More run good on Thursday, but at least the way some of these games are going down have me convinced the process is still right. A 3.68% gain on the closing line in Washington, where the Nationals take a 2-0 lead in the 6th and immediately blow it. Javier Assad strikes out seven more batters with just seven swings and misses. I'll go broke on this hill. He has a good, but not elite swinging strike rate. The Cardinals barrel the crap out of the ball, one robbed home run, several warning track outs, 0 for 7 with RISP and 11 left on base, falling three runs short of their total.
Onto a 14 game Friday, absent the two teams they kicked out of the country.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Twins @ Pirates
Four home runs, six barrels for the Astros against Joe Ryan in his last start. Looking at the pitch chart, there were some fat fastballs and sliders, not much on the edges. It happens to him occasionally and not surprised it happened in that park. Still has a 23.1 K-BB%. Up to 10.7% Barrels/BBE, he still has a 3.11 xERA that’s below his 3.38 ERA and matches Ryan’s 3.10 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 80
DEF: 5
B30: 4.31
Five straight quality starts for Mitch Keller (33.2 IP – 132 BF – 5 ER – 1 HR – 5 BB – 27 K). Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers in that run. That’s some pretty excellent command. Just a 14.8 K-BB% on the season with six of 17 barrels leaving the yard. The 3.46 FIP matches the 3.42 ERA. Everything else is between 3.91 (xFIP) and 4.43 (dERA).
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -14
B30: 4.34
Keller is on a hot run & Ryan got roughed up last time out, but there’s no doubt who the better pitcher, offense and defense are here. F5 line too low (-118). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 3:40 EST: 70 degrees with a double digit wind out to left. Olivarez in for McCutchen, Grandal in for Tellez. Santana in for Kirilloff. A 2.77% gain on MIN F5.
Brewers @ Tigers
Freddy Peralta? Maybe? Brewers have become one of those teams that doesn’t like to tell us these things early. He’s only completed six innings five times this year, once in his last four starts and has allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE, despite a 33.8% hard contact rate. With a 25 K-BB%, that works out to a 3.64 xERA that nearly matches his 3.74 ERA with everything else a bit lower, including contact neutral estimators around three. Peralta’s 111 Stuff+ grade works down to a 102 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.62
Two of Reese Olson’s three home runs were surrendered in his last start at Fenway. Just one barrel, but nine on the year still leaves him at a 33% HR/Barrel rate, which is a stat I just completely made up. Aside from that, his K-BB has decreased to 12.7% this year, yet everyone thinks he’s having a breakout year with a 2.48 ERA (.247 BABIP, five unearned runs to go along with the three home runs). The opposite of Peralta (5.1% Barrels/BBE, 46.3% hard contact rate), but a 54.5 GB% gives him a 3.29 xERA and keeps all estimators below four. Olson’s fastball (25%, 1.2 RV/100, 37 PB grade) could be a point of contention against the Brew Crew (0.13 wFA/C 9th), while he also has slightly subpar Stuff+ (93) and Pitching+ (98) grades.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 1
B30: 4.01
Update 4:25 EST: Just below 70, double digit wind out to left. Myers pitches for Milwaukee.
Braves @ Nationals
Chris Sale did WTF last time out? Eight runs? Three barrels? Four strikeouts? It was the A’s?? Was he awake? I gotta see this game log. Pitch locations don’t look too bad, but the A’s appeared to spit on everything, but the fastball and that’s where the damage came from. Seems more good for you A’s than what happened to Sale. Dude is still pumping a 26.8 K-BB% with just eight barrels (4.6%) and a 30.1% hard hit rate. All estimators are at least one-third of a run below his 3.06 ERA. Might not have the same fastball (39.2%, -0.1 RV/100, 57 PB grade) problem against the Nationals. They’re fifth worst against that pitch (-0.44 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 79 (6.5 HR/FB)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.84
Four quality starts with no more than two runs for Jake Irvin over his last five with a 22.2 K-BB% over this span that brings his season rate up to 17.5%. With a 43% hard contact rate, a 4.13 xERA is his only estimator more than one-third of a run removed from a 3.39 ERA. He misses enough bats, but rarely walks anyone (4.4%).
