Tuesday was a bizarre night in MLB. Good pitchers were beaten down by bad offenses, bad pitchers went nuts, pitcher friendly environments turned hot and hitter friendly ones turned cold. Let's try to forget it and move on.
A little briefer for Wednesday, as time is short. Will try to update as information roles in.
All stats through Monday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, donations are welcome (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal), so that I can continue doing this and make the site more pleasant to look at.
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals
Jordan Montgomery was down two mph and one Scott Boras in his first start. It may take a few to get a read on him.
Opp wRC+: 83 (but 6.7 K-BB%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.97
Kyle Gibson throws his cutter (24.2%, 41 PitchingBot grade) and sinker (28.8%, 38) most often. The Diamondbacks are fourth (1.4 wFC/C) and second (0.94 wSI/C) against those pitches, respectively.
Opp wRC+: 91 (but 7.2 K-BB%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.09
Update (12:30 EST): A few things to note here. Slightly pitcher friendly weather with temps and wind. Jordan Walker has been optioned, so the Cards add another LHB (below .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Montgomery since last year) in Carlson with a 31 K% against LHP since last season. The Diamondbacks are treating this as a spring training game. Neither team's top relievers threw Tuesday. Corbin Carroll (77 wRC+) has been bumped down the lineup. Still not sure who Montgomery is, but we know who Gibson is and I think the D'Backs still have value at even money F5 now.
Mets @ Giants
Sean Manaea has walked six of his last 45 batters and has poor pitch model metrics without a single pitch graded above average, but his velocity ticked back up last game.
Opp wRC+: 102 (19.6 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.3
Blake Snell has just a 20.7 K% and has been shelled in all three of his starts, though he’s only walked five with three barrels. The stuff still appears to be there (3.67 Bot ERA, 111 Stuff+) with everything except his fastball graded 58 or higher, but he seems to be dropping too many fastballs (and some changeups) right down the pipe.
Opp wRC+: 121 (15.3 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.94
Update (2 EST): The fact that Snell is been scratched and a RHP (Walker) is now starting has changed the Mets lineup not a bit. Temps in the high 50s. The top three Met relievers (Diaz, Ottavino, Garrett) have had three off days in a row, while Doval threw five more pitches last night after 27 on Wednesday and Tyler Rogers has thrown 25 over the last two days as well.
Orioles @ Angels
Angels won’t be able to take much advantage of Dean Kremer’s platoon issues (.341 wOBA, .373 xwOBA since last year).
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -1
B30: 3.26
The closest estimator to Tyler Anderson’s 1.42 ERA is 2.75 runs away (4.17 xERA, 5.1 K-BB%, 10.7% Barrels/BBE).
Opp wRC+: 122 (121 Road, 154 L7days)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.31
Update (2:10 EST): Adell, Moniak and Sano all striking out more than 33% against RHP since last year, but Kremer just 18.1 K%, 7.7 SwStr%, 93.8 Z-Contact% and 13.9% Barrels/BBE this year. Which side will break (or fix)?
Red Sox @ Guardians
It might be Cooper Criswell or some sort of bullpen effort. If it’s the former, LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him over 39 innings since last year.
Opp wRC+: 105 (19.7 K%)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.51
Batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Carlos Carrasco since last season. He has a 3.44 ERA and 3.56 FIP because he’s somehow allowed just a single barrel (no home runs) with a 49 GB%, but 44.2% hard hit rate. Contact neutral estimators are closer to five (5.0 K-BB%). PitchingBot gives his fastball, down two mph, a 37 grade. The Boston lineup is like a box of chocolates these days.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.01
Update (3:46 EST); Weather similar to Wrigley. Can't believe I'm playing a Carrasco under this year, but here we are.
Phillies @ Reds
Spencer Turnbull is producing! It may not be 1.23 ERA good, but with a 25.9 K% and 5.9% Barrels/BBE, none of his estimators reach three. PitchingBot (3.65 ERA) thinks all of his pitches are at least average with the four-seam (37.1%, 58 grade) the only one much above and Stuff+ (109) agrees with the overall package. He’s changed his ordinary slider for a sweeper and is throwing it 30% of the time to good effect (3.3 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 86 (27.8 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.67
Nick Lodolo has returned spitting fire, striking out 16 of 46 batters with a 15.2 SwStr%, albeit against two weak offenses (White Sox, Angels). All of his pitches grade 55 or higher (3.09 Bot ERA), though the other pitch modeling system disagrees somewhat (99 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 117 (141 L7 days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.25
Update (4 EST): This line has rocketed from near even to CIN -148 now. Turnbull has been good. No Realmuto or Harper, but it's not like the Reds are killing RHP (up to 89 wRC+ now). No defensive or bullpen edge for Reds either and I don't think Lodolo's THAT much better. Still, I hate to be on the other side of a jump so large.
