We don't get a lot of 13+ game slates anymore with so many eastern teams having those earlier week day starts. To be honest, larger slates are less enjoyable. There's just too much information to consume. Thankfully, all of Friday's starters are listed on MLB.com before 6 PM EST and all except one have made at least three starts this year.
All stats through Wednesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, donations are welcome (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal), so that I can continue doing this and make the site more pleasant to look at.
Royals @ Tigers
Despite a 2.03 ERA, Seth Lugo has registered just an 11.1 SwStr% and hasn’t punched out more than four in any start or gone past an 8.1 SwStr% in any of his last four. With a contact profile that’s perfectly average, it’s the fact that just two of nine barrels have left the park (only one road start) and an 88.1 LOB% that'’ kept him afloat. Turning to individual pitch metrics for an answer shows us that Statcast has him throwing EIGHT DIFFERENT PITCHES and none more than 23.5% of the time. Maybe that’s the problem. It’s a pitch com thing because a catcher only has five fingers on his right hand. The pitches grade from 36 to 53 via PitchingBot with both it and Stuff+ (97) believing he’s been perfectly average. The whiff rate is down on five of the seven pitches he threw last year, except the slider and slurve. There’s also a sweeper that’s gotten zero whiffs on 15 pitches. There was a time he had a great curveball and threw it a ton. It’s still his second best graded pitch (51).
Opp wRC+: 89 (6.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.36
Reese Olson is down to a 10.4 K-BB% (from 16.6% last year), despite a nearly two point increase in his swinging strike rate (13.7% from 11.9%) and little change to his CStr%. That’s encouraging for his 3.80 ERA and all the non-FIP estimators above it. He’s got a 40+ Whiff% on three pitches, but single digit on the other two, which is kind of important because it’s the four-seam and sinker he’s throwing a combined 44% of the time. He’s also dropped some velocity in each of his starts to the point where he was a full mile per hour down from his first start of the season last time out.
Opp wRC+: 104 (19.4 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.87
Update 11:48 EST: Temps around 60 w/ 13 mph wind in from LC. With that, the KC defense and DET offense, I'm playing a weather under (7.5 -110) here.
Athletics @ Orioles
All estimators are below Ross Stripling’s 5.34 ERA and all than 5.24 DRA more than a run so, but while he’s only allowed two barrels with a 29.5% hard hit rate, he’s also struck out 17.6% with a 7.8 SwStr%. Expect a .376 BABIP and 64 LOB% to regress in his favor, though an 86 Stuff+ mark suggest he’s something less than the league average pitcher some of his estimators suggest.
Opp wRC+: 124 (133 Home, 140 L7days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.63
Corbin Burnes has just an 18.9 K% and 9.6 SwStr% in four starts since his fantastic Baltimore debut against a somewhat average string of offenses that includes the Brewers, Red Sox and Royals twice. His velocity remains up an half mph from last season, but the whiff rate on his cutter has dropped four points to 17.1% and 17.7 points to 31.1% on a curveball he’s increased his usage from 17% to 25% this year. Pitch models still love both pitches (61 & 55 PB grade respectively, 118 Stuff+), so perhaps it’s a blip. A 2.76 ERA matches his xERA, but beware it’s been a bit downhill since that first start. This is a get right spot for him to show off.
Opp wRC+: 81 (28.4%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.23
DFS Notes: A few notes about the slate in general. With 13 games, keep in mind that I’m sure to miss a few angles. Four domes leaves nine spots where weather can affect outcomes and in almost every spot it may and that effect appears to be negative…except for maybe one spot. With no Coors on the slate, Atlanta is the only offenses reaching five implied runs with half the teams on the slate below four and only five more above four and a half. It’s not a slate full of dominant arms, but rather potential run preventers under the right conditions. We can find flaws with nearly every pitcher on the slate (and believe me, I mostly have), but we have to roster at least one and possible two of them. I don’t have a set single entry lineup yet, but perhaps will by the time we’re done here.
