Monday 10/13 LCS Thoughts & Analysis

Mariners @ Blue Jays

While the Mariners haven’t yet confirmed a Game Two starting pitcher, it almost certainly will be either Luis Castillo or Logan Gilbert. Both would be on full rest if they hadn’t pitched on Saturday. The former threw 15 pitches, while the latter threw 34. Castillo, with more than one day’s rest, would be the more obvious choice, except that I think the Mariners might want to avoid pitching him on the road. While the right-handed Jays may be a bit more dangerous than the left-handed contingent, LHBs had a .405 wOBA against Castillo on the road this year, as compared to .304 at home.

My suspicion is that they’d accept a bit of a disadvantage here if they win Game One to gain more of an advantage with Gilbert at home in Game Three (33.5 K-BB%, .226 wOBA allowed at home this year) if they win game one, but they probably wouldn’t want to go down 2-0 and are more likely to pitch Gilbert in Game Two if they lose Game One. That’s just my best guess though.

I’ll update this section when we have more information.

Either way, they’ll likely face the same lineup Miller faced in Game One, averaging a 111 wRC+ and .182 ISO vs RHP this year with a 166 wRC+ in four post-season games so far.

While the Blue Jays will be returning Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer to the ALCS roster, giving them four starters, they are rightfully turning to the rookie with all of four major league starts to his name, including Game Two Divisional Series dominance of the Yankees to start the second game of the ALCS.

Trey Yesavage was more Ye Savage than Yes Average when he struck out 11 of the 18 Yankees he faced over 5.1 no-hit innings last Sunday. Bringing his 94.7 mph heater at 19 inches of iVB, an inch below his regular season average, Yesavage generated 11 of his 18 whiffs on just 29 splitter thrown and then another five on just 14 sliders. His 45 CSW% (Called + Swinging Strike) was pure dominance.

In three starts during the regular season, Yesavage walked seven of 62 batters, but struck out 16 with a 15.5 SwStr% that suggests bigger things may be possible. His 64.5 HardHit% was an issue, especially if he’s going to continue walk batters the way he has in the minors (10.5% combined), but we didn’t see it against the Yankees because they only put six balls in play.

The likely Seattle lineup should be the same as Game One, unless the Mariners want to flip some things around and play Garver over Canzone, considering RHBs had a .352 wOBA and .404 xwOBA against Yesavage in his small regular season sample, while LHBs were below .265. If not, the starting nine should average a 127 wRC+ and .205 ISO vs RHP that’s a bit superior to their Toronto opponents. This is likely disguised a bit by a tougher home park. I wouldn’t take their 66 wRC+ in the Divisional Series too series when they had to face Skubal twice.

I make Gilbert one-third of a run better than Yesavage, but Castillo one-third of a run worse (yes, the math works out to Gilbert being about two-thirds of a run better than Castillo at this point) with the major edge the home team has here coming from defense (league’s best against one of the worst). Both teams are suboptimal base runners with the Seattle bullpen’s superiority probably a bit exaggerated using only post-season numbers, but an edge none the less.

With temperatures around 60, expect the roof to remain closed in Toronto, a near neutral 98 Park Run Factor (Statcast Three Year). Ben May behind the plate leans slightly hitter friendly.

Should we get Gilbert on Monday, I make the game about even with Toronto a small (-120 ish) F5 favorite and a total around eight. Should it be Castillo, I’d have the Jays -120ish and -140ish with a total a bit above 8.5.

For the series, I see the Mariners as small favorites (written early during Game One) with the deeper rotation and bullpen and likely the better offense with Toronto’s only real edge being the defense, though it is a large one and they do have the extra home game if it goes seven. If the Mariners come out of Toronto with at least a split of the first two, I can certainly see them coming back just needing to win one, assuming the series gets back to Toronto at all. A tough fought seven game series would not surprise me either.

Post season bullpen stats...

