I learned a very valuable and difficult, though thankfully not as costly as it could have been lesson on Sunday. The cloud is not as reliable as thought it to be. I assumed saving worksheets on Microsoft One Drive, rather than my hard drive would be a smart decision in case of a crash, but it turns out that I can no longer open my pitching worksheets saved on the cloud. It's odd because I can open everything else, but at least I had an older one available that I was able to rebuild. It took long enough that I'm very thankful Monday is only seven games. There are still some issues connections, but I'm hoping things will hold until the break. Frustrating to say the least and if I disappear for a few days, you'll know why.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Orioles @ Rays
It’s amazing that 28.9% of Corbin Burnes’s strikeouts have come in just two of his 13 starts. That’s 22 of 76 without more than six in any of the other 11 starts. Sustaining a 17.5 K-BB% and 30.9% hard contact rate, a 2.73 xERA is barely within half a run of his 2.26 ERA. Contact neutral estimators run as high as a 3.49 SIERA. The matchups here is the curveball (21.3%, 1.1 RV/100, 60 PB grade) against the sixth worst offense against curveballs (-0.62 wCU/C). Despite the lack of strikeouts, Burnes has collected eight straight quality starts. Half his contact has been on the ground with a 16.7 IFFB% and day’s best 29.1 Z-O-Swing%. He’s getting chases, but not as many punchouts.
Opp wRC+: 92 (8.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 8
B30: 4.03
Since shaking off the rust in his first start back from the IL, Ryan Pepiot has struck out 15 of 45 batters with a single walk and barrel (27.6% hard contact rate). The caveat being it was the A’s and Marlins. Pepiot has a 21.1 K-BB% nearly four points better than Burnes though, with a 79.7 Z-Contact% that’s easily best on the board. This is a good pitcher with all estimators at least a quarter run below his 3.96 ERA, very much comparable to the ones Burnes has put up. Both even have the same 117 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 112 (112 Road, 142 L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.92
The Orioles have a large offensive edge here, but my weighted estimators for Pepiot only have him exactly a quarter of a run behind. The Rays have disappointed this year, but I think Burnes is getting slightly too much respect and Pepiot not enough. Forced to play full game, as there’s no F5 available yet and the game dropped from +138 to +132 while I was writing this. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info drops.
Update 3:30 EST: Both pitchers have some reverse split, Burnes larger. The Rays have leaned into that with seven LHBs, the O's have done so by sitting Rutschman for McCann. A 2.34% gain on the Rays. This line seems to be on the nose now.
Rockies @ Twins
Dakota Hudson keeps the ball on the ground (53.9%) and in the park (6.3% Barrels/BBE). He also has just two more walks than strikeouts (0.7 K-BB%) with a 42.2% hard contact rate. Every single estimator is within half a run of his 5.25 ERA with only his 5.10 xFIP below it. Don’t throw the fastball (16.6%, -2.9 RV/100, 28 PB grade) to the Twins (0.53 wFA/C is third best MLB).
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 9
B30: 4.93
Chris Paddack has allowed four runs (two home runs, three barrels) to the Royals and then seven runs against the Yankees. The thing is, his last start was without a barrel, just six hits and two walks, yet also seven strikeouts (14.1 SwStr%). Statcast also says that he was sitting at 95 mph against the Yankees. That’s two mph above his season average and three and a half above his previous start against the Royals. Paddack has allowed 21 barrels (10%), but with a 16.4 K-BB%. Every single estimator is more than a run below his 5.26 xERA (.337 BABIP) with contact neutral ones slipping below three. Alternatively, Paddick should throw his fastball (41.5%, 0.8 RV/100, 61 PB grade) against the Rockies (-0.42 wFA/C is seventh worst MLB).
Opp wRC+: 80 (26 K%, 8.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: A six game slate features four domes and some cooler temperatures out west without much of a wind factor anywhere. Eight of 12 teams sit between four and four and a half implied run with only one team above that and none reaching five.