One of the least impacted parks by weather is right in Baltimore with temperatures around 60 and wind across the field at just under 10 mph. I’m preferring to go underweight on Burnes for reasons given above. Due to the weather in another park, I believe he may be the most popular pitcher on the board for good reason. The A’s offer the upside he may have lost over his last four starts. In fact, the A’s have the lowest run total on the board (2.72). The O’s are a top offense tonight (4.68) and merit your attention. Ryan O’Hearn (130 wRC+, .198 ISO v RHP since last year) is a particular favorite of mine for just $4K or $2.7K. Gunnar Henderson (148, .288 ISO) is a top SS bat. Only Mountcastle and Holliday fall below a 109 wRC+ against RHP since last season among those projected and just Holliday is below a 110 wRC+ overall this year. Mason Miller threw last night and probably won't be available again.
Update 3:45 EST: Way to go A's leaning into Burnes's reverse split and only playing three LHBs. The changes give the A's a slightly lower K-rate than expected too. I'm about borderline on the under on Burnes's K prop (7.5 +112).
Dodgers @ Blue Jays
Although he’s allowed just a single barrel and no home runs, a 7.2 K-BB% is holding Gavin Stone back. A 14.6 SwStr% does suggest he has the talent evaluators believe he does, but it’s been a task getting through five innings when he reaches ball four before strike three too often. All estimators are more than a run below his 6.00 ERA, but that contact neutral ones not by much. With just a 90 Stuff+ mark and no pitch he’s thrown more than 15 times grading better than average, one wonders where all those swings and misses are coming from (it’s the changeup 42.6 Whiff%, but just 43 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.2 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.21
A 9.9 K-BB% would be Chris Bassitt’s lowest mark since before he became a regular starter in Oakland and on top of that, 10% of his batted balls have been barrels. As such, a 4.29 xFIP has been his closest estimator to a 3.90 ERA that’s been kept below four with 20% of his runs being unearned so far. He’s another one that throws eight different pitches, but with his sinker dominant in usage (41.8%) and in PitchingBot grade (58). A slider he’s thrown 35 times is the only other pitch that grades above 42, yet he carries a 4.03 Bot ERA and perfectly average 100 Stuff+. Bassitt now has a substantial platoon split with LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA since last year, but RHBs below .285.
Opp wRC+: 130 (118 Road, 143 L7days)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.59
DFS Notes: The Dodgers are a top offense (4.66) and Blue Jays a middling one (4.34) in this protecting environment. With batters from either side above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Stone since last year, I like Blue Jays bats without loving them. Varsho, Vlad Jr and Jansen are projected batters above a .190 ISO against RHP since last year. I love Dodger LHBs for reasons given and project Ohtani (205 wRC+, .383 ISO v RHP since LY) the top bat on the board, but I’m having trouble finding a way to afford him. Pages (143, .264) is a sneaky strong value. As suggested, I have no pitching interest in this game. Phillips and Hudson have both pitched two of the last three days with pitch counts around 50.
Update 3:30 EST: Bassitt's 6.9 SwStr%, inability to get LHBs out and the Dodger lineup having most of their Ks at the bottom of the order (3 of first 4 < 20% v RHP since LY) leads me to a Bassitt K prop under (5.5 +112).