Dodgers @ Brewers

Blake Snell is both the only confirmed pitcher for this game and the only pitcher on the day who has started two post-season games already. After walking four and striking out two in each of his first two starts for the Dodgers, Snell hit the IL. In nine regular season starts after returning, he posted a 24 K-BB%, hitting 40% three times and 33% as well. His pitch modeling is best on Monday’s board, while a 3.64 SIERA is his only estimator reaching three and a half. Snell also managed to keep nearly half his contact on the ground (48.7%) with just a 34 HardHit%.

His Wild Card start against the Reds couldn’t have gone much better. The fastball up nearly a mph, maintaining it’s 18 inch iVB, Snell generated 19 whiffs on 91 pitches, including 15 of the 20 swings against his changeup (31 Z-Contact%). He struck out nine of 26 batters with just a single walk and 10 of 16 batted balls on the ground.

He followed that up with six shutout innings against the Phillies in Game Two of the Divisional Series. He did walk four, but struck out nine and allowed just a single hit. Snell’s velocity was up even further (1.4 mph) from his season average with an added inch of iVB (19), helping him to generate whiffs on 23 of the 42 swings against him, nine each with the slider and changeup, which he only threw 26 and 23 times respectively.

Snell did have a bit of a split this year, but held batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA. The Brewers are no stranger to facing southpaws this post-season, facing three against the Cubs and having to prepare for the potential of Imanaga again in Game Five. Projecting a similar lineup averages a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs LHP this year and a 109 wRC+ in the five game NLDS.

Considering their bullpen issues with only Sasaki and maybe Vesia being trusted at this point, the Dodgers are going to give a lot of leeway to their starters, especially in the first game of a potential seven.

I don’t know that a single starter approach is going to get the Brewers through two larger series, let alone the Dodgers, but Brandon Woodruff isn’t coming to save them in this round and the Brewers have mentioned going with an opener again. It doesn’t seem sustainable. Quinn Priester faced just seven Cubs in his Game Three start. It was a disaster without even a single ground ball of the four in play. A stark contrast to a season in which 56.1% of his contact was on the ground.

The peripherals have been a bit streakier (19.7 K-BB% L5 starts, 12.3% prior nine outings, 25.6 K-BB% in four starts before that). Priester was barreled up just 34 times (7.4%) with a 39.4 HardHit%. Posting a 12.6 K-BB% overall, Priester wouldn’t have an estimator above four if not for 18 of his barrels leaving the park (4.01 FIP) and the worst pitch modeling on the board (should he even be pitching on Monday).

By wOBA, Priester had a 27 point standard split. By xwOBA, 43 points. In the NLDS, I suggested the Cubs were better off planning for Priester and dealing with Quintana than the other way around and it’s the same for the Dodgers, with Max Muncy really being the only guy to be platooned out. This projected lineup has a 112 wRC+ and .204 ISO against RHP this season and a 112 average wRC+ over six post-season games.

The full Dodger rotation should have a massive edge on whatever the Brewers decide to do. While Milwaukee would have the bullpen edge once you go deeper than closer, they have to be careful or wearing that bullpen out. The Dodgers have the clear lineup advantage, despite the teams having similar offensive numbers on the season, especially when the Brewers are at home. They also have large base running and defensive edges with the extra home game if needed. I still believe the Dodger pitching depth might be too much to overcome in this series, unless the Brewers can jump them for two in Milwaukee and somehow get Peralta deep into a game to give their relievers some rest.

With temperatures likely to dip below 60 before the game is over, I expect the roof to be closed in Milwaukee, making it the second most negative run environment in baseball (92 Park Run Factor) with home plate umpire John Libka exactly as slightly pitcher friendly as Ben May is.

For Game One, I project something near even both F5 and for the full game with a total around 7.5. That is, if Priester follows the opener. If it’s Quintana, I project the Dodgers as small favorites, close to -120. However, we won’t know that, so I’m going to side with Brewers with less confidence than I would if I knew the actual pitching particulars for them.

MIL +128 (FD) 0.5u

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

It's crazy to see the two pitchers with the best pitch modeling, have the worst pure pitch run value matchups. Which is why I don't like to rely on just pitch run values.