My first assignment for Action Network was to make some 2026 predictions. Just straight picks without support. Which is great because I did virtually no futures prep this pre-season. Keeping that in mind, I'm still going to do my best to explain those picks below.
AL Champions: Seattle Mariners
Fangraphs depth charts project only four teams with more fWAR than the Mariners and only one (the Dodgers) more than one full fWAR above them. They may have a gap to fill at second base with the departure of Polanco and the corner outfield spots may not be strengths, but they're projected to be at least average at every positions with superstars behind the plate and in center field.
While the park may hide this, the Mariners actually have the best team wRC+ in the American League over the last three years (109), just a single point behind the Yankees (110).
And while all teams fortunes depend somewhat on health, a healthy Seattle starting five may be the best in the majors. They may be able to start a Cy Young contender in every game of a three game series. The Mariners also have the top bullpen FIP projection (3.88) among the Fangraphs depth charts.
NL Champions: New York Mets
World Series Winner: New York Mets
While it's no surprise that I'm a Mets sufferer...er, fan, most long time readers know I don't usually play Mets futures. This is not a homer pick, but can be completely explained in this post:
AL MVP: Bobby Witt Jr.
The obvious choice is Judge and I also almost went Roman Anthony here (look at his hard hit rate), but I split the middle with the man who has the second most fWAR in the AL over the last two years. Witt is exactly three win behind Judge, but also exactly four wins above the next best player in that time frame (Raleigh).
NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
As much as you want to pick some one else, he hits AND PITCHES! And does both at an elite level. Unless the voters have some kind of bias towards always handing him MVPs, someone would have to have a Barry Bonds type season to dethrone him unless Ohtani missed significant time.
AL CY: Logan Gilbert
Here's where I get to go a little bit off the beaten path. Among those with at least 130 innings pitched last year, only Tarik Skubal (27.8%) and Zack Wheeler (27.7%) had a higher K-BB% than Logan Gilbert (26.5%).
NL CY: Paul Skenes
Maybe Cristopher Sanchez or even Jesus Luzardo. I thought about Yamamoto too, but then considered last year's workload could hurt him a bit. Logan Webb is the only other pitcher in the National League who I haven't mentioned who also had a K-BB% above 20% last year and is also healthy to start this season. Wheeler was the only NL pitcher to finish ahead of Skenes (23.7%).
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