Cubs @ Red Sox
Shota Imanaga has struck out just 12 of 61 batters, since fanning nine of 21 Rockies in his debut, but has remained above a 13.5 SwStr% in two of those three starts. He’s walked only two batters, good for a 23.2 K-BB%, though only 32.2% of his contact on the ground with 50.8% of it above a 95 mph exit velocity could be a problem once it warms at Wrigley. For now, a 3.35 xERA is only his second worst estimator (4.27 DRA). You might think part of the potential issue is that he throws his fastball 63.4% of the time, but it carries a 68 PB grade (2.42 Bot ERA), though a 97 Stuff+ is less impressed with the arsnel. The Red Sox hate four-seam fastballs so much that not only have they stopped throwing them, but the offense is fourth best in the league against them (0.81 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 103 (30.3 K%, 11.5 BB%)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.13
The other pitcher with a sub-one ERA in this game is Kutter Crawford, who’s walked 10% of the batters he’s faced, but also struck out 27.3% with just a 29.4% hard hit rate. It’s funny that these pitchers have very similar estimators, right down to the DRA above four and low twos FIPs with a combined one of their nine barrels leaving the yard. Crawford, though, comes with an arsenal of three different pitches thrown between 25% and 30% of the time, but the fastballs (53) is the only one that grades above average with a 4.44 Bot ERA overall, but 104 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 99 (10.4 BB% could be an issue)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.53
DFS Notes: Wind not much of a factor, but 50 degrees decreases the run environment, so much so that both teams sit at 3.75 implied runs. Part of that is quality pitching, though not as good as actual results. The weather does make arms playable here with Ks in both lineups that have key bats nursing injuries. I feel Kutter to be the less volatile arm and Fenway still a dangerous spot for Imanaga’s lack of ground balls. Busch and Morel are the only projected Cubs above a .180 ISO against RHP since last year. Devers and O’Neill the only projected home bats exceeding both a 100 wRC+ and even .100 ISO against LHP since last season. Hector Neris 43 pitches last two days, many Boston arms pitched last night, but not to large pitch counts and with Wednesday off.
Update 5 EST: No significant changes here, but with the temperature and both pitchers with estimators below 3.50, I did slightly side with the under (7.5 -104).
Cardinals @ Mets
Miles Mikolas has long been a contact manager over a bat misser, but is taking the latter to a new level this year with a 17.2 K%, 5.9 SwStr% and 90.9 Z-Contact% and fallen off the path on the former. His 47.7% hard hit rate is five points above last season, which was already a career high by six points. Still retaining a six percent walk rate, contact neutral estimators are just above four (4.06), but his 5.82 xERA is closest to a 6.29 ERA. Some conflict from pitch models with PitchingBot grading his fastball below average (46), but every other pitch above 53, while and 89 Stuff+ mark matches the actual results.
Opp wRC+: 103 (10.5 K-BB%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.21
Jose Butto struggled against the Dodgers, walking five last time out, but still has produced a 17.5 K-BB% over his last 46.1 innings with just three barrels since being recalled in August of last year. I think I’m watching good stuff, but both pitch models disagree. All of Butto’s pitches grade below 45, including a 37 sinker that he throws 22.5%, which is the only pitch the Cardinals have hammered (0.73 wSI/C is fourth best in baseball). A 5.87 Bot ERA, 87 Stuff+ and 88 Pitching+ suggest he doesn’t below in the majors. Butto does now have a 13.6 BB% and 50% hard hit rate, despite the two barrels, but when not facing the Dodgers this season, he has a 25 K-BB% and more moderate 41.7 Hard% in two starts this season. Wait and see approach.
Opp wRC+: 86 (79 Road, 75 L7days)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.26
DFS Notes: Winds blowing out to left around 10 mph offset a temperature around 50 somewhat with attacking Mikolas becoming only slightly less attractive here. Neither team reaches four implied runs, but the Mets come close (3.93) and I think they may be undersold here. Nimmo (135 wRC+, .217 ISO v RHP since LY) is my favorite NYM bat with batters from either side between a .329 to .359 wOBA and xwOBA against Mikolas since last year. J.D. Martinez potentially making his debut tonight may take a value bat in D.J. Stewart (146, .300) off the board. Considering St Louis struggles, I’d prefer to side with Butto here in an SP 2 spot ($7.1K), but would more likely stay away in single entry. Contreras, Arenado and Nootbaar are the only three projected Cardinals exceeding a 100 wRC+ this year and 100 wRC+ v RHP since last year. Top three Mets pen arms threw at least 20 pitches Wednesday, but with yesterday off.
