Thursday gives us just a 10 game board with only one evening affair. The good news is there are complete write ups for all 10. The bad news is no DFS notes because there's no evening slate. There may be random updates in the early afternoon, time permitting.
Legend at the bottom of the page. All stats through Tuesday.
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Brewers @ Pirates
Freddy Peralta has three quality starts in four tries, none with more than a single run or less than seven strikeouts. His 32.3 K-BB% leads all qualified pitchers. He has allowed six barrels (11.8%), which is why his xERA (3.14) creeps above three along with his DRA (3.38). A couple of interesting nuggets from his individual pitch metrics. Only his four-seamer (54.3%, 61) grades above average via PitchingBot, but he still has a 115 Stuff+ mark. Tough to figure how a slider with a 48.9 Whiff% gets a 44 rating, but it is a pitch the Pirates have had some success with (0.45 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 86 (81 Home, 61 L7days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.69
Velocity down a mph from last year, Mitch Keller has nearly cut his K-BB% in half (18.8% to 10.6% this year). That’s basically been the gist of it. His sinker and four-seamer make up half his pitches, both with PB grades just below average (47, 49), though there is some optimism in a 3.59 Bot ERA and 101 Stuff+. The Brewers have smashed sinkers though (0.78 wSI/C) to the second best mark in the league. Keller’s 4.78 xERA matches his actual 4.80 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.60
This is a starting pitching mismatch and it’s a bit of an offensive mismatch as well. The Brewers have begun to cool down, but the Pirates have gone cold after a hot opening week or so. The only area the Brewers don’t have a massive edge is the bullpen. (MIL -130 F5) (Follow RockyJade on Action Network to get it quicker.)
Update 11:30 EST: Chourio & Hayes out. Cool weather, mid-50s, wind not an issue. Gained 1.81% on MIL F5 overhight.
Red Sox @ Guardians
We don’t know who is starting for the Red Sox yet with Brayan Bello hitting the IL, but I’m seeing George Alexander floated out there. It’s been a couple of years since the Summer of George in Milwaukee, something many Brewers fans probably try to forget (5.6 K-BB%). Now 31, Alexander has posted a 14.7 K-BB% in four AAA starts (18.2 IP). Steamer is the only major system even projecting him this season and that’s for an ERA/FIP around five.
Opp wRC+: 105 (19.5 K%)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.62
Triston McKenzie was able to manufacture six strikeouts with an 11.9 SwStr% against Oakland last time out. How? Well, fewer fastballs. Still too many (46.7%) with the velocity down 1.5 mph, but more sliders (63.6 Whiff% against the A’s). That said, his slider has the same 36 PitchingBot grade his fastball does with the curveball not much better (41) and a 5.77 xERA is his only estimator below six. I feel like an 94 Stuff+ grade is a bit generous at this point. The Red Sox have the fifth best mark in the league against four-seamers (0.61 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 95 (25 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 2.92
Update 11:45 EST: A lot to get to here. Temps 50 degrees with a 10 mph wind in from CF. Even colder conditions yesterday brought eight runs, all from Boston. McKenzie is capable of the same, but oof this Boston lineup. Six below a 75 wRC+ and .110 ISO against RHP since last year. The Red Sox have landed on Chase Anderson, who's thrown as many as 68 pitches in a relief outing this year, but has projections somewhere around five and a half or still half a run better than McKenzie's actual numbers. The Guardians have moved around some pieces as well. Because it's a mid-week day game or because Anderson has traditionally had a reverse split (only via xwOBA since last year though).
Phillies @ Reds
Zack Wheeler was dominating with reduced velocity over first few starts, so what happens when it bumped back up (95.5 mph last two starts)? Wheeler nearly no-hit the White Sox. Both his four-seam (65 PB grade) and sinker (61) are dominating. In fact, a curveball (43) that he only throws about 10 times per game is Wheeler’s only pitch below a 55 grade. Now up to a 24.6 K-BB%, 15 SwStr%, 51.9 GB%, 20.8 IFFB%, 29.1 Z-O-Swing% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE, he’s simply been dominant with a party pooping 3.24 DRA his only estimator above 2.65 (SIERA).