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.96
This is going to look like a contradiction, but I have the Braves as healthy favorite here, just not this healthy. Sale has been great. I’m not really concerned about his last outing, but Irvin has been good too. Braves have a larger offensive edge and smaller defensive one with bullpens a wash. It’s just too much (+188).
Update 4 EST: 80 degrees with wind near 10 mph right to left. A 1.51% gain on WAS ML.
Orioles @ Rays
The Orioles don’t know who’s pitching. Hyde said there would be a lot of TBDs in June. You don’t want to tell us who’s pitching? I’ll pick a pitcher for you. Some of us have work to do. Looks at all available pitchers. Here’s a guy who threw five innings on May 31st. Julio Teheran. That’s who I’ve decided is pitching for the Orioles tomorrow. Only Steamer and Zips are even projecting him. Both around five.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.42
Aaron Civale hasn’t completed six innings since mid-April. Run prevention has been a bit better of late, but he still has a 66.1 LOB% and 11 of his 14 barrels (7.5%) have been home runs, which drives his ERA (5.37) more than a run above non-FIP estimators. Don’t throw your fastball (13%, -5 RV/100, 29 PB grade) to the Orioles (0.34 wFA/C 6th).
Opp wRC+: 109 (20 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.73
Update 3:50 EST: Irvin starts for Baltimore.
Dodgers @ Yankees
My immediate thought is concern for that fastball in this park against those guys. Teams Yoshi Yama has pitched well against over his last seven starts include Washington, Arizona (2x), Miami and Colorado. He really hasn’t done much against good offenses. Heck, he hasn’t even really faced many. With a 45.2% hard contact rate, a 3.37 xERA matches his 3.32 ERA with everything else below three (23.2 K-BB%). All three of Yamamoto’s main pitches exceed a 50 PB grade, but it’s a bit telling that he has a sub-par 98 Stuff+ grade, but 107 Pitching+ score. The Yankees are a top 10 offense against fastballs too (0.29 wFA/C). They’re currently dissecting Pablo Lopez as a write this.
Opp wRC+: 130 (10.2 K-BB%, 16.7 HR/FB).
DEF: 5
B30: 3.77
There are some intelligent people who have nice things to say about Cody Poteet, though projection systems peg him around four and a half. He’s struck out 10 of 42 batters with just a single walk and barrel, but just a 7.7 SwStr%. Seems like a decent command guy. His first two outings earned a 3.75 Bot ERA and 88 Stuff+, but 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 116 (116 Road)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.87
DFS Notes: We finish the work week with a pair of domes (almost certainly both closed) on a 10 game slate with one are of slight concern (Royals), but the prevailing theme being that the wind is blowing out almost universally. Yet, not a single team reaches five implied runs with only three above four and a half and nearly half the board below four. I believe there’s a clear top pitcher on this slate with several other interesting arms. Believe it or not, pricing makes outfields tough to fill tonight without many strong values.
We start with mid-70s temps and a 10 mph wind out to center in the Bronx. The Dodgers top the board at 4.82 implied runs with the Yankees middle of the board at 4.18. I have Yamamoto as a top three pitcher on this board, but an adequately priced one. I’d go underweight with some exposure in multi-entry and Poteet is a tough roster here, especially at $6.1K. Only 11 MLB innings since 2022, so not much to go on, but Ohtani (198 wRC+, .365 ISO v RHP since last year) and Betts (161, .231) are still likely top bats here, though potentially unaffordable ones. I still have Judge (181, .348) and Soto (175, .281) (if active) as the top two bats on the slate. Look again at Yamamoto’s hard contact rate. And he actually has a reverse split, which Statcast confirms, but drops it down to 10 points with batters from both sides slightly below a .300 xwOBA. I’m not sure I’m all that interested in anyone else in this game. Holmes threw 22 pitches last night with Weaver (21), Hamilton (18) and Kahnle (46) all working two of the last three. Evan Phillips threw 31 pitches last night with nearly everyone else in the Dodger pen working too, but fewer than 20 pitches with several days off beforehand.
