To start, I want to note that I just went through an entire 15 game slate and all I came up with was the Nationals in the very first game and even then only barely. I wouldn't play it much below that price. Yikes! But I'm not going to push it after a 6-0 day. Stay within the process. Maybe something will look better in the afternoon.
Secondly, these back to back 15 game days are killers. I barely have time to eat.
Lastly, this is an odd Wednesday schedule. Five day games, but no west coast mid-afternoon affairs. That leaves 10 night games, but five of them starting before 7 pm eastern. That left DK and FD with the choice of five or 10 game slates, so we're starting a bit earlier tonight. Thankfully, the four west coast teams are generally pretty good about getting in lineups early.
Oh, and second lastly, Thursday is questionable at this point.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Twins @ Nationals
Simeon Woods-Richardson has a single quality start over his last four outings. He struck out eight Mariners without allowing a run. In three road starts surrounding that, he struck out two in each. A 7.9 SwStr%, 90.3 Z-Contact% and 46.2 Z-O-Swing% are not positive indicators, though because he rarely walks anyone (4.8%), SWR has estimators that only run as high as a 4.48 dERA. PitchingBot loves the changeup (23.5%, 72 grade), which is his worst pitch by run value (-3.1 RV/100). The control explains a 104 Pitching+ grade alongside an 86 Stuff+ one.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 5
B30: 4.09
Very similar to SWR, Jake Irvin doesn’t miss a lot of bats (8.9 SwStr%), but a few more, but rarely walks anyone (4.3%) with similar estimators that run as high as a 4.44 xERA. His best graded pitch is a sinker (17.7%, 66 PB grade), which is also his worst pitch by run value (-3 RV/100). Irvin has a 102 Pitching+ grade with a 98 Stuff+ one.
Opp wRC+: 95 (42 L7 days)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.99
What am I missing here? Reputation? Aside from defense, which Washington makes up by being at home, this seems like a pretty even game. I’ll try the home dog here (+120). The line is dipping as I write (+118). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
Update 12:15 EST: Hot (mid-80s) w/ near double digit wind out to left-center. Hitting weather. Gained 1.75% on WAS. Added SWR K prop. Only 2 in 3 of L4, sub-8 SwStr% 4 of 6, only faced moer than 21 batters once (2nd start), four of first 6 in WAS LU < 20.5 K% v RHP since LY.
Mets @ Guardians
Estimators don’t range much more than half a run from Jose Quintana’s 5.21 ERA. He has an 83 Stuff+ grade and hasn’t struck out more than four in a game yet. People make fun of analytics and then don’t understand regression like this, which every non-FIP estimator last year could have told you was coming.
Opp wRC+: 118 (108 Home)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.89
Triston McKenzie’s walk rate (14.1%) is nearly higher than Quintana’s strikeout rate (15.5%). Add in the 10% Barrels/BBE and a 4.72 xERA is actually the closest estimator to his 3.23 ERA. I don’t know how he’s doing it. Oh, yes I do. A .224 BABIP. Here’s a stunner. McKenzie is up to a 102 Stuff+ grade (91 Pitching+), but PitchingBot doesn’t give any of his offerings a grade above 38.
Opp wRC+: 103 (20.3 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 2.98
Update 12:30 EST: Added a total here (o9 -120) with temps in 80s & 15 mph wind out to right. All SP estimators > 4.5, both teams 100+ wRC+ Hm/Rd/v L/RHP & L30 days, massive CLE pen usage last few days (Clase 3 in a row, everyone pitched Tuesday). Some delay potential too.
Orioles @ Cardinals
John Means velocity by game start…
2023: 92.4 mph, 91.6, 91.4, 91.7
2024: 91.8, 90.9, 90.3
He does have a 13 SwStr% and hasn’t walked anyone through three starts. He’s also faced the Mariners and Reds. Means has a 53.8% hard contact rate.