Update 4 EST: Martinez is in the lineup, yet six of first seven in NYM order 22.2 K% or less v RHP since last year. Mikolas 5.9 SwStr%. Considering that and top five pen estimators for both clubs in a pitcher friendly park, I sided with the under both on the game (7.5u -104) and Mikolas's K prop (3.5 +120).
Nationals @ Marlins
When you see Trevor Williams with a 2.91 ERA and without a single estimator reaching four, you immediately try to find reasons this won’t continue. A perfectly average contact profile with a 14.8 K-BB% doesn’t help your case, but an 8.0 SwStr% might. It’s the same as it was last year, while a 19 CStr% is career high by more than two points and less likely to sustain. PitchingBot liked his fastball last year and this year gives it a 57 grade and 3.83 Bot ERA overall. However, a 79 Stuff+ mark is screaming that this is the same Trevor Williams. This may not be the start where he proves otherwise.
Opp wRC+: 83 (70 Home, 60 L7days)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.84
Jesus Luzardo is coming off his first quality start of the season against the Cubs, striking out six with three walks and perhaps that gets him back on track. However, the biggest real issue has been an 11.6 BB% he didn’t help, while he allowed two more barrels to make it 11 (15.3%) on the year. The fastball appears to be the main culprit, as he’s thrown it 34.6% of the time down five points of whiff to 14.1% with a .360 wOBA (up 59 points from last year, though he beat his xwOBA on the pitch by 49 points last year). The shape of the heater hasn’t changed and it’s only down 0.7 mph. Perhaps he’s getting what xwOBA implies he escaped last year, but with the walk rate jumping more than four points, it’s tough to be pitching from behind and with runners on base all the time. The fastball still gets a 55 grade, best of all his pitches and the overall arsenal carries a 3.95 Bot ERA and 101 Stuff+, so perhaps he just needs better command and control to recoup what he’s lost.
Opp wRC+: 64
DEF: -12
B30: 4.12
With Luzardo pitching as he has been (and Williams the way he’s been), along with the Marlins’ offensive struggles, awful defense and worse bullpen than the Nats, I’m struggling to understand why they’re suck large favorites. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network, not necessarily for the plays, but to get the info dumps sooner.)
Update 11:50 EST: Anthony Maldonado in for Luzardo, resulting in a massive line drop in Washington’s favor (I’ll calculate the overnight value later), but Maldonado projects as a 40 Future Value arm (Fangraphs) with a nasty slider (70 grade) and not much else. They don’t even grade a third pitch (FB 45). Although he’s had some impressive K-BB marks in the upper minors, they’re all small samples and he only reached AAA for the first time at the age of 24 already in 2022. He’s thrown a total of 78 AAA innings.
DFS Notes: A protected, but still pitcher friendly environment sees the Marlins at four and a half runs, but the Nationals half a run lower. Only knowing what’s written above about Maldonado, you’re never really rushing out for Washington bats, but C.J. Abrams (116 wRC+, .205 ISO v RHP since last year, 167 wRC+ overall 2024) may be the exception. With Williams not being as much of a punching bag so far, I’m not looking to jam Marlins either with Luis Arraez’s 104 wRC+ in 2024 leading the projected lineup. I would strongly consider him and Jesus Sanchez (114 wRC+, .199 ISO v RHP since LY) as value plays.
Update 4:15 EST: 7.7% gain on the overnight due to the pitching change. Should have also noted that Maldonado has never started a game in his career and has only faced as many as nine batters in an outing this year.
Guardians @ Braves
Having two Logan Allens in the league once again (and both being left-handed) makes it difficult to tell who’s statcast info I’m pulling from now. At least they’re not both on the same team anymore. I know this one has produced just a 10.6 K-BB% and allowed two home runs in three of his five starts (nine barrels overall). The 18.8 HR/FB has his 5.06 ERA closest to a 5.25 FIP, though all other estimators are more than half a run lower. The fastball (47.9% usage) has a 49 PB grade, .342 wOBA and .361 xwOBA against. Maybe stop throwing it so much because all of his other pitches are graded better. Though, against the Braves it doesn’t much matter which pitch your Achilles heel is because they smash them all.