Update 4:15 EST: Hitter friendly Todd Tichenor behind the plate. No Soto. Line movement towards Dodgers. Doesn't change DFS evaluation of Yamamoto much. Still a tough spot, top three pitcher, probably adequately priced.
Cubs @ Reds
A pair of left-handed division rivals, who have both spent some time on the injured list and struggled to readjust this year. Justin Steele more recently allowed a single earned run to the Reds, but walked four with as many unearned runs. That was a rain soaked game at Wrigley that had to deal with a long delay. He had just seemingly gotten on track with seven innings of shutout ball against the Brewers with three hits and eight strikeouts the start before too. It’s a bit unfortunate that six of Steele’s seven barrels (6.4%) have become home runs. A 4.42 FIP is his only estimator above a 4.10 ERA with a 15.6 K-BB%, but only a 3.47 xERA runs more than a quarter run below. Pitch modeling is much more optimistic about Steele returning to form. All three pitches he’s thrown more than 20 times this year grade 60 or higher via PitchingBot (2.28 ERA) with the slider (29.4%, -1.4 RV/100, 65 grade) particularly interesting here because the Reds are the fourth worst offense in the league against that pitch (-0.65 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 103 (9.4 K-BB%, 157 L7 days)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.69
Nick Lodolo has struck out just six of 48 batters since returning from his second IL stint this year. A sub-7.5 SwStr% in both games, they were his first two starts below 11% this year. Ironically, they were also the first two starts he averaged more than 94 mph on his fastball since late 2022 too. He increased his usage of it over 50% in each start (49.4% on the year). Like Steele, Lodolo has PB grades from 56 to 63 on his main three pitches, including that fastball (48.7%, 0.3 RV/100, 63 grade), a pitch the Cubs have really struggled to hit (-0.3 wFA/C is bottom third of the league). He still owns a 20.8 K-BB% and 5.7% Barrels/BBE on the season, producing estimators all within a half run of his 3.11 ERA, a 2.95 xERA the only one below that mark.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.24
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a double digit wind out to left. The Reds are fourth from the top at 4.36 implied runs with the Cubs smack in the middle at 4.14. The environment and Lodolo’s insane pricing kill pitching for me here. Especially the way each has struggled to get on track after injuries. On the other side, I’m not all that excited with bats either. It’s a shame to have to punt this park on any slate. Stuart Fairchild (120 wRC+, .145 ISO v LHP since last year) is a sub-$3K potential leadoff bat, but RHBs are within three points of a .290 wOBA and xwOBA against Steele since last year. Three days in a row for Cruz (27).
Update 4:35 EST: Hoerner out, LH Busch in. Wisdom bats leadoff.
Guardians @ Marlins
Logan Allen was rained out on Wednesday, when he was supposed to work behind Nick Sandlin. He has a pair of seven run outings over his last five, but also a pair of six inning shutout starts. The overall numbers are not very pretty. A 12.0 K-BB% is nearly league average, but with a 9.4 SwStr%, a 44.2 Z-O-Swing% that’s second worst on the board and 47% hard hit rate. A bit unfortunate that 12 of 18 barrels (9.7%) have left the yard, Allen still has an xERA (4.95) nearing five, but still nearly a run below his 5.83 ERA with contact neutral estimators in the low to mid-fours. As far as pitch modeling goes, Allen adds a below average sweeper (17.4%, -2.1 RV/100, 38 PB grade) and changeup (17.5%, 0.6 RV/100, 45 PB grade) to a 79 Stuff+ score.