We start with temperatures around 70 with a light wind blowing in from left in Minnesota and a pair of outliers on this board. The Twins are the top team on the board (4.86 implied runs), while the Rockies are third from the bottom. It’s tremendously easy to stack those lefty platoon bats for the Twins. Batters from that side have a .370 wOBA and .383 xwOBA against RHP since last year. Kirilloff (121 wRC+, .189 ISO v RHP since last year), Larnach (116, .201) and Kepler (122, .215) are all less than $3K on FD and only the latter is more than $4K on DK. Royce Lewis (167, .298) has a 183 wRC+ since returning from the IL and RHBs are above a .315 wOBA, xwOBA against Hudson since last season too. Paddack may be my favorite value on the board on either site tonight, though I elected to pay up on FanDuel. He’s a pitcher with some upside in a great spot, coming off a start that may have looked worse than it was. I’m not dumb enough to call him low risk, but he could win someone a GPP. McMahon (102, .203) and Blackmon (92, .156) are less than $3K on FD, but that’s about as far as I’d go from that lineup. The top of the Minnesota pen (Duran, Jax, Alcala) all pitched Sunday and all are coming off at least two of last three, which could give Paddack a longer leash tonight. The top of the Colorado bullpen was heavily used prior to having Sunday off.
Update 3:55 EST: The hitter friendliest Alfonso Marquez presiding behind the plate. Jeffers/Buxton/Miranda out for MIN (all RHBs). With a 100 park Run Factor, neutral weather, friendly umpire, MIN 100 wRC+ Hm & v RHP, Hudson all estimators above five and COL worst bullpen estimators L30 days, I've played MIN o4.5 (-118). Castro (115, .173) becomes a great value out of the leadoff spot. Kirilloff loses value with the drop in the order.
Yankees @ Royals
Carlos Rodon punched out nine of 21 Twins last time out and now has a 22.7 K-BB% over his last eight starts and 16+ SwStr% in four of his last six. He’s becoming harder to ignore because with those peripherals, the contact profile (9.4% Barrels/BBE, 42.9% hard contact rate) isn’t as damaging. Less contact and fewer runners on when it does happen. That said, he still has a board worst 43.2 Z-O-Swing% and just a 32.5 GB%, which keeps season estimators ranging from a 3.86 SIERA to a 4.59 dERA well above a 3.08 ERA (.250 BABIP, 84.8 LOB%). Where Rodon has really excelled is pitch modeling with a 120 Stuff+ and 3.45 Bot ERA, which includes a near elite fastball (53.9%, 1.7 RV/100, 63 PB grade), one of the few pitches the Royals have struggled against this year (-0.25 wFA/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 111 (18.8%, 116 Home)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.02
Seth Lugo has very average pitch modeling metrics (98 Stuff+, 4.28 Bot ERA), but also a .250 BABIP and 87.4 LOB% keeping his estimators all at least a run and a third above his 2.13 ERA. In his case, only eight of 21 barrels (8.6%) have left the yard. Kansas City doesn’t treat power the same as Yankee Stadium. Lugo has struck out only 13 of 81 batters (7.9 SwStr%) in three straight road starts since his back to back double digit efforts.
Opp wRC+: 128 (10.1 K-BB%, 16.1 HR/FB)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.31
DFS Notes: Near 80 with a light wind in from center, the Yankees are second on the board (4.42) with the Royals smack in the middle (4.08) and maybe it surprises some people that I’m more on offense than pitching here. I think Rodon may be a tad over-priced against a tough lineup and while Kansas City suppresses power, it has a higher run factor than Yankee Stadium. Lugo is likely in the same boat. RHBs have just a .283 wOBA and .309 xwOBA against Lugo since last year. Judge (188 wRC+, .357 ISO v RHP since LY) is still my top bat on the board. LHBs are at .301, .328 and Soto (175, .281) would be top three if he plays. In between them is Bobby Witt (127, .235). RHBs have a .335 wOBA, .343 xwOBA against Rodon since last year and are still at a .309 wOBA this season with 10 of the 11 home runs he’s surrendered. In fact, where I’m paying up for pitching (FD) or paying up for bats (DK), I’m stacking some Royals next to cheap Twins, alongside Witt. Garcia (119, .175), Velazquez (104, .214), Blanco (142, .254) and Loftin (167, .091) are my main value plays. Perez is fine too, but doesn’t really hit LHP well (89, .152). Virtually everyone in the Kansas City bullpen has been heavily worked in recent days, while both Holmes and Weaver are coming off 24 pitches on Sunday, the former three of the last four.
