bats, even in the same lineup on a five game slate because Elly De La Cruz (128 wRC+, .251 ISO v RHP this year) may be the top bat on the board at a weak position. Feltner has had legitimate issues with LHBs (.372 wOBA, .345 xwOBA this year). Candelario (107, .266) is another strong option here. With RHBs at .312, .295, India (120, .146) and Steer (109, .185) would be the top choices. All four are above a 100 wRC+ L30 days and are the only four projected Reds above a 50 wRC+ L30 days too…hence, the Feltner love. The Rockies have the sixth worst pen estimators L30 days. RHBs at .316, .302 against Abbott this year and the Rockies would be the stack I’m going over-weight on in multi entry. I’m also including Rodgers (147, .213), Stallings (187, .349) and Doyle (101, .127) in single entry. Rodgers, Doyle and McMahon (131, .196) are the only three projected Rockies above a 100 wRC+ L30 days. McMahon and both catchers exceed a 120 road wRC+ this year. Abbott and Stephenson are a very easy combo to run on. The Reds have top 10 pen estimators L30 days, but Diaz threw 23 pitches on Sunday in a non-save situation.
Update 4:30 EST: Blackmon in against the lefty. No Stallings. I'm wondering if Abbott's K prop has climbed too high (5.5u +112). Four of the first six for Rox under 20 K% v LHP this year. Other two at 30% though. Another 30%er batting seventh. Remember, Abbott has struck out just four of his last 49 batters. He's had more than five strikeouts in less than one-third of his starts this year. Yup, I've talked myself into it. 2.86% gain on COL ML.
Twins @ White Sox
Chris Paddack has been out since June 21st with arm fatigue, allowing eight runs over seven innings with just three strikeouts (35 BF) leading up to that. He did not receive a minor league rehab start, but threw 82 pitches in his last start. Assume some limitation, but who knows exactly how much? Even with that pair of duds, Paddack has produced a respectable 15.2 K-BB%, but with 9.8% Barrels/BBE and 43.5% hard contact rate. Estimators ranging from a 4.04 xFIP to a 4.71 xERA are all more than half a run below his 5.29 ERA (.335 BABIP, 70.7 LOB%). LHBs have a .350 wOBA and .362 xwOBA against him this year, which is another benefit of facing the White Sox in addition to their failures against fastballs (-0.9 wFA/C) and changeups (-1.48 wCH/C), coincidentally, Paddack’s top graded pitches at 59 and 74 respectively via PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 77 (76 Home)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.67
A 34.8% hard hit rate, but 8.1% Barrels/BBE along with an 8.2 K-BB% finds Chris Flexen with a 4.49 xERA that’s more than four-tenths of a run below all other estimators, which are all within one-fifth of a run of his 5.08 ERA. Flexen’s 52 Stuff+ mark is worst of any pitcher who has remained in a rotation for most of the season, while taking his 37 grade fastball (38.7%, -1.5 RV/100) against only the best fastball hitting team in the majors (0.84 wFA/C). But Flexen is the better of these two pitchers by xERA. Anyone buying that?
Opp wRC+: 111 (164 L7 days)
DEF: -18
B30: 3.38
DFS Notes: Around 80 degrees with a near double digit wind across the field. As mentioned, the Twins are our top offense tonight, while the White Sox are fourth from the bottom (4.08), which means middle of the board. I think Paddack is still fine as an SP2 for $7.5K, but realize he may be limited. I expect him to be popular. Flexen may be the one untouchable pitcher on this board. Batters above either a 95 wRC+ or .160 ISO against RHP in the projected White Sox lineup this year include only Luis Robert (112, .289) and Paul DeJong (124, .231). LHBs have a .350 wOBA and .362 xwOBA against Paddack this year with RHBs at .327 and .316. The White Sox have no quality LHBs. This is a tough combo to run on and the Twins have top five pen estimators L30 days. It’s Robert Jr. or bust here. Every projected Twin is above a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year with Castro’s .148 ISO the lineup low. He’s still probably one of the top bats at the many positions he’s eligible at. Miranda (185, .238) is my top bat here. Batters from either side are between a .309 and .337 wOBA and xwOBA against Flexen this year. Jeffers (116), Larnach (70) and Kepler (67) are the only projected Twins not above a 150 wRC+ L30 days. You really can’t run on Flexen and Lee, but you really might not need to. The White Sox are actually tied with the Twins in terms of pen estimators L30 days, which is a surprise. Two of last three for Kopech (45), Brebbia (43) and Banks (30) though.
Update 4:20 EST: Wind has slightly changed direction to blowing slightly out to left. CWS get a third LHBs in there (Sheets) at the expense of Robert. Flirting with MIN -166 (F5), but don't have enough confidence in the returning Paddack in his first start back.
