Don't have time for a proper open for Friday because I had too much to say about a lot of pitchers with eight more to go (pitchers, not games). Maybe I'll think of something clever in the morning.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Blue Jays @ Tigers
Alek Manoah has struck out 19 of 75 batters (11.4 SwStr%) this season, walking just one of his last 51 after four in his first start. His velocity is up one mph from last season, in line with 2022. With three home runs on just four barrels, non-FIP estimators suggest he’s back (3.65 SIERA – 4.01 xFIP), but pitch modeling might tell us more at this point. And that gives us an 85 Stuff+ grade, which increases to only a 91 Pitching+ one with a single average pitch (51 slider), which is actually his worst pitch by actual run value (-1.9 RV/100). Pitching Bot has Manoah’s other three offerings below 45 with 4.75 Bot ERA. This is all a bit skeptical, but checking the Pitcher’s List report for his last outing, he seems to have located well. Do we expect that to continue? Who knows? I’ll leave him with this nugget. Manoah has thrown 76 four-seam fastballs (27.8%) and PitchingBot gives it a mere 36 grade. The Tigers have been the fourth best offense against such pitches (0.57 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 98 (117 L7 days)
DEF: 14
B30: 4.06
Since an initial outing, where Matt Manning shut out the Mets over 5.2 innings without a hit, but walked more (four) than he struck out (three), he’s allowed 15 runs over 22 innings (less than four runs in just one start, but no more than), most recently walking more (three) than he struck out (one) again, but most problematically, his 4.88 ERA is in well within a half run of all non-FIP estimators. Pitch modeling offers minor absolution here (99 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+) with grades of 53 (fastball) and 50 (sweeper) on the two pitches Manning throws more than 10% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.1 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.82
Update 4:15 EST: Maeda in for Manning. Probably not enough of a difference in the projections to make it worth the effort of looking too deeply into. Varsho bats leadoff.
Braves @ Pirates
Still not confirmed for Friday, but this time they really, REALLY think it’s going to be Darius Vines, who has a 7.3 K-BB% with three barrels and a 43.8% hard hit rate in a pair of starts this year and a 13.7 K-BB% at AAA. The 26 year-old pitched another 20.1 innings for Atlanta with an 8.3 K-BB% last year. Stuff+ slaps a 75 grade on his work this year. Projections work out to about four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 79 (24.9 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 4.03
Bailey Falter has allowed just five runs over his last 19 innings, striking out just six of 75 batters with as many walks, including a .163 BABIP and sub-5.0 SwStr% in his last two starts, both against the Cubs. That brought his season BABIP below .200 (.195) and his ERA (3.53) more than a run and a quarter below all estimators with just a 14.6 K% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE. A sub-.200 BABIP with a 43.9% hard hit rate is so ridiculous. An 82 Stuff+ grade confirms his likely good fortune.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: -8
B30: 4.20
Update 2:15 EST: Welp, not Vines again. Kerr gets the start, but it might be a piggybacking situation between the two.
Mariners @ Nationals
Since his 12 K game against the Diamondbacks, George Kirby has struck out just 16 of 96 batters with a pair of four barrel 40%+ hard hit rate starts, but also a pair of 0 barrel, sub-30% hard contact rates. The larger point is that he hasn’t hit an 11% swinging strike rate since that start after hitting it three times previously. He’s still not walking anyone, but a 15.6 K-BB% compares to 25.4% prior. His pitch mix hasn’t changed much recently, but his single game velocities from that start against Arizona on…96.4, 95.3, 94.5, 96.6, 95.5. That’s just a roller coaster that seems like a possible mechanical issue. If you’re more about full season numbers, estimators ranging from a 3.26 FIP to a 3.50 dERA are well below his 3.99 ERA and pitch grades (PB) on everything he throws at least 10% of the time remains above average (62 sinker) with 104 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ grades, which, I expected a larger gap.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -6
B30: 3.72
The Mackenzie Gore breakout has included a trio of four K or less starts over his last five, along with five unearned runs, but also a .361 BABIP on the season. Considering the lack of strikeouts have come against the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Phillies, I’m not going to hold it against him. Throw Texas, Houston and Philly in there again, he’s run a tough schedule without allowing more than three earned runs yet this year. With a 19.1 K-BB%, I believe estimators all within half a run of his 3.30 ERA may not even do him justice yet. Gore’s 67 grade fastball (54.7%) matches up well with a Seattle team in the bottom half of the league against such pitches (-0.24 wFA/C). Gore’s 116 Stuff+ grade is top 10 among those with at least 40 innings.