Opp wRC+: 120 (123 Home, 114 L7Days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 2.88
Chris Sale is finally healthy and dominant again at the age of 35. At least from a peripheral perspective, 21.4 K-BB%, 14.1 SwStr%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 31.3 Hard%. However, three of his four barrels have left the park and he’s stranded just 65.8% of his runners. The good news is that usually self corrects without much of, if any kind of, an adjustment. All estimators (even a 3.52 DRA) are more than three-quarters of a run below his 4.38 ERA and how’s a 3.31 Bot ERA with a 111 Stuff+ grade sound?
Opp wRC+: 143 (19.8 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.47
The line may be growing to a point where the large starting pitching edge may not be enough to justify it. Even with the unsustainable wRC+ against LHP, the Guardians have been a pleasant surprise offensively and have a great bullpen along with a defensive edge.
DFS Notes: Temps in the low 70s, but 10 mph wind in from center may make this park play neutrally, which is certainly enough for the Braves to be the top team on the board (5.17). With RHBs owning a .343 wOBA and .331 xwOBA against Allen since last year, the problem, as always, is merely affordability with Braves. Harris and Fletcher are the only two projected with a less than .200 ISO against LHP since last year. I have lukewarm interest in Sale, due to low Cleveland strikeout rates and almost no interest in Guardian bats (3.33), the exception being David Fry (154 wRC+ v LHP since LY) at low cost near the top of the projected order.
Update 4:25: And it has climbed to a point of minor action at +215 with their performance (even small sample) against LHP, along with Cleveland's defensive and bullpen edges. Albies back. Freeman (109, .196 for less than $3K) jumps to second and has some value for Cleveland with Fry dropping to fifth. Arias in for Gimenez gives them a RHB against Sale's non-splits, but also a high strikeout bat.
Rays @ White Sox
After an uneven couple of starts in the beginning, Zach Eflin has most recently shout out the Angels and Yankees of 12.1 innings without a walk or barrel and just 11 hard hit balls. How do you run a 20.2 K-BB% with a slightly below average strikeout rate? Don’t walk anybody. A 4.00 DRA non-withstanding, all Eflin’s other estimators sit below his 3.68 ERA. PitchingBot loves him (2.25 ERA) and Stuff+ is not so sure (96), but loves what he’s doing with what he has (108 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 65 (49 Home, 50 L7days)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.77
I read today that the Phillies are moving Spencer Turnbull to the bullpen in order to accommodate Taijuan Walker, who’s tossing 90 mph heat in rehab outings. That’s insane! Why mention this here? My other option is to talk about Chris Flexen, who doesn’t have an estimator below five. I probably should note that while batters from either side exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, RHBs are above .400, which is extra bad news against a Tampa Bay lineup that rarely includes more than a single LHB or two. Wait…32 Stuff+…is that even real??
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.65
I may have to lay the -220 Rays F5. Or at least find something to add to it.
DFS Notes: This is where Burnes’s competition comes from and I dare to say Eflin might even be more popular without rain concerns. Should we get the okay, I’m more interested in the lesser priced Eflin and might even assume some weather related risk here with potentially much lower ownership. The White Sox (2.92) are the only other team below three implied runs. Considering temps in the mid-50s with 16 mph winds in from right center, I’m less interest in Tampa bats (4.58) than I thought I would be against Flexen, but they’re still fine. Palacios, Rosario and Paredes all exceed a 140 wRC+ this season.
Update 5:25 EST: The weather risk here has decreased. The Rays going entirely right-handed against Flexen.