Opp wRC+: 74 (20 K%, 5.6 HR/FB)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.29
Kyle Gibson revenge game! Wait, isn’t that half the league now? Let’s stick with the velocity them. By month…
April: 91.3 mph
May: 90.8 mph
The graph makes it look worse than that, but his Statcast page isn’t working at the moment. Ten runs over 17 innings with a 6.6 K-BB% in May (three starts).
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.5 K%)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.67
Update 12:35 EST: Nice weather. Upper 70s with near double digit wind out to right. Not going to get much more than that with suspended game leading in. Some late rain potential again.
Angels @ Astros
I’ll give Tyler Anderson this and see how he does with it. In addition to his 12.2 SwStr% (1.45 K/SwStr), he has a 61 grade changeup (35.2%, 2.6 RV/100) via PitchingBot. Not only is that the only team the Astros are below average against, they’re fourth worst in the league (-1.18 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 126 (16.7 K%)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 4.09
Let’s keep with the pitch modeling theme here. Hunter Brown has a 105 Stuff+ grade (100 Pitching+), but with a lower swinging strike rate (9.7%) than walk rate (11.7%), he doesn’t have an estimator below four, though the .398 BABIP should regress.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.77
Update 12:50 EST: Closed roof. Both backup catchers in. Singleton in v LHP makes sense with Anderson's changeup, reverse split. Played HOU o4.5 (-135). Anderson best est. 4.51 FIP, HOU 133/124/150 wRC+ Hm/v LHP/L7 days, LAA 2nd worst defense, LAA pen bottom quarter of league estimators L30 days and heavy usage L2 days.
Tigers @ Royals
Really? This is a day game? We couldn’t flex this to the main DFS slate? Every one of Skubal’s pitches gets at least a 54 grade (PB). He’s thrown six straight quality starts and has a 31.6 K-BB% over his last five.
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 6.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.92
Fourteen of Cole Ragans’ 23 runs came in two starts. His 63 grade fastball (PB) leads a 113 Stuff+ grade. Only Mike Clevinger (what!?) has a lower Z-Contact than Ragans (77.7%) among today’s pitchers.
Opp wRC+: 79 (21.4 K%)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.26
Update 1 EST: No weather effects (low 70s, little wind). Two LHBs for both lineups. Ragans has a reverse split, Skubal dominates everyone. Royals have one of the best defenses in the league and a 140 wRC+ L7 days. Had a small lean towards them, but would need at least even.
Padres @ Reds
Michael King has gone at least six innings with one run or less in four starts (at least seven in three of them), including a pair of double digit strikeout efforts against the Brewers and Dodgers. He’s allowed 31 runs (25 earned) in his other 26.2 innings. His overall 14.8 K-BB% is deceptive too, as he’s been above 19% three times, but in single digits twice and even negative once. I don’t know what to make of him, but his 4.31 ERA is within half a run of all non-FIP estimators (11 home runs on 13 barrels). Pitch modeling just throws a bunch of mediocre numbers at you. Maybe it all evens out to something around average, but it has a volatile way of getting there and I can’t even begin to predict what he’ll do in any given start.
Opp wRC+: 78 (27.2 K%)
DEF: 0.1
B30: 3.46
Maybe it’s not that Nick Martinez can’t pitch a bunch of innings, he just can’t start the game. He threw five one-hit innings at the Dodgers last time out, after an opener. He’s allowed 18 runs (16 earned) over four starts (21 innings), striking out just 15 of 100 batters, but 15 of 64 out of the pen. He’s a very tough evaluation because his numbers and performance are so different when comparing starting to relieving.
Opp wRC+: 121 (19.3 K%)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.66
DFS Notes: On a 10 game slate with three roofs and Toronto a real chance to be open, we have the odd circumstances of winds somewhat neutralizing temperature effects in many places with a chance of rain in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. One fifth of the board reaches five implied runs with another three above four and a half with half the board failing to reach four. I think there are a number of reasonably priced pitchers in play today and one very interesting mid-range arm on DraftKings. FanDuel is not including the pair of late games on their slate, but I’m not going to make any special effort to compensate for that. I’ll just not be playing a FD lineup tonight, but will still be mentioning values.