Opp wRC+: 100 (25.7 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.05
I’ll likely have a play on the Nats (full game or F5) once an F5 line is released and, you know, Gore is confirmed, unless there's a drastic change. I’m not sure whether sportsbooks are still undervaluing Gore here or overvaluing the Seattle offense, but there doesn’t appear to be a large enough gap anywhere to make Seattle a substantial road favorite in this one. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
Update 11:45 EST: That neither MLB.com, nor the sportsbooks have officially listed Gore yet is a bit concerning.
Update 2:45 EST: Nats have officially released their lineup w/ Gore. Full game (+130) is teh better value.
Update 4:20 EST: Less than two hours later, nearly a 4% gain on Nats down to +112.
Royals @ Rays
Seth Lugo first five starts: 31 IP – 126 BF – 7 R – 2 HR – 7 BB – 14 K (8.7% Barrels/BBE, 7.6 SwStr%, 43.3 GB%)
Seith Lugo last five starts: 34.1 IP – 130 BF – 7 R – 4 HR – 6 BB – 44 K (8.8% Barrels/BBE, 11 SwStr%, 40.5 GB%)
So the strikeout rate three times his SwStr% over his last five is likely as unsustainable as the one far less than double it previously. Here’s the most pertinent stat you need to know though..
Sliders first five starts: 13.9%
Sliders last five starts: 27.2%
The slider (11.9%) has a 31.1 Whiff%. The slurve (11.1%) has a 39.6 Whiff%. Good move.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 7
B30: 4.39
Tyler Alexander is expected to work behind an opener. He has only veered off strikeout totals of three or four in one of his nine outings this year (all at least four innings). His best estimator is a 4.34 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.3 K%, 161 L7 days)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.01
Graham Ashcraft last three starts: 14 IP – 66 BF – 9 R – 2 HR – 9 BB – 10 K
Since having a double digit SwStr% in each of his first three starts, he’s only done so once since. With a hard contact rate up to 45.8%, all season estimators are now above four and within one-third of a run of his 4.25 ERA. His 33 grade sinker (20.9%, -2.3 RV/100) might get hammered by the Dodgers (0.52 wSI/C is fourth best), though he did only allow three runs and hits to them his last time out.
Opp wRC+: 119 (116 Road)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.52
Rather than straight up attack Paxton here, which hasn’t been working, and he has been doing the most with what he’s still got recently, I’m going to attack both pitchers in a really tough park and go over 5.5 F5 (+110).
Update 3 EST: Armstrong opens for Alexander. Rays going with just a pair of LHBs and dropping Arozarena to sixth. Lugo does not have a reverse split, at least since the start of last season.
Dodgers @ Reds
Suddenly, James Paxton has walked just two of his last 71 batters and none of his last 46…to bring his K-BB% back to dead even. The biggest difference is that his F-Strike is up to 69% over these three starts, which has batters chasing more (36.9%). There’s really no difference in the contact profile or swing and miss or velocity. He’s just getting ahead in the count more often. Paxton has a 1.93 ERA/4.58 FIP/4.31 xFIP combo over this span.
Paxton in three May starts: 72 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+
Paxton in five April starts: 75 Stuff+, 85 Pitching+
So the stuff has actually gotten worse, but he’s just throwing earlier strikes. Got it.