Brewers @ Pirates
I’m not sure what the Brewers are playing at here with Bryce Wilson. Sportsbooks don’t either. There’s no line, but will note he’s 74 sinkers this year with a 64 grade, while the Pirates are the fifth worst offense against such pitches (-1.21 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 86
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.7
Written here before his first start on Friday…”I was shocked to see a 50 Future Value grade sitting on Quinn Priester’s Fangraphs page. They love the curveball (70 grade) and like the command potential (55). Everything else has an upside of par or worse. He pitched 50 innings last year with just a 3.8 K-BB% and a 47 Hard%, including 14 barrels (8.3%), despite 52.4% of his contact on the ground. In about 130 innings at AAA in three different stints, Priester has a 15 K-BB%. Projection systems are not impressed and forecast him around four and a half.” He went out and gave up three bombs to the Red Sox, striking out only two, but only one other batted ball off the ground.
Opp wRC+: 123
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.65
A line just popped up for this game and I can't understand why both teams are -108 on FanDuel. Starting pitching is a bit of an unknown, but I can't see the Pirates having a significant edge here, while bullpens have very similar estimators. The Brewers have a major offensive edge and a defensive one too.
Update (4:15 EST): So now we have a double opener (Fleming) or some kind of opener/piggyback situation on both sides. I don't see how all of this helps the Pirates. Large 3.03% gain on the overnight from Brewers -108 (-122). Funny thing is that the Brewers actually jumped to +108 at one point last night before going back the other way.
Dodgers @ Nationals
Again, here before Landon Knack’s first start…”has had mostly upper 20s strikeout rates in the minors with Fangraphs slapping a 40 Future Grade on the already 26 year-old and nearly 27 prospect. If everything breaks right, pitch and command grades suggest he has the upside of being average with major projection systems projecting him around there too (4.25).” He was fine with half his contact on the ground, but also hard hit and a 9.3 SwStr%. He gets a rematch with the Nats here.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.21
In the same game, on the Nats’ side…” I'm not buying on Jake Irvin's 21.5 K% with just a 6.9 SwStr%. He had a knack for strikeouts without missing bats last year, but it's still a small sample and his CStr% isn't much better than average either. Therefore, I'm not buying on his contact neutral estimators around four either. The 4.73 xERA sounds more like it.” The strikeout rate is up to 23% with an 8.4 SwStr% after that start against the Dodgers and the xERA is down to 4.32. With PitchingBot (3.56) favoring everything he throws except the cutter (just 10.6%), I may have to reconsider.
Opp wRC+: 121 (11.6 BB%)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.55
Irvin has actual estimators about one-third of a run better than Knack projects and he just pitched very well against these Dodgers. There’s not even that large an offensive edge for the Dodgers against RHP (though it’ll probably increase from 11 points as the season goes on) and the Nationals have had the better bullpen (though they’re faltering late in Tuesday’s game right now). I’m going to have to side with the large road dog again. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network to get it quicker.)
Update (3:05 EST): 1.2% gain on WSH full game, but more than twice that for F5. Wonder why.
Tigers @ Rays
After writing this for his last start against in Minnesota…” Flaherty has a 14.6 SwStr%, as he’s struck out 20 of 79 batters with just three walks. He’s allowed a home run in every start, but just three barrels. A 4.13 FIP is his only estimator above four”, Jack Flaherty has finally payed off. He struck out 10 of those Twins and has his SwStr rate up to 15.1%, though he’s now hanging a 4.12 DRA as his only estimator above four. How could that outing have possibly made his DRA worse??
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 3
B30: 3.94
Tyler Alexander has struck out exactly four in each of his four outings with just 27.3% of his contact on the ground. With 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but 34.3% hard contact, Alexander has a 3.76 xERA, but all other estimators above four and a half. All his pitches grade above 50 (PitchingBot), though with just an 86 Stuff+ (106 Pitching+) making him a big bag of I don’t know, but I’m sure the Rays will have it all fixed soon.
Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.88
Update (4:20 EST): Another opener here (Armstrong). Flaherty's K-prop might be a bit low (5.5), but not a ton of Ks in this TB lineup. Nobody reaches 24% against RHP since last year.