Let’s start with a bang in Cincinnati, where we already have a lineup for the home team. Temps around 80 with the near double digit wind blowing across the field. I think I’d take a shot with King if playing on FD ($9.2K) and like him on DK too ($8.8K), though he’s not in my initial lineup. He’d probably be my third choice though and the guy I move to if I move off my SP1. This, despite the Reds owning a 4.25 team total with the Padres at exactly five and they are my favorite stack tonight. LHBs have a .325 wOBA and .305 xwOBA against Martinez, but it’s a great park with a lot of affordable bats. All projected batters have at least a 98 wRC+ against RHP since last season and as this is more a plate discipline lineup than a power happy one, I’d prefer to go stacking than one offs, despite the power friendly park. Arraez (139 wRC+, .114 ISO v RHP since LY) would be the guy I made sure to have in most stacks.
Update 5 EST: David Peralta sighting.
Giants @ Pirates
Blake Snell struck out 17 of 28 batters (A & AAA) in a pair of rehab starts, walking just one without a single hit. Perhaps he’s ready to go. He posted a 12.1 K-BB% with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.70 xFIP to a 4.10 xERA over three starts before hitting the IL. You thought it was worse. I did too. He even had a 111 Stuff+ grade and 50% ground ball rate, but .410 BABIP and 39.6 LOB%.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: 5
B30: 3.38
Jared Jones has a 27.2 K-BB%, inhuman 18.4 K-BB% and 77.8 Z-Contact%. His 133 Stuff+ and 114 Pitching+ grades are best in the majors. In this case, he’ll want to throw more sliders (37.5%, 2.8 RV/100, 42.2 Whiff%, 59 PB grade) against the Giants (-0.49 wSL/C is bottom third of the league). You really need the least words for the guys who aren't having any problems.
Opp wRC+: 104 (161, 3.1 K-BB% L7 days)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.10
DFS Notes: Around 80 degrees with a double digit wind that appears to be blowing in from right and Jared Jones is my SP1, as only the third most expensive DK arm. The Giants have just a 3.6 run team total with the Pirates at 3.90. I really don’t know what to do with Snell. There’s enough good pitching that you don’t have to take the risk, but he’s less than $8.5K and I would surely have some exposure in multi entry. McCutchen (119 wRC+, .154 ISO v LHP since last year) may still have some value in case Snell is still off his game. Both closers have been heavily used over the last week, though neither is working off two days in a row.
Rangers @ Phillies
Andrew Heaney has a 17.2 K-BB% in a way he’s never really done it before and that’s with a 5.7 BB%. His 10.5 HR/FB is also the best mark in his career outside 2015. His 9.0% Barrels/BBE is right on his career average and a 44% hard contact rate is the third worst of his career though. Yet, a 3.99 xERA is his second best estimator (3.80 SIERA). I think he’s just locating better and that, along with his walk rate, can be captured with an 81 Stuff+ grade, but 99 Pitching+. It’s kind of strange because his 12.1 SwStr% is exactly his career rate too, so the strikeout rate should be higher. But his 4.43 ERA is also at his career rate, so who knows when he figures he’s not accomplishing anything and do something else. I think he might be onto something though. This start may not further encourage him though.
Opp wRC+: 113 (20.2 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.12
Taijuan Walker left his last start with two runners on in the fourth inning after a comebacker hit him in the foot. He has a 4.91 ERA and 80.8% strand rate. His velocity is down a mile and a half per hour from last season, a 4.79 SIERA is his only estimator below five and he’s allowing 17.6% Barrels/BBE with a 7.4 SwStr%. He has an 86 Stuff+ grade without reachinga a 45 PitchingBot grade on a single pitch. You can’t laugh at the Phillies for much this year, but lol at putting Spencer Turnbull in the bullpen for this. And it’s not like they didn’t know it was coming from his rehab outings.
