The biggest blemish on an otherwise solid Friday was dropping another closing line crusher with Arizona F5. As I predicted here yesterday, I was confident the A's would win after losing more than five percent on that game and they walked it off. Brought home another big dog in Washington too, while the Crochet/King/SEA/STL combo did DFS players well.
Had to be a bit short on several games and don't know what I'll have time to update on Saturday. With the main DFS slate in the afternoon (10 4 PM games!), no notes.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Phillies @ Mets
Ranger Suarez got knocked out of his last start after two innings with a hand injury. I don’t know how you strike out 28.5% of batters with an 84 Stuff+ grade. He’s a command (102 Pitching+) over everything else guy, generating 53.7% of his contact on the ground with a 31.8% hard contact rate this year.
Opp wRC+: 117 (19.1 K%, 165 L7 days)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 2.90
Sean Manaea allowed six runs (five earned) to the Diamondbacks last time out, but struck out 10 with just a pair of walks. He has a 23.3 K-BB% over his last four starts.
Opp wRC+: 115 (111 Road)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.30
If this is the same stadium they used for other games in England, it should play extremely pitcher hitter friendly.
Giants @ Rangers
Spencer Howard bulk? No walks, three barrels, seven strikeouts, 34 batters faced.
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.6 K% - watch Seager’s status)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.30
Six shutout innings in Miami last time out for Andrew Heaney. He has a 16.0 K-BB%, only allowing 7.5% Barrels/BBE this year with all estimators within half a run of his 3.99 ERA, but just an 81 Stuff+ grade (99 Pitching+ though).
Opp wRC+: 116 (108 Road, 118 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.27
Twins @ Pirates
Of course Simeon Woods-Richardson has his second best strikeout total of the season in Houston (six). The overall 13.8 K-BB% is fine. Contact inclusive estimators at three and half to four. Contact neutral estimators low fours.
Opp wRC+: 81 (88 Home, 83 L7 days)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.31
This might be Luis Ortiz, who has been working in relief, but throwing nearly 50 pitches several times in May. He has a career 4.7 K-BB% over 136.1 innings.
Opp wRC+: 100 (100 Road, 99 L7 days)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.34
Braves @ Nationals
Charlie Morton’s 3.88 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators with a 14.2 K-BB%. A 92 Stuff+ score, 97 Pitching+ and 4.01 Bot ERA all suggest league average pitching. It’s really as simple as that.
Opp wRC+: 92 (89 Home)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.84
MacKenzie Gore is coming off his worst start of the season against the Mets, who are actually pretty good against LHP. He simply lost his command, walking four with just two strikeouts. This is not a pattern yet unless it happens at least twice with his velocity not significantly down, I find no reason to immediately worry. The 19.6 K-BB% and 116 Stuff+ (106 Pitching+) grades still play here.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: -9
B30: 3.96
Gore’s worst estimator is a 3.88 xERA. Morton’s best is a 3.82 xFIP. The offensive and defensive edges do not entirely make up for that, especially on the road (WAS +120). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Blue Jays @ Athletics
Kevin Gausman was pounded for six runs by the Orioles last time out. Yes, it was a great offense, but it’s also the fourth time he’s allowed six runs this year. Already admitting he’s been thrown off by trying to pitch through an injury, this version of Gausman has his lowest K-BB (16.9%) since 2018 and his highest rate of barrels (10.9%) ever. This is the producer of a 5.25 ERA that’s more than half a run above his 4.60 ERA with a 3.70 FIP his next worst estimator. While maintaining a 106 Pitching+ score, a 98 Stuff+ one is clearly evidence that something is amiss and maybe it’s in the consistency of his mechanics.
Opp wRC+: 96 (26.4 K%)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.23
Luis Medina has a tremendous arm, but spotty command. He walked just two of 21 Braves, while striking out six in his season debut. In 17 starts plus a few games out of the pen last year, he posted just a 9.9 K-BB% with the emphasis on an 11.5 BB%. Projection systems have him around four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.6 K%)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.91
I’m not taking Gausman’s 5.25 xERA at face value, but I’m also not expecting him to regress all the way back to contact neutral estimators. He’s always been a high BABIP guy. Still giving him an ERA below four and taking Medina at actual projections, I can’t get the Blue Jays to much of a favorite here, considering that Oakland probably has the better bullpen here.