Opp wRC+: 89 (10.9 K-BB%, 8.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.46
DFS Notes: On an 11 game slate with just a single protected environment in Arizona, weather is CRAZY tonight, including one likely washout in Chicago and another potential one in St Louis that could take both Imanaga AND Burnes off the board. Temperatures and wind are all over the place as well. Visiting offenses at Coors (6.24) and Cincinnati (5.77) nearly lap the field with the Red Sox exactly at five implied runs and only four more team reaching four and a half. Problematically, Burnes and then Imanaga are my top two pitchers on the board, but that doesn’t mean they’re irreplaceable with cheaper and potentially better values. Ones that get you to those coveted Philly and Dodger stacks, that are likely to be immensely popular should the forecasts hold.
We start in Cincinnati with temps around 80 and a light (less than 5 mph) wind in from right. With even the Reds at 4.72 implied runs, we have NO interest in pitching here. With RHBs above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Ashcraft since last year and even RHBs at .320+, the question is, how many Dodgers can you jam into your lineup, starting with Ohtani (205 wRC+, .371 ISO v RHP since last year) and Betts (164, .237). My answer was none. I chose to go in another direction, but perhaps that portends well for Dodger ownership vs Phillies. It’s a reasonable stance to take. I’m prepared to be utterly frustrated going against Paxton again. Batters from either side are between a .307 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Spencer Steer, Jeimer Candelario and Tyler Stephenson are the only trio in the projected lineup exceeding a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO v LHP since last season. The latter, the only one to exceed a 105 wRC+ among projected Reds over the last 30 days.
Update 3:40 EST: Dodgers leaning into Ashcraft's reverse split with just three LHBs. Line movement towards the Reds & a total increase overall, but F5 total has remained the same.
Giants @ Mets
Kyle Harrison has walked five in two of his last four starts. The other two were against Colorado. People thought spotty control might be the thing to hold him back, but with an 8.2 BB%, that’s been fine. It’s the inability to miss bats off (21.2 K%, 9.0 SwStr%) that’s the problem. He’s only allowed a single home run at home and pitched in mostly power dampening environments, keeping nine of his 14 barrels in the field of play. Non-FIP estimators are all more than a half run above his 3.60 ERA. And pitch modeling is not a fan either (92 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+) without PitchingBot giving him a single average grade. His worst has been the changeup (18.7%, -1.9 RV/100, 39 grade), a pitch the Mets have done some damage against in the top third of the league (0.59 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 90 (19.9 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.26
Christian Scott is coming off his first poor starts. What happened? A .400 BABIP and a 9.5 SwStr%, which isn’t too bad. The real surprise has been his 43 slider/sweeper grade. Actually, which pitch is PitchingBot grading? The slider (26%, 3.2 RV/100, 26.5 Whiff%) or the sweeper (16.4%, -1.8 RV/100, 29.2 Whiff%) and why did Scott abandon the latter his last time out. The overall arsenal gets a 103 Stuff+ grade, while the fastball has been getting the most whiffs (31.9% with a 57 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 104 (166 L7 days)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.8
DFS Notes: Near 80 with a light wind (around 5 mph) out to center, Citi Field is still likely one of the more negative run environments on the slate and Christian Scott is still too cheap for his talent level, considering the dud last time out. Another potential aid against the Giants, who have the fourth lowest run total on the board (3.48), is that the normally platoon heavy lineup is playing just three LHBs these days. Each of the last six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% against RHP since last season. No interest in San Francisco bats. I like Lindor (136 wRC+, .267 ISO v LHP since last year), Alonso (124, .296) and Martinez (151, .279) as an affordable middle of the order stack against Harrison (RHBs .302 wOBA, .323 xwOBA career) with the Mets at exactly four implied runs. For at least $8.5K, I believe Harrison may be more risk than reward at this point. It's been a very busy week for San Francisco relievers too.