Opp wRC+: 106 (19.4 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.11
Update 1 EST: Cool, cool. Did all the work on Heaney and now it's Dunning coming off the IL (shoulder) without having pitched anywhere in three weeks. No rehab starts listed on Fangraphs. Maybe we get a Heaney piggyback? Adjusted numbers for PHI v RHP above (though it's really the same as v LHP).
DFS Notes: This is probably the best hitting spot on the board with temps around 80 and a near double digit wind blowing out to CF. The Phillies are essentially tied for the top spot (5.18) with the Rangers not far below (4.82). Without a ton of SS value, Corey Seager (169 wRC+, .288 ISO v RHP since LY) is the one bat I went out of my way to pay up for. I have him as a top three bat overall on this slate. Batters from either side are between a .320 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA against Walker since last year and I’d take the over on that just this year alone. I’m also very high on left-handed Phillies (.340 wOBA, .338 xwOBA v Dunning since LY) with Dunning being backed by a very marginal pen. The biggest issue with Schwarber (148, .219) and Harper (148, .219) would be affordability. Marsh (136, .194) is a strong OF value.
Brewers @ Marlins
Freddy Peralta has allowed 18 runs over his last 26 innings with a more marginal 15.7 K-BB% (22.9% season). He’s also allowing 10.3% Barrels/BBE on the season, which you can imagine is a bigger problem with fewer strikeouts and more walks. The fastball (53 PB grade on the season) gets just a 43 PB grade over this five start span. His 109 Stuff+ grade is right near his season mark (111), but the Pitching+ drops to 97. Not stuff. Location. Command. Also note that his last two starts were his lowest velocities of the season. That may mean he’s searching for better command by taking something off. He may succeed here without finding it.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.08
Jesus Luzardo has struck out 15 of 44 with a single walk, 17.9 SwStr% and just a pair of barrels since his return from the IL. His velocity did drop a mph last time out, but he only threw his fastball one-third of the time, so…yeah, we good. A 4.18 xERA (he allowed 11 pre-IL barrels in five starts) is his only estimator above four at this point.
Opp wRC+: 99 (25 K%, 11 BB%, 17.1 HR/FB)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.97
DFS Notes: Protected, neutral environment, where the Brewers have a 4.53 team total and the Marlins are near the bottom of the board at 3.32. That said, it’s the cheaper pitcher I’m interested in here. It’s not a great spot, but there are some strikeouts here for Luzardo and he’s less than $8K on DK, while being lights out last two starts. It’s worth the risk to me. That said, if hedging, Sanchez (168 wRC+, .430 ISO v LHP since LY) and Contreras (180, .263) are far and away the top MIL bats against LHP and I don’t even hate using a still fairly cheap Sanchez in the same lineup as Luzardo. I perceive too much risk in Peralta right now for too high a cost, but you may not. Certainly have some interest in multi entry and have no interest in attacking him. Puk (47) two of last three, along with Bender (35). Megill and Payamps both more than 30 pitches last two days.
Update 4 EST: The most pitcher friendly Alfonso Marquez behind the plate and I don't know what to do with Luzardo. I can't find another pitcher in his range I like enough and would have to sacrifice even more offense to pay up $1K for King as an SP2. I'll likely just leave him in there.
Red Sox @ Rays
Brayan Bello’s 3.96 ERA is within half a run of all non-FIP estimators, though the contact inclusive xERA (4.30) is well above contact neutral ones like a 3.51 xFIP. He’s off a three homer and barrel game in St Louis and has allowed nine on the year (8.3%), despite a 49.5 GB%. All three of Bello’s pitches have a negative run value (Statcast), despite a positive pitch grade (51-56 PB), including a 3.50 Bot ERA, 103 Stuff+ grade and 104 Pitching+. With a sinker/slider/changeup mix, he still has a major issue with LHBs, who exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Unfortunately for him, the Rays have gotten a few LHBs back from the IL recently to balance the lineup.