Cubs @ Reds
After seven innings of no-hit ball, striking out 10 of 23 Brewers, these same Reds got to Ben Brown for five runs with a pair of barrels, but still just a single walk and six more strikeouts. There’s certainly some volatility in the contact profile (11.9% Barrels/BBE, 53.2% hard contact), but that’s down to a much more reasonable 9.8% and 41% since the start of May, over which Brown also has a 23.9 K-BB%. A 110 Stuff+ grades confirms that there’s something special here if Brown can continue to make adjustments.
Opp wRC+: 88 (26.5 K%)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.69
As opposed to Brown, there’s nothing special going on here, unless a .246 BABIP and 83.9 LOB% really turns you on. To Abbott’s credit, he supplements his 12.0 K-BB% with a 30.8% hard contact rate, projecting a 3.11 xERA that’s a quarter run below his 3.39 ERA, which is more than a full run below every other estimator. A 91 Stuff+ grade, 96 Pitching+ and 4.45 Bot ERA give us no comfort that he can sustain any of this either.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -6
B30: 3.24
On the weighted average, Brown has estimators almost exactly a run better than Abbott. Add in an offensive deficit and I’ll take the Cubbies F5 (-105).
Mariners @ Royals
It’s been a stretch of tough offenses for Luis Castillo (Astros, Yankees, Orioles, but also Angels) as he’s struck out just 17 of his last 99 batters. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in 10 straight starts though and is one inning short of as many quality starts. His 18.4 K-BB% produces estimators ranging only from a 3.57 xERA to a 3.70 xFIP with a similarly solid 100 Stuff+ score and 103 Pitching+. His best pitch grade via PitchingBot is the sinker (15.9%, -1.8 RV/100, 56 grade).
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.1 K%, 115 Home & L7 days)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.60
Alec Marsh has allowed 13 runs over his last 18 innings and eight barrels over just his last two starts. Too many fat pitches are starting to catch up with him (9.9% Barrels/BBE), alongside a league average 12.9 K-BB%. Only six of his 16 barrels have left the yard. Kansas City is not a power friendly park. Non-FIP estimators range from 4.25 SIERA to a 4.98 xERA, but with league average pitch modeling grades (99 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 3.85 Bot ERA) with PitchingBot only handing out one grade below 50 to his curveball (16.7%, -0.7 RV/100, 49 grade).
Opp wRC+: 94 (28.1 K%, 92 Road)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.59
The gap between these pitchers may not be as large as perceived and that’s because Castillo has been more good than great, hidden by 2.99 ERA and great park. The Royals also have decently sized offensive and defensive edges, but I’m staying away from bullpens (KC +120 F5).
Orioles @ Rays
Rumors of Kyle Bradish’s demise appear to have been premature. He gets a full week’s rest after his first poor start of the season, knocked out in the third by these same Rays. That pushed his walk rate up to 11.2%, next to a 32 K%, 25.4% hard contact rate and just 4.5% Barrels/BBE.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.42
Taj Bradley was similarly smoked by the Orioles for four home runs in that same game. He’s allowed a stunning 14 barrels (20%) next to a 20.5 K-BB% through five starts.
Opp wRC+: 109 (20 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.73
Red Sox @ White Sox
Brayan Bello has allowed 15 runs over his last 22 innings with a 13.1 K-BB% that matches his season mark (13.6%) and 63.6 GB%. BABIP (.333)!! And a 64.9 LOB%. With eight home runs on just 11 barrels (7%), non-FIP estimators from a 3.48 dERA to a 4.04 xERA are well below his 3.46 ERA. Further illustrative of what of Bello’s potential are 104 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ grades plus a 3.48 Bot ERA that includes a sinker and slider graded above 55, two pitches the White Sox are at the bottom of the league against.
Opp wRC+: 76 (75 Home)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.36
Through five starts, Nick Nastrini has a -5.8 K-BB% with 10 barrels (14.7%). Only four more strikeouts than barrels!! His 87 Pitching+ grade is one of the lowest I’ve seen.