Opp wRC+: 89 (27.2 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.75
His last two outings (3 IP & 4 IP) coming out of the bullpen, Nick Martinez gets his third start of the year. With just two walks and three barrels, an 18.9 K% has been less concerning, especially with an 11.1 SwStr%. The only stand outs in his pitch modeling metrics is a 59 grade cutter, a pitch the Phillies have struggled with (-134 wFC/C) and 105 Stuff+. All estimators are below his 4.76 ERA, including a 2.98 FIP and 3.60 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 88 (132 L7days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.16
Update 12 EST: The big thing here is Bryce Harper being back. Should help boost that 89 wRC+ against RHP. Also, Espinal in for Fraley takes a LHB out of the lineup against Wheeler, who has struggled against them (about an 80 point platoon split). Or maybe better to say he's been human against LHBs, while dominating RHBs. Upper 50s with a light breeze in from LF. I flirted with an Under here, but just can't go below 7.5 in this park.
White Sox @ Twins
I can’t find anything positive to say about Mike Soroka’s performance. He has a negative K-BB, his best estimator is a 5.57 xFIP without a single pitch reaching a 50 grade, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 89 (27 K%)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.78
Still working off eight runs in 1.1 innings from his first start, Bailey Ober has allowed two runs over 17 innings with a 21.3 K-BB% since and may have had the highest single game fastball average velocity of his career last time out (92.8 mph). Despite an 88 Stuff+, Ober doesn’t have a single PitchingBot grade below 50 with a 3.43 Bot ERA and 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 67 (76 Road, 58 L7days)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.17
Update 12:20 EST: Simeon Woods Richardson in for Ober. How is he still only 23? It seems like so long ago he was traded to the Blue Jays for Marcus Stroman (and then the Twins for Jose Berrios). He's thrown just 15.2 major league innings, including a six inning affair against the Tigers two weeks ago. He struck out five and allowed just two hits. Projection systems have him a bit above four and a half, still a run and a half better than Soroka. Weather isn't as much of a factor as yesterday, when they still scored nine runs. Winds (13 mph in from right) a bigger deal than temperature (mid-60s). Martin in for Buxton, who has twice Martin's K% against RHP since last year. The White Sox are just trying to find any kind of lineup combination that works. Just three LHBs.
Blue Jays @ Royals
The 0.85 ERA doesn’t have to be anywhere near sustainable for Jose Berrios to be a quality pitcher. However, with just a 14.7 K-BB% and 47.1% hard hit rate he may not be much more than that. Half his contact (50.6%) has been on the ground and he’s induced popups on 23.1% of fly balls. A 28.1 Z-O-Swing% is second on the board, so he’s getting a lot of chases and favorable launch angles, but still too much hard contact. With just two of his six barrels leaving the yard, a 3.32 FIP is his best estimator by 0.3 runs. On a pitch level basis, Berrios has just a 97 Stuff+, but all his offerings grade between 53 and 59 via Pitching Bot. With a .250 BABIP 44 points below his career level and near perfect 99.4% strand rate, expect massive regression, but he should still be a fine pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 105 (20 K%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.56
Cole Ragans was smashed by the Orioles last time out (7 ER, 1.2 IP), more than doubling his run total for the year. Turning to Pitcher’s List to see what’s up (because I didn’t watch), it seems to be partly “it happens” and partly “there may be something wrong with the slider”. Ragans only throws the pitch 10% of the time, but the whiff rate has been cut in half since last year from 40% to 20%. He still had a 14.5 SwStr% in this start. It’ll take a bit to work off this start, but he still has a 23.2 K-BB% with just 5.6% Barrels/BBE and PitchingBot still grades the slider his second best pitch (52 – fastball 69). Maybe it’s more of a concern his other offerings are below 50, yet he still has a 3.43 Bot ERA and 112 Stuff+ mark.