Reds @ Rangers
Graham Ashcraft likes to tease people that he can miss bats, but his swinging strike rate started at 14.1% this season and has dropped each time out, but his last effort was the first time it dropped below 12% (8%) and coincided with a velocity drop back to last year’s levels. Still, if he can even maintain his current 16.4 K-BB% with a 54.4 GB%, his 45.6% hard hit rate won’t matter much (just four barrels and home runs). Non-FIP estimators are all more than a run and a half below his 5.24 ERA (57.4 LOB%). Pitch modeling sees his as slightly above average as well.
Opp wRC+: 115 (18.2 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.06
While Nathan Eovaldi is coming off a pair of poor starts (11.1 IP – 54 BF – 8 ER – 2 HR – 8 BB – 9 K), but it’s fair to note they were in Houston and Atlanta and telling that the Rangers let him go three full times through the order on each occasion anyway. While he has just a 23.1 K% (and now 9.8 BB%), he’s generated a 15.1 SwStr% (16.9% last four starts). Estimators ranging from a 4.03 SIERA to a 4.30 DRA are quite a bit above his 3.30 ERA, but we should hold off on calling for regression until we see what happens with that swinging strike rate. PitchingBot (3.67 ERA) loves the splitter (33.3% usage, 62 grade).
Opp wRC+: 91 (27.5 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.07
DFS Notes: In a protected environment, where the Reds are still implied for just 3.7 runs, Nathan Eovaldi may be my favorite pitcher tonight in a nice bounce back start and hopefully most players aren’t taking into account his previous level of competition faced. I respect Texas bats and would certainly have ownership in mult-entry, but I think Aschcraft could be better than the .319 to .349 wOBA and xwOBA batters from either side have against him since last year, while he also generates ground balls on nearly half his contact.
Update 4:40 EST: Roof closed. CIN leaning into Eovaldi's reverse split w/ only three LHBs, but not really adding anyone of much consequence from the right-hand side (Fairchild, Espinal).
Yankees @ Brewers
Luis Gil has the right stuff (124 Stuff+), but can’t always direct it to the proper location, as illustrated by his 20.2 K%, but still league average 14.3 K-BB%. An 11.7 SwStr% is still above average, but pleads caution. He hasn’t allowed a barrel yet and just eight hard hit balls. Perhaps because batters are too busy thinking about diving out the way than taking their best swing. Interestingly, Imagine a that walk rate with a 2.14 xERA. PItchingBot (4.18 ERA) only give shim one above average grade (changeup 56) because they’re grading what you do with the stuff too.
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.12
A 14.9 K% is the main driver of estimators all above four, despite a 2.08 ERA (87.8 LOB%) for Colin Rea Also that just two of his six barrels have been home runs. A jack of all pitches, master of none, Rea throws six different pitches between 4.4% and 28.2% of the time without a single one reaching above a 47 grade via PitchingBot and an 85 Stuff+ overall.
Opp wRC+: 114 (9.5 K-BB%)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.63
DFS Notes: Another protected environment, this is likely a top three run environment tonight, which limits my interest in pitching with two good offenses, though Gil could always go off and be a low priced sleeper. The Braves have just a 4.08 team total, the Yankees surprisingly just 4.42 in this spot. With LHBs above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Rea since last year, I’m jamming in Soto (170 wRC+, .270 ISO v RHP since LY) where affordable and generally like all, but the projected bottom two in the lineup. Payamps and Megill have each thrown the last two days.
Update 5:30 EST: Roof closed. Stanton out.
