Just a few things I've been thinking about for Opening Day, which aren't covered in my Action Network article, which should be out either later tonight or early tomorrow.
Yankees @ Giants
I'd be less concerned about Fried's spring training numbers if he hadn't also tanked the start of the season each of the last two years. Still, he had nothing to prove in March and he pitches in one of the most suppressive parks in the league in March weather. He'll probably be fine at some point.
Pirates @ Mets
Skenes is Skenes. Like I said yesterday about my NL Cy Young pick, Only Wheeler had a higher K=BB than Skenes 23.7% in the NL last year.
My concerns about Freddy Peralta are more season long than this game, though the Pirates did upgrade their lineup to competent this season. The biggest problem for the Mets' staff last year was walks, which shortened outings and overwhelmed the bullpen. Freddy is probably the best five and dive pitcher in the majors, but he doesn't actually solve any of those problems.
I believe the Mets might have the best Opening Day winning percentage of all time?
White Sox @ Brewers
Roof will almost certainly be closed (there's actually a hotline you can call on the Brewers website), which makes this one of the most negative run environments in the league (92 Park Run Factor Statcast 3 year). This was really the only total I considered for OD, but it dropped from 8.5 to 8.0.
I am a bit concerned about Shane Smith's pre-season numbers too. Plus, while I'd expect the Miz to dominate the White Sox with a strong pen behind him, he's also a fairly volatile young arm. There's also the recognition that 8.5 is one of the toughest unders to play because 4-4 in extras you lose, even 3-3 many times with ghost runners. I'm playing it cautious and skipping here.
Nationals @ Cubs
I believe both these pitchers have wide ranges of outcomes and I'm surprised to see a hitter friendly forecast at Wrigley on Opening Day.
By the way, I'm still following Keven Roth's forecasts. He made an announcement on Twitter the other day, but I've also had a running dialogue with the operator of mlbstartingnine.com & weathermlb.com. He's been very receptive to feedback and has made a number of upgrades this season.
Twins @ Orioles
Two big questions in this one?
Is Joe Ryan fully healthy. He did have an injury issue early in March, but did return and seemed healthy last week. May effect his workload here.
Can Trevor Rogers sustain last year's breakout?
Red Sox @ Reds
If neither gets hurt, there's probably something around a 50% chance that either Skubal or Crochet is your AL Cy Young winner. He goes from one hitter friendly park to another here. Matt McLain probably wins March MVP. Let's see if it translates to a bounce back or real breakout season.
Andrew Abbott is perhaps the most perplexing pitcher in the league and he was barreled 10 times (17.3%) this pre-season with a 92.3 mph aEV. He'll probably end up shutting the Red Sox out.
Angels @ Astros
I've been banking on the downfall of the Astros the last few years and last year they finally started to show their age. If they can count on anything this year though, it's probably Hunter Brown.
My lying AI (Copilot) told me that Yordan Alvarez's swing path should be an absolutely nightmare for Jose Soriano's pitch mix. I know that last season was destroyed by injury, but someone recently pointed out Alvarez's slight decline each of the few years before that and I have trouble unseeing it though. He'd still probably be one of my top DFS plays for Thursday still.
Tigers @ Padres
Skubal should be the nuts in this spot, right? Padres lineup that should be feeling the pain of Preller's previous aggressiveness with a light farm system and aging players on big contracts.
Cited this many times last season, but Pivetta's K-BB actually decreased from his two years in Boston (still a very strong 19.4%), but the park was such a significant upgrade that he had his best year. His Barrels increased to 10.9% and his HR/FB dropped from 15+ to 9.7.
Rays @ Cardinals
Despite finishing with a 2.76 ERA, I feel that Drew Rasmussen was one of the more under-rated pitchers in the league in 2025 because the Rays never let him go deep into games (150 IP). His 3.48 xERA is still very good.
If he's healthy this year, Ivan Herrera is going to show the league what he can do. I'm also curious to see if Jordan Walker's trip to Driveline pays off. I've read some positive things.
Liberatore had a monster March (30.4 K-BB%), but my lying AI also loved Junior Caminero's swing path here. Terrible power park until it warms up though.
Rangers @ Phillies
Already marked this one on Action Network and the line has climbed from -135 to -150 since. Sanchez would have been my second NL CY pick. Eovaldi is a 36 year old pitcher coming off a career year with lots of recent injury issues. Largest baserunning gap on the Opening Day slate in this one, in favor of the Phillies
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
You'll be able to check up my first Action Network write up on this one later tonight or tomorrow.
Guardians @ Mariners
While the roof is open 75% of the time in Seattle, they don't actually tell use when the other 25% will be, but I'd assume a forecast with temps in the 40s would present one of those times. And when that roof is closed, the 77 Park Run Factor over the last three years is easily the lowest in the majors. In fact, the second lowest PRF in the league is Seattle with the roof open (83).
Logan Gilbert was my AL CY pick. Among those with at least 130 innings pitched last year, only Tarik Skubal (27.8%) and Zack Wheeler (27.7%) had a higher K-BB% than Logan Gilbert (26.5%).
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