Eight games on Thursday, six of them during the day, which means no DFS notes and maybe no further updates at all with the very early start. I do have some obligations I've been holding off on and thought I would end up missing this post, but already having three pushed back starters in the bag from yesterday (Heaney, Estes, Clevinger), I pushed things off another day. It probably means I'm going to miss a day at some point soon (maybe even Friday), but following are 16 pitcher breakdowns for Thursday.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Giants @ Pirates
The Giants have not yet confirmed a pitcher for Thursday’s game. It might be a bullpen game. It might be Mason Black. It might be both or neither. In Black’s case, the 40 Future Value prospect (Fangraphs) has not impressed, striking out just eight of the 58 batters he’s faced (5.7 SwStr%, 94.3 Z-Contact%) with five walks. He’s also allowed five barrels (11.6%) with a 47.2 Z-O-Swing% and does not yet have a single pitch exceeding a 45 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 80 (83 Home, 89 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.39
Paul Skenes has struck out 18 of the 39 batters he’s faced with a 17.4 SwStr%, 74.5 Z-Contact% and those who have managed to make contact have put it on the ground 64.7% of the time. The fastball (40.2%), splitter (29.3%) and slider (20.7%) all have PitchingBot grades above 60, along with 111 Stuff+ and Pithcing+ grades…that aren’t as strong as Jones.
Opp wRC+: 103 (159, 4.4 K-BB% L7 days)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.23
Mariners @ Yankees
Luis Castillo walked four and struck out just two in Baltimore last time out and yeah, it’s the Orioles, but they’ve only been league average against RHP this year. We have fewer games and can check the fancy Statcast game log and that was easy. He was all over the place. It was still his seventh straight quality start with two earned runs or fewer. With an elite 20.7 K-BB%, he doesn’t generate ground balls (34.4%), but lots of infield flies (18.1 IFFB%), so, of course a 3.91 dERA is his only estimator even more than one-tenth of a run removed from a 3.28 ERA. Castillo’s entire arsenal ranges from 49 to 57 PitchingBot grades with a surprising 99 Stuff+ grade, but 106 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 127 (9.5 K-BB%, 15.9 HR/FB)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.61
Luis Gil capped off his fourth straight quality start with two runs allowed in total by popping 14 of the 24 White Sox he faced with a 19.4 SwStr%. His total from the three other games was just 13. Now sitting on a 31.2 K% with just a 30.6% hard contact rate and 5.6% Barrels/BBE, Gil has been working on decreasing his walk rate (13.6%) with two or fewer in four of his last five starts. All estimators are more than half a run above his 2.39 ERA (.217 BABIP), stretching as high as a 3.75 SIERA. The walks hold back some of his pitch grades, but it’s a 115 Stuff+ from a pure stuff standpoint.
Opp wRC+: 100 (28.7 K%)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.61
Rangers @ Phillies
Excuse me for a quick copy and paste here...
Andrew Heaney has a 17.2 K-BB% in a way he’s never really done it before and that’s with a 5.7 BB%. His 10.5 HR/FB is also the best mark in his career outside 2015. His 9.0% Barrels/BBE is right on his career average and a 44% hard contact rate is the third worst of his career though. Yet, a 3.99 xERA is his second best estimator (3.80 SIERA). I think he’s just locating better and that, along with his walk rate, can be captured with an 81 Stuff+ grade, but 99 Pitching+. It’s kind of strange because his 12.1 SwStr% is exactly his career rate too, so the strikeout rate should be higher. But his 4.43 ERA is also at his career rate, so who knows when he figures he’s not accomplishing anything and decides to do something else. I think he might be onto something though. This start may not further encourage him though.
Opp wRC+: 115 (112 Home)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.12
Zack Wheeler got right back on the horse (or mound) that threw him off in Miami (six runs, three walks, two strikeouts) and authored seven three hit innings against the Nats. He does have a 10.1 BB% over his last seven starts now, but still a 20.2 K-BB% over that span. There’s probably nothing to be alarmed about here with estimators running only as high as a 3.35 dERA, including a 2.65 ERA that nearly matches the 2.52 ERA. It’s PitchingBot grades above 60 for his four-seam, sinker and sweeper, comprising 71.6% of his pitches this year.