Twins @ Angels
Still working off eight runs in 1.1 innings from his first start, Bailey Ober has allowed two runs over 17 innings with a 21.3 K-BB% since and may have had the highest single game fastball average velocity of his career last time out (92.8 mph). Despite an 88 Stuff+, Ober doesn’t have a single PitchingBot grade below 50 with a 3.43 Bot ERA and 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 1
B30: 3.17
Not only did Patrick Sandoval walk five Reds and allow seven runs in his last start, but his previously increased velocity dropped off to last year’s levels too. His 13.6 BB% overall carries a 9.7 K-BB%, which has carried a 6.75 ERA, despite just three barrels and a single home run. A .381 BABIP and 54.4 LOB% will favorably regress, while non-FIP estimators still range between a 4.23 xFIP and 4.64 xERA. There are some problems here and it’s never the changeup, but appears to be the curveball (10.5% usage, 39 PB grade) and four-seamer (29.3%, 43, .426 xwOBA). The Twins haven’t done much, but they have smashed four-seamers (0.83 wFA/C is third best) because they seem to prepare as if that’s all they’re expecting to see.
Opp wRC+: 102 (25 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.28
DFS Notes: Temperatures in the low 60s, but 20 mph winds out to right field make this a nice spot to look for bats in an already positive run and power friendly environment. That said, Ober for less than $7K against Trout (152 wRC+, .301 ISO v RHP since LY) and nut much is still a strong SP2 play ($8.5K on FD is more questionable) and one I may reconsider if Elfin remains dangerous. The Angels still have just a four run team total. The Twins are at four as well, but I’m less sold on Sandoval, despite the upside. He does cost just $7.2K on either site and wouldn’t be the worst selection on the board though. With RHBs at a .336 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against Sandoval since last year, Jeffers (156, .283) is not only one of my favorite value plays, but my top Catcher overall tonight. Griffin Jax (18) and Brock Stewert (31) have worked back to back days, but not with egregious pitch counts.
Update 5:40 EST: Both teams piling on the RHBs. Ober reverse split will face two LHBs, Sandoval massive split will face none.
Diamondbacks @ Mariners
Zac Gallen’s velocity bumped up to last year’s levels for the first time this year last time out. So, of course it was his worst outing of the season, as the Giants clobbered him for five runs, but he still struck out six with a 15.2 SwStr%. How has he maintained a 21.1 K-BB% with reduced stuff or allowed just three barrels with a 50.7% hard hit rate? Under these conditions, he doesn’t have an estimator below four and I’m all with it if the velocity and SwStr% are back to stay. It’s not just me. Via PitchingBot (5.13 ERA), Gallen’s knucklecurve (25.5%, 55 grade) is his only pitch above a 47 grade, while he carries a 94 Stuff+ mark.
Opp wRC+: 103 (28.6 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.06
Emmerson Hancock may be able to get by with a 16.7 K% if he continues to walk just 3.3% of the batters he faces when the expectation is sixth starter. Estimators ranging from a 4.14 SIERA to a 5.32 xERA are still well below his 6.00 ERA. Interestingly enough, despite the 88 Stuff+, the sinker (29.3% usage, 47 grade) the only of his four pitches that grades below average via PitchingBot (3.82 ERA). RHBs have pounded him for a .379 wOBA and .355 xwOBA in his short career with LHBs 40 or more points less.
Opp wRC+: 90 (but 7.8 K-BB%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.66
DFS Notes: In a protected and extremely negative run environment where neither team reaches four implied runs, it’s still difficult to be too interested in pitching because the Diamondbacks don’t strike out and Gallen is over-priced. That said, considering the upside in strikeouts the Seattle lineup affords, I would have some multi-entry exposure in hopes that Gallen is back after his last start. Considering how well RHBs hit Hancock, Walker (115 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Gurriel Jr. (103, .216) are the only above average bats from that side against same-handed pitching since last year, though the environment dampens their value.
Update 5:50 EST: Rojas hits at the top of the order.
Phillies @ Padres
That Aaron Nola’s last two starts have been dominant (15.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 16 K – 56 BF) comes with the caveats that they were against the Rockies and White Sox, both at home, and his velocity is down 1.7 mph form last year. Nola normally has estimators running below his ERA due to a difficult defense and ballpark, but the case this year is that only a 3.62 xERA is below four and closest to his 3.16 ERA. All six of his barrels have left the yard, but he’s also rocking the .217 BABIP and 85.9 LOB%. His 12.8 K-BB% Is also a career worst and eight points below his career average. PitchingBot is in line with the xERA (3.63 Bot ERA), still seeing a dominant curve (64 grade) and sinker (60 grade). The Padres are the sixth worst offense in the league (-1.22 wSI/C) against the latter pitch, by the way. A 98 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ paint the view of an average pitcher that his contact neutral estimators indicate.