Update 6:30 EST: Easy part first. Pasquantino out. No LHBs in the KCR LU. Never helps to have him on the bench, but probably the ideal spot to rest him. The Yankees have Soto back, but are otherwise resting everyone else (Judge, Rizzo, Wells, Stanton). I've got some lineups to reconstruct now.
Blue Jays @ Brewers
Five straight quality starts, three of seven innings, for Jose Berrios, though he didn’t help his run and a quarter plus ERA/estimator gap with more walks (three) than strikeouts (two) last time out. He hasn’t walked many (6.6%), but isn’t missing bats (18.9 K%, 8.3 SwStr%) or limiting hard contact (44.3%). Berrios has a 2.80 ERA without an estimator below four (87.8 LOB%). Pitch modeling is only slightly more optimistic than estimators (3.93 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+), but the one pitch Milwaukee has struggled against this year (-0.52 wCU/C is bottom third of the league) is the curveball (32.8%, -0.3 RV/100 classified as a slurve on Statcast), Berrios’s best grade pitch (56).
Opp wRC+: 117 (125 Road)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.38
The Brewers have employed an opener ahead of Colin Rea in two of his last three starts against lineups that are left-handed heavy at the top (Boston, Philadelphia), not at all the case with Toronto. This is because LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Rea since last year, but RHBs are below .315. This makes us more likely to see guys like Vogelbach and Biggio, but even with both of them in the lineup, that would only make four and they aren’t really the type of LHBs you fear. Rea has only allowed a pair of runs over 9.2 innings in bulk roles in those two games, but with one more walk (five) than strikeouts (four). Just eight of 21 barrels (10%) have left the park and Rea has stranded 80.7% of his runners, allowing for a 3.53 ERA more than a run below all estimators. PitchingBot grades every offering he throws more than six percent of the time below average to go with 85 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 101 (19.4 K%, 8.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.55
Even with all his faults, Berrios is still better than Rea, although the latter does have those platoon issues in his favor here. The Milwaukee offense has also been a hell of a lot better than the Toronto one this season, while they have one of the few defenses that can rival Toronto’s, alongside a much better bullpen. Just -104 at home here is a bit low.
DFS Notes: Be aware that Milwaukee opts to open the roof often in decent weather. Statcast’s most recent three year park factors has the run environment staying exactly the same now (98) on average, though right-handed power benefits. Both teams are middle of the board at exactly four runs. As mentioned above, Rea is better against RHBs, about league average. While I don’t think he has any particular value against a contact prone lineup, Toronto bats don’t really standout there either, unless Varsho (90 wRC+, .210 ISO v RHP since LY) is batting second again. Berrios is sufficiently priced as well against a good offense. LHBs have a .318 wOBA and .328 xwOBA against him since last year, RHBs .286, but .326. Yelich, Hoskins and Ortiz exceed a 130 wRC+, .190 ISO v RHP since last season. Bauers and Adames fit the latter category, but are just below a 100 wRC+. Nearly everyone in the Toronto pen threw on Sunday, but had light usage the few days before, while most of the Milwaukee pen threw Saturday, but had Sunday off.
Update 5:55 EST: Roof closed. Horwitz bats second, Jays add third LHB in Vogelbach. Turner, Kiermaier, Jansen out. A 3.56% gain on MIL.