Rangers @ Twins
Jose Urena (89 Stuff+) has struck out just eight of 74 batters in a starting role, but keeps the ball on the ground (54.8%). Over 877.2 career innings, he has just a 6.9 K-BB%. How has he survived so long? He gets ground balls (48.3%).
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 4
B30: 4.24
Bailey Ober occasionally throws in a stinker and he’s done so on three occasions this year so far. His fastball velocity was up earlier in the season, but has been down in the 91.5 mph range that it was stuck in last year over his last three starts. With that, he needs to be near perfect with it near and above the top of the zone because when he isn’t, it gets hammered. When it’s working, he has a 60 grade cutter and 72 grade changeup to pair with it.
Opp wRC+: 107 (19.4 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.03
DFS Notes: Mid 60s, but near 15 mph wind out to left center, the Twins are near the top of the board at 4.71 implied runs, the Rangers at just 3.79. Ground ball heavy pitchers are better stacked against with the hope that they’ll be BABIP’d, but Edouard Julien (137 wRC+, .211 ISO v RHP since last year) might be one of the top FD values on the board. Urias actually has a reverse split with RHBs above .350, but LHBs also a .337 wOBA and .317 xwOBA against him since last year. Everyone in this projected lineup exceeds a .165 ISO against RHP since last season with only Santana (88) and Correa (99) below a 109 wRC+. I’m sort of lukewarm on Ober. He can be good, but this is a tough lineup, the wind hurts him and he doesn’t generally pitch deep into games. I wouldn’t attack him aside from Seager (170, .286) and there are better SS options on the board today, but he does have some blowup potential for those playing multi entry.
Update 4:40 EST: Jeffers out. Tavares moves up to fifth.
Brewers @ Red Sox
Bryse Wilson has posted a mere 4.9 K-BB% with a 49.4% hard contact rate since entering the rotation. He has a 90 Stuff+ grade and one above average pitch (curveball 17.4%, 55 PB grade) over this span.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.97
Not only has Kutter Crawford been really good, though not 2.17 ERA good, but he’s finally gotten his cutter into positive territory with a 0.7 RV/100 and 51 PB grade. With a 16.3 K-BB% and 31.5% hard hit rate (6.2% Barrels/BBE) he has just a 3.21 xERA without a single estimator reaching four. He’s recorded at least a pair of sixth inning outs in seven straight with 106 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: -4
B30: 3.45
DFS Notes: In the 70s with a double digit wind out to right in only the third highest run environment on the slate tonight, the Red Sox are at 4.73 implied runs and could go under-owned here with the focus on Phillies (and then Dodgers). Abreu (150 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP since LY) and Duran (128, .215) are my favorite plays here, both cheaper than Devers (138, .261) with LHBs at a .336 wOBA, but .376 xwOBA against the struggling Wilson since last year. The Brewers have a healthy run total near four and a half, which makes Crawford a difficult roster around $9K, though he’s not really a pitcher I’m looking to attack either with batters from both sides below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last year. He does have a slight reverse split though, so Ortiz (160, .240) may still have some value.
Update 4:30 EST: Koenig opens for Wilson.
Orioles @ White Sox
Corbin Burnes went eight straight starts without exceeding six strikeouts, despite a 12.0 SwStr% over that span that includes two starts over 17%. He had just a 12.2 SwStr% when he struck out 11 Angels in his Baltimore debut. He snapped that streak, matching the 11 strikeouts (with a 19.1 SwStr%) against the Mariners last time out. Sure, the Mariners strike out more than any other team in baseball against RHP, but Burnes is still sitting on a 19.2 K-BB% on the season with a 51.9 GB%. His worst estimator is a 3.23 SIERA. His two main pitches (cutter, curveball) get PB grades of 60 and 59 respectively, while his 119 Stuff+ is fifth among qualifiers, his 110 Pitching+ behind only Jared Jones.