Rangers @ Angels
Jon Gray had a 25.5 K% (19.3 K-BB%) over his first eight starts, but just a 14.5 K% (7.9 K-BB%) over his last seven. With exactly one-third of his 24 barrels leaving the park, estimators are bookended by a 3.52 FIP and 4.65 xERA, while others are within a quarter run of a 3.92 ERA. Gray throws three pitches more than five percent of the time (but really two – fastball/slider - 89.5% of the time) and they all have 46 Pitching Bot grades. LHBs have a .373 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against him, but the Angels really don’t have the personnel to take advantage of that failing.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 19.5
B30: 4.01
Davis Daniel threw 12.1 major league innings over three long relief appearances in 2023 with as many walks as strikeouts. The 27 year-old 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs), 16th ranked prospect for the Angels has been delayed by injuries projects to be a swing man of some type. In 76 innings at AAA, he had a respectable 16.9 K-BB%. Of course, he struck out eight of 26 Tigers in his season debut, shutting them out on four hits without a walk and just a single barrel over eight innings. Projection systems still have him around four and three-quarters runs per nine after striking out just three of 24 A’s with a pair of home runs and barrels, along with a 45% hard contact rate his last time out. He’s only walked one of 50 batters though and PitchingBot loves the fastball (44.9%, 4.8 RV/100, 67 grade), a pitch the Rangers have really struggled against (-0.55 wFA/C is fifth worst).
Opp wRC+: 91 (18.9 K%, 91 Road, 125 L7 days)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.43
DFS Notes: Run neutral, power friendly environment in the low 70s with a light breeze out to left-center, the Rangers are at 4.56 implied runs with the home team third from the bottom (3.94). Gray may be the better SP2 choice than Paddack for $7K, but I don’t trust him and preferred to drop lower to Feltner. Daniel costs a ridiculous $8K or more against a contact prone offense and one that’s finally heating up. Seager (149), Smith (134) and Lowe (111) are the only projected Rangers above a 100 wRC+ against RHP this season. Seager (.233), Garcia (.200) and Smith (.166) the only three above a .140 ISO. Seager (122), Smith (157), Lowe (116) and Langford (168) the only four above a 90 wRC+ L30 days. Seager (135) is by far the top road wRC+ in this projected lineup. Daniel/O’Hoppe seem to be an easy combo to run on, while the Angels have bottom five pen estimators L30 days. Still, I don’t perceive any great Texas values on this slate. Seager is the top overall bat, probably followed by Semien just due to his position in the lineup. Gray’s issues against LHBs are mentioned above. Schanuel (96 wRC+, .111 ISO v RHP this year) and Calhoun (110, .132) have some value under these circumstances and I don’t dislike O’Hoppe (136, .196), who has a 169 wRC+ L30 days. This is another somewhat easy combo to run on and a bullpen with bottom half of the league estimators L30 days, just outside the bottom third.
Braves @ Diamondbacks
Eight of the 18 runs Chris Sale has allowed over his last 12 starts came in one start against the A’s. Sitting on a 27.8 K-BB% with an elite contact profile (5.9% Barrels/BBE, 30.4% hard contact rate), how could he not be the Cy Young front runner with all estimators below his 2.71 ERA. Oddly, while pitch modeling is strong, it’s not particularly great with all PIthcingBot grades between 56 and 59, while a 104 Stuff+ mark works down to a 102 Pitching+. Two of those secondary pitchers (slider, changeup) are pitches the Diamondbacks are a bottom five offense against, but another (fastball), they’re second best against behind only the Twins. They
Opp wRC+: 117 (20.4 K%, 108 Home, 159 L7 days
DEF: -5.5
B30: 2.85
Nearly 24 year-old Yilber Diaz is the sixth ranked Arizona prospect (Fangraphs) with a 45 Future Value grade, which includes 60 or better FV grades on all three of his pitches, but just a 40 FV grade on the command. A May prospect report from the same site called him a “high octane reliever” who was “almost destined for the bullpen” who pitches with maximum effort. The walk rate has “improved” to 9.9% through four AAA starts, his best mark at any minor league stop, while striking out 30.8% of batters. Projection systems average out a bit below four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.4 K%, 90 Road, 88 L7 days)
DEF: 18
B30: 4.67
Massive starting and relief pitching edge for the Braves, but those are met by massive offensive (yeah, I said it) and defensive edges for the home team. There’s a 23 point gap between wRC+ v L/RHP and 18 point Home/Road one. There’s something to be said for a pitcher in his major league debut against an offense that has never seen him before. Sometimes it works better than it’s supposed to. I feel like I have to take a chance with the D’Backs as massive home dogs (+180) against a LHP, even if he’s the best LHP in the game right now.
DFS Notes: Dead even (100) park run factor with the roof closed, increasing to 102 on average on the rare occasions that it’s open, the Braves are third from the top tonight (4.63) with the Diamondbacks the bottom team on the board (3.37). It’s so obviously Sale tonight, despite the matchup. Batters from either side are below a .260 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Marte crushes LHP (192 wRC+, .341 ISO this year) and is the only Arizona bat I’d consider. The projected LHBs (Carroll & Thomas) are the only projected Diamondbacks below a 130 wRC+ L30 days though. Sale is very easy to run on, though Murphy mitigates that slightly. The Braves have the top pen estimators in baseball L30 days. Kelenic (125, .206) is my favorite Atlanta bat, not knowing anything above Diaz. Atlanta bats are heating up, but still priced as if they were hitting like last year. Riley (125, .193) is the hottest bat with a 167 wRC+ L30 days. Ozuna (147, .282) the top Atlanta bat against RHP this year (126 L30 days). Arizona has the second worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 4:55 EST: No LUs in for either of the late games yet, but closing Monday out. Confirmed roof closure in Arizona. Gain of 2.17% on ARI ML so far.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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