Athletics @ Padres
Eight of Joey Etes’s 14 runs allowed were surrendered to the Astros in his second starts, when he both walked and struck out four. He’s been above a 22 K-BB% in three of the other four starts (17.8% overall), though there are some contact profile issues we need to be aware of. Estes has twice allowed three barrels already and not in that Houston game. He’s also allowed hard contact on 44% of batted balls with just a 17.3 GB%. This creates some odd estimators early on, including a 5.50 dERA that’s the one above a 4.67 ERA, but also a surprising 3.08 xERA, despite the contact issues. Pitch modeling thinks the arsenal plays above average (101 Stuff+) with great command (107 Pitching+, 3.62 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 122 (18.3 K%)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 4.08
Although Dylan Cease posted his first quality start in five tries last time out, he still allowed three runs to the Angels over six innings and now 18 over his last 27.2 innings. Culprits are a .333 BABIP, 66.4 LOB% and six of seven barrels leaving the yard. His 22.5 K-BB% over this span is just a smidgen below his 23.3% season rate. Not a ground ball pitcher (33.9%), Cease has somehow allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE with just a 34.2% hard hit rate. Thirty percent of his hard contact have been barrels. Estimators running only as high as a 3.27 xERA are at least a quarter of a run below Cease’s 3.51 ERA. Pitch modeling supports the underlying numbers with a 121 Stuff+ score and 107 Pitching+. Both his fastball (43.6%, 0.6 RV/100, 56 PB grade) and slider (41.9%, 0.5 RV/100, 57 PB grade) grade well and I’d tell you about how bad Oakland is against those pitches, but there are none they are above average against.
Opp wRC+: 94 (26.5%, 34 L7 days)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.37
DFS Notes: We get to the pitcher friendly portion of the board with temps below 70 in all three spots, which are negative run environments in a neutral setting. Mid-60s in San Diego without wind concerns. Dylan Cease is my top pitcher on the board and the guy I’m paying up for on FanDuel. I believe him to be a fine value on DraftKings as well, but elected to go with two lower priced arms, though that could change with later information. The A’s are the low team on the board (2.79) with the Padres third from the top (4.21). Five in the projected Oakland lineup exceed a 28 K% against RHP since last season. While I’m intrigued by Estes overall, this is a terrible spot for him (or any RHP). We’re also seeing a fairly extreme platoon split out of him (LHBs .366 wOBA, .365 xwOBA w/ RHBs below .290). Assuming Machado is back, Peralta would be the only projected San Diego bat below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year, but nobody reaches a .200 ISO. In fact, only Machado, Cronenworth and Tatis exceed a .134 ISO against RHP since last year. Arraez (141, .113) is one of my favorite first base bats tonight. Miller (54) and Adams (67) have worked three of the last five.
Update 6 EST: Solano in for Peralta, despite Estes's large split. Gives SDP five RHBs.
White Sox @ Mariners
Erick Fedde has struck out 21 of his last 74 batters and had a season high 18.3 SwStr% against the Cubs last time out. The 23.5 K% is not entirely supported by an 8.6 SwStr% and league average 16.4 CStr%, though it’s no longer significantly outside an acceptable range. Estimators all within a half run of his 3.27 ERA, running only as high as a 3.63 SIERA would be expected to rise, but perhaps remain below four. With nearly half his contact on the ground as well (48.4%), there’s no doubt this is a superior pitcher than the one who pitched Washington. It would be hard for him to hold a major league job and not be. Ironically, pitch modeling sees his arsenal as slightly worse than estimators suggest they are as well (3.71 Bot ERA, 101 Bot ERA). More sweepers (21.3%, 0.2 RV/100, 56 PB grade) and fewer sinkers (30.7%, -0.2 RV/100, 45 PG grade) against the Mariners, as they crush the latter (0.49 wSI/C is fourth best MLB), but not the former (-0.7 wSL/C is fourth worst MLB).