Opp wRC+: 122 (6.1 K-BB%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.50
Update 12:40: Weather nasty enough that we could get a PPD. Upper 50s, wind in from right or across the field 17 mph. Royals have added Frazier and Fermin to the lineup for Renfroe and Velazquez. Trade off some power for more contact and another LHB against Berrios's modest platoon split.
Astros @ Cubs
Justin Verlander was down another mph (93.4) in his first start of the reason, but that’s not a cause for concern yet. Unless you still expect a Cy Young performance because most projection systsems peg him as an average pitcher this year and his initial performance did little to dissuade that. He didn’t walk any Nats, but struck out just four with a 5.1 SwStr%. He allowed three barrels, but just five hard hit balls. The slider (43 PB grade) was his only below average offering, but a 124 Stuff+ for the start may have been looking at one from a previous season. Temper the expectations and you should be fine.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.27
The regression monster is coming for Javier Assad and it may be coming a bit harder than even his estimators expect. The .231 BABIP, 89.1 LOB% and 8.7 HR/FB are all elements that skew ERA. However, with a 25 K% and 26.4% hard hit rate, Assad still has just a 3.23 xERA. Then we see that he has just a 7.4 SwStr% and sub-20 CStr% with a 9.5 BB% and consider maybe that’s a bit generous. He also doesn’t have a single pitch reaching a 50 grade by PitchingBot (5.03 Bot ERA) and 91 Stuff+. The deeper you go, the worse it gets, but potentially below average pitcher isn’t the end of his career.
Opp wRC+: 109 (17.5 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.12
Update 12:50 EST: Weather only slight upgrade from Wednesday (50 degrees, 9 mph wind in from RF). Still seems very pitcher friendly. Morel joins Bellinger (IL) on the bench. Singleton in for second game in a row. Could this be the end of Abreu? Gives Astros third LHB. No real split for Assad, but LHBs 40 points better xwOBA since last year.
Mariners @ Rangers
Though his velocity last time out was at least a three year low, Luis Castillo still struck out nine (for the second game in a row) and shutout the Rockies through seven innings at Coors. That’s still a bit of an accomplishment. The early season doldrums appear to have passed and we can probably put the velo drop on the cold Colorado weather, as his other outings were consistent with last April velocities. Castillo is already sitting on a 25.2 K-BB% with few ground balls, but a 25% infield fly rate (on fly balls) with just five barrels allowed (6.1%). A 3.56 DRA is his only estimator above three. The .392 BABIP will regress. Despite a 92 Stuff+, Castillo owns a 107 Pitching+, while PB grades all of his offerings average or better with a 3.43 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 112 (18.1 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.61
Just a 7.6 K-BB% with a 40.4% hard hit rate for Andrew Heaney and a 4.62 xERA is his best estimator. He’s probably the first guy out when the IL starts unloading. PitchingBot (3.98 ERA) sees mostly average offerings while Stuff+ (85) may have the clearer picture. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and he’s actually about more than 20 points worse against LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 96 (109 Road, 146 L7days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.23
Update 1 EST: Roof closed. No Crawford again. Puts all nine on the Seattle side from the right-hand side, despite what I wrote above about Heaney being worse against LHBs. Couple of bottom of the lineup changes for Texas, slightly beneficial for Castillo. Shifts the lineup to five RHBs. Castillo about a 50 points platoon split. Also slightly higher strikeout rates in the 8th and 9th spot.
Padres @ Rockies
Three of the four runs Randy Vasquez allowed in his first start against the Blue Jays were unearned. That doesn’t mean he performed well with a 4.1 SwStr% and 52.9% hard hit rate. In 37.2 innings for the Yankees last year, Vasquez produced the same 9 K-BB% he did in his start against Toronto, The curveball projects to be a major weapon (70 Fangraphs FV grade, 68 PB grade first start), but he may be a one trick pony with a 40+ Future Value grade and no major projection system putting him below a five ERA and FIP. Or, you know, kind of like Dakota Hudson’s actual numbers.