Athletics @ Yankees
Walking 14% of the batters he’s faced, it really doesn’t matter what else Joe Boyle does. Even with just a single barrel, a 6.9 K-BB% ruins him. He’s not even showing the swing and miss he showed in the minors (9.3 SwStr%).
Opp wRC+: 111 (9 K-BB%)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.47
Clarke Schmidt has struck out seven and allowed one run in each of his last two starts. The difference was that he walked five Guardians and no Rays. The models still love the stuff (3.60 Bot ERA, 113 Stuff+) and now he’s showing us why (26.7 K%). A 4.23 xERA is his only estimator above four after three of his four barrels this year were surrendered last time out too.
Opp wRC+: 81 (28.1 K%)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.26
It won’t be comfortable, but this one is climbing to a point (and +200 would probably be that point) that the A’s might have some value here. And most of that value would be in the bullpen.
DFS Notes: A few notes on a complicated slate in general. Some of it is very obvious and the issue may be avoiding the obvious, like pitching in Minnesota with not only the two top pitchers on the board against highly strikeout prone offenses, but also one of two games where weather could play a significantly negative factor. The other is Wrigley which may make marginal starters viable. Offense is obviously Coors with subpar pitching and the Braves. We have limited information on several likely marginal starting pitchers tonight. My initial single entry lineup build was very difficult and is probably mostly filler until we get actual lineups.
Last night, the forecast suggested that winds were blowing in from right field last night, though the ball was jumping in that direction (three home runs). Today, the wind is blowing out slightly above double digits in that direction. I really like Clarke Schmidt here as a pivot off either Minnesota pitcher. I’m not saying he’s going to be better, but if ownership is going to be a problem, the A’s have the second lowest implied run total (3.33). The Yankees are fourth highest (second outside Coors) at 5.17. I don’t have any Yankees rostered in my single lineup currently, but Soto is the obvious top bat here (LHBs .369 wOBA, .354 xwOBA v Boyle since LY). His 187 wRC+ this season leads the projected lineup by 50 points (Judge 99). Miller and Ercig had the night off for the A’s last night, no prominent Yankee reliever threw even 10 pitches.
Update (4:30 EST): One small change from projected OAK LU that helps Schmidt in a couple of ways. Rooker in for Toro gives them three guys in first five with 34 K% against RHP since last year and also shifts the balance to 4 LHBs from 5 with Schmidt's massive platoon issue with LHBs.
Marlins @ Braves
Twenty-seven year old Kyle Tyler is a guy. A guy with two first names. Fangraphs slaps a 35+ Future Value grade on his page without an above average anything. I can’t fathom why projection systems have him below four and a half. Maybe because he’s mostly been a reliever, except for last year at AA. He’s come out of the pen twice at AAA this season without a start. Good luck kid. Here’s the Braves.
Opp wRC+: 133
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.21
Reynaldo Lopez has pretty successfully transitioned to a starting role, going exactly six innings in all three starts with only a single run allowed in his first. His velocity has been inching up with each start too. A 17.6 K-BB% checks out with just a single barrel, but also just a 9.6 SwStr%, while the pitch modeling metrics aren’t in love with him. None of his pitches grades above 50 (PB 4.49 ERA) with just a 96 Stuff+ (97 Pitching+). Maybe a 4.02 DRA (his worst estimator) has it right on this occasion.
Opp wRC+: 85 (73 Road, 78 L7days)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.53
DFS Notes: Weather not going to be much of a factor here and it looks like it’s Six Toe Sanchez instead of Kyle Tyler. Six Toe has more toes than innings this year. He’s been a single inning reliever, so maybe still Kyle Tyler? The Braves are the top non-Coors offense regardless. None of the top Miami relievers have thrown in two days, but that’s not much of a factor here. It’s whether you can afford Braves or not and I find it very difficult to, which should drop ownership in favor of cheaper Padres. The first eight in the normal Atlanta lineup against RHP all exceed a 100 wRC+ this season. Lopez is a bit too expensive here and won’t help you afford anyone.
Update (4:40 EST): Tromp in for D'arnaud. A couple of minor changes at the bottom of Miami LU (both 26 K% v RHP since LY) give Lopez a small K boost.
Astros @ Cubs
SpAghetti doesn’t throw exceptionally hard (94.6 mph avg in two starts) and doesn’t throw strikes (9.1% lowest walk rate above low A ball). He’s walked five of 38 batters against the Braves and Royals. Maybe he should just throw a few meatballs. He hasn’t given up a barrel yet. Fangraphs gives him a 40+ Future Value grade with a future projection of a swingman type. Aside from the fastball (55), the slider is his only other above average graded pitch (60) by Fangraphs. Stuff+ (64) is having none of it so far though.