Opp wRC+: 68 (5.6 BB%, 5.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.01
Ryan Weathers was coming off one run over 21 innings when the Rangers got to him for four last time out. However, he struck out 11 with a 20.8 SwStr% without a walk and is now up to a 15.2 K-BB% on the season (28.6% last three starts). The changeup (26.1%, 1 RV/100) and fastball (40.2%, 1.2 RV/100) are both above average pitches via PitchingBot. It’s just odd that the strikeouts are coming as the velocity has been sliding after starting the season with a large spike. Estimators are all above, but within half a run of his 3.41 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: -8
B30: 3.50
DFS Notes: A 102 park run factor with the roof closed according to Statcast, Both teams sit bottom half of the board at 3.75 implied runs. For the Marlins, it’s lack of offense. For the Guardians, it might be partially towards the recent rise of Weathers. Six of the projected Cleveland nine are below a 20 K% against LHP since last year and on the other side, Allen is a marginal pitcher who costs almost $8K. I like Dane Myers (137 wRC+, .170 ISO v LHP since LY) in a field devoid of value outfielders, if in the leadoff spot. RHBs are within seven points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Allen since last year. Fry (205, .298) is too expensive on DK, but barely above $3K on FD. RHBs have a .341 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against Weathers since last year. Barlow (38) two of last three days.
Update 4:45 EST: Brennan in for Kwan. Bats 7th, everyone ahead of him moves up a spot. Myers bats 6th. Xavier Edwards leads off. He has a 69 wRC+ v LHP in limited action.
Giants @ Rangers
Logan Webb isn’t the first pitcher to have an otherwise fine start ruined by Aaron Judge. He still completed seven innings for the seventh time in 13 starts last time out. He’s allowing a lot of hard contact (53.4%), but the ground ball rate is still higher (56.7%), along with a 14.4 K-BB%, which non-FIP estimators all above his ERA. Only a 4.79 xERA runs more than a half run so with just three of his 19 barrels (8.0%) leaving the park. Judge’s shot, the only one at home. It’s interesting to see the 112 Stuff+ grade with the low strikeout rate and so much hard contact. The changeup (35.8%, 1 RV/100, 61 PB grade) is the star of the show and one of few non-fastball type pitches the Rangers are below average against (-0.06 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.6 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.30
It was 6.1 shutout innings in Miami following six one-run innings in Minnesota for Michael Lorenzen. A season high 14.3 SwStr% against the Marlins still leaves his season rate (9.6%) below his walk rate (12%). Where Lorenzen has excelled is keeping the barrel off the ball (6.3%), though that still constructs a 4.25 FIP and 4.27 xERA that are the best of his estimators all well above a 2.96 ERA (.237 BABIP, 81.4 LOB%). PitchingBot (4.82 ERA) doesn’t believe he features a single above average pitch.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 6
B30: 4.27
DFS Notes: A closed roof 104 run factor, 114 open via Statcast three year park factors, the Giants (3.85) and Rangers (3.65) are both bottom half of the board offenses here. Not enough upside for Webb in a dangerous spot and Lorenzen is sufficiently priced at best. As one might suspect, Corey Seager (175 wRC+, .308 ISO v RHP since LY) is the top bat here. Webb has a small reverse split though (LHBs .274 wOBA, .302 xwOBA since LY), as does Lorenzen (RHBs .341 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), which gives Estrada (108, .171) and Chapman (96, .168) some FD value at exactly $3K.
Update 4:55 EST: Ramos bats leadoff & a decent value (99 wRC+ v RHP), Estrada & Wisely down to 8th and 9th. No Seager, Heim bats 2nd.
Mariners @ Royals
Not only has Bryce Miller’s new splitter, which we recently learned is several different splitters, helped him keep LHBs to a .280 wOBA this year, but according to PitchingBot, it’s an elite pitch (17.4%, 2.2 RV/100, 71 PB grade). It’s held batters to a .169 wOBA and .217 xwOBA. Miller has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three road starts, but that was in Houston, Baltimore and New York (AL). He has an 18.8 K-BB%, but significant problems with hard contact (45.2% with 12.9% Barrels/BBE), mostly on the sinker (19.7%, 0 RV/100, .350 wOBA, .407 xwOBA) that still receives a 57 PB grade. A .217 BABIP is responsible for Miller’s 3.18 ERA being well below estimators ranging from a 3.57 SIERA to a 4.10 xERA. Still a quality pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.1 K%, 115 Home & L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.60
Daniel Lynch has thrown 12 innings in the majors this year with a 17.4 K%, 4.3 BB% and 14.3% Barrels/BBE. Projections have him around a quarter of a run below five with a career 10 K-BB%, 9.2% Barrels/BBE and 43.3% hard contact rate.