Opp wRC+: 77 (79 Home, 72 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.28
I was listening to the Chicago broadcast booth mention that renewed confidence was the biggest factor in Chris Flexen’s turnaround after a short stint in the bullpen. Oh, and as an aside, they also mentioned that his velocity was up near two mph too. Just a minor thing. Well, he dropped from 93 mph to 90.6 mph in his next start and since allowed 10 runs over 8.2 innings. He’s had at least a 1.5 mph difference in velocity from the prior start in each of his last three, which kind of makes him difficult to evaluate with his velocity bouncing around like that, but he’s barely pushed his K-BB into double digits (10.1%), which, with a 33.6% hard hit rate, presents a 4.37 xERA that’s more than a run below his 5.48 ERA. Unfortunately, that’s Flexen’s only estimator we can say that about. His 57 Stuff+ grade is worst among those with at least 40 IP (nobody else below 70).
Opp wRC+: 96 (20.5 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.14
DFS Notes: Should we get a miracle, Burnes would be the top pitcher on the board. Temps near 70 with a near 15 mph wind in from right. The Orioles have a 4.77 run total with the White Sox the low team on the board (2.73). Considering the pitcher friendly weather if they should play, Henderson (143 wRC+, .288 ISO v RHP since LY) would be my only bat of interest, as the Orioles have struggled against RHP, but you can’t ignore batters from either side above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Flexen since last year.
Update 4:45 EST: Risk in the two rain games has flipped flop. This one is a coin flip at this point. Hitter leaning ump (De Jesus). Rutschman & Cowser out, as O's lean more into Flexen's reverse split. CWS only three LHBs against Burnes's reverse split, but that's more necessity than choice.
Cubs @ Cardinals
Shota Imanaga is still sitting on a 0.84 ERA after nine starts, including seven innings in three of his last four and at least seven strikeouts in five straight. People were concerned what might happen once the weather improved at Wrigley with his high 92 mph fastballs and sub-40% ground ball rate, but right now, his 23.5 K-BB% 16.0 SwStr% and 79.8 Z-Contact% are dominating with estimators running only as high as a 3.14 xFIP. How elite has the fastball (58.2%) been? It’s running a 3 RV/100 and 67 PB grade, while the red hot Cardinals are still the second worst offense in baseball against heaters (-0.94 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 77 (19.4 K%, 129 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.58
Miles Mikolas still isn’t walking anyone (4.8%), but has ridden a 17 K% (6.8 SwStr%, 92.1 Z-Contact%) and 44.1% hard contact rate into a 5.77 ERA that’s nearly a run above all estimators ranging from a 4.11 xFIP to a 4.96 xERA. His pitch modeling includes offerings from a 42 grade curveball (13%) to w 59 grade changeup (10.1%), but just an 89 Stuff+ grade. Batters from either side have at least a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 97 (41 L7 days not even counting Thursday’s shutout)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.72
DFS Notes: With temps around 80 and a near double digit wind blowing out to left, this turns into a hitter friendly environment if it plays. I still think Imanaga is the second best pitcher on the board, but Scott fairly close and the far better value, considering the conditions, and the high risk only enhances that. The Cardinals are third from the bottom (3.39) with the Cubs stuck in the middle (4.11) with Mikolas. Batters from either side are between a .330 and .355 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and I would go overweight on Cubs in multi entry should this play. Suzuki (129 wRC+, .205 ISO v RHP since LY) is probably the best overall bat here.
Update 5:20 EST: This game is now the more concerning of the two potential washouts. Wisdom in for Happ. Mikolas really doesn't have much of a split.