Opp wRC+: 96 (incl. Tue stats from here on)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.36
Ryan Pepiot last pitched on May 5th, facing just 11 Mets before a shot to the leg sent him to the IL. He doesn’t appear to have any rehab starts (unless FG stopped listing them) either. His estimators present an odd situation with a 40.9% hard contact rate and 9.1% Barrels/BBE, yet a 2.93 xERA that’s about half a run below all other estimators (3.34 SIERA – 3.67 dERA). His 21.3 K-BB% is backed by a 13 SwStr% and 77.9 Z-Contact% with a 117 Stuff+ grade (106 Pitching+), but workload is a concern, which is a shame, considering all the potential Ks in this lineup.
Opp wRC+: 99 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.08
DFS Notes: Protecting negative run environment with the Red Sox just below four runs (3.9) and the Rays at 3.5. Workload probably kills Pepiot here, though I still love the upside against a lineup with some Ks. I fear Bello’s contact profile without enough upside to make it worth the risk against a lineup that’s getting healthier. There are no standout bats in this game either.
Update 4:10 EST: Cooper and Refsnyder in for O'Neill and Smith.
Mariners @ Yankees
Bryce Miller has home quality starts against Atlanta and Oakland, striking out a total of 19, but a stinker in Houston with just three strikeouts in between and then another in Baltimore with just a single strikeout last time out. While the new splitter has been a welcome addition (18.3%, 1.6 RV/100, 31.2 Whff%, 68 PB grade) that has helped him neutralize LHBs (.277 wOBA this year, .387 last year), he still has a contact problem (12.9% Barrels/BBE, 46% hard contact rate). He’s allowed five of his eight home runs and eight barrels in just four road starts. Miller’s xERA jumped one-third of a run to 4.21 after Baltimore and this park and lineup is not going to be any friendlier to him.
Opp wRC+: 127 (9.5 K-BB%, 15.9 HR/FB)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.61
Nestor Cortes has allowed either three or four runs in six of his 10 starts this year, but a total of two earned over his other four, striking out nine in two of them and six in the other two. Sometimes he pops a big one (Rays, Tigers and White Sox all at home), but overall, an 18.4 K-BB% results mostly in estimators in the upper threes, aside from a mind-boggling 2.69 xERA, despite a 41.7% hard hit rate, though just 6.3% Barrels/BBE. The 43.5 Z-O-Swing% is a warning sign (third worst on the day with Miller right behind him at 43.3%). The four-seam, cutter and sweeper (over 90% of pitches) all get low to mid-50s grades (PB) and the entire thing gets a 97 Stuff+, but 102 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 101 (25.4 K%)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.61
DFS Notes: In the 70s with a double digit wind blowing in from right, but still no thank you to Miller, who showed he doesn’t have all the kinks worked out against LHBs in Baltimore. I do like Nestor Cortes in not an easy, but high upside spot. He’s been good at home against marginal and below average offenses, but I like other pitchers better. Soto (169 wRC+, .265 ISO v RHP since LY) and Judge (171, .321) are never bad options if you can afford them. I could not. Two in a row and three out of four for Munoz probably benches him tonight. You can tell I'm rushing through at this point without mentioning the Mariners at three and a half runs with the Yankees a run higher.
White Sox @ Blue Jays
Yup, I was shocked by that board leading 75 Z-Contact% mentioned above for Mike Clevinger today too, even in just three starts because he’s faced the Rays, Guardians and Yankees. Pitch metrics suggest the fastball might be responsible (39.5%, 2.3 RV/100, 26.2 Whiff%, 56 PB grade). You’d think he’d be throwing harder and elevating it, but it’s a mph slower than last year and mostly located on the armside edge. Clevinger has struck out 10 of 39 Guardians and Yankees since walking four of 16 Rays without a strikeout in his first start. He had a 20.5 SwStr% against Cleveland, but just 9.5% against the Yankees (1.5% against the Rays). His three starts have been so different that I have no idea what to expect here.