Opp wRC+: 81 (27.2 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.84
With just a 1.0 K-BB%, a 4.80 FIP is Hudson’s best estimator, he doesn’t have a single pitch that grades at least average (5.18 Bot ERA, 85 Stuff+) and if that’s not enough, his velocity has dropped with each start. He was chucking his sinker and four-seamer at 90 mph last time out.
Opp wRC+: 115 (19.8 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.22
Update 1:15 EST: Nearly 80 degrees in Colorado. Vasquez has shown a 100 point split difference in his short career, but will face just two LHBs with Blackmon and Jones out. No significant changes to the San Diego lineup.
Dodgers @ Nationals
In his last outing, the Mets swung at eight of Yoshi Yama’s (yes, that’s how I’m writing it from now on) heaters. They missed one. The other seven left with an exit velocity between 94.3 to 96.3 mph each. His fastball is getting smashed (.443 wOBA, .486 xwOBA) because he’s throwing them right down the middle. He believes it sets up his other pitches better, but he needs to elevate or at least go lower because everything else is awesome. He has a 104 Stuff+ and 2.91 Bot ERA that matches most of his contact neutral estimators (26.9 K-BB%). The splitter and curveball both get whiffs on more than 37% of swings. All four of his offerings (including the fastball) grade 57 or better via the Bot. The contact profile (15.8% Barrels/BBE, 54.4 Hard%) results in a 4.14 xERA that’s his only indicator anywhere near his 4.50 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.25
Mackenzie Gore is having trouble getting through six innings. In no start has he thrown fewer than 90 pitches and in no start has he completed six innings, despite just six walks. Is there a foul ball thing going on? It’s peculiar. The rate stats are great (31.8 K%). His 3.60 ERA matches a 3.50 xERA, but only a 3.79 DRA is higher. His velocity remains up 1.7 mph since last season and PitchingBot grades his fastball at 68! Gore has a 2.61 Bot ERA and 114 Stuff+. Also, the one pitch that’s befuddled the Dodgers this season has been the four-seamer (-0.9 wFA/C is fifth worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -4
B30: 3.74
Going against the Dodgers hasn’t gone as well in this series as it did in Los Angeles, but I’m going back to the well again. There’s just not a large enough gap anywhere here and the Nationals have had the better bullpen. I’m not even holding Yamamoto’s fastball results against him, but am giving Gore some credit for having a great pitch the Dodgers have struggled to hit (WSH +176).
Update 1:30 EST: Gained a whopping 3.5% on Washington overnight. 60 degrees, light wind in from RF. Barnes in for Smith, less offense, slightly better defense maybe? Keibert Ruiz back for the Nats. His strikeout rate half that of Adams. However, six LHBs for WSH against a pitcher who has had more trouble with RHBs in a small sample.
Athletics @ Yankees
Alex Wood must love his shed because he keeps being taken to it. He hasn’t had a single game performance with more than twice as many innings as runs allowed and is riding an 8.3 K-BB% with 9.7% Barrel/BBE (48.6 Hard%). A 4.76 SIERA is Wood’s only estimator below five and every one of his pitches grades below average (5.03 Bot ERA, 74 Stuff+). Wood doesn’t have much of a platoon split because batters from either side exceed a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 99 (but 9.6 K-BB%)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.54
Nestor Cortes struck out a season high nine of 26 Rays last time out with his highest velocity fastball for any game from at least the last three seasons. Cortes has allowed just two barrels with a 19.5 K-BB%, while his 3.41 ERA coincides well with the average of his estimators. Pitch modeling metrics are a bit conflicting with a 3.74 Bot ERA, but 92 Stuff+ (102 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 95 (26 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.17
Update 4:40 EST: 50 degrees with wind blowing in around 8 mph from somewhere around the right field pole.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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