Opp wRC+: 97 (126 Home, 112 L7days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.23
We know what Jameson Taillon is at this point and that’s a competent fourth starter. No need to draw this out. Projection systems project him around four and a half this season. He was a bit better than that for 18 Marlins in his debut, but that’s hardly the criteria we want to judge any pitcher against. He has a massive platoon split with LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA with RHBs below .300 since last year. That potentially helps him here, expected to face seven RHBs and the two LHBs are gonna smoke you no matter what anyway.
Opp wRC+: 111 (81 Road, 82 L7days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.13
DFS Notes: Near freezing with a near 10 mph wind in from left. Both teams are exactly at four implied runs. The lack of strikeouts makes Taillon still a slightly difficult roster, but not outrageous under these conditions and he does save money. SpAghetti saves even more (Cubs 23.3 K% v RHP) and is my current SP2. I’m pretty much off Houston bats, but could never call Yordan Alvarez (especially at lower ownership) a bad play.
Update (5:10 EST): No Bellinger. Maybe a slight increase to SpAghetti's strikeout rate.
Blue Jays @ Royals
Yariel Rodriguez has faced 16 batters in each of his two starts, but increased his pitch count from 66 to 83. He’s struck out 13 of them with all of his offerings grading above 55, though Stuff+ (97) is less optimistic.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.65
Alec Marsh tosses it right down the middle and hopes for the best. Most of the time it doesn’t happen. Last time out, it did against the Orioles. He’s struck out just 17.8% of batters, but at least he doesn’t walk many (5.6%), though I don’t know how he’s only allowed three barrels. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and the changeup (54) is the only one of his five pitches to grade even average.
Opp wRC+: 103 (10.6 K-BB%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.52
DFS Notes: Will Yariel throw enough innings to have value at $8K? If he’s up over 90 pitches, maybe, but it’s not an easy spot and weather shouldn’t be much of a factor here. The Toronto pen is decently rested too, which doesn’t encourage thoughts about their starter. The Royals have a 4.32 team run total, the Jays 4.68 and I’m loving Toronto bats here. Vlad Jr. (114 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP since LY) is the guy I most want to roster here, but fail to see any particularly poor values here. Springer (104, .144) and Schneider (131, .194) are value play considerations for me here too. RHBs have a .371 wOBA and .458 xwOBA against Yariel in his very small sample. It might be something to consider.
Update (5:20 EST): Some line movement towards Blue Jays. Nearly too much. Also some lineup changes. You can now go cheap Jays & affordable Padres with some quality pitching. Or just pay up for Braves.
White Sox @ Twins
Despite 12 earned runs, three home runs and five walks over his last 7.2 innings, Garrett Crochet still has shining peripherals with a 26.9 K-BB% and only even allowed one barrel over that span. He’s allowed five home runs, but only three barrels for the season. That’s the difference between his 3.88 FIP and all other estimators more than half a run lower. He’s also only stranded 55% of runners. PitchingBot (2.59 ERA) grades all three of his offerings 58 or better with a 111 Stuff+. All three pitches also exceed a 30% whiff rate and sub-.250 xwOBA. He’s had some issues locating the slider recently though.
Opp wRC+: 80 (25 K%) (Includes Tuesday)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.78
Despite remaining up over a mph on his heater, Joe Ryan is still leaking it a bit too much over the middle of the plate, which has set him up for six barrels (10.2%). Just two of them have left the yard, but he’s paying in other ways (.333 BABIP, 63.1 LOB%). However, his peripherals are near immaculate (29.1 K-BB%, 24 IFFB%, 25.8 Z-O-Swing%, 32.2% hard hit rate overall) and aside from a 3.30 DRA, every other estimator is below three. The fastball grades a 65 via PitchingBot (2.64 ERA). He has a surprisingly low 89 Stuff+, but 106 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 67 (76 Road, 58 L7days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.17
Able to now factor in a weather report that includes temperatures in the mid-50s and a light breeze blowing in from right field, I don’t know how either of these inept offenses is going to be able to overcome a pair of potentially dominant pitchers. My only concern is the Chicago bullpen on the total (u6.5).