Opp wRC+: 94 (20.4 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.27
You like to see pitchers age and decline gracefully and I believe that’s what Chris Bassitt has been doing ever since leaving Oakland, little by little each year. But there comes a point, and we may be nearing it, where a good pitcher because average or even below. Bassitt has just a 10.3 K-BB% and is allowing 9.2% Barrels/BBE. His problems against LHBs have continued to escalate (.367 wOBA, .353 xwOBA since last year, .403 wOBA this year). The good news here is that the White Sox don’t have the personnel to exploit that issue. Bassitt’s 3.91 dERA seems a farce. His next best estimator is a 4.23 xFIP. Pitch modeling is very marginal, which is actually a bit better than his actual results, which not even the best defense in the league has been able to help.
Opp wRC+: 78 (70 Road)
DEF: 14
B30: 4.01
Update 2:25 EST: Just noticed Nastrini is in for Clevinger and apologies, but I just don't have the time to re-route everything and figure him out. He's a decent arm (45+ FV), who was pummeled in Philadelphia in his first callup, but wasn't too bad in Kansas City.
DFS Notes: The Blue Jays probably open the roof as much or more than anyone in the league. That would increase the run environment by about six percent on average. The Blue Jays are the top team on the board at 5.2, despite the pitching change with the White Sox near the bottom (3.3). This is a good spot for Bassitt. He’s fine, but I still have my concerns and won’t be using him. My thoughts are that Schneider (136 wRC+, .194 ISO v RHP since LY) and Jansen (136, .260) are too cheap at the top of the order of the top offense (if they remain there) and have both in my single entry lineup. Considering the lack of punch through the rest of the Toronto order here, nothing else is a must, but certainly lots of stack exposure in multi.
And another quick update that Jansen is OUT. Not my day.
Update 4:30 EST: I don't know what that White Sox lineup is without Jimenez or Vaughn, but it has five LHBs, so it might still give Bassitt trouble. No word on the roof status yet.
Braves @ Cubs
Both of these pitchers have been inconsistent so far, but at least Justin Steele has the injury excuse. Every time you think Max Fried is ready to take off, I mean he has two hitless outings of six and seven innings, he comes back a little bit, like his last start against the Padres that only lasted 4.1 innings. The contact profile is still elite. The elite of the elite (64.3 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE, 29.2 Hard%), generating a 3.61 xERA. The 9.2 K-BB%, well, still generates estimators from a 3.29 dERA to a 3.95 FIP, including a 3.81 SIERA that’s a perfect match for his ERA because of all those ground balls. Ground balls can’t leave the park. Pitch modeling only gives him a 97 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+, along with a 3.91 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 109 (20.2 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.94
Justin Steele’s velocity has been up, but the Pirates have pounded him for five home runs over his last 9.2 innings. He’s struck out 10 of the 45 he’s faced, but with just an 8.0 SwStr%. However, he’s also only allowed three barrels against Pittsburgh, but also a 50% hard contact rate. A lot of odd small sample stuff going on here, but he does have a 16.0 K-BB% through four and maybe the velo increase suggests he’s close to finding his rhythm. The four-seam (62%, -1.2 RV/100, 68 PB grade) and slider (29.6%, -2.1 RV/100, 72 PB grade) still appear to be elite, despite poor results and he does seem to be locating well (109 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 116 (21.9 K%)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.54
DFS Notes: The weather is more neutral tonight with temperatures around 70, but a double digit wind out to right still slightly favors hitters. Too much risk with not enough upside for either pitcher where there are better choices out there. That’s my feeling anyway. The Braves are at four and a half runs (and expensive) with the Cubs half a run less. I would have some exposure to upper half Braves stacks in multi entry, though none made my single entry lineup.