Opp wRC+: 103 (117 Road, 167 L7 days)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.41
I generally am not in the habit of playing large favorites, but I’m sure Bello is better than the surface results, while Nastrini has some of the worst stats I’ve ever seen. (BOS -205 F5).
Brewers @ Tigers
Freddy Peralta…oh, I did this one already!
He’s only completed six innings five times this year, once in his last four starts and has allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE, despite a 33.8% hard contact rate. With a 25 K-BB%, that works out to a 3.64 xERA that nearly matches his 3.74 ERA with everything else a bit lower, including contact neutral estimators around three. Peralta’s 111 Stuff+ grade works down to a 102 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 96 (96 Home)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.62
Case Mize still has some impressive pitch metrics (109 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) and PitchingBot grades all three pitches he throws more than 10% of the time above average. But with a 15.9 K% and barely above average ground ball rate (46.7%), I’m getting tired of waiting for him to come around and am starting to become skeptical this is his year. Estimators all above four.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 1
B30: 4.01
Rockies @ Cardinals
Feltner has estimators two runs below his 6.22 ERA and I’m sure Gibson will be boringly fine against the Rockies, but I have no desire to delve further into this game.
Opp wRC+: 106/78 (25.9 K%)
DEF: 6/-1.5
B30: 4.82/3.82
Guardians @ Marlins
Gotta admit, Ben Lively (15.8 K-BB%) has been more interesting than years past, but not 2.84 ERA interesting. In fact, he has just a 74 Stuff+ grade with estimators ranging from a 3.59 xERA to a 4.30 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 90 (89 Road)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.01
Through three starts, Roddery Munoz had an 18.2 K-BB%, but allowed nine barrels (22.5%) before being optioned. He’s since struck out 22 of 102 batters with four walks and three home runs at AAA. The 24 year-old is a marginally regarded prospect (40 FV Fangraphs) with the potential for a nasty fastball/slider combo that usually spells bullpen.
Opp wRC+: 101 (18.9 K%)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.50
Dodgers @ Yankees
Gavin Stone has struck out 13 of his last 44 Mets and Rockies over 12 scoreless innings, driving his strikeout rate up to…18.6% on the season. A strong contact manager (5.3% Barrels/BBE, 31.6 Hard%), Stone still only has one non-FIP estimator within a run of his 2.90 ERA (3.86 dERA). He has a 78.9 LOB% and just four of 10 barrels have left the yard.
Opp wRC+: 130 (9.9 K-BB%, 16.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.77
Nestor Cortes has just one quality start among his last five, but that only seems to serve pulling his 3.46 ERA closer estimators ranging from a 3.18 xERA (45.8% hard contact rate, very odd) to a 4.32 dERA with a 19.4 K-BB%. I’m having trouble conceiving that his xERA is the only estimator lower than his ERA with that hard hit rate.
Opp wRC+: 132 (18.9 K%)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.87
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Ryne Nelson held the Giants to just two runs over 7.2 innings last time out, but has struck out just four of 52 since shutting out the Dodgers for five innings. He’s down to a 14.9 K% with a 43.2% hard contact rate.
Opp wRC+: 119 (18.5 K%)
DEF: 16
B30: 4.07
Go figure. Matt Waldron didn’t have the hard knuckler working for the first time in several starts, but still allowed a single run to the Angels over 6.1 innings. The guy has a 65 grade sweeper (PB) too! Six runs over his last 29.1 innings with a 25.7 K-BB%.
Opp wRC+: 95 (137 L7 days)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.29
Astros @ Angels
Hunter Brown has three straight quality starts and a 21.8 K-BB% over his last five, as he turns things around. A 4.16 xERA is now his only non-FIP estimator above four with 11 home runs, but only nine barrels!!
Opp wRC+: 87 (47 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.62
Tyler Anderson has a 16.3 K% with an 11.7 SwStr%. He has a 2.37 ERA with a 5.8 K-BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE. No estimators within two runs (.210 BABIP, 88.7 LOB%). He does, however, have a 58 grade changeup (PB). He throws it 34.6% of the time and will be facing a nearly entirely right-handed lineup that struggles against changeups (-0.67 wCH/C is fourth worst).
Opp wRC+: 109 (15.9 K%)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.29
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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