Opp wRC+: 107 (19.4 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.08
Update 12:35 EST: Temps near 80 with 5 mph wind out to right. TEX pen estimators 5th worst MLB L30 days. PHI 113/116 wRC+ Hm/v LHP. Played team total o4.5 (-108). No Seager for TEX.
Padres @ Reds
Matt Waldron last two starts against the Dodgers and Braves: 11 IP – 43 BF – 3 R – 1 HR – 4 BB – 16 K
He had allowed 11 barrels (8.6%) going into those starts and increased that total by just one. Knuckleballers are so unpredictable. This may be where he gets bombed. Things are looking up with a 14.1 K-BB% and 33.8% hard contact rate, despite a 44.5 Z-O-Swing%. All estimators are below his 5.00 ERA with only a 3.90 xERA by more than a run. Pitch modeling can’t tell us much because they don’t know what to do with these silly knuckleballs.
Opp wRC+: 77 (27.2 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.51
Conversely, Frankie Montas got smoked on the west coast: 9.2 IP – 47 BF – 8 R – 3 HR – 4 BB – 4K
How does a 55.6% hard contact rate in San Francisco and Los Angeles (NL) sound? Montas is down to just a 6.4 K-BB% for the season with a 4.60 xERA his best estimator. His game to game velocities have been inconsistent too, but pitch modeling hasn’t abandoned him yet (3.95 Bot ERA, 103 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 121 (19.4 K%)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.58
Montas’s best estimator is only 0.19 runs above Waldron’s worst. San Diego’s wRC+ against RHP is 44 points higher and they have the defensive edge, yet this game is pick’em (F5)? (Follow RockyJade for earlier info dumps.)
Update 12:55 EST: Nearly played u3.5 Ks for Montas. Just four L2 starts combined. Six of F7 in SD LU < 20 K% v RHP since LY. Absolutely no movement on SD F5. Still -110.
Braves @ Cubs
We don’t know who’s starting for Atlanta, but it might be Darius Vines, who has a 7.3 K-BB% with three barrels and a 43.8% hard hit rate in a pair of starts this year and a 13.7 K-BB% at AAA. The 26 year-old pitched another 20.1 innings for Atlanta with an 8.3 K-BB% last year. Stuff+ slaps a 75 grade on his work this year.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.94
We don’t know who’s starting for Chicago, but it might be Ben Brown, who’s been a bit of a swignman, starter and long reliever for the Cubs this year. He has a 13.2 K-BB% over four starts (17.8% overall), but the contact profile is a mess (10.1% Barrels/BBE, 58.4% hard hit rate), projecting a 4.78 xERA that’s his only estimator above four. Only two of 11 barrels have left the park. Can’t really bother with pitch modeling without isolating starts from relief.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -9
B30: 3.54
Update 1:05 EST: Near 70 degrees & near double digit wind in from right. A.J. Smith-Shawver instead of Vines. Nearly the same projection for either RHP. Both around four and a half.
Rockies @ Athletics
Ryan Felter has a 12.9 K-BB%, but 18 of his 42 strikeouts came in two games. He hasn’t exceeded four in any of his other seven starts, which includes his last five in a row. All 11 of his barrels (5%) have also come in four starts, including four in his last at home against the Giants, while he’s actually been a solid contact manager (3.74 xERA). This, despite a 44.6 Z-O-Swing%. With a .349 BABIP and 63.1 LOB%, his 5.69 ERA is more than a run and a half above all estimators. Pitch metrics see him as a perfectly average arm (4.10 Bot ERA, 100 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+), but his only above average pitch is a 54 grade slider (PB) that actually is his worst pitch by run value (-0.9 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 102 (26.7 K%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.78
Scuse me while I copy and paste our second pushed back pitcher today:
Houston pummeled Joey Estes for eight runs with as many walks (four) as strikeouts. Oddly, all three barrels came in his first start (in Seattle), where he allowed a single run. Pitch modeling doesn’t hate him so far (4.30 Bot ERA, 97 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+), but his slider (21.3%) is Estes’s only above average graded pitch (59 PB). That’s a bit ironic, considering Fangraphs (40 FV grade) has that as his second worst pitch of the four potentially.