Update 4:50 EST: Both of these pitchers have reverse splits, more so Fried, but nobody ever jams LHBs against them. Three LHBs total, one for Chicago.
Rockies @ Athletics
Austin Gomber is another Colorado pitcher, who’s become a magician, turning an 8.7 K-BB% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE into a 3.02 ERA that’s more than a run and a quarter below all estimators (.238 BABIP, 86.1 LOB%). He’s done this with a 77 Stuff+ grade led by a 45 grade fastball (PB) that he’s throwing 39.2% of the time. He may be able to keep that magic going in a great matchup tonight though.
Opp wRC+: 86 (18.6 K-BB%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.78
Houston pummeled Joey Estes for eight runs with as many walks (four) as strikeouts. Oddly, all three barrels came in his first start (in Seattle), where he allowed a single run. Pitch modeling doesn’t hate him so far (4.30 Bot ERA, 97 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+), but his slider (21.3%) is Estes’s only above average graded pitch (59 PB). That’s a bit ironic, considering Fangraphs (40 FV grade) has that as his second worst pitch of the four potentially.
Opp wRC+: 82 (19.1 K-BB%)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.53
Update 2:30 EST: And Oakland is now listing some guy named Spence instead of Estes. I give up.
DFS Notes: Near 60 degrees, but near double digit wind out to center. Interesting spot in that it’s a pitcher friendly park without much pitcher appeal. However, there’s certainly enough upside in these lineups to consider a potential SP2 punt here, keeping in mind I know nothing about this Spence character outside him being a bulk reliever with some success against RHBs and about average against LHBs so far. I only really have interest in one bat here and regular readers know who it is. My man…Abrahan Toro (169 wRC+, .167 ISO v LHP since LY, 154 wRC+ L30 days)! Kinley threw 31 pitches for the Rox last night.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
I don’t know when I’m going to learn my lesson with Ryne Nelson, but pitch modeling still loves him (3.32 Bot ERA, 105 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+), especially the fastball (50.8%, 57 PB grade) and the Dodgers have been just marginal against good fastballs (0.05 wFA/C), as we saw last night. Back to actual results, with just a 16.3 K% Nelson’s best estimators are a 4.17 xFIP and FIP with the xERA up to 5.14, still well below his 7.06 ERA. I guess we need to expect the .415 BABIP to heavily regress.
Opp wRC: 121 (128 Home)
DEF: 15
B30: 4.61
The Reds did some damage to Tyler Glasnow (four runs, 42.9% hard contact rate), ending a streak of four quality starts with two runs or less (seven overall). He still struck out eight with a single walk. A 27.1 K-BB% issues estimators all more than one-third of a run BELOW his 2.90 ERA, led by a 64 grade fastball (53.7%, 1.9 RV/100) and 117 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.33
DFS Notes: Temps around 60 with a near double digit wind out to center. My numbers tell me that Nelson might be an interesting punt SP2 today for $5K, but I don’t have the intestinal fortitude to attempt it. I have Glasnow right with Jones as the top two arms tonight, though feel King could match the upside if he’s on. Therefore, I’m not paying all the way up in a marginal upside spot. The Diamondbacks are the low team on the board (2.84), but generally don’t strike out a ton. You need Glasnow exposure in multi entry though. I did try to jam Ohtani (206 wRC+, .373 ISO v RHP since LY) into my lineup, but it just wasn’t working. The Dodgers have a 5.16 implied run line and Nelson certainly has blowup potential. Batters from either side are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year with LHBs above .360.
Update 6;30 EST: Hughes opening for Nelson. No ARI lineup yet. An overall DFS update, couldn't make a quality lineup moving from Luzardo to King. Ended up playing Sanchez against my own pitcher, Varsho in the OF (batting 2nd) and then even Sheets (against Bassitt) to fill out the lineup with just $3.1K left.
Update 6:40 EST: Grichuk in for McCarthy.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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