DFS Notes: Pitching…Pitching. Pitching. Pitching!! Who won’t have either or both of Ryan and Crochet? Players who want to pay up for Braves? I have almost no interest in bats here (the top of the Minnesota lineup may still have some value). The White Sox have a paltry 2.7 team total with the Twins below four as well. The Chicago bullpen had three of its top four relievers on the depth chart throw at least 19 pitches last night, which may help lengthen Crochet here too. Crochet costs $300 less than Schmidt on DK, but $300 more on FD. Ryan is the most expensive pitcher on the board for good reason.
Update (4:50 EST): A few minor bottom of the lineup changes for each team. MIN is now entirely right-handed with a few less strikeouts. 3-1 Twins. Book it! (No, please don't)
Mariners @ Rangers
Throwing a few more sweepers and spiltters last time out, Bryce Miller struck out seven Reds with a single walk. The 4.22 DRA is his only estimator outside a 3.43 (xERA) to 3.67 (FIP) range with a 26.1 K%. He’s allowed seven barrels, but only 22 hard hit balls overall (36.1%). All pitches grade 53 or better (PitchingBot 3.15 ERA with a 105 Stuff+), but the splitter still sits atop the pile (63). Small sample, but the Rangers have been fourth best against splitters (2.59 wFS/C), so I could see him potentially dialing it back again, but what would be the replacement here? Texas has struggled against sliders (-0.8 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 112 (18.1 K%) (Includes Tuesday)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.61
After striking out just five of his first 40 batters, Jon Gray has 20 of his last 48 with a 15.5 SwStr%. A 93.6 mph fastball in his last start (he bumped up in a five batter relief appearance since then) might have been the lowest single game of his career. It’s basically the slider doing the work (51 PB grade) and also that those two starts were against the A’s and Tigers. It’s questionable whether he can continue the excellence against the Mariners, a better slider hitting team (-0.4 wSL/C – most teams are in the negative).
Opp wRC+: 106 (28.1 K% v RHP, but 109 Road wRC+ and 146 L7days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.23
DFS Notes: The roof was open on Tuesday night. This generally increases run scoring by about 15% and homers a bit more. Of course this depends on the weather too, but they rarely open the roof unless it’s a near perfect day. The Mariners got two in the first and two more in the third. That was the entire output for the game. Assuming closed roof, Miller might still be too expensive in a tough spot. Gray isn’t as expensive, but do you believe he can repeat his recent performance against an actual offense? It’s a risk. The Mariners have a 4.32 team total, the Rangers slightly above (4.68). LHBs have a .358 wOBA and .382 xwOBA against Miller since last year, but just a .212 wOBA this year. They’re also at .334/.355 against Gray (.395 wOBA this year). I like Crawford (132 wRC+, .189 ISO v RHP since LY) as a top value play overall and an interesting pivot off Kim for nearly the same price. Neither team has significant bullpen concerns.
Update (5:30 EST): Roof closed, so probably be a shootout tonight. Small LU change for M's. Raleigh out and Rojas up to 6th. Not entirely trusting Gray's renaissance against two awful offenses, think SEA +120 or better (F5) is too much.
Padres @ Rockies
Not much to say here. I have no idea how Coors treats knuckleballs. Matt Waldron has a near league average 12.8 K-BB%, but has allowed seven barrels with just two going out, which explains the difference between a 3.76 FIP and 4.68 xERA that matches his 4.74 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .315 and .345 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year .
Opp wRC+: 87 (20.1 K-BB%, 7.2 HR/FB) (Includes Tuesday)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.84
The Rockies are throwing TBD here, which probably stands for Ty Blach Duh. He threw 78 innings for them in this swingman type role last year, but just a single inning so far in 2024. Blach has a career 6.0 K-BB%, while RHBs have smoked him above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 102 (3.6 K-BB%...assuming a LH starter)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.22
DFS Notes: The Rockies are at 5.2 implied runs, the Padres a full run higher. McMahon (107) and Jones (116) are the only above average Colorado bats against RHP since last year. I’m still not on Colorado bats for single entry, but you can certainly justify them tonight and need exposure in multi-entry. The problem on the other side is that certain San Diego bats are affordable and even Bogaerts (113 wRC+, .166 ISO v LHP since 2023) is affordable too, while having very little platoon split. Kim, Campusano and Tatis all exceed 140 and .200 as well and will face Blach at least once, maybe twice. Profar (138 wRC+ this year overall) costs just $4K on DK, $3.5K on FD. I’m assuming ownership somewhere around or even above 40% for some of these guys, but what do I know? The Rockies threw their top relievers last night, but none for more than 16 pitches over the last two days.
Update (5:55 EST): Nolan Jones out/Jake Cave in. San Diego has messed with the entire bottom of their lineup, probably giving us even more cheaper value.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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