Phillies @ Rockies
A few rough starts in Cristopher Sanchez’s last five, but also a pair of seven inning outings with a total of three runs allowed, including striking out eight Nationals last time out. A 61 GB% ensures that most of his hard contact (40.1%) is on the ground, though he’s still a bit fortunate that just one of nine barrels (6.1%) has left the yard. A 3.73 xERA is Sanchez’s worst estimator, while a 3.42 SIERA is his only additional one exceeding his 3.31 ERA, despite a league average 13.7 K-BB%. It’s the ground balls, of course, but a 90.9 Z-Contact% suggests the skills are unlikely to improve much. PitchingBot (3.09 Bot ERA) likes the arsenal more than Stuff+ (97), though that jumps up to a 104 Pitching+ with PB grades between 54 and 57 for his three major offerings. Sanchez does have issues with RHBs though (.334 wOBA, .331 xwOBA since LY).
Opp wRC+: 79 (81 Home)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.15
Ty Blach may be more Blach and Blue after this one. He’s struck out just 10 of the 88 batters he’s faced this year (5.2 SwStr%). His 93.7 Z-Contact% is worst on the board. With just one of his six barrels (8.1%) leaving the yard, his best non-FIP estimator is a 4.37 xFIP, due to the fact he only walked four. The Giants barreled him four times last time out in San Francisco. Blach has a 69 Stuff+ grade, in 99 innings since last year, RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 120 (116 Road)
DEF: 3
B30: 5.10
DFS Notes: Below 70, but a double digit wind out to left center and STACK YOUR RIGHT-HANDED PHILLIES! The Rockies have a 4.26 run team total, despite Sanchez’s issues with RHBs because they’re just so bad. The small sample of Hunter Goodman (191 wRC+, .571 ISO) is the only projected Colorado bat exceeding even an 80 wRC+ against LHP since last year. Ezequiel Tover (80, .193) is the only other one above a .180 ISO either. Sanchez is cheap enough to risk in an SP2 spot for $7.2K here. Sosa (137, .245) and Pache (132, .195) are cheap and get you access to the rest of the lineup with Realmuto (136, .254) my top overall bat on the board and Bohm (146, .163). There’s no reason to avoid the lefties (.282 wOBA, .314 xwOBA v Blach), but I’d lean towards RHBs, especially at mostly cheaper prices, first. The entire top of the Colorado pen has been heavily worked in recent days, while Alvarado (34) and Hoffman (38) have also thrown two of the last three.
Guardians @ Angels
Logan Allen has gone six shutout innings in each of his last two starts (White Sox, Twins), striking out 10 of 46 batters with a 13.1 SwStr% and no barrels. Generally more top and bottom, he worked almost exclusively armside to the Twins with everything except the fastball. A 12.3 K-BB% with a 45% hard contact rate (43.9 Z-O-Swing%) results in a 4.79 FIP that nearly matches his 4.91 ERA, but additional estimators below four and a half, dropping as low as a 4.16 xFIP. It’ll be interesting to see if he remains with the armside approach against the Angels and if so, does it work as beautifully again.
Opp wRC+: 117 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.02
Patrick Sandoval has completed six innings in three straight starts (five runs total, four in one start), his first three times this season. The fastballs (four-seam & sinker) continue to stink (combined -7.5 RV/100 and both a 44 PB grade), which is probably why he throws both only 16% of the time each. His slider, change and curve all grade 50 of better (PB). A healthy 14.7 K-BB% with just seven barrels allowed (4.6%) generates a 3.60 xERA, while none of his estimators reach four, all more than half a run below his 4.59 ERA (.351 BABIP).
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: -9
B30: 4.27
DFS Notes: A normally run neutral, but power friendly park, temps are near 60 with a near 10 mph wind out to center and despite each team being proficient against LHP, I’m leaning pitching here, specifically the home side with both teams at 3.75 implied runs. Both have been pitching well, but I trust Sandoval a bit more at the same price, a bit below $8K, though the bottom half of both orders may have some strikeouts in them, not normally something you can say about Cleveland and while they have handled LHP well this season from a wRC+ standpoint, there are several bats in that lineup that haven’t touched southpaws historically with only Naylor, Ramirez and Fry above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO since LY and Sandoval’s sub-.280 wOBA and xwOBA against LHBs over the same span nullifies one of them. Luis Rengifo (161, .206) has a 172 wRC+ L30 days and is still just $3K on FD. RHBs have a .345 wOBA and .336 xwOBA against Allen since last year.