Opp wRC+: 96 (25.8 K%)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.59
DFS Notes: This is the game with rain potential, which would really suck for reasons I’ll get to in a minute. Temps reach 80 degrees with a near double digit wind blowing out towards the left field foul pole. Despite dampening power, this is one of the sneakier positive run environments. The Royals (4.29) and Mariners (4.71) are both top six teams tonight. I feel Miller is overpriced in a tough spot. The Royals don’t strike out a lot. On the other side, I had trouble limiting myself to just four Mariners on FanDuel and went with the full five on DraftKings. Witt (126 wRC+, .223 ISO v RHP since last year) and Pasquantino (106, .209) are reasonable selections from the home side, though remember to regress Miller’s .347 wOBA and .385 xwOBA against LHBs since last year with the splitter dropping them nearly 100 points this year. Nearly my entire infield is Mariners with Julio Rodriguez (135 wRC+, .170 ISO v LHP since last year) one of my favorite outfield bats. He homered against Mason Miller the other night and may finally be getting back on track. I’m not going to list the entire lineup, but RHBs have a .305 wOBA, .331 xwOBA against Lynch since last year with LHBs at a .267 wOBA, .329 xwOBA. Crawford (124, .124) is my shortstop. Even if Lynch gets knocked early, the Royals have a very subpar pen. Munoz is injured and Stanek (40) has worked three of the last five.
Update 5:05 EST: Good news on the weather front. Looks like we should have a window and even an increase in temperature a few degrees. That's countered by Phil Cuzzi, one of the more pitcher friendly umpires.
Red Sox @ White Sox
Only once have the Red Sox allowed Cooper Criswell to exceed 20 batters, but he’s doing some quality work while he’s in there with all estimators at least one-third of a run below his 3.92 ERA (63.8 LOB%) behind a 17.2 K-BB%. PitchingBot suggests a pair of great pitches in his changeup (29.4%, 1.8 RV/100, 63 grade) and sinker (29.1%, 0.7 RV/100, 61 grade), resulting in an overall 108 Stuff+ score as well. The White Sox are a bottom three offense against both those pitches.
Opp wRC+: 76 (75 Home)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.36
Six straight quality starts with four runs allowed over 35 innings with a 30.1 K-BB% and 27.2% hard contact rate for Garrett Crochet. Allowing just 5.4% Barrels/BBE on the season, all estimators are more than half a run below his 3.49 ERA. The cutter is an elite pitch (24.2%, 2.2 RV/100, 70 PB grade) that helps forge a 2.48 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 100 (28.3 K%, 167 L7 days)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.41
DFS Notes: Low 70s with a double digit wind out to center. Both teams sit middle of the board at exactly four runs. Crochet is my top pitcher, as I imagine he will be for many. Refsndyer is the only projected Boston bat below a 23 K% v LHP since last year. Most expensive on FD (where I’m still using him), Crochet is $2K less and probably also the top value on DK. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA below .280 against him since last year, though Refsnyder (137 wRC+, .105 ISO v LHP since last year) and O’Neill (153, .202) may still have some value here on FD. Criswell’s workload issues in a tough environment take him off my pitching radar, though I’m not really interested in going against him either.
Update 5:15 EST: Added CWS u3.5 (+104). Criswell estimators around 3.5, CWS 75 wRC+ Hm & v RHP, BOS pen estimators sixth best MLB L30 days.
Rockies @ Cardinals
Austin Gomber’s 3.06 ERA is supported by a .236 BABIP and 88.5 LOB%, but challenged by a 9.2 K-BB%. Estimators are all more than a run and a quarter higher. Gomber throws a lot of slow stuff with only the fastball really awful (39.4%, 0.1 RV/100, 44 PB grade), but the Cardinals are terrible against those anyway (-0.71 wFA/C Is third worst). A 78 Stuff+ score improved to 97 Pitching+ with solid command.
Opp wRC+: 77 (19.4 K%, 7.7 HR/FB) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.82
Lance Lynn…fewer home runs (10.0 HR/FB), fewer strikeouts (21.2%), more walks (9.3%) and almost just as many barrels (8.7%, 46 Z-O-Swing%). A 3.23 ERA, but 82 Stuff+ (93 Pitching+) and not a single estimator below four.