Opp wRC+: 95 (28.1 K%)
DEF: -15
B30: 4.19
Logan Gilbert has struck out just 15 of his last 99 batters, though with only a pair of walks. Gilbert has recorded seventh inning outs in eight of his 13 starts with great pitch modeling metrics, including a 120 Stuff+ grade, that, unfortunately works it’s way down to a 101 Stuff+, though everything he’s thrown more than 17 times receives PitchingBot grades between 52 and 56. With a 17.4 K-BB%, estimators ranging from a 3.31 dERA to a 3.63 SIERA & FIP.
Opp wRC+: 79 (76 Road)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.81
I can’t say that the Mariners don’t have edges everywhere in this game, but they’re not massive edges with perhaps pitching being the smallest. I’m not sure the Mariners need to be this large a favorite (+190) against anyone at this point.
DFS Notes: Generally the most negative run environment in the league with the roof open and even worse with it closed, the White Sox (2.81) are barely above the A’s for the cellar spot with the Mariners fourth from the top (4.19). Gilbert is my second best pitcher on the board, but far enough behind Cease and close enough to Paddack’s upside that I elected to go in another direction. He’s a fine ownership play though, it that’s an area of concern. Fedde is probably fine in this spot, but that’s about the best I have to say. No interest in Chicago bats, but batters from either side are between a .285 and .302 wOBA against Fedde this year, which isn’t far below average. I believe Crawford (128 wRC+, .189 ISO v RHP since last year) and Raleigh (114, .216) have some value at difficult positions tonight, especially catcher. We could add Luke Raley (128, .226) too.
Update 5:45 EST: A 1.23% gain on White Sox. Small leans towards u7 on game total & u5.5 on Fedde's K prop.
Astros @ Giants
SpAghetti left his last start after three innings with a calf injury and there’s a joke somewhere in there that I’m too tired to find. He’s had no issue missing bats since entering the rotation (25.5 K%, 12 SwStr%) with four of his nine barrels (6.2%) being surrendered to the Yankees. Walks (12.1%) have been the issue, though he’s had exactly two or three in every game rather than occasionally blowing up. That’s still too many. That said, the .370 BABIP is ridiculous. All estimators are more than one and one-third run below Arrighetti’s 5.79 ERA, mostly just above four. The arsenal appears below average (82 Stuff+) and it’s surprising that it improves to a 98 Pitching+ with command factored in. It seems the cutter (22%, 1.9 RV/100, 67 PB grade) is the star of this show and a pitch the Giants have struggled against (-0.31 wFC/C is bottom half of the league).
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.53
While Kyle Harrison has successfully eliminated his biggest problem while coming up through the ranks with just a 7.2 BB%, he’s not missing bats (21.2 K%, 9.4 SwStr%) as he used to and he’s not missing barrels either (10.7%). In fact, he’s allowed 11 barrels over his last four starts (15.3%) and now has a 4.66 xERA that’s the furthest estimator from his 4.18 ERA. Pitch modeling gives him a 91 Stuff+ grade (94 Pitching+), while PitchingBot grades only the fastball (63.1%, 0.9 RV/100, 51 PB grade) as average.
Opp wRC+: 111 (15.7 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.33
DFS Notes: Temps dip below 60 here. Certainly not enough strikeouts in the Houston lineup to consider Harrison, even with Tucker out. Arrighetti is my second favorite low priced arm behind Paddack tonight. I’m actually electing to roster both in my DK single entry right now. Six projected Giants exceed a 24 K% against RHP since last year. Both teams have exactly four run totals. I don’t have much (or really any) interest in bats from either side in this pitcher friendly environment. Hader threw 15 pitches on Sunday, while Abreu (41), Pressly (42) and Montero (27) are all coming off back to back days.
Update 6:50 EST: Not going to wait on HOU LU. Chapman & Flores sit. Finding Soto an easy swap for Judge overall. Added Willi Castro in a couple of spots, giving me more OF room. Onto Tuesday.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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