Astros @ Athletics
Justin Verlander has struck out more than four only twice (Cubs, Tigers) and only exceeded an 8.2 SwStr% in those two starts. His 8.6 K-BB% is his worst mark since 2008 and his 11.2% Barrels/BBE is his worst mark of that Statcast era. It’s crazy that his barrels account for 37.9% of his hard contact, which results in a 3.89 xERA that matches his 3.97 ERA, while all other estimators exceed five. Even then, best case scenario is around four? Onto pitch modeling, there’s some dissention here. While he still gets elite 123 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ grades, PitchingBot gives his fastball, slider and curveball all below average grades, resulting in a 4.53 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 102 (26.7 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.60
Ross Stripling has just a 13.7 K%, though at least his 8.4 SwStr% suggests it should be a little higher. That’s slightly important because his 17.1 CStr% is fine, he doesn’t walk anybody (5.2%) and he’s been a great contact manager (3.7% Barrels/BBE, 33.5% hard contact) with a 4.25 xERA that’s not too far from Verlander’s. And, in fact, all of Stripling’s other estimators are better than Verlander’s. He even has better PitchingBot grades (4.14 Bot ERA), while his 89 Stuff+ doesn’t compare, but a 100 Pitching+ grade does.
Opp wRC+: 115 (17.7%)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.58
I don’t believe the sportsbooks have yet comprehended how far Verlander has fallen and by that I mean potentially league average pitcher. The xERA and Stuff+ grades are still optimistic, but that’s really the best case scenario. It’s amazing that Stripling actually has better estimators. I feel I have to play the sizeable home dog here (+142) and have to play F5 because of the pair of extra-inning games the Oakland pen just participated in.
DFS Notes: Temperatures below 60, but a double digit wind out to center probably keeps this a fairly negative run environment. The A’s are fifth lowest on the board (3.68) with the Astros the first team below five implied runs (4.82). I’m not on Houston bats, but considering the low strikeout rate, but strong contact profile for Stripling, you’re better off stacking if going in that direction. I’m off everything from the other side. Of course Verlander could pop a big one and win someone a GPP, but I think he’ll be over-owned in general, considering the risk in Burnes and Imagana. As mentioned, nearly the entire Oakland pen has thrown two of the last three days, though Miller (26 yesterday) may be the only one completely unavailable.
Update 6:55 EST: No HOU LU yet. Miguel Andujar sighting. No change on A's F5 from last night.
Marlins @ Diamondbacks
In his first two starts of the season against the Mets and Phillies, Braxton Garrett has allowed 11 runs over 9.2 innings, but with just a single barrel, 55.6 GB% and 21.3 K-BB%. He hasn’t generated a lot of swing and miss (9.4 SwStr%, 92.0 Z-Contact%) and pitch modeling is not a fan of this year’s work (90 Stuff+, 91 Pitching+), but with a career 17.1 K-BB%, it’s likely he’s still working off some rust and it’s not as if the defense helps him any.
Opp wRC+: 129 (18 K%)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 3.97
With his velocity trending upwards (now less than a mph below last season), Zac Gallen struck out 10 of 27 Tigers with a 19.4 SwStr%, though he also allowed a 47.1% hard contact rate. He’s sitting on exactly a 20 K-BB% with just 5.9% Barrels/BBE, despite a 92.5 Z-Contact% and 46.7% hard hit rate. We can’t even say that most of the hard contact is on the ground with a 40.7 GB%. However, a lot of the worst contact management games came while his velocity was down. Perhaps he’s turned a corner. Instead of working up towards his estimators, Gallen has simply improved the underlying numbers to come more in line with his 3.02 ERA. That said, all are still above that mark, though running only as high as a 3.60 xERA. His overall pitch metrics are still poor (96 Stuff+, 4.75 Bot ERA) with only his curveball (26.2%, 2.7 RV/100) receiving a PB grade exceeding 45.