Opp wRC+: 78 (25.9 K%)
DEF:-1.5
B30: 3.82
DFS Notes: Above 80 degrees without much wind to speak of probably makes this a positive run environment tonight. Yet, the Rockies bring up the bottom of the board (3.17), though the Cardinals (4.33) are fifth from the top. While I don’t think Lynn is terrible for $7.5K, the lack of strikeouts leaves me lukewarm at best. Colorado bats aren’t really on my radar either, though McMahon (104 wRC+, .204 ISO v RHP since last year) is a fine one off. With RHBs owning a wOBA and xwOBA above .330 against Gomber since last year and LHBs above .390, the Cardinals are my second favorite stack tonight and where I’d likely shift if Seattle becomes too risky. It didn’t work out results-wise last night, but they hit the ball hard. Only Nolan Gorman (127 wRC+, .234 ISO v LHP since LY) exceeds a .160 ISO against LHP since last season, among those projected and Goldy (118, .141) is the only other one above a 100 wRC+, but Gomber creates his own value. Kinley (39) has pitched three straight days, Beeks (45) and Vodnik (45) two in a row with Mears (31) and Carasiti (49) two of the last three. This is a great spot for the Cards against the league’s worst and most overworked bullpen.
Update 5:25 EST: Fermin in for Carlson.
Astros @ Angels
Framber Valdez has four quality starts over his last five attempts, three with seven innings, but he’s sitting on just a 16.9 K% (9.7 K-BB%) in six starts since the beginning of May. Most of his pitches still grade above average, but with nothing elite, while his 109 Stuff+ grade drops to a 100 Pitching+. Keeping nearly two-thirds of his contact on the ground (64.6%) allows him to generate hard contact on 50.3% of batted balls with just 4.4% Barrels/BBE. His 3.95 ERA matches a 3.99 xERA and 3.94 FIP with contact neutral estimators half a run lower.
Opp wRC+: 121 (46 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.62
Griffin Canning posted just his third quality start of the year last time out, all in his last six starts. With just a 16.4 K% (7.7 K-BB%) and questionable contact profile (8.9% Barrels/BBE, 41.6 Hard%), he needs the right matchups to succeed and this probably isn’t it (though it helps if Tucker remains out). This may be further amplified by his Canning’s fastball (32.3%, -1.8 RV/100, .400 wOBA, .416 xwOBA, 29 PB grade) against the second best offense against fastballs (0.56 wFA/C). All of Canning’s estimators are above his 4.69 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 112 (18.9 K%)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.29
DFS Notes: Below 70, but with a slight wind out to left-center probably keeps this a power friendly environment. The Astros are second on the board at 4.75 implied runs with the Angels a bottom half offense tonight (3.75). I’m leaning towards calling Valdez a strong value here for $8K with the potential for seven innings against a struggling offense that’s not as good as their numbers against LHP. Six of nine projected also exceed a 22.5 K% v LHP since last year. Alternatively, you could hedge with Rengifo (175 wRC+, .219 ISO v LHP since LY) and Adell (176, .450). O’Hoppe, Pillar, Ward and Neto also exceed a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO against LHP since last season. RHBs have a .284 wOBA, but .321 xwOBA against Valdez since last season. The Astros are my third favorite stack. Batters from either side are between a .315 and .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Canning since last year. Tucker (151 wRC+, .252 ISO v RHP since LY) and Alvarez (168, .296) are top bats on this board, along with Altuve (150, .196) and even Bregman (133, .188) as a strong value. We just may have to wait for a lineup with the Astros on the west coast and some battered players. Make sure you have swap outs if it comes after lock.
Update 6:10 EST: No Houston LU yet, LAA as expected. Line movement towards Angels.