Opp wRC+: 115 (19.6 K%) (Through Thursday)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.71
It’s becoming harder to deny there’s something off with Joe Musgrove beyond the 5.74 xERA that’s below his 6.73 xERA. He’s down 0.8 mph and a bit more than that in his last start. Musgrove said it’s normal for him early in the year, the numbers say it’s slightly lower. The good news is that 16.8 K% comes with an 11.4 SwStr% and he’s still shoving a 115 Stuff+ (but with a 99 Pitching+). However, PitchingBot (4.00 ERA) gives the heater a 39 grade, while batters are slugging .651 against it with a .472 xwOBA. He seems to know that’s the problem, throwing the pitch just 20.8% of the time, but it’s still his most thrown pitch, along with the curveball (106 of each). In fact, he’s thrown seven pitches 5.5% of the time or more in attempting to get by with whatever works.
Opp wRC+: 92 (up 3 points from yesterday with Harper back)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.85
DFS Notes: Temperatures in the upper 50s in an already pitcher friendly park boosts two normally quality pitchers, but I’m scared off both these arms tonight because I think you’re paying for that run environment more than strikeout upside here. That said, with both teams at 3.75 implied runs, I’m not at all interested in bats either. If forced to roster one player from this game…I’d probably make myself a sandwich instead…and then take Nola, praying for innings and run prevention.
Update 5:50 EST: Machado back. Merrill sits.
Pirates @ Giants
Written here before his first start on Friday…”I was shocked to see a 50 Future Value grade sitting on Quinn Priester’s Fangraphs page. They love the curveball (70 grade) and like the command potential (55). Everything else has an upside of par or worse. He pitched 50 innings last year with just a 3.8 K-BB% and a 47 Hard%, including 14 barrels (8.3%), despite 52.4% of his contact on the ground. In about 130 innings at AAA in three different stints, Priester has a 15 K-BB%. Projection systems are not impressed and forecast him around four and a half.” He went out and gave up three bombs to the Red Sox, striking out only two, but only one other batted ball off the ground.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.73
Saying that he does not yet have the feel for it, Kyle Harrison has reduced the usage of last year’s primary secondary pitch, a slurve, from 26.5% to 8.9% this year, though with a .402 wOBA and sub-25% whiff rate against it last season, perhaps it was a good omission. However, simply increasing the usage of his heater (down 0.6 mph) to 68% doesn’t seem to be working for him either (21.1 K%, 8.4 SwStr%). There is some good news though. It’s helped reduce his walk rate to 4.4% with estimators ranging from a 3.85 SIERA to 4.57 DRA. A .333 BABIP should regress somewhat and PitchingBot (3.87 ERA) gives the fastball a 56 grade. It’s allowed a .346 wOBA, but just a .260 xwOBA. Still, he needs some kind of secondaries that work with the overall package currently sitting at a 93 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.08
DFS Notes: If you’re buying into the scouting reports, Priester is an interesting SP2 in a pitcher friendly park with temps in the 50s. If you’re buying into the 4.65 team total for the Giants and Priester’s small sample major league stats, LaMonte Wade (132 wRC+, .168 ISO v RHP since LY) might be the top value play on the board and be in on several more very affordable Giants. Right now, that’s the angle I’m leaning into. Harrison may be too volatile for a cost above $8K, but there is some upside for him in the opposing lineup. I do like Edward Olivares (134, .308) for around $3K, despite Pittsburgh’s 3.85 team run total.
Update 7 EST: The Pirates failed to get their crappy lineup posted in time.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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