Opp wRC+: 82 (19.1 K-BB%, 8.4 HR/FB)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.53
Update 1:35 EST: The pitcher friendliest (by ERA) Doug Eddings behind the plate. Bunch of guys sitting for both teams, including their usual cleanup hitting starting catchers. Daz Cameron sighting. Both pens are sort of worn out after 12 innings last night, but A's somehow held Mason Miller out of that game, which gives me a very slight lean towards OAK here, even though Estes has projections close to five.
Blue Jays @ Tigers
Kevin Gausman is on the upswing with a 21.5 K-BB% over his last four starts bringing him up to a healthy, though not Gausmanian like 16.8% on the season. He’s also allowed 14 barrels (10.4%), including six over this four start span. Contact has always been a problem, but his skills have been so tremendous the last few years that it hasn’t caused too much of a problem. This year, Gausman’s 5.38 xERA is actually his only estimator not only above, but not more than a run below his 4.89 ERA. Sure, he has a .369 BABIP, but might be the ultimate outlier at .322 since 2017. Though, that’s still not .369. The velocity remains down almost a mph from last year, but it’s the split-finger that has dropped most in whiff rate (43.2% to 31.6% this year). It still receives a haughty 62 PitchingBot grade, along with the four seamer, but guess which two pitches this Detroit offense has hammered? The splitter (0.52 wFS/C is ninth in a minor sample) and the four-seam fastball (0.59 wFA/C is fourth in the majors).
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 14
B30: 4.01
Jack Flaherty leads all qualified pitchers with a 29.4 K-BB%, most recently setting down nine of 24 Arizona bats. Seven of his nine starts have been quality starts and he’s allowed just a single barrel over his last four starts. Even the ground ball rate has spiked to 51.5% over his last five. Aside from all of Flaherty’s estimators being below three, he has a 57 grade slider (31.8%, 1.7 RV/100) and 56 grade heater (42.8%, -1.5 RV/100). Why mention this? Because the Blue Jays have struggled against sliders (-0.94 wSL/C is fourth worst) and fastballs (-0.38 wFA/C is sixth worst).
Opp wRC+: 94 (20.4 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.87
I actually make the Tigers a decent favorite in this game.
Update 4:20 EST: Vogelbach in for Turner, adds LHB (3) against Flaherty's split. Vierling in for Canha. Gained 1.92% on DET, thought it might be a bigger mover. Barksdale behind the plate, leans pitcher. Without any weather effect, could take game or TOR under too.
Orioles @ White Sox
A pair of shutout outings for Grayson Rodriguez last time out, striking out seven Mariners with three walks, but three of each against the Yankees. The seven run beating by the Angels immediately prior to that is the only time he’s allowed more than two runs all season. A healthy 17.3 K-BB% still suggests estimators ranging from a 3.44 FIP to 4.23 dERA, most just a bit more than half a run above his 3.15 ERA (82.3 LOB%). All four of the pitches he throws more than 10% of the time receive grades above 55 from Pitching Bot (2.69 ERA), led by a 62 grade heater (45.5%), which is a pitch the White Sox are worst in the majors against by more than one-third of a run (-1.32 wFA/C). They’re also worst in the majors against changeups (-1.55 wCH/C), which has been Gray-Rod’s best pitch by run value (23.4%, 2.8 RV/100, 58 PB grade). A 118 Stuff+ grade is sixth best among those with at least 40 IP.
Opp wRC+: 78 (79 Home, 80 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.30
Our last copy and paste:
Yup, I was shocked by that board leading 75 Z-Contact% for Mike Clevinger today too (not true on Thursday, Skenes 74.5%), even in just three starts because he’s faced the Rays, Guardians and Yankees. Pitch metrics suggest the fastball might be responsible (39.5%, 2.3 RV/100, 26.2 Whiff%, 56 PB grade). You’d think he’d be throwing harder and elevating it, but it’s a mph slower than last year and mostly located on the armside edge. Clevinger has struck out 10 of 39 Guardians and Yankees since walking four of 16 Rays without a strikeout in his first start. He had a 20.5 SwStr% against Cleveland, but just 9.5% against the Yankees (1.5% against the Rays). His three starts have been so different that I have no idea what to expect here.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.6 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.27
Update 4:35 EST: Is Nicky Lopez a guy the White Sox really NEED to get extra plate appearances to?
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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