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Four runs in each of Brandon Pfaadt’s last two starts in New York (NL) and Texas, but at least six innings in nine of his last 10 and up to a 19.0 K-BB% on the season with just 4.7% Barrels/BBE. This produces a 2.80 xERA a run and a half below his 4.32 ERA. In fact, all estimators are more than half a run below actual results. Pfaadt has stranded only 59% of his runners. He’s generated more popups (14) than barrels (10). PitchingBot grades his top two pitches (four-seam & sinker) 64 and 65 respectively with a 2.78 Bot ERA in addition to 105 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 118 (18.7 K%)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.07
While Michael King has shown flashes of the brilliance that led him to become a key piece in the Juan Soto trade, his first season in San Diego has lacked consistency. He’s been between four and seven strikeouts in every start except the two he was in double digits (Brewers & Dodgers ironically). With an ERA nearing four, he has four starts of at least seven innings with a single run or less. He’s allowed hard contact on just 33.8% of batted balls, but also walked 10.1% of the batters he’s faced (though just seven of his last 96). With 13 home runs and just 15 barrels, all non-FIP estimators are within a quarter run of that 3.82 ERA. PitchingBot gives him at least average grades on all offerings (3.65 Bot ERA), while the command (100 Pitching+) has been better than the stuff (93 Stuff+), despite the high walk rate.
Opp wRC+: 94 (124 L7 days)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.29
I think it would be fair to say that Michael King has been volatile, but average, while Pfaadt has been deserving of better. The Diamondbacks are behind offensively, but far ahead defensively. Knocking out the bullpens, where the Padres have a sizeable edge, I believe Arizona has some value F5 +116.
DFS Notes: Temps in the low to mid-60s with a light wind out to right and this is probably the most pitcher friendly environment on the slate with two capable pitchers facing contact prone offenses. The fact that the Padres so rarely strike out puts King’s upside a bit higher than Pfaadt’s for me and I’m using him behind Crochet for $8K on DK. In fact, I’d consider King a potential top three arm on this board. I still think Pfaadt has at least some value at the same price. These are a pair of bottom four offenses tonight, neither stretching much beyond three and a half implied runs. I have no interest in bats in this game. At least not in single entry. Sewald (49) has worked three of the last five though and Ginkel (52) two of the last three.
Update 5:50 EST: Pitcher friendly Estabrook behind the plate enhances King, Pfaadt. Each team replaces their fifth hitter (Solano in for the injured Machado, Grichuk in for Gurriel).
Blue Jays @ Athletics
Simply put, Chris Bassitt’s 4.13 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators without any dropping below four. His 12.9 K-BB% is similarly merely average. Pitch modeling, also average: 3.95 Bot ERA, 95 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+
Average.
Opp wRC+: 98 (26.4 K%, 113 Home)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.23
Merely 14.1 innings for Hogan Harris this season, but a 14.8 K-BB% and average contact profile with estimators ranging from a 3.77 SIERA to a 4.32 FIP. He generated 17 whiffs against the Rays in his first actual start of the season and the fastball gets a 67 PitchingBot grade with increased iVB from last season (induced vertical break). And the Blue Jays are a bottom third of the league offense against fastballs (-0.38 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 92 (8.2 K-BB%, 6.9 HR/FB, 63 L7 days)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.91
Huge defensive edge for Toronto....but that might be it. Where else can you be absolutely sure they have an edge in this game. I’ll take the home dog again (+114).
DFS Notes: Around 60 degrees, but with a double digit wind out to center. The A’s are second from the bottom (3.34) with the Blue Jays middle of the board (4.16), As already mentioned above, I don’t think the gap is that large. The only thing really going for Bassitt is Oakland’s lack of LHBs (.367, .351 wOBA since last year). That said, Brown and Andujar are the only projected A’s below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year and Schuemann the only one below a .148 ISO. I think Bassitt is sufficiently priced above $8K, though the A’s will provide some strikeouts. I think Hogan is interesting. The Jays don’t strike out much, but I don’t hate him in an SP2 spot for $6.5K. That said, he did struggle last year and batters from either side are between a .335 and .353 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Davis Schneider (169 wRC+, .367 ISO v LHP since last year) is still a nice value here. Jimenez threw 35 pitches for Oakland last night, Garcia (28) two in a row with Romero IL’d.
Update 6:20 EST: No Toronto LU yet. Massive 5.41% loss on OAK ML. Now confident they win easily.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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