Opp wRC+: 88 (115 L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 4.38
DFS Notes: The Marlins are the second lowest team on the board (3.17), but I think Gallen might be a bit too expensive above $10K on both sites. He’s been pitching better, but my preference is to pay down and buy bats. Miami bats have been better too and only offer marginal strikeout rates. Again, Gallen does have the upside to win a GPP though. Braxton is so cheap on DK that it’s worth consideration that he finally finds it tonight, but it’s a really tough spot, even with the roof closed. The Diamondbacks have a healthy 4.33 team run total and Garrett has had some issues with RHBs (.323 wOBA, .337 xwOBA since last year). I would have some Arizona exposure in multi, should his troubles continue and actually like a few Diamondbacks tonight. Grichuk (145 wRC+, .228 ISO v LHP since LY) is far too cheap on either site and Marte (159, .243) may be my favorite second baseman. Every projected RHB is either above a 110 wRC+ or .180 ISO v LHP or both.
Yankees @ Padres
While I won’t go as far as saying that both of these pitchers have returned to dominance, each has erased major doubts coming into the season. Six quality starts with two runs or less over Carlos Rodon’s last eight starts with exceptions in Baltimore and Toronto. The 16.7 K-BB% is a 4.1 point improvement on last season, but the contact profile is just as bad (10.8% Barrels/BBE, 45.9 Hard%), including 13 barrels (19.4%) with a 52.2% hard hit rate over his last four starts. A 3.88 SIERA is nearly a half a run better than his next best estimator (4.31 xFIP) in a group that’s not very impressive once you realize an 85.9 LOB% is doing most the work on a 3.27 ERA. He’s really not fooling many batters (43.3 Z-O-Swing%), despite an impressive 118 Stuff+ grade that drops to a 102 Pitching+ when location is included. PitchingBot (3.55 ERA) still believes in the fastball (55%, 1.8 RV/100, 62 grade) and slider (24.8%, -0.9 RV/100, 55 grade). Something has to be responsible for all that hard contact though.
Opp wRC+: 85 (19.6 K%)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.59
Yu Darvish has gone 24 scoreless innings with a 25 K-BB% (14.6 SwStr%), 29.8% hard contact rate and one barrel since his return from the IL. That includes 14 scoreless innings with just four hits and 16 strikeouts against the Dodgers and Braves last two times out. Let’s see if he can complete the hat trick against the Yankees. With a 17.9 K-BB% and just 4.0% Barrels/BBE, Darvish’s worst estimator is a 3.59 SIERA. Pitch modeling is more neutral on his work (98 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+, 3.92 Bot ERA), but it’s difficult to pick out which individual pitches may have improved, as he doesn’t throw anything even 25% of the time.
DFS Notes: Around 60 degrees with a light wind blowing across the field makes a pitcher friendly environment slightly friendlier and this game is a headache from a daily fantasy standpoint because both lineups are so difficult to pitch to. Rodon costs more than $9K and combining his contact profile with San Diego’s plate discipline terrifies me, despite their 3.75 run total. Every RHB projected and Arraez exceeds a 100 wRC+ v LHP since last year. I’m out on this entire situation, but might have slight SD stack exposure in mult-entry. I’m actually slightly interested in Darvish for just $8K on DK. He hasn’t just been pitching well, he’s been dominating the toughest offenses. He really doesn’t have any split with all batters between a .280 and .315 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and dropping. This is not a spot I’m paying up for Yankee bats (3.75) in, regardless of whether actually rostering Darvish or not. Saurez back to back (29) and Estrada (30) last night could incentivize the Padres to push Darvish again. De Los Santos also threw 23 pitches on Thursday.
Opp wRC+: 128 (9.2 K-BB%, 16.4 HR